[RD (OP)]

Why the consistent annual dip in deaths in August ? ...


ONS.png (75.89 kB . 1024x711 - viewed 5253 times)

I can only think of school-holidays.
less road-traffic because of 0 school-runs => less road deaths ?.
Less transmission of infectious disease by children, (because not crowded in school) ?.
People snuffing-it on holiday in a different country, so not counted ?.

[Bored chemist]

Good question.
I guess it's related to this
https://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2015/aug/04/black-wednesday-share-stories-day-junior-doctors-start-work

 I'd also like to know why nobody dies at new year. There's also (I think) a drop at the end of the financial year.

The blue line for 2020 illustrates what the Tory government is calling a success.

[RD (OP)]

I'd also like to know why nobody dies at new year....

A big drop, but not "nobody": the vertical scale starts at about 7000.

Possibly the dips are artefacts corresponding to when the coroners are on holiday,
with the stiffs spending extra time in the morgue until they are processed.

[Petrochemicals]

It happened during spanish flu too, (although several times), there was a christmas lull.

Also

Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance week 14 (2019) report

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792751/Weekly_report_mortality_week_14_4_April_2019.pdf

Shows very different figures

[RD (OP)]

“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

[Petrochemicals]

“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

Yep,  thats 6000 more than mid march on average, and 2000 more than the 201718 flu. Lots less than the big freezes of 1945 and 1950. Less than the french heatwave. The only question is how far  has the corona spread ?

[alancalverd]

I suspect the usual problem with death statistics: they are recorded, not actual deaths. The graph is very fine-grained, to the extent that you can pick out a specific day on each curve. The August dip seems to correspond exactly with a bank holiday. You have five days in which to register a death, so very few will be registered on the bank holiday when most young people (those more likely to be making the registration) are not at home.

This also explains the New Year dip, particularly as the registration period is 8 days in Scotland, where the whole country shuts down for Hogmanay. The Easter dip (BC's "financial year" dip) is broad and fuzzy, because the bank holiday is a variable feast and includes Friday. But I'm intrigued by the huge dip around 16 June 2019 - can anyone remember what happened? 

Despite the Grauniad's claim that "research shows a 6% increase in patient death rates", "Black Wednesday", when junior doctors start their clinical postings, shows no significant fluctuation at the beginning of August. IIRC there's plenty of hilarity among the nurses as the newbies try to find the toilet and the cafeteria, but not a lot of serious errors, and elective surgery is at a minimum during school holidays. It may be true that 6% more patients die in August, but that is because there are fewer patients overall in hospital, so deaths of patients are not diluted by minor illnesses and surgical recovery, but overall deaths remain normal.

[RD (OP)]

This data corresponds with peak COVID-19 deaths in the UK ...

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.

Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14..

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020


April-10.jpg (98.96 kB . 1200x844 - viewed 4029 times)
NB: The vertical scale does start at zero on this graph, (unlike this one).

[RD (OP)]

London on its own is much worse: deaths are almost 3x normal ...


London.jpg (58.77 kB . 1024x727 - viewed 4078 times)

[Petrochemicals]

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.

What the hell happened on the millenium them ? Was it the antichrist ? I may well start praying yet

[RD (OP)]

What the hell happened on the millenium them ? Was it the antichrist ? ...

I'm guessing 2000 was when they began recording deaths in this way: weekly rather than monthly,
rather than 2000 being apocalyptic.

[alancalverd]

London on its own is much worse: deaths are almost 3x normal ...

Any idiots who are not convinced to avoid close contact, should note what happens when you pack lots of people into buses and trains. Other cities have their rush hours but London is unique for the duration, density and radius of its human tide. You might find a similar effect in Birmingham but the tide is probably too small to detect the effect elsewhere.

[RD (OP)]

Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined since 


17th April 2020.jpg (61.64 kB . 1024x721 - viewed 3608 times)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020

[alancalverd]

I think not:

Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths; this compares with 6,213 (33.6% of all deaths) in Week 15.

But I repeat my caution: registered cause of death is an opinion clouded by circumstance, fashion and politics. Death is a fact. The best estimate of the impact of a novel cause of death is the raw difference between this week's figure and that from a year ago.  Using that equation and the current figures, the discrepancy between recorded and probable COVID deaths is about 30%.

[Petrochemicals]

Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined since 


17th April 2020.jpg (61.64 kB . 1024x721 - viewed 3608 times)

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020

They are worried about the lack of medical admissions for heart attacks strokes etc. Cancer referals are also down to 20 percent of levels last year, i believe. I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levels, but without treatment a greater proportion will probably pass away in all things. They do say that when people stop there work and relax that they often sucuumb to a heart attack then.

[Bored chemist]

Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined since 

Did someone come back to life, or was their death reclassified?

[alancalverd]

I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levels

Sadly, no. All elective surgery has stopped (to release intensive care facilities) and anything that can be treated by a general practitioner or nursed outside of a hospital, is, because hospital staff are reduced and overworked. Not that there's a great surplus of GPs and community nurses.....

[Petrochemicals]

I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levels

Sadly, no. All elective surgery has stopped (to release intensive care facilities) and anything that can be treated by a general practitioner or nursed outside of a hospital, is, because hospital staff are reduced and overworked. Not that there's a great surplus of GPs and community nurses.....

Elective surgery is not emergency is it ?!

[RD (OP)]

Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined since

Did someone come back to life, or was their death reclassified?

That ONS graph is death from ALL causes up to 17th April.
The data on deaths specifically from COVID-19 is more recent ...


UK peak COVID deaths ~16 April.png (125.59 kB . 700x500 - viewed 3389 times)

[Bored chemist]

I hate to be the one to break the bad news.
That doesn't mean there are fewer dead people.
It means the number of dead people is still getting bigger- but more slowly.
The number of deaths has not declined.