Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Physiology & Medicine => Topic started by: scientizscht on 22/09/2022 23:14:07
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Hello
How can the estimate a graph like this? You can see they claim that the France population will plateau by 2040 and start declining afterwards. There is absolutely no French historic trend like that. Any idea how they can come up with such prediction?
https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/france-population
Thanks!
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Because we've already reached Peak Child.
(From ~21mins)
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We know that the rate of reproduction declines as a population becomes wealthier and women become educated, but this may be offset by immigration and increased longevity. All of these factors can be estimated from analogous societies or by local extrapolation. But since none of them can be precisely predicted for a given geographical area, the answer lies in the realm of economics, and any economist will tell you that there are no wrong answers, just incomplete questions.
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I t is all based on predictions based on the data that we have. But the trend/prediction can and (has been proven) to be possible to change with some Human Will.
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I read the research that while increased wealth and education have generally been associated with lower fertility rates, other factors like immigration and longer lifespans can offset these trends. Ultimately, the answer to this question lies in economics, often characterized by uncertainty and incomplete information. However, predictions and trends are not set in stone. And I use https://edubirdie.com/examples/immigration/ (https://edubirdie.com/examples/immigration/) for getting a more certain opinion and conclusion about some data on the population. Immigration is such a typical process now, and the essay examples I check explain and show clearly the instability of some economics. The research also shows the problems that may appear. So it is easier to predict any population decline or growth with concrete and reliable research and analysis.
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...lower fertility rates, other factors like ... longer lifespans can offset these trends
The people with the longer lifespans (eg those aged 60+) do add to the population, but don't add much to the fertility rate.
So a population shifts to an older demographic, which:
- Is living longer than in previous decades (despite the slight drop in life expectancy over the COVID years)
- Is earning less income
- Requires more care (a need for more of the workforce to be employed in elder care, and less in traditional productivity work)
- Requires a higher rate of tax on workers to support them in retirement
- Is producing fewer people of working age (eg ages 18-60)
- This stresses government budgets
- hence the recent riots in France over proposals to raise the age of eligibility for a government pension
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The older generation have paid taxes and/or invested in productive industries throughout their longer and healthier working lives and have therefore earned every penny of their pension.
And reduced fertility (or at least delayed reproduction) means fewer 0 - 18 year olds requiring maternity and pediatric services, education,etc., and a quicker return to work for their mothers, so overall the working fraction of the population and hence the tax take actually increases if you reduce the birthrate.