Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Cells, Microbes & Viruses => Topic started by: Andrew K Fletcher on 09/08/2008 18:44:33
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Have a theory on Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks Corresponding with unusually wet weather in the United Kingdom.
Made a prediction for the last outbreak of F&M based on the widespread floods. The flooded areas were affected and this was related to the location of Pirbright Labs and localised virus sources. Nevertheless, the cattle were exposed to severe floods, high humidity which brings the animals immunity and temperature down to a level that enables infection to take place.
I Now want to stick my neck out and make another prediction.
I predict that Foot and Mouth Disease will plague the farming industry once again due to this unusually wet summer. Swine vesicular Fever and Blue-tongue also follow a similar pattern in relation to damp weather.
It is so wet here in Devon that Truffles have been found in gardens according to local news.
Already, people with skin conditions including eczema and psoriasis, are reporting increased problems.
Dry air is required to increase circulation. High Humidity compromises circulation causing a breakdown in tissue in hoof and mouth as the animal’s immune system and body temperature is lowered leaving it prone to infectious organisms.
Sudden Infant Death Syndrome, Sudden adult death syndrome, and deaths of the infirm will also increase statistically.
Multiple sclerosis, Parkinson’s and other neurological conditions will follow similar increases in diagnosis and relapses from those diagnosed.
Just hope we do not get a Bird Flu Outbreak to top it all off.
Fingers crossed and watching the news closely.
Hopefully I am wrong but I doubt it. [;)]
Andrew K Fletcher
Other realated thread:
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=12733.0
The information below was added 09/08/08 to remind readers of the way politicians managed F&M during the last major Nationwide outbreak.
Lest we forget!
http://www.numberwatch.co.uk/lest_we_forget.htm
Meanwhile an outbreak occurred in Holland. The Dutch implemented an immediate programme of vaccination, which suppressed the disease almost at once. The vaccinated animals were all slaughtered, but that was only done to satisfy the EU and its fears about its meat trading status. In Britain, the carnage, which had already seemed unimaginably barbaric, was about to enter an even more cataclysmic stage. The professor’s computer, like some latter day insatiable Moloch, demanded more and more blood sacrifices. The hit squads, by now not only officials but also the army, were roaming the countryside shooting, bludgeoning and drowning perfectly healthy animals.
The anecdotes from this period read like a lunatic’s account of a madman’s war. A mistake in a map grid reference caused the deaths, not only of a farmer’s livestock, but also his children’s pets. Other stock were killed through clerical error. 20,000 animals in Devon were saved at the last minute when a mistaken diagnosis was discovered. Pregnant sheep were shot at random while they climbed over the corpses of their fellows. Houses were broken into so that pets could be slaughtered. Mounds of carcases lay neglected and rotting in the fields, others were transported in lorries through hitherto unaffected areas with blood dripping onto the roads. Funeral pyres sent clouds of reeking smoke across housing estates. Burial pits containing up to half a million corpses leached blood and gore into water supplies. Thousands had to be dug up again.
It was at this point, towards the end of April, that Prof King announced that the disease was "totally under control". The election, which had now been put off to June, was uppermost in political minds and the spin-doctors took over. Suddenly the slaughter of healthy cattle was not so important and sheep were put in the firing line as the main spreaders of the virus. This had the other considerable political advantage that the EU had decreed that Britain was overpopulated with sheep anyway. From now on, it would be presentation that mattered. By now the total number of outbreaks had risen to 1,517. MAFF began to present only daily figures and wiped all the historical data off its web site. Slaughterings were reclassified so that they did not appear in the daily headline figure. Outbreaks were only included when they had been confirmed by subsequent testing. Farmers in Cumbria claimed that 24 outbreaks in their area had been reported by MAFF as only 9. Most sinister of all was a sudden conversion by MAFF vets from a tendency to label every suspicious case as FMD to a reluctance to admit that even the most obvious cases were the disease at all.
Dr Paul Kitchen, Britain’s leading expert on the disease, had been the most vehement critic of Prof Anderson’s computer. In the face of the way the election date had been changed, with the computer predictions following conveniently, he resigned his post as deputy head of Pirbright and took up a post in Canada.
In May, as the election campaign warmed up, the situation became really weird. The media, and particularly the BBC, were lulled into a remarkable quietude by the presentation skills of the spin-doctors. They behaved as if the crisis were all but over. Out in the real world of the British countryside the slaughter had entered a new crescendo. The daily average of animals killed reached a startling 32,000. The total number of deaths was now 6 million, nearly a tenth of Britain’s entire livestock. Ministers decreed the opening up of the countryside with photo-opportunities at appropriate tourist sites. Meanwhile, in places like Devon, Cumbria and Dumfries, the terror was being inflicted with greater intensity than ever. A few horror stories about armed gangs breaking in to slaughter pets leaked into the media. Farmers and animal sanctuary proprietors had begun legal challenges, many of which MAFF gave up on without a fight, by now being well aware that its actions had been quite illegal.
When another outbreak occurred in a new area, Settle in Yorkshire, MAFF suddenly refused to put the figures on its web site, citing the Data Protection Act as a reason. Secret mass burials were being carried out at the dead of night in ordinary landfill sites. Death squads of MAFF officials, backed up by dozens of policemen in riot gear, roamed the villages of Devon shooting every animal in sight. It was one of the most extraordinary examples of mass law-breaking in history, and all carried out be Government officials.
Tony Blair won his great gamble. Like his predecessor in large majority government, Margaret Thatcher, he was returned to power not by public enthusiasm for his own policies, but rather by the suicidal tendencies in the opposition. The aftermath was just as sordid as the conduct of the crisis itself. No official was punished for the massive breaches of the law. The only recognition that they had occurred was the Government’s seeking powers to slaughter more legally in future. Calls from many influential sources for a full inquiry were ignored and the Government spin-doctors dreamed up a scheme of three innocuous mini-inquiries as a substitute. MAFF had its name changed to DEFRA, but they were the same people in the same offices with the same mind set. In the week after the election 80,000 animals were killed and in the following week 93,000. The government also began to speak of restricting farming to those with licences to carry it out.
The epidemiologists had the last word. Prof Anderson claimed in an article in Nature that one million animals and four hundred farms could have been saved if his cull policy had been "fully enforced". Even more bizarrely, Prof King stated in a TV interview that next time "vaccination would have to be top of the agenda", not explaining why next time would be different from the last. Nearly eight million animals, one eighth of all those in Britain and most of them healthy, had been slain. Mass bankruptcies occurred throughout the rural economy. Industries ranging from hotel chains to hot air balloon manufacturers were devastated. The total cost to the British economy was in the range 10 to 20 billion pounds. Promises of Government aid faded away in the miasma of bureaucratic manoeuvring and EU regulation.
And, as occurred in Holland, it could all have been avoided with a simple programme of vaccination. It was all done in the name of a theoretical disease free status, which had ironically been invented by the British. Above all, it was yet another triumph for the science of epidemiology. If you think such an ironic remark unduly provocative, consider the summing up a year later by Professor David King, the UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, who described the handling of the foot-and-mouth epidemic as "quite an achievement . . . a magnificent record". He told the BBC Today programme that securing Britain’s status as an FMD-free country was a cause for "celebration". Members of the European Parliament, among others, took rather a different view.
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Funny, I thought F+M was caused by a virus and that the reason it wasn't here was because we quarantined the virus.
The outbreak from Pirbirght was due to shoddy procedures and equipment.
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and I predict that due to the recent wet weather, farmers will get muddy boots!
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BC you can't quarantine a virus. The virus is here all the time. Just takes adverse weather and high humidity to lower the animals resisence to the pathogen and we have another outbreak. The virus may or may not have come from Pirbright, but let us remember that Pirbright must have isolated the virus from a former outbreak.
RE Muddy Boots. During all of the last major outbreaks of F&M in the UK farmers and veterinary surgeons have indeed been knee deep in mud, urine and cow dung. But more to the point so were the farm animals. Was it a coincidence that these animals that developed the disease were in low lying river valley areas and subject to serious flooding?
Funny, I thought F+M was caused by a virus and that the reason it wasn't here was because we quarantined the virus.
The outbreak from Pirbirght was due to shoddy procedures and equipment.
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Andrew if your analysis of the causes for the UK's animals getting foot and mouth is because
of wet conditions, floods.
Then how come that F & M has not occured this summer and it's been a wet one?
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Eh? You can, and people do, impose quarantines for viruses. They don't actually transfer by magic, if infected and uninfected animals/people are kept seperate then the chances of disease transfer are greatly reduced.
The effectiveness of the quarantine is somewhat dependent on the resiliance of the virus and whether and for how long it can survive in the environment outside the organism.
I don't know what the infection mechanism of FMD is, but certainly skin tends to be softened by being wet all the time so if animals are in a damp field they might be more likely to get cuts on their feet so if that's a common infection route then it might be up a bit... but FMD is a systemic rather than a local disease as I understand it, so I don't think the state of the feet is particularly important otherwise.
A far more likely reason for increased transmission, I'd have thought, in particularly wet weather is that if there's lots of surface water washing from one field to another then it will facilitate transmission between herds.
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"Was it a coincidence that these animals that developed the disease were in low lying river valley areas and subject to serious flooding? "
Not entirely, the drains from the lab ran downhill in the way drains usually do.
The idea that bad weather causes F+M is odd to say the least, wet Summers are not rare in the UK but F+M outbreaks are.
Also, please dont waste time saying things like "you can't quarantine a virus.", at least not while you live in a country that has been kept free of rabies for decades. Also, don't say "The virus is here all the time." unless you have real evidence to back it up.
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http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?page=2008%5C07%5C12%5Cstory_12-7-2008_pg12_11
Rainy season linked to foot-and-mouth disease in Landhi
Daily Times Monitor
KARACHI: Experts who recently published their study on the world’s largest buffalo colony, which happens to be right here in Karachi, have urged farmers and the government to carry out double vaccinations to prevent the spread of foot-and-mouth disease which is endemic in Pakistan.
According to the paper - ‘Epidemiology of foot-and-mouth disease in Landhi Dairy Colony, Pakistan, the world largest Buffalo colony’ - published in Virology Journal in April, experts have studied the disease in the Landhi Dairy Colony (LDC), located in the suburbs of Karachi. LDC is the largest buffalo colony in the world, with more than 300,000 animals (around 95% buffaloes and 5% cattle, as well as an unknown number of sheep and goats). Each month from April 2006 to April 2007 the experts collected mouth-swabs from apparently healthy buffaloes and cattle.
The tests showed that the infection was endemic in the colony, with peaks in August 2006, December 2006 and February 2007 to March 2007. There was a significant link to the rainy seasons, which includes the coldest time of the year and Eid. They discovered that 88% of all questioned farmers vaccinate their animals.
The experts suggested twice annual mass vaccination of all buffaloes and cattle in the colony as part of a control programme. These mass vaccinations should best take place shortly before the beginning of the two rainy periods, e.g. in June and September. Those vaccinations should be in addition to the already individually performed vaccinations of single animals, as the latter usually targets only newly introduced animals. This suggested combination of mass vaccination of all large ruminants with the already performed individually vaccination should provide a continuous high level of herd immunity in the entire colony.
Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is a highly contagious and economically important disease caused by foot-and-mouth disease virus (FMDV). Animals that can be affected include cattle, buffaloes, sheep, goats, pigs and wild ruminants.
