
From  Richard Williams <[email protected]> 
To  [email protected], [email protected] 
Subject  Re: st: Predicted probabilities after oprobit w/robust standard errors 
Date  Fri, 02 Jun 2006 17:14:10 0500 
At 02:40 PM 6/2/2006, Nick Winter wrote:
No.Well put. And to try it one other way  lets say a particular case has a predicted probability of 30% of being in category 1. But, that 30% is itself an estimate. The 95% confidence interval for it might run from, say, 24% to 36%.
You are confusing the (sampling) variance of the various estimates, with the variance of the underlying distribution. The latter is normalized to one regardless of the technique used to estimate the sampling variances.
NW
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