FMD is endemic in Pakistan and causes huge economic losses to commercial cattle and buffalo owners. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) there are no proper arrangements for providing vaccine to the farmers and the open market is flooded with uncontrolled vaccine of doubtful efficiency.
FMD is considered endemic in both Pakistan and the neighbouring countries of India, Afghanistan, Iran and China and those serotypes are a continued problem in Pakistan.
Pakistan considers itself as having a seasonal, low-level, sporadic occurrence of FMD (Pakistan reported around 10–30 outbreaks per year until year 2000 after which no information is available). Animals are only vaccinated upon request and the yearly number of vaccine doses used varies between 12,000 to 95,000 doses for cattle and 7,000 to 60,000 for buffaloes in the years from 1997–2002 (no data available after 2002). This amount of vaccine is likely in addition to an unknown amount of open market, uncontrolled vaccines, but is nevertheless not much considering that Pakistan has a population of 51.1 million cattle, 56.9 million buffaloes, 50.3 million sheep and 123.9 million goats.
The majority of commercial dairy farmers is vaccinating its animals against FMD, either with imported trivalent vaccine, e.g. Aftovax (Merial, France), or with a locally produced monovalent vaccine (serotype O). Major challenges to control FMD in Pakistan relate, in part, to the lack of sufficient resources for diagnosis and continuous FMD genotype surveillance, but also the difficulties of controlling the vaccine market, as well as the lack of basic biosecurity awareness and control of animal movements. The latter is also hampered by the annual religious festival Eid ul-Adza, where thousands of buffaloes, cattle
The virus can be destroyed by high heat, low humidity, or some disinfectants, but may remain viable on contaminated objects or in frozen or chilled carcasses and animal byproducts for up to two years (USDA, 1994; MAFF, 2001). The disease spreads by exposure to infected or "carrier" animals or contaminated equipment, facilities, vehicles, roads, and common materials used in animal husbandry. Humans and other nonsusceptible animals may spread the disease. International travelers may spread the disease via contaminated clothing and shoes or by carrying contaminated food products across international borders. Long-distance spread can occur under certain conditions of topography, atmospheric conditions, high humidity, and wind (USDA, 1994; EUFMD, 2001).
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0HIC/is_3_16/ai_80848245
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The important bits there are
"The tests showed that the infection was endemic in the colony," and
"FMD is endemic in Pakistan"
Also "The virus can be destroyed by high heat, low humidity, or some disinfectants, but may remain viable on contaminated objects or in frozen or chilled carcasses and animal byproducts for up to two years "
So, since there was more than a 2 year break, the virus had to have cme from somewher other than the fields.
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The important bits:
As you state low humidity destroys the virus. Therefore High humidity must contribute to its survival and infection rate.
Infected animals were taken into warm clean dry laboratory conditions to be studied and they all recovered completely. Fact!
Special high humidity chambers are being manufactured to study infected animals in, so that they remain infected.
Animals in arid / dry areas, providing there is no artificially high humidity from intensive irrigations systems remain unafected.
Animals in flood plains deluged by rain become suseptable. Ironically so do human offspring and adults. High humidity lowers both animal and human abilities to combat infections.
http://www.namibian.com.na/2008/August/national/081B52DB93.html
Friday, August 1, 2008 - Web posted at 8:50:59 AM GMT
Foot-and-mouth disease SOS in the Kavango
BRIGITTE WEIDLICH
THE Ministry of Agriculture stopped all livestock movements in all regions north of the veterinary cordon fence yesterday following an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the Kavango Region near Divundu.
The temporary ban includes grass, thatch and "other plant material", which may also not be transported, and meat exports from the Oshakati abattoir have also been stopped until further notice.
Four surveillance teams have been deployed and the results of laboratory tests are expected by Saturday.
"The immediate area around Kamutjona village in the Mukwe constituency 16 kilometres south-east of Divundu has been designated as a containment zone," Andrew Ndishishi, Permanent Secretary in the Agriculture Ministry, said in a statement yesterday afternoon.
"The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is suspected to have been transmitted from wild buffalo in the nearby Mohambo Game Park, which are long-term carriers of the FMD virus."
Roadblocks have been set up in the area, where 15 cattle with FMD were detected at four homesteads on Monday.
The area around Kamutjona village is home to about 900 cattle belonging to villagers.
"A temporary but complete ban of livestock movement from region to region in the whole buffer zone has been imposed, which are the areas north of the veterinary cordon fence.
The areas include the Kavango, Oshikoto, Oshana, Ohangwena and Kunene Regions," Ndishishi said. "Cattle in quarantine camps awaiting slaughter will be allowed to be processed at the Oshakati abattoir, but a moratorium on meat exports from there has been imposed," Ndishishi added. The restrictions were necessary to allow the Directorate of Veterinary services to fully investigate the extent of the FMD outbreak A gradual lifting of the restrictions will be announced in due course. Due to an earlier outbreak of FMD in the Caprivi Region this year, livestock movements there have been stopped already and the abattoir at Katima Mulilo has closed down for the time being..
We shall have to wait and see if there is another outbreak on the cards due to this unusually wet summer.
Andrew
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"As you state low humidity destroys the virus. Therefore High humidity must contribute to its survival and infection rate."
Damp might help, but the UK is generally damp. There generally isn't any virus about so we don't get outbreaks.
"Infected animals were taken into warm clean dry laboratory conditions to be studied and they all recovered completely. Fact!"
Most anoimals infected with FMD survive so there's nothing special about this observation.
"Animals in arid / dry areas, providing there is no artificially high humidity from intensive irrigations systems remain unafected."
The disease in endemic in much of Africa, Asia, and South America. They can't all be wet all the time.
Outbreaks tend not to occur in Winter when the weather is at it's coldest and wettest.
If there's another outbreak of FMD this year it will be traced (as the 1967, 2001, and 2007 outbreaks were) to a source of the virus.
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Glad you mentioned the last outbreaks because every single one of them was plagued with widespread floods.
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Complicated development of cattle and poultry diseases warned
09:31' 24/07/2008 (GMT+7)
Pigs suffering from blue ear disease are culled.
VietNamNet Bridge - Over the past two weeks, in the whole country, two more "outbreaks" of bird flu disease have been reported in provinces of Dong Thap and Nghe An, blue ear diseases have occurred in six more provinces, in which Quang Tri, Thua Thien – Hue and Ba Ria – Vung Tau have been hardest hit, while foot-and-mouth diseases in Cao Bang and Quang Ninh have been gradually controlled.
The announcement is made by the Veterinary Department at a meeting in Hanoi on July 22 by the National Steering Board For Bird Flu Control and Prevention.
The Board said that the resistance of cattle and poultry will reduce in the coming time due to abnormal weather conditions, thus the danger of new outbreaks occurrence is still looming large, increasing the danger of blue ear epidemic spread, threatening the Central Highlands and the South Eastern provinces.
So, the Board requests localities to strictly monitor and stamp out the outbreaks of the diseases. Localities which are yet to be hit by the diseases should get ready chemicals and money and other means so as to actively cope with the diseases, if any.
http://english.vietnamnet.vn/social/2008/07/795197/
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Glad you mentioned the last outbreaks because every single one of them was plagued with widespread floods.
Andrew it has been a wet summer this year but no signs of FMD so
that your theories for once don't seem to corrobrate with studies.
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Hi Rosalind dna
My prediction is that an outbreak is on the cards, not that it has happened already. We shall have to wait and see if this prediction has any merit.
Andrew it has been a wet summer this year but no signs of FMD so
that your theories for once don't seem to corrobrate with studies.
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My prediction is that an outbreak is on the cards,
I don’t think that is in the card.
You have presented strong point about unusually wheat weather along with widespread of floods in UK and the Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks
not that it has happened already.
According to your statement it already has happened (1967, 2001 and 2007)
last outbreaks because every single one of them was plagued with widespread floods.
We shall have to wait and see if this prediction has any merit.
I don’t think that the outbreak of foot and mouth disease will happen this year because this summer is wheat above average but is les wheat than last summer. The last summer it was a widespread of floods. This year we didn’t have widespread of floods, at least not yet.
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Hi Rosalind dna
My prediction is that an outbreak is on the cards, not that it has happened already. We shall have to wait and see if this prediction has any merit.
Andrew it has been a wet summer this year but no signs of FMD so
that your theories for once don't seem to corrobrate with studies.
Andrew I think that if that's so then the weather had better warm up a bit
which I doubt that is a possibility this year.
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GSBG
Humidity is the important factor here not how wet the soil is. These animals require sunlight like the rest of us in order to flourish. Typically British weather often lacks sunlight. But this year we appear to be experiencing some unusual summer weather. Hopefully the winter may bring some dryer weather.
Even in desert conditions Excessive Irrigation often provides a river valley with very high humidity, This is often followed by an increase in viral and bacterial pathogen outbreaks, some very serious and life threatening. In addition Foot and mouth disease is also found in these artificially high humid environments.
In the UK we experience a fair amount of rainfall compared to many other countries. Our winters often bring with them the floods you mention. The ground water levels are already high. Ireland for example has experienced floods already so has Wales and Leicester.
There appears to be an uneven distribution of rainfall lately around the globe, with some areas experiencing severe drought yet other areas experiencing widespread floods. Africa has been experiencing some unusually high rainfalls in areas and this has followed with the appearance of foot and mouth disease and other viral outbreaks.
The First World War gives us another example of influenza pandemic killing millions of soldiers and civilians and crossing from country to country with little to no hope of containing it. This time was also the time of some unusually wet weather with soldiers suffering from trench foot due to the swamplike conditions.
In the Late Tudor Period the sweating sickness killed millions also. The Historic recording for it easing was a tempest that swept away the unusually foul air. Meaning High Humidity.
My prediction is that an outbreak is on the cards,
I don’t think that is in the card.
You have presented strong point about unusually wheat weather along with widespread of floods in UK and the Foot and Mouth Disease Outbreaks
not that it has happened already.
According to your statement it already has happened (1967, 2001 and 2007)
last outbreaks because every single one of them was plagued with widespread floods.
We shall have to wait and see if this prediction has any merit.
I don’t think that the outbreak of foot and mouth disease will happen this year because this summer is wheat above average but is les wheat than last summer. The last summer it was a widespread of floods. This year we didn’t have widespread of floods, at least not yet.
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Two points.
We get a lot of wet Winters and very few outbreaks. So when you write "Glad you mentioned the last outbreaks because every single one of them was plagued with widespread floods." you need to explain why lots of other outbreaks didn't happen.
Places like Vietnam etc which you keep citing have endemic FMD. The UK doesn't.
What the virus does in bad weather is one thing. What bad weather does in the absense of the virus is another.
Do you not understand that
1 You need the virus to get FMD.
2 The UK doesn't generally have that virus?
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BC
You argue that the wild animals in Africa are responsible for maintaining the virus so that it can be spread back to livestock. Can I ask you why the wild dear and wild boar can't also be doing the same in the UK?
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Andrew,
Every sentence of your reply is worth discussion. But for now I like to concentrate on the foot and mouth disease outbreak in UK. I think that it can be discovered important puzzle that will enable further discovery.
First of all I am not sure that humidity is the main factor because in Florida is far more humidity than in UK. However I don’t exclude possibility that you are right. To agree or to disagree about that point I need more information.
Second; I don’t think that lack of sun is a factor that contributing to outbreak of foot and mouth disease. On the other side I don’t exclude possibility that you are right on this point.
For now I am interesting to know what the all three outbreak (1967, 2001 and 2007) have in common.
According to your posts, every outbreak of FMD has happened immediately after widespread of flooding.
Widespread flooding isn’t always followed wit FDM outbreak (is rarely followed wit outbreak of FMD).
FMD never happened without widespread of flooding.
This is how I have understood. To avoid misunderstanding on the beginning of discussion, please correct me if I am wrong.
Luka
GSBG
Humidity is the important factor here not how wet the soil is. These animals require sunlight like the rest of us in order to flourish. Typically British weather often lacks sunlight. But this year we appear to be experiencing some unusual summer weather. Hopefully the winter may bring some dryer weather.
Even in desert conditions Excessive Irrigation often provides a river valley with very high humidity, This is often followed by an increase in viral and bacterial pathogen outbreaks, some very serious and life threatening. In addition Foot and mouth disease is also found in these artificially high humid environments.
In the UK we experience a fair amount of rainfall compared to many other countries. Our winters often bring with them the floods you mention. The ground water levels are already high. Ireland for example has experienced floods already so has Wales and Leicester.
There appears to be an uneven distribution of rainfall lately around the globe, with some areas experiencing severe drought yet other areas experiencing widespread floods. Africa has been experiencing some unusually high rainfalls in areas and this has followed with the appearance of foot and mouth disease and other viral outbreaks.
The First World War gives us another example of influenza pandemic killing millions of soldiers and civilians and crossing from country to country with little to no hope of containing it. This time was also the time of some unusually wet weather with soldiers suffering from trench foot due to the swamplike conditions.
In the Late Tudor Period the sweating sickness killed millions also. The Historic recording for it easing was a tempest that swept away the unusually foul air. Meaning High Humidity.
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BC
You argue that the wild animals in Africa are responsible for maintaining the virus so that it can be spread back to livestock. Can I ask you why the wild dear and wild boar can't also be doing the same in the UK?
Liar.
I never said that.
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The word endemic also implies that the virus is maintained in the wild population of animals. Sorry if this was taken out of context.
However calling me a liar over something as minor as a misunderstanding tells people a lot more about you BC than it does about me.
I Bet you wouldnt say this to my face!
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IMPORTANT PLEASE READ THIS!
FOOT & MOUTH IS LINKED IRREFUTABLY TO THE WEATHER!
HOW MANY MORE OUTBREAKS OF FOOT AND MOUTH WILL IT TAKE?
Started: 04/04/01 Date:29/04/01
NOTE:
Pages 9-11 contain an astonishing amount of evidence, which supports this paper. Relevant Data relating to the impact of meteorological conditions are extracted from two reports from The Committee of Inquiry on Foot-and-Mouth Disease 1967/1968 Epidemic. Part 1 and Part 2. Received from HM Stationary Office on the 24th April 2001 20 days after I began writing this paper.
Foot and Mouth Disease
Important Reference: "Weather', June, 1969 "Effects of wind and precipitation on the spread of Foot-and-mouth disease. PB Wright, Meteorological Office, Bracknell. pp204-213 (Page 8 independent study results)
Recent News broadcasts are finally focusing on changes in the weather. Unfortunately, misguided information is leading the media and the public to believe that it is the sunlight and UV light that is assisting the recent decline in outbreaks. This is clearly not the case and as you read through this report you will find an overwhelming amount of evidence which points to humidity rain and wind as the major components for the spread of foot and mouth disease.
The survival Time of the virus, once airborne, is determined chiefly by the humidity; below 60% relative humidity the virus soon becomes inactivated (Barlow,1972, Donaldson 1972), but in moister air the survival time is measured in days. Despite some early speculations that the virus is susceptible to sunlight, the evidence suggests that any such effect is extremely small (Druet and May 1969). The effect of temperature on the virus has not been examined, but studies with other viruses suggest that it is secondary to that of relative humidity (Amers 1969). (TEXT and Ref's by R.M.Blackall and J.Gloster Meteorological Office, Bracknall 1981)
Once gravity is accepted as the primary cause of circulation, (experimental evidence is irrefutable), it becomes clear to understand why foot and mouth disease affects the flesh around the hooves of grazing animals. It is not a coincidence that hooves, tusks and even finger and toenails occur where they do. They are merely disposal sites for heavy substances, which arrive, where they do because of gravity! It is no coincidence that we, the most vertical of all species, are the most successful! Gravity is evolution!
The specific gravity of urine for instance was used to determine whether gravity driven circulation could be taking place in humans and animals, In a similar process. For example respiration causes water to evaporate from the lungs and respiratory tract. Fluids remaining in the body contain minerals and must therefore be concentrated by the loss of mineral free water (evaporation). Gravity causes the heavy solution to be drawn back through the lining of the lungs and respiratory tract and down through the vessels in the body, carrying dissolved oxygen with it. Concentrated solutions arrive at the bladder via the kidneys where they are excreted in the urine. However the kidneys are not 100% efficient and some minerals arrive in the lowest anatomical extremities, solidifying as finger and toenails or horses hooves etc. Clippings of which sink when dropped into water.
RESULTS:
5 degree to the horizontal head down tilt over one week decreased the specific gravity of urine to a near zero reading.
5 degree to the horizontal head up tilt over one week significantly increased the specific gravity of urine when compared to horizontal bedrest.
Conclusion:
Gravity does indeed play an important roll in renal function! Toxins leave the body more efficiently when the human body is correctly aligned with the direction of gravity.
The physiology of pig is very close to humans. So close in fact that pig is now used to cultivate replacement organs for humans. (Heart valve replacement, one example). One could deduce that many of today’s illnesses affecting us could also be affecting pig and visa-versa. In fact almost all of the drugs used in veterinary practice today have a human equivalent which in many cases is identical to those prescribed to animals in all but the name of the drug.
(See Pages 5 &6 Health news)
It is also worth remembering that many of these drugs have been tested on animals before entering the £ multi-billion consumer marketplaces, which currently satisfies the medical and scientific industries.
Towards the end of the year 2000, while driving past a pig farm on three occasions, I noticed that the animals were walking around ankle deep in water, mud, urine and excrement. Due undoubtedly to the excessive rainfall Britain was experiencing at the time and I remember thinking to myself that these unfortunate animals were exposed to environmental factors that could not be healthy to say the least.
If scientists were correct about the physiological similarities between pigs and humans, then these pigs were in real trouble due to the appalling weather conditions they were exposed to.
ANALOGY
Take a thousand people, strip them naked and leave them to face the same elements and water logged fields we have seen here in Britain for six months and see how many of us survive. Of course this would be considered inhumane and could never happen to humans, but it is happening!- all the time to pigs and other farm animals?
Remember that long soak in the bath or spending too long at the swimming baths. Toes feet and fingers that looked like they belonged to someone much older, all wrinkled and horrible. Soldiers on manoeuvres in tropical regions face foot rot due to the wet and humid conditions. Jungle fever, leprosy, typhoid and many other diseases abound in such environments. Or do they? Could it be that the adverse environment reduces our resistance to many of these illnesses? Wet weather certainly affects our health and is bore out by the sudden increase in deaths among the elderly every Autumn and Winter. Sudden Infant and adult deaths occur more frequently and influenza outbreaks, which have wiped out many thousands of people, are well documented. Aching arthritic joints, bronchitis, pleurisy, pneumonia, seasonal affective disorder, to mention a few, add more problems to our already over-stretched National health services. Yet we do at least live in relatively comfortable homes when compared to the pig, sheep or cow! Every time there is a serious flood in the developing world, where people have less adequate accommodation, cholera outbreaks become a real problem! Rotting bodies and the carcasses of animals poison the water.
However there are a number of more unfortunate people who live on the streets all over the world, including Britain. It is within this underclass of the world’s poor people that serious illnesses abound, like tuberculosis. Surely this must cement in place the fact that we, like the farm animals, can’t survive the harsh elements that the weather places upon us unless we find a clean, warm and dry shelter!
In the late Tudor Period, British history tells the story of the Sweating Sickness, which killed off many tens of thousands of people. Reference was made and documented as to the unusually high humidity affecting Britain and Europe alike. Eventually, A tempest (storm) swept away the illness and with it went the humidity. Fortunately, living conditions for most have improved since the Tudor period.
The weather in the UK in the years 2000-2001 has been the wettest on record, many homes have been flooded time and time again. Yet little if any time has been devoted to connecting the foot and mouth outbreak this year to the environmental factors even though there is documented evidence which supports the fact that humidity prolongs the life of pathogenic infectious agents. (Page7: How is the virus destroyed?)
Sudden Infant Deaths
Leslie Monroe conducted a statistical analysis of incidence of sudden infant deaths (SIDS) His work now forms part of the statistics collection shown on Open University Programmes. Leslie J. A. Monro (Swindon) showed beyond any shadow of a doubt, that living in low lying river valley areas, which suffered Winter Waterlogged soils had a much greater incidence of SIDS, up to 46% above the National average. I have spoken with Mr Monro on several occasions and challenge anyone to find fault with his findings. Universities have--and failed to find anything to the contrary! I conducted my own comparisons based on monthly rainfall plotted in a graph against monthly occurrences of SIDS from 1985 to 1992. The graph shows a double mirror image. Not only do the peaks and troughs match convincingly, but also the general downward drift of rainfall from 1985 to 1992, leading to a drought in the winter of 1992 was followed by an almost identical decline in SIDS. Could it be the humidity/damp in these areas that increases the incidence of SIDS?
Yet in 1997 in the months before and during the last outbreak of foot and mouth disease, the rainfall in Britain was again excessively wet and prolonged. Veterinary surgeon Hugh Peplow of Munnings Mitchell & Peplow remembers the appalling weather conditions of 1967.
Notable Features of the Weather (Monthly weather report . MET Office) volume: 84 No: 13 Date 21st August 1973. Summary for the year 1967
1967 was a rather wet year. May was an exceptionally wet month. Rainfall being over three times the national average over large areas of Northern England. Over the country as a whole it was the wettest May since 1773. The 14th & 15th were the wettest days and noteworthy falls in many parts of the country included one of 22mm in 15 minutes at Wollerton Park, Norfolk on the 14th. Heavy storms led to widespread flooding in Lancashire between the 8th and 10th of August; at Hornby 75 mm of rain was recorded in 15 minutes
July: The first 10 days were cool with weather mainly dry in the south-east, but with occasional rain in the north and west. The 13th marked the beginning of 10 days of thundery weather, thunderstorms were widespread on the 14th &15th
From the 24th a number of rain-belts spread south-eastwards over the country. The 27th & 29th were wet in all districts.
August: Cool and unsettled weather during first week. south-east mainly dry. Thundery outbreaks from the 8th until the 11th ended violently and with wide spread flooding, especially in Lancashire, where 75 mm of rain fell in 3 hours. North-westerly winds brought cooler weather to most districts on the 12th, but from the 14th to the 18th there was a good deal of rain. The 19th to 28th was a generally warm dry period, although in some places remained cool because overnight fog was slow to clear. The last three days were unsettled although south-east was mainly dry.
September
The first 5 days were generally unsettled, with frequent often severe gales. Prolonged rain, heavy at times, was broken by showery weather during the afternoon of the 2nd and during the 4th Tiree recorded 75mm of rain during this period. 10th & 11th were generally dull and wet days, other days being fine. 15th & 16th dull but mainly dry. 17th an area of rain moved across most districts and another during the night of 18th/19th , scattered thunderstorms on the 20th and heavy showers on the 21st were followed by a week of warmer weather and southerly winds, however rain was widespread on the 24th, 25th and 29th. 30th sunny with scattered showers.
October (Time of the 1967 outbreak of FMD) (Source of local information for Oct: Vol 84 same report)
First 3 days were cool and stormy with widespread rain and gales, 4th bright and showery, but further rain reached south-west England from the Atlantic on the 5th. Mild south-westerly winds occurred on the 6th spreading throughout the country.
A wet period followed, heavy rain on the 8th 9th & 10th led to widespread floods in the Lake District, south-west Scotland and north Wales. North Wales suffered considerable flood damage on the 10th. Great Langdale (Westmoorland) recorded 146mm in 24 hours. 11th Cooler westerly winds brought further rain and temperatures fell too near normal. 12th & 13th were sunny and dry for most of the country. A wet day on the 14th and Northerly winds brought a sharp drop in temperatures on the 15th. The 16th was the stormiest day of the month and heavy rains led to renewed widespread flooding in Wales and the Midlands. The days rainfall exceeded 50 mm in many parts of the Midlands, 85mm fell at Lwynon (Brecknock). The second half of the month was changeable and rather wet. Gales were severe in places and continued on the 17th from a north-westerly direction behind the depression. Thundery showers spread to all districts in this cold north-westerly air-stream and snow was reported as far south as Ringway (Manchester). Prolonged sunny periods on the 18th & 22nd Temperatures were above average for the week following the 18th but the last five days of the month were rather cool with widespread rain on the 19th 20th 27th and rain reached all districts late in the day on the 30th 31st widespread rain.
November
The unsettled, stormy and cold weather continued for most of the first week. Rain was widespread and heavy locally on most days of this week. Rain reached northern districts on the 24th and spread southwards over the country bringing to an end 11 dry days at many places over Southern England. 27th- unsettled with rain alternating with brighter showery periods.
December
Overnight fog was slow to disperse in the Midlands during the first two days. Rain spread South Eastwards across the country on the night of the 2nd. 3rd mainly fine. North westerly winds reached gale force during the next two days, and rain moving south. Followed by 5 days of cold Northerly winds which brought snow to all districts. Rain continued on the 11th moving to the south-east of England for most of the 12th. Widespread rain on the 15th followed by 4 days of cold weather with snow showers and night frosts. 21st to 27th saw milder wet weather, but the 28th saw cold northerly winds with some snow until the end of the month.
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ATTEMPTS TO BE HEARD
I have contacted the Ministry Of Agriculture Fisheries and Food (MAFF) and the National Farmers Union (NFU), Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Woking, Surrey GU24 ONF, U.K. Reply: "not now, this is the wrong time to consider your work in this field, come back when all of this has blown over. However, my wife heard on the TV days after I had spoken to a veterinary surgeon at MAFF that the outbreak of foot and mouth will subside when the weather changes for the better! But what if it changes for the worse? Furthermore, I have sent a copy of this paper to all concerned with foot and mouth disease.
Why the mass slaughter of livestock and disruptions to the farming and tourist industries if the problem will resolve itself when the rain stops? (page7 Persistence of Virus Donaldson 1987).
Indeed why was the vaccine never used? I believe that the vaccine for foot and mouth disease is only partially successful and officials know this, as is the case with any vaccine for influenza in humans, when one bug is defeated another variant will take its place.
http://www.man.ac.uk/Science_Engineering/CHSTM/news/fmd-faq.htm#1967
Materials and comments by Abigail Woods MA MSc VetMB MRCVS
Is slaughter really necessary?
On animal and human health grounds, almost certainly not. 95% of animals will recover within 2 weeks with little or no treatment. There is virtually no risk to human health. Abigail Woods points to the economics of farming and the fact that animal’s once infected fail to thrive and gain weight. Could the adverse environmental conditions be responsible for animals failing to thrive?
PROPOSEL put to MAFF and the NFU
Confine a number of affected animals in a secure, clean containment room with dry bedding food and water and room for exercise, use a dehumidifier to remove the moisture from the air to create a warm dry environment. Study the effects of the improved environmental conditions on the affected animals for five weeks and see if they recover!
Having put my proposal to MAFF, which in my opinion would be simple and cost effective to conduct. No further action looks imminent, instead the mass slaughter continues, as if there is some other hidden agenda behind it, perhaps to make sure that the future stocks on our farms are free from BSE? Or simply to make use of the surplus meat and dairy produce, which was given away to people in Britain a few years ago? (EEC. meat and butter mountains) caused by intensive farming and the resulting overproduction!
This model (mentioned above) has already been proven, albeit unwittingly by scientists who tried to reproduce the same prolific viral traits as observed in farming conditions and failed because they had a clean dry environment under laboratory conditions, which is exactly what I am saying. Remove the environmental conditions faced by these animals and they will become healthy animals; furthermore, the spread from one animal to another in the contained dry experimental environment will decrease and stability will be observed! Pages 10&11 Report of the Inquiry on Foot-and-Mouth Disease 1968 Paragraphs 223,224,225
One official at least said that he thought my arguments had some validity, fitting with many of the known parameters in foot and mouth disease. He said that it is thought that the summer months will eliminate the disease and this is thought to be because of the rays from the sun and that it should be investigated further. I pointed out that my proposal did not involve the sun and that if successful would prove this point.
Conclusion
Foot and Mouth Disease is here to stay as are many illnesses affecting humans and animals alike. It is only the changes in environmental conditions, which reduce resistance’s to infectious agents that mislead scientists into believing that someone must have introduced the disease from some far off place. It is easier to pass the book and look for a safe scapegoat, rather than admit that today’s knowledge about the circulation of fluids within the body of humans and animals is incorrect! After all, if the disease originated in some far-flung place, something must have triggered it in the first place! The recent floods in Africa for example?
Two suicides already reported in the farming community on Sky TV News today 04 April 2001, how many more lives and livelihoods will be trashed before this ridiculous farce ends?
Foot and mouth should be seen as a warning of pending danger.
Foot and mouth should be seen as a warning of pending danger from infectious diseases which can spread to humans from animals. One consideration should be the outbreak of Nipha Disease in Malaysia.
'Emergency report' by the Director General of the Malaysian Veterinary Services, Dr Mohd Nordin Mohd Nor, to the OIE, (published in their weekly DISEASE INFORMATION of 28 May 1999, Vol. 12 - No. 20.)
By mid-December 1998, the disease had spread to Sikamat, about 60 km south of Kuala Lumpur, through movement of infected pigs. Seven of the 20 workers developed the disease and five died in January 1999.
By March 1999 the disease had spread to the major pig producing area of Bukit Pelandok in the State of Negeri Sembilan
The disease spread to more farms and, from 1 March to 10 May 1999, a total of 224 suspected cases of viral encephalitis occurred in Negeri Sembilan with 80 fatalities. Out of a total of 258 persons suspected of being infected with the Nipah virus, 100 have died.
In a previously infected farm, more than 95% of sows had Nipah virus antibodies. More than 90% of the piglets had antibodies assumed to be maternal antibodies. Antibody prevalence across all ages is currently being
studied in an infected farm. END OF COPIED REPORT
This is the first comprehensive report we have seen and may be the first comprehensive report. Japanese encephalitis is no longer being reported as the etiologic agent of Nipah disease and other steps forward obviously have
been taken. The overall mortality rate in humans is 38.8%. Many questions remain---
Source: ProMED-mail Michele Gale-Sinex. Communications manager
Center for Integrated Ag Systems, UW-Madison http://www.wisc.edu/
Health news
Foot-and-mouth disease http://www.bupa.co.uk/health_news/270201foot.html
Written by BUPA's medical team - 27 February 2001
The outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs and cows has raised the question of whether the disease can be transmitted to humans. The Public Health Laboratory Service (PHLS) is the national authority responsible for detecting, diagnosing, and monitoring infectious diseases in humans. Here we summarise its advice on foot-and-mouth disease. For further details, visit the PHLS home page, and go to 'news and events'.
· Documented cases of human infection with the disease are very rare. This is despite farmers having very regular contact with animals, and regular foot-and-mouth epidemics in other parts of the world. The last reported human case in the UK was 1967.
· This means that the risk of human infection is very small. And when infection has occurred, the symptoms are mild and clear up without the need for special treatment. There has been no recorded case of human-to-human transmission.
· The current priority is to prevent more animals from becoming infected. Animals are being destroyed to contain the spread of the disease. More information on the outbreak and foot and mouth disease in animals can be obtained on the Ministry of Agriculture Fisheries and Food (MAFF) web-site.
· Don't confuse foot-and-mouth disease with the human disease called "hand, foot-and-mouth" disease. This is a completely different, and usually mild, viral infection that mostly affects children. The virus responsible is an enterovirus called coxsackie A virus.
Alternative names: Coxsackievirus infection Symptoms: fever, sore throat, blisters or ulcers in the throat and mouth headache a rash with blisters on hands, feet and diaper area and appetite loss. (picture)- http://tray.dermatology.uiowa.edu/Coxsack01.htm
http://www.maff.gov.uk/inf/newsrel/2001/010323a.htm
FOOT AND MOUTH DISEASE 2001 - EPIDEMIOLOGICAL FORECASTS
NOTE FOR TECHNICAL BRIEFING, 23 March 2001
The outlook for FMD in Great Britain 2001 is for a very large epidemic. It will grow fast in the next few weeks and continue for many months. The number of cases will rise steeply with rapid expansion in the existing areas in spite of current controls. Estimates vary from 70 cases a day over the next two weeks to over 4000 cases by June 2001.
The Ministry of Agriculture and the Food Standards Agency held a joint meeting on 21 March to receive urgent advice from independent expert epidemiologists. Jim Scudamore (Chief Veterinary Officer), Sir John Krebs (Chairman FSA) and Professor David King (Chief Scientific Adviser) heard reports from Neil Ferguson and colleagues (Imperial College) Mark Woolhouse (University of Edinburgh) and opinions from experts at the Institute of Animal Health and Veterinary Laboratories Agency. The models and analysis use data recorded by MAFF up to 19 March 2001. A brief summary of the available findings is attached; Imperial plan to publish shortly.
The effect of controls on animal movement from 23 February was noted, but all the experts advised the need for further drastic action to bring disease under control. Otherwise FMD will become established in Britain.
Speedier slaughter of infected animals will help to reduce transmission. But this needs to be accompanied by immediate slaughter of all susceptible species around infected farms otherwise the final number of cases will be very high. Depending on the extent of these interventions, the combined strategy could reduce the epidemic substantially.
The experts said the last major epidemic in UK 1967/8 was quite different. In 2001 more of the country is affected, sheep are an important reservoir of infection, the scale of dissemination by animal movement was enormous early on. In addition the size of flocks and herds means the scale of operations is very big.
t is stressed that these are preliminary results, which do not represent a final view from the modelling teams, or from the Government.
The external teams have not yet had the opportunity to model the impact of FMD's geographic distribution, or of the characteristics of different species.
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ITN News:
Foot-and mouth is a devastating disease - but what do we know about its effects and how it spreads?
Source: http://cbc.ca/news/indepth/background/footandmouth.html
ITN's Nicholas Owen has been looking at a previous outbreak in 1967 and the issues involved:
Almost half a million animals were slaughtered as Britain struggled to contain its worst outbreak of foot- and-mouth.
It was a farming catastrophe. The total bill then was £150 million in slaughter costs and lost sales, plus £27 million paid in compensation to farmers.
From a single case in Shropshire, large areas of the country were eventually affected.
Foot and mouth is a disease that can affect all cloven hoof animals, like pigs, sheep, cattle, goats and deer.
Source: http://www3.itn.co.uk/news/20010221/britain/12footbcgrnd.shtm
Symptoms vary between species:
Cattle – Fever, dullness, off feed, shivering, reduced milk yield and sore teats in milking stock, tenderness of feet or lameness.
Sheep and goats – Fever, lameness, stiff legged walk, off colour, tendency to lie down.
Pigs – Fever, lameness, dullness, off feed.
(Comment When animals lay down, circulation is compromised further. A.K.F.)
A vaccine is available, but it is expensive, boosters are needed within a year and vaccinated animals endanger a country's disease-free status, which can take years to recover. Laboratory tests cannot distinguish between vaccinated animals and infected ones. There is no cure. It usually runs its course in two or three weeks, after which the great majority of animals recover naturally.
http://www2.warwickshire.gov.uk/Web/corporate/pages.nsf/Links/E708A22F2BC32BD480256A01004BE3E3
Warwickshire Web . Warwickshire County Council, Shire Hall, Warwick, CV34 4RA,
Q: Which animals are susceptible? Cattle, sheep, pigs and goats are susceptible and some wild animal such as hedgehogs, coypu, rats, deer and zoo animals including elephants.
Q: What are the symptoms? Vesicles (blisters) in the mouth or on the feet and other symptoms which vary somewhat but may be:
CATTLE - Fever, dullness, off feed, shivering, reduced milk yield and sore teats in milking stock, slavering, tenderness of feet or lameness.
SHEEP AND GOATS - Fever, lameness, stiff legged walk, off colour, tendency to lie down.
PIGS - Fever, lameness, dullness, off feed.
Q:What kinds of virus are there?
There are 7 main types: O, A, C, SAT.1, SAT.2, SAT.3, and Asia 1. Within each type there are many sub-types, e.g. O1 and A22. The average incubation period is 3-8 days but it can be shorter or may extend to 14 days or longer. It has been confirmed that the virus responsible for the present outbreak is the highly virulent pan-Asiatic O type. When animals recover from infection by one type of virus they have little or no protection against attacks by any one of the others.
Q: How is the virus destroyed?
It can be destroyed by heat, low humidity, or certain disinfectants, but it may remain active for a varying time in a suitable medium such as the frozen or chilled carcass of an infected animal and on contaminated objects.
SOURCE: http://www2.warwickshire.gov.uk/Web/corporate/pages.nsf/Links/E708A22F2BC32BD480256A01004BE3E3
Persistence of virus environment
AUSVETPLAN Foot-and-mouth disease
FMD virus may remain infective in the environment for several weeks and possibly longer in the presence of organic matter such as soil, manure, and dried animal secretions, or on chemically inert materials such as straw, hair and leather.
The virus has the following general properties (Donaldson 1987).
1 ) The virus is most stable at pH 7.4–7.6 but will survive at pH 6.7–9.5 if °C or lower. Below pH 5.0 or above pH 11.0the temperature is reduced to inactivation is very rapid.
2) Raising the temperature reduces the survival time. At temperatures below °C for 30freezing point the virus is stable almost indefinitely. Exposure to 5 minutes is sufficient to destroy most strains although there is some variation between strains in resistance to temperature and/or pH stress.
3) Sunlight has little or no direct effect on infectivity; any loss is due to secondary drying
and temperature.
4) The survival of airborne virus is mainly influenced by relative humidity (RH) with good
survival above 60% RH and rapid inactivation below 60% RH (Donaldson 1972).
Source: http://www.aahc.com.au/ausvetplan/fmdfinal.pdf
OFFICE INTERNATIONAL DES EPIZOOTIES
Organisation mondiale de la santé animale World organisation for animal health Organización mundial de sanidad animal
Q: Which other countries have recently had FMD? (Foot and mouth disease)
Argentina : 6 April 2001 Bhutan : 10 November 2000 Brazil : 19 January 2001 Colombia : 29 December 2000 Egypt : 15 September 2000 France : 6 April 2001 Georgia : 23 June 2000 Greece : 2 February 2001 Iran : 15 October 1999 Ireland : 6 April 2001 Israel : 9 February 2001 Japan : 29 September 2000 Kazakhstan : 28 July 2000 Korea : 18 August 2000 Kuwait : 1 September 2000 Malawi : 23 March 2001 Malaysia : 11 February 2000 Mauritania : 8 December 2000 Mongolia : 23 March 2001 Namibia : 27 October 2000 Netherlands : 6 April 2001 Peru : 14 January 2000 Russia : 28 April 2000 Saudi Arabia : 14 April 2000 South Africa : 9 March 2001 Swaziland : 9 March 2001 Taipei China : 9 March 2001 Tajikistan : 25 August 2000 Turkey : 24 December 1999 United Kingdom / Great Britain : 6 April 2001 United Kingdom / Northern Ireland : 9 March 2001 Uruguay : 26 January 2001 Zambia : 1 September 2000 Zimbabwe : 4 February 2000 Source: http://www.oie.int/eng/info/hebdo/a_dsum.htm
COMMENT: How can we ever expect to contain foot and mouth when it is already established throughout the world? A.K.F.
Management control and prevention SOURCE: http://WWW.ThePigSite.Com
Vaccination (where applicable)
· In endemic and high risk areas routine vaccination may be practised mainly to protect the breeding stock.
· Most FMD vaccines are produced in cell suspension cultures and inactivated by ethylenamine derivatives. An adjuvant is added to make them more potent. Oily adjuvants are used in swine.
· Vaccination in pigs is problematical. This is because protection is short-lived lasting only about six months. It is also partly because there are seven serotypes of FMD and protection against one leaves animals susceptible to the others. Vaccines must be multivalent (several serotypes) in most endemic regions. Since FMD is largely a winter disease, vaccination should be carried out in the autumn.
· Serotypes - There are 7 main serotypes: A, O, C, SAT 1, SAT 2, SAT 3 and Asia 1. There are also many strains within serotypes. Careful selection of the strains for incorporation in vaccines is essential to ensure they are effective.
From: Martin Rowley(martinr@booty.demon.co.uk) Subject: Foot and Mouth Disease ... and the weather
Newsgroups: uk.sci.weather Date: 2001-02-24 09:50:28 PST
I note that there has not been one post yet in this newsgroup regarding what may turn out to be a major disaster for the farming community in the UK (and a major drain on the Exchequer) .. the current outbreak of Foot and Mouth Disease. (FMD). For those too young to remember, FMD has integral links with synoptic meteorology. For those who have them available, I recommend the edition of 'Weather' noted below. From that I quote the following:-
" The recent epidemic, in which over 2300 farms were infected between October 1967 and June 1968, was the most serious ever experienced in Britain. The Meteorological Office, in close collaboration with the Central Veterinary Laboratory, Weybridge, has investigated the possibility that meteorological factors were responsible for some of the spread. The results of this analysis suggest that most of the spread was due to the wind, and hence stricter controls on movement would have had little effect. Moreover, it appears likely that precipitation played an important part in spread over distances greater than a few kilometres .... " (my note: note the phrase ... 'most of the spread' etc.)
"Conclusions:
1. A large proportion of the spread during the 1967-8 epidemic was due to the wind.
2. On at least one occasion, the virus was carried over 100km by the wind.
3. During anticyclonic weather with calm or light winds, airborne spread it largely confined to a distance of about 4 km from a source.
4. Precipitation plays some part in increasing the amount of deposition.
5. It is possible that precipitation is essential for the occurrence of appreciable deposition beyond about 10 km."
If the origin of the *current* outbreak (as noted in today's news) is in fact at the farm in Northumberland, and that conditions were conducive to FMD viral generation at least a month ago, then the present stringent movement controls (although essential), may prove to give a false sense of security ... the viral agents may have long been dispersed by both dry and wet deposition over large areas of the country. Wet deposition being much more effective and the primary vector for infection in the 10's of km downwind range. Over the past couple of weeks, the wind over NE England has 'boxed the compass', albeit with a bias to drift towards the east or north-east (over the North Sea).
However, for a few days around the 8th/9th and again on the 18th/19th, winds had a high northerly component. We have also had south-ward moving frontal bands which could be agents to 'sweep up' the viral agents (minute droplets containing the disease), depositing them further south in precipitation. Also note that the otherwise prevailing west or SW winds would aid vectoring of the disease from, for example, the Isle of Wight farm.
There are some similarities with the present day meteorological situation. The outbreak in the late 60's came in the third year of a run of three 'wet' years (we have just had 3 wet years.. notably so in the case of 2000), and the September & October of 1967 had above average rainfall (using the EWP series), with October approaching twice-average rainfall. (Also, as an aside, the late 60's outbreak also started in pigs before crossing to other species).
The news media aren't making much of this aspect at the moment (just mentioning the wind as an aside), but I fancy that we may have a major problem here as the source was not identified soon enough, allowing what I believe to be acknowledged to be the major vector agents (wind & precipitation), to have full effect for over a month.
Reference:
'Weather', June, 1969 "Effects of wind and precipitation on the spread of Foot-and-mouth disease.
PB Wright, Meteorological Office, Bracknell. pp204-213 Martin Rowley http://www.booty.demon.co.uk/metindex.htm
Received from HM Stationary Office on the 24th April 2001
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Relevant extracts from:
REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE OF INQUIRY ON
Foot-and-Mouth Disease
1968
By command of Her Majesty April 1969
PART 1: Command. 3999 SBN 10 139990 1 HM stationary Office
Factors involved in the introduction and spread of disease
Page15:
27. Since 1954 there has been further evidence in support of the theory that foot-and-mouth disease, (FMD), virus is transmitted in air currents. Recent evidence from Denmark suggests that the virus can be windborne for up to eighteen miles over sea and in exceptional circumstances, over twice that distance.
Danish veterinary officials thought that windborne infection, associated with darkness and damp weather, was the most frequent cause of primary outbreaks in Denmark.
28. In Great Britain much work has been done by the Meteorological Office, (MET Office), and the Ministry Of Agriculture to examine the general hypothesis that meteorological conditions could have favoured the spread of the virus from Continental sources on the occasions of past outbreaks of the disease in Great Britain- and to assess the effects of meteorological conditions on secondary spread in this country. An examination by MET, of all primary outbreaks since 1937, except minor ones, has shown that in every case of multiple and simultaneous outbreaks on the south and east coasts, suitable wind tracts could be found leading back to known infected areas in Europe. It was noted that in the area of the outbreaks, rain, which could have precipitated the virus, occurred at the relevant time.
An alternative interpretation by the Microbiological Research Establishment was that the outbreaks could be better accounted for by the favourable effects on the viability of the virus in the high humidity prevailing at the time.
29. The MET Office also examined the effect of meteorological conditions on secondary outbreaks of the disease. This was done in five areas: Cheshire (1952); Shropshire (1961); Northumberland (1966); Hampshire (1967), and Cheshire (1967). (The last of these studies had advanced to the point of examining those outbreaks during the initial stages of the epidemic for which there were very few possible authenticated sources; further work is in progress.)
The results of the examination suggested that wind and rain might have played a part in the spread of the disease.
In general the examination showed that-
i. few outbreaks occurred upwind of any known source:
ii. outbreaks were limited to about 2 ½ miles downward in dry weather;
iii. Outbreaks extended further downwind in wet weather and even further in periods of light rain;
iv. Most outbreaks were downwind of more than one possible source of infection on several occasions during rainy periods;
v. Selecting the most likely sources of infection, the percentages of total outbreaks downwind, in relation to distance, were as follows- 33% within 1 ¼ miles; 60% within 3 miles 75% within 6miles; 85% within 12 ½ miles; 90% within 18 ½ miles 95% within 31 miles. (these percentages did not include the Cheshire 1967 epidemic);
One case might have been associated with airborne spread of the virus at a distance of fifty miles;
vi. in all five areas there were a number of secondary outbreaks during the second week following primary infection; after dry weather the number was low and after wet weather it was high;
vii. in all five areas there was a decline in the number of new outbreaks during a period of dry weather.
The MET Office concludes that the amount of spread due to meteorological causes could be as high as 95% and was unlikely to be less than 80%. They also concluded that spread did not occur unless favourable wind and rain conditions prevailed.
30. The evidence suggests that viruses contained in airborne particles will travel in a viable form in the air for distances of up to thirty miles or more depending upon their particle size, the strength of the wind and other factors.
Transmission of airborne virus by night appears to be a greater threat than by day because of the absence of ultraviolet light. The Microbiological Research Establishment suggested that there might be other influences at work in the survival of foot-and-mouth disease virus about which conclusive answers are not at present available. For example, some viruses are known to survive better in association with large particles rather than small ones. Atmospheric relative humidity is a very important factor; high relative humidity appears to prolong the survival of viruses in aerosols.
The salt and protein content of the material in which the viruses are conveyed and the extent of atmospheric pollution might exert an influence on survival. Although heavy rain may aid deposition of the viruses, experiments suggest that it may clear the atmosphere of noxious substances deleterious to the viruses and so prolong their survival.
31. The releases of foot-and-mouth-disease virus into the air may be brought about in many ways. Present work at the Animal Virus Research Institute on the presence of virus in the air of animal houses containing infected animals shows that the amount of excreted virus is fairly uniform, starting before the vesicles appear and continuing thereafter. Movement of infected animals or the disturbance of infected materials could create an aerosol containing the virus. Animals either housed or at pasture can be infected by inhalation of airborne virus. It has been suggested that the virus might be drawn up into the air and carried to other sites in thermal air currents generated when infected carcasses are burned. In this case the virus source might not be confined to the carcasses; contaminated dust particles from the ground surrounding the pyre might also be drawn up into the air and carried away by the wind.
During the 1967 /1968 epidemic in the West Midlands large volumes of air were sampled at points 100 and 300 yards down from fires used to destroy-(Page 25 same document)- carcasses on two farms. No virus was isolated from the samples but it was thought that the efficiency of the technique employed might not have been high enough to give significant results.
32. Airborne particles can be deposited by gravity, by downward diffusion of air, by impaction on a solid object or in falling raindrop. Large particles (greater than 10 microns) will be deposited close to the source of infection. Virus deposited on pasture or fodder can cause infection when ingested. Smaller particles, on the other hand, will travel in an aerosol and be little effected by gravity or rainfall (other than very heavy rainfall), The probability of infection by inhalation will depend on the concentration of virus-containing particles in the air. It will also depend on the viability of the virus which will be influenced by a number of factors, the most important probably being relative humidity.
43. It is possible that birds are responsible for the introduction of foot-and-mouth disease into countries and for its subsequent spread. It is known that foot-and-mouth disease virus can be conveyed on the feet or feathers of birds and can be excreted by them after ingestion of material contaminated with the virus, but there is no evidence that birds can become infected with the virus.
The Gowers Committee pointed out that the virus had been recovered from the feet and feathers of a bird contaminated experimentally as long as 91 hours after contamination. Also it was reported that starlings given the virus by mouth had excreted it in their faeces for a period of 10-26 hours. It is thus probable that birds may spread the virus and so cause secondary outbreaks.
They are likely to constitute a greater risk if they are carrion eaters such as crows and seagulls. In the recent past there has been considerable misgiving about attributing primary outbreaks with bird migration and it has been suggested that many of the outbreaks so attributed may have been due to windborne virus. Recent Danish research evidence suggests that some of the outbreaks previously presumed to have been associated with bird migration to that country cannot be related to migration patterns.
REPORT OF THE COMMITTEE OF INQUIRY ON
Foot-and-Mouth Disease
1968
By command of Her Majesty December 1969
PART 2: Command. 4225 SBN 10 142250 4 HM stationary Office
Chapter V1: Postscript to part 1 of the Committee’s Report
Page 93: (a) General
223. Since the submission of Part1 of our report on 7th March, 1969 considerable advances have been made in research on foot-and-mouth disease. Many of which have followed the opportunity given to the staff of the Animal Virus Research Institute at Pirbright, Surrey in the 1967/1968 epidemic to go into the field for the first time. The Institute already had considerable epidemiological experience in countries overseas where the disease is both endemic and epidemic. However, the study of the disease in Great Britain, with its completely susceptible livestock population, presented entirely different problems which in the event were not solved by field investigations.
Nevertheless, the opportunities for study of the epidemiological problems presented by the epidemic made it possible to define a number of problems more clearly. They have since been studied intensively by the staff of the Institute in collaboration with veterinary staff of the Ministry of Agriculture, the Microbiological Research Establishment, the Meteorological Office, and the Atomic Energy Research Establishment. Some of the not inconsiderable results obtained so far are given in the following paragraphs. In general they reinforce the conclusions drawn in Part1 of our Report. It should be emphasised that the work provided information on how individual and small groups of animals behave under experimental conditions but could not show precisely how animals would react to the disease under normal farming conditions.
(b) Characteristics of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Virus
224. Strains of foot-and-mouth disease virus from the 1967/1968 epidemic were studied in susceptible animals under experimental conditions. In brief, the experiments indicated that:
(c) the strain of the virus isolated during the 1967/1968 epidemic was particularly stable under certain laboratory conditions.
225. Speculation arose as to whether these characteristics contributed to the serious nature of the 1967/1968 epidemic. Since then, however, other strains of foot-and-mouth disease virus have been similarly examined and it is clear that the early excretion shown by the 1967/1968 strain is common to a number of strains isolated both in the country and abroad. It was found that strains can nevertheless show considerable variation in such properties as stability under laboratory conditions and it may be that such characteristics will provide useful markers in future in identifying the origin of strains responsible for outbreaks.
Page 94: (c) Windborne Transmission of Foot-and-Mouth Disease virus
228. Naturally it has not been possible to carry out experiments in the field to investigate the transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus by wind because of the obvious risks involved. However, experiments in the laboratory have shown that the virus in the aerosol form is very fragile when humidity is low and persists for long periods when the humidity is high.
There was evidence from the 1967/1968 epidemic to indicate that rain-bearing winds played an important part in spreading the disease. Furthermore retrospective studies have been made of previous outbreaks of the disease in relation to the meteorological conditions existing at the time and these support the important part played by wind and humidity in the spread of infection.
For example, in one of the studies made, of an outbreak, which occurred in East Keswick (between Wetherby and Leeds) in October 1960. Meteorological experts, without any knowledge of the pattern of the spread, on the basis of the wind tracts and humidity as well as other weather conditions prevailing at the time, indicated where the outbreaks should have occurred. Their indications were correct but of equal importance, they were also able to indicate correctly those areas, which remained free of disease. It is considered that the virus can be carried by wind, if the conditions are ideal, over distances of more than sixty miles. This approach will be valuable in dealing with future outbreaks particularly in indicating where to look for secondary outbreaks associated with wind spread once a primary outbreak is reported.
Signed: Northumberland (Chairman) Anthony Cripps; David G. Evans; Henry Plumb; Eric L. Thomas; David Walker; William L. Weipers; John N Jotcham (Secretary); Melba D. White (Assistant secretary) 3rd November, 1969
Foot & Mouth linked by weather patterns in 1967, 68 and this epidemic! (Does the evidence outweigh coincidence?)
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The word endemic also implies that the virus is maintained in the wild population of animals. Sorry if this was taken out of context.
However calling me a liar over something as minor as a misunderstanding tells people a lot more about you BC than it does about me.
I Bet you wouldnt say this to my face!
Smallpox essentially only had one host- humans.
It was still described as endemic in some areas before it was wiped out. Your deffinition of endemic isn't the usual one. It's essentially the opposite of the one given here.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Endemic_(epidemiology)
Measles and chickenpox (ironicly, given the name) are only commonly found in humans. These diseases too are endemic in our population.
Even the common cold is an example that shows that you are simply wrong.
Foot and Mouth Disease is endemic in some places, not because there are wild hosts for it, but because it's endemic in the cattle heards. The virus is bad for animals but not usually fatal.
I called you a liar because you said something that wasn't true. What it says about me is that I don't accept people putting words in my mouth. I never said anything about wild animals. Your point was a total strawman. You ought to know better.
A preference for truth over falsehood is fairly common among people, particularly scientists.
I'd be less likely to say it to your face, but only because I doubt you would have made the claim you did if we were face to face.
Incidentally, this " FOOT & MOUTH IS LINKED IRREFUTABLY TO THE WEATHER!"
Is also untrue, because everyone here has seen the refutation.
Anyway, those papers say a lot about the spread of the virus- bad weather has an effect.
They don't say that the disease is caused by bad weather.
The simple fact is that we often have bad Summers, but we seldom have FMD so it's logically impossible for bad Summers to cause FMD.
If we get an outbreak this year it will be due to a breach of quarantine.
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I have never said that the virus is caused by bad weather anywhere. I refrain from calling you a liar. In fact it never entered my head to call you a liar over something so trivial.
The link to the weather is in how the weather lowers the circulation and body temperature making the animals more susceptible to infectious diseases. This explains why the infected animals recovered when they were housed in clean dry laboratory conditions.
The common cold shows exactly how this theory is correct. It is no coincidence that when the weather takes a turn for the worse, the UK population begins to suffer from colds, influenza, coughs, aches and pains with annual predictability.
RE Endemic:
Endemic according to your reference means it belongs there and is also said to be exclusive to the area. In the case of foot and mouth diseases and all virus that have the ability to mutate and be transmitted by air or by birds and wildlife, it can hardly fit in this case.
Endemic therefore as used in reference to a pathogen fits more with my interpretation than it does with the ones on Wiki.
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This Bluetongue disease has come over from a "protected" area in
France to the Uk and it can be a fatal disease in sheep also in goats:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7583948.stm
BBC News:
Bluetongue cases discovered
Bluetongue was first reported in the UK in 2007
Two cases of animal disease bluetongue have been detected in imported rams, the Department for Environment,
Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.
The rams were imported from the same premises in the bluetongue-restricted zone in France.
The cases were found on premises near Lewes, East Sussex, and Hemel Hempstead, Hertfordshire.
Defra said there was no evidence the disease was being circulated by midges in the areas where cases were found.
The cases were detected as a result of post-import testing on all animals coming from the Continent which are susceptible to the disease, according to Defra.
Bluetongue, which can be fatal to animals, is transmitted between animals such as cows and sheep by midges.
Farmers throughout the protection zone should vaccinate as soon as vaccine is available to them
Alick Simmons
Deputy chief vet
______________________________________
The first outbreak of the disease in the UK hit the country in summer 2007.
A mass vaccination campaign against the disease began in April.
Some 21.5 million doses of vaccine have been made available to farmers.
Deputy Chief Vet Alick Simmons said the disease "has recently been confirmed as circulating this year in the Netherlands and large areas of France, despite vaccination programmes being undertaken".
"Similar re-emergence of the disease in the UK would also not be unexpected in the coming weeks," he said.
The bluetongue protection zone, which has kept in place to allow for vaccination, covers most of England.
It is legally permissible to import animals from France's protection zone.
Mr Simmons said the latest cases emphasised the need for farmers to be aware of the risks of importing animals from within restricted zones and the importance of vaccination.
"Farmers throughout the protection zone should vaccinate as soon as vaccine is available to them," he said.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/cumbria/7581613.stm
It seems that it's the wet weather that's re-produced this animal disease and not FMD but just as worrying for the
farmers I'd guess.
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Wiki's example is
"In epidemiology, an infection is said to be endemic (from Greek en- in or within + demos people) in a population when that infection is maintained in the population without the need for external inputs. For example, chickenpox is endemic (steady state) in the UK,"
Nothing to do with places. FMD is the same in farm herds in some parts of the world. No need for wild animalss to be involved- they might be, but it's not a requirement.
Anyway, we just have to wait. If there's another outbreak without a breach of quarantine then you are right.
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endemic
1. Relating to a disease or pathogen that is found in or confined to a particular location, region, or people. Malaria, for example, is endemic to tropical regions.
http://www.thefreedictionary.com/endemic
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Take the particularly nasty disease "made-up-itis" as an example.
Wherever you find it, it found in that location or region. It is therfore endemic by the definition above. Interestingly, it remains endemic even if there's only one case ever in the world.
None of this relates to your original point about wild animals because they are not needed as a reservoir of the virus where there are infected farm animals. Where there are no such infected animals (such as in the UK at the moment) there are no outbreaks.
Anyway, we just have to wait. If there's another outbreak without a breach of quarantine then you are right.
Re bluetongue
"It seems that it's the wet weather that's re-produced this animal disease "
No, it seems that importing infected animals from France did that.
"Two cases of animal disease bluetongue have been detected in imported rams"
Of course a disease with a mobile vector (the midge) could cross the channel anyway if the wind blew strongly). The weather will affect the spread of that disease of course.
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RE Bluetongue: midges live by shallow water and breed prolifically in wet weather where lots of stagnant shallow water benefits the larvae. So in this case the weather can be responsible for providing the stepping stones / puddles for the infected midge to move rapidly over many miles. Therefore the weather. The barrier in this case was the sea and bad policies have enabled the infection to cross the expanse of salty water to our land.
In the F&M outbreaks we see vets, farmers, soldiers, police, politicians, press and the public having to wash their footwear and hose down vehicles from infected areas. This says something about the virus having a mechanism to transfer from one source to infect another without the need for an animal. Why can’t this happen in the wild animal populations and among the bird and insect populations? It can and does, otherwise these disinfection controls would be deemed useless. (They may or may not be useless) But for now lets assume they are useful in containing the virus.
This would then show that the virus can no longer be considered as either indigenous or endemic as carriers, be it footwear or a hoofed or clawed foot the virus finds a way to move around. Why else would we need 2.5 million antiviral injections for bluetongue. Which incidentally it was also predicted in the theory that other more serious virus will show up in the UK sooner rather than later due to the weather patterns. Admittedly the virus has been traced back to a source. But should we experience severe weather this winter the contamination area is likely to expand rapidly.
You say the wild animals are not required. Maybe they are not, but they are among us and we are never more than a few yards from a rodent and rodents like many other creatures carry their own hosts like fleas and ticks.
I suspect that the UK is not as free from infections like foot and mouth disease as politicians would have us believe.
IA few days ago someone informed me of truck loads of carcases being driven along lanes in the farming community dripping fluids along the tarmac that sheep and cattle use to move from field to field. This happened before a major outbreak. It does not take much thought to realise that should these slaughtered animals have been infected prior to the media being informed about a F&M outbreak this careless act probably contributed and compounded the cross contamination. The person that told me this did not mention that these animals came from a farm close by. Which leaves us with some serious questions about what these animals were infected with and why were they being transported through countryside that was as yet unaffected?
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> News
Wales gets go ahead for bluetongue vaccination
29/08/2008 17:23:00
FWi
Welsh farmers have been called on to vaccinate their livestock at the earliest opportunity following conformation that the whole of Wales will be declared a bluetongue protection zone from Monday 1 September.
Farmers' Union of Wales president Gareth Vaughan urged farmers to vaccinate stock after DEFRA announced that eight cases of bluetongue had been confirmed in imported cattle in Tiverton, Devon.
Mr Vaughan said: "For the first time this year we have seen cases of BTV8 in the UK, with three infected premises confirmed in the past week. The disease is now on our doorstep and from Monday Welsh farmers will be able to take action to minimise the risk to their livestock.
"I therefore urge farmers who have not yet ordered vaccine from their vets to do so immediately. It is expected that vaccine supplies will become available within days, with further batches arriving over the coming weeks."
The announcement coincides with Wales’ busiest time in terms of crucial livestock sales, which are desperately needed after the disruption caused by foot and mouth disease last year.
http://www.fwi.co.uk/Articles/2008/08/29/111891/wales-gets-go-ahead-for-bluetongue-vaccination.html
DELAWARE: Insect-borne virus found in deer
http://www.delmarvanow.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080826/DW01/80826024/-1/DW
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Oh look! A conspiracy theory.
"I suspect that the UK is not as free from infections like foot and mouth disease as politicians would have us believe."
FMD is a contageous notifiable disease with clearly defined symptoms which are known to all farmers and vets. But Andrew thinks it is kept a secret.
Does anyone agree with him?
Cosmored, perhaps?
While we are at it, this
"In the F&M outbreaks we see vets, farmers, soldiers, police, politicians, press and the public having to wash their footwear and hose down vehicles from infected areas. This says something about the virus having a mechanism to transfer from one source to infect another without the need for an animal. Why can’t this happen in the wild animal populations and among the bird and insect populations? It can and does, otherwise these disinfection controls would be deemed useless. (They may or may not be useless) But for now lets assume they are useful in containing the virus.
This would then show that the virus can no longer be considered as either indigenous or endemic as carriers, be it footwear or a hoofed or clawed foot the virus finds a way to move around. Why else would we need 2.5 million antiviral injections for bluetongue."
is a non sequiteur. It starts off by making observations about FMD, then uses thenm to try to prove something about bluetongue.
FMD is a virus, it's small and so it can be accidentally carried about by birds other aniimals and people. Of these peiople are by far the most mobile (people often travel hundreds of miles in a day- animals generally don't).
That makes cleaning boots and such a good idea. We can't do a lot about the birds but we can reduce the likelihood of infection buy restricting the movement of cattle. We can also make sure that farms near the infected animals are kept under close observation. If there's any infection there the cattle are destroyed.
What Andrew seems not to understand is that there is a difference between a host and a vector.
Birds can transmit the virus, carried on their feet. However if the virus isn't taken to another cow it dies out. Imagine that we had wild cows - these too could get the virus and it would circulate among them in much the same way as measles does in people. Contact between these animals and farmed cows would mean that the farm animals would keep getting infected.
The wild cows would act as a reservoir for the disease because it infects them. It doesn't infect birds so there's no reservoir of infection.
That's why the disease is not endemic in the UK.
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Don't be silly BC. Conspiracy theory? I am stating that the virus probably has other hosts that maintain it until the climate takes a turn for the worse. If this were not the case, then Foot and mouth would have become extinct a long long time ago. The view that politicians probably kept the lid on the previous outbreaks until the evidence overwhelmed them is not a conspiracy theory but a probability.
The Blue tongue outbreak was used to show how weather affects animals and animal health and how it can affect a known or unknown disease / pathogen / parasite.
This is about how the body behaves under the stress of high humidity and how it prevents us from fighting infections, but more to the point how it prevents cattle, pigs and sheep from remaining healthy.
There was a chemist on the F&M team that screwed up big style. So climb down off your degree for a while and read the text with an open mind.
Oh look! A conspiracy theory.
"I suspect that the UK is not as free from infections like foot and mouth disease as politicians would have us believe."
FMD is a contageous notifiable disease with clearly defined symptoms which are known to all farmers and vets. But Andrew thinks it is kept a secret.
Does anyone agree with him?
Cosmored, perhaps?
While we are at it, this
"In the F&M outbreaks we see vets, farmers, soldiers, police, politicians, press and the public having to wash their footwear and hose down vehicles from infected areas. This says something about the virus having a mechanism to transfer from one source to infect another without the need for an animal. Why can’t this happen in the wild animal populations and among the bird and insect populations? It can and does, otherwise these disinfection controls would be deemed useless. (They may or may not be useless) But for now lets assume they are useful in containing the virus.
This would then show that the virus can no longer be considered as either indigenous or endemic as carriers, be it footwear or a hoofed or clawed foot the virus finds a way to move around. Why else would we need 2.5 million antiviral injections for bluetongue."
is a non sequiteur. It starts off by making observations about FMD, then uses thenm to try to prove something about bluetongue.
FMD is a virus, it's small and so it can be accidentally carried about by birds other aniimals and people. Of these peiople are by far the most mobile (people often travel hundreds of miles in a day- animals generally don't).
That makes cleaning boots and such a good idea. We can't do a lot about the birds but we can reduce the likelihood of infection buy restricting the movement of cattle. We can also make sure that farms near the infected animals are kept under close observation. If there's any infection there the cattle are destroyed.
What Andrew seems not to understand is that there is a difference between a host and a vector.
Birds can transmit the virus, carried on their feet. However if the virus isn't taken to another cow it dies out. Imagine that we had wild cows - these too could get the virus and it would circulate among them in much the same way as measles does in people. Contact between these animals and farmed cows would mean that the farm animals would keep getting infected.
The wild cows would act as a reservoir for the disease because it infects them. It doesn't infect birds so there's no reservoir of infection.
That's why the disease is not endemic in the UK.
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In order for there to be a background level of FMD in this country the politicians, the farmers and the vets would all have to agree to keep it a secret. That's a conspiracy.
"I am stating that the virus probably has other hosts that maintain it until the climate takes a turn for the worse. If this were not the case, then Foot and mouth would have become extinct a long long time ago. "
This is England- our climate always takes a turn for the worse. As I write this the papers are discussing whether or not this is the wettest August on record- but there is no outbreak.
If there were any wild host for the disease we would have an outbreak of FMD now and there isn't one.
As you steadfastly reuse to believe (in spite of the evidence) in this country FMD is extinct so your own reasoning shows that your hypothesis is false.
Incidentally, since I don't have a degree it's a rather pointless ad hom attack to say that I should climb down off it.
Even if I had one, this sentence "There was a chemist on the F&M team that screwed up big style. So climb down off your degree for a while and read the text with an open mind." makes no sense- just because one chemist screwed up doesn't mean anything about the performance of other chemists.
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Please explain how the deer managed to avoid the virus? Did they slaughter them all? Have they antibodies now and who inocculated the deer population? What about the wild boar population?
Foot and mouth virus spreads to wild deerProtesters march to halt mass slaughter
Special report: foot and mouth diseaseAnthony Browne, environment correspondent The Observer, Sunday April 22 2001 Article historyThe foot and mouth virus has passed into Britain's wild deer population, making the Government's policy of mass slaughter of farmyard livestock futile.
There have been several cases of vets clinically identifying the disease in wild deer, some of which have died from it. There have also been many reports from Devon, Cumbria and Northumberland of deer limping and exhibiting other unusual behaviour linked to the disease.
Veterinary experts say it is impossible to vaccinate or cull wild deer and once infected they will act as a reservoir for the virus, repeatedly re-infecting livestock. It will make it almost imposs-ible for Britain to rid itself of the virus, until it dies out naturally in wild deer, which could take years.
Last week a roe deer was found dead at Kirk House Farm near Penrith, which had already been confirmed as having foot and mouth in livestock. Local vet Matt Coulston, of Frame Swift and Partners, identified lesions on all four feet and in its mouth. 'It had signs consistent with foot and mouth disease,' he told The Observer. 'There have been loads of people round here reporting dead deer and sick deer. People suspect that Maff [the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food] are ignoring it because it is difficult to deal with.'
The British Deer Society has been flooded with reports from deer experts reporting the animals limping and being covered with lumps. Mike Squire, secretary of the society, said: 'We find it difficult to believe that deer exposed to the same pastures as infected cattle and sheep have not been exposed to foot and mouth disease.'
A Maff spokesman said yesterday that government vets had tested nine deer for foot and mouth and none had been found positive: 'So far there have been no confirmed cases of foot and mouth in deer.'
However, the Maff vets use the Elisa test, which was developed on cattle and sheep and is not thought to be so effective on deer. Research from Russia also suggests it is very difficult to test whether deer have been infected with foot and mouth from blood samples.
In 1974 the government Animal Health Institute in Pirbright kept a number of deer in proximity to sheep with foot and mouth for two hours in a controlled experiment. The scientists found all six native species of deer contracted the disease, and several died.
In an outbreak of foot and mouth in California in 1924, the outbreak spread rapidly to deer. Slaughtermen culled 22,000 deer in the Stanislav National Park and found that, of those, 2,279 were infected.
Dr John Fletcher, past president of the Veterinary Deer Society, said: 'It's highly likely the virus has entered the wild deer population - the deer are in abundance and graze in close contact with sheep and cattle. Nothing has been confirmed, but there is an abundance of anecdotal evidence, and it would be quite surprising if it hasn't entered the population.'
Simon Booth, director of the Deer Inititiative, the government advisory body on deer in England, said: 'There have been unconfirmed cases of it appearing in deer.'
Deer experts have been calling on Maff for weeks to conduct a selective deer cull to ascertain the extent of the disease and to draw up contingency plans. However, Maff ignored their warnings until it called an emergency meeting on Friday. It is now considering lifting the ban on deer-stalking to provide the carcasses for tests.
The existence of the disease in Britain's 1.5 million wild deer population means the policy of mass slaughter of more than a million farm animals and the closure of most of the British countryside has been pointless. Wild deer are so evasive and diffi cult to track down that it is impossible to vaccinate or cull them. Shooting at herds of deer will simply cause them to run, spreading the disease further.
The deer population will harbour the disease before building up resistance and it eventually dies out. This could take years. Until then the deer will repeatedly re-infect livestock and, with the disease endemic in Britain, meat exports will continue to be banned.
Squire said: 'We're looking at a huge slaughter and cost to the taxpayer for no purpose. How do you think the public will react when they know that?'
Booth said: 'If it's in the deer population, it will mean the mass slaughter policy will not work.' Confirm-ation of foot and mouth among deer will force the Government to abandon the mass slaughter programme, a move that has been steadfastly resisted by the National Union of Farmers. 'It will force their hand into vaccination,' said Fletcher.
www.bds.org.uk British Deer Society http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2001/apr/22/politics.footandmouth
http://www.thedeerinitiative.co.uk/pdf/fmdguide.pdf
From The TimesAugust 7, 2007
Finding the real culprit for foot-and-mouth
Sir, In all the speculation about how the foot-and-mouth virus might have been transmitted from the facilities at Pirbright to the cattle in Normandy (report, August 6 ), one possible vector seems to have gone unmentioned. Holders of allotments, adjacent to the field where the affected cattle were kept, find they are plagued by wild deer. Not only do the cultivators see deerslots everywhere and find their crops chewed, but they also need to check after each visit that they have not picked up ticks.
All species of deer in Britain, particularly roe and muntjac, are susceptible to the foot-and-mouth virus and excrete it at much the same levels as sheep and cattle (Gibbs et al, The Veterinary Record, Vol 96, Issue 26, 558-63, 1975). Between Pirbright and Normandy, the countryside is heavily wooded and there are plenty of woodland corridors, ideal for deer, between more open fields. Is this aspect of biosecurity being addressed?
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/comment/letters/article2210565.ece
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"Please explain how the deer managed to avoid the virus?"
They are not generally found on cattle or sheep farms where the virus was which helps; of course there were exceptions.
"Veterinary experts say it is impossible to vaccinate or cull wild deer and once infected they will act as a reservoir for the virus, repeatedly re-infecting livestock. It will make it almost imposs-ible for Britain to rid itself of the virus, until it dies out naturally in wild deer, which could take years. "
It clearly didn't take years, but the disease died out just as the experts predicted.
"Booth said: 'If it's in the deer population, it will mean the mass slaughter policy will not work.' "
The mass slaughter policy worked so either this guy was wrong or the disease didn't reach the general deer population.
"A Maff spokesman said yesterday that government vets had tested nine deer for foot and mouth and none had been found positive: 'So far there have been no confirmed cases of foot and mouth in deer.' "
Looks like that's the reason.
Perhaps it's related to this fact
"In an outbreak of foot and mouth in California in 1924, the outbreak spread rapidly to deer. Slaughtermen culled 22,000 deer in the Stanislav National Park and found that, of those, 2,279 were infected."
so 90% of the deer didn't get the disease.
The other way to look at this is to hypothesis that there is a reservoir of infection in the UK- lets say in deeer for the sake of a concrete example.
OK this is known to be a virrulent disease- it has clear symptoms which, at least since the 2 recent outbreaks, anyone involved in farming would recognise. Even if they didn't spot that it was FMD they would certainly see that the animals were ill and some would proably die.
While it's not very common for deer and cattle or sheep to share pastures it not unheard of.
The experiment you mention shows that deer can catch FMD from other animals so it's fair to assume that the cattle or sheep would catch it from deer if the deer were infected.
If there is a stock of deer carrying the virus in the UK and given that this wet summer has been as good a set of conditions for the spread of the virus as you are likely to ghet, why hasn't there been an outbreak.
Let's be clear about this- if the virus is there you are going to get infected farm animals- the infection spreads like wildfire. It spread quickly even wnen ther are precautions in place to reduce the spread.
In a very short time there would be a massive outbreak. Sick animals would produce little or no milk and they would not get passed as fit for use as food.
How in the name of all that's holy do you think that this could happen and that we wouldn't notice?
Or are you going to say that the outbreak has been covered up by the men in black?
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Yes they were found on the farms where cattle and sheep are kept! Deer are everywhere where there is woodland. My wife and I regularly see them in Devon and have noticed their marks on trees in other areas.
Remember it is being said that it takes widespread prolonged flooding or prolonged high humidity to bring the animals down to the point that their own immune system fails and the virus becomes a problem. Under dry conditions the virus quickly retreats, presumably because the animals become more efficient at fighting the infection.
Testing a small group of deer to see if the whole population of deer may be harbouring this virus is unscientific and destined to produce a convenient null effect given the ratio of the deer that were culled in California this would appear to be correct as 9 dead deer could have easily shown that the Californian deer population did not have F&M.
If the disease naturally dies out, how come the World still has this disease? Note the pattern in the rainy season below. And the mention of floods in the South African Extract.l
http://www.fao.org/News/2001/011207-e.htm
Foot-and-mouth disease -- the Maasai caught between two worlds
But East Africa's cattle-raising Maasai people don't kill their infected cattle. For them, foot-and-mouth disease has almost become a part of everyday life -- it's so common they refer to it using the same word they use for the common cold: oloirobi. It occurs almost every rainy season with minimal loss of life.
Foot and mouth disease: the experience of South Africa
http://www.oie.int/eng/publicat/rt/2103/A_r21334.htm
G.K. Brückner, W. Vosloo, B.J.A. Du Plessis, P.E.L.G. Kloeck, L. Connoway, M.D. Ekron, D.B. Weaver, C.J. Dickason, F.J. Schreuder, T. Marais & M.E. Mogajane
Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 2002, 21 (3), 751-764 http://www.oie.int/eng/publicat/rt/2103/4.2.Bruckner.pdf
Summary
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park (KNP) and surrounding game parks in South Africa. The last outbreak of the disease in domestic stock outside the FMD control zone occurred in 1957. Due to the success in containing the disease, the country was accorded zone freedom from FMD without vaccination by the Office International des Epizooties (OIE: World organisation for animal health) in 1995. This status was lost in September 2000 when the first-ever recorded case of serotype O in South Africa was diagnosed in a piggery in KwaZulu-Natal after the illegal feeding of untreated swill. In November 2000, an outbreak of FMD caused by serotype South African Territories (SAT) 1 was diagnosed in a feedlot within the free zone of Mpumalanga Province. The SAT 1 outbreak was traced to cattle in the FMD control zone south of the KNP after the game-proof fence surrounding the KNP was severely damaged by floods. This enabled buffalo to come into direct contact with cattle outside the KNP. A further outbreak caused by SAT 2 was diagnosed within the FMD control zone in February 2001, also as a result of buffalo having escaped from the KNP. All these outbreaks were successfully contained, with the re-instatement of zone freedom from FMD without vaccination by the OIE in May 2002.
These outbreaks made it necessary to re-examine the methods of control and containment of FMD that have been practised for many years and which are in line with accepted international practices. The authors describe the rationale for the different control strategies that were followed, the need for a multidisciplinary approach to disease control, the interface between control and technological and diagnostic support and the lessons learned. Some suggestions for future control strategies are also offered.
Keywords
African buffalo – Control strategies – Feedlots – Foot and mouth disease – Logistic support – Multidisciplinary approach – Office International des Epizooties – South Africa – Zones.
Take a good look at the South African experience with F&M here we have an area that has long periods without infection, yet there is a known population of wild animals that carry the disease. The mention of floods again rears its ugly head yet they blame a broken fence for cross contamination when there are ample carriers both predatory and passive and no restrictions on vehicles moving in and out of the infected areas. But the virus remains dorment for long periods. So your argument that we don’t have it so we must be clear of it does not fit with the reality of F&M.
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"Testing a small group of deer to see if the whole population of deer may be harbouring this virus is unscientific and destined to produce a convenient null effect given the ratio of the deer that were culled in California this would appear to be correct as 9 dead deer could have easily shown that the Californian deer population did not have F&M.
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Testing only the sick deer is a much better test that you seem to think.
When there's an outbreak it doesn't just affect animal d that have been kept in flooded fields- it spreads out much like fire.
It keeps not happening even though we have bad Summers.
Why not?
You keep not really answering that question.
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I have answered it, it is not the flooded fields but the humidity and dampness that follows the floods as the water returns to the atmosphere.
You fail to understand that if the virus in South Africa can lull for years then re-emerge without an alien introduction other than birds and insects and wild animals, you have to explain how the virus knows it is in Africa, UK,France, or any other country and why it behaves different in the UK than it does in other countries.
The fact of the matter is that it does not behave any different, we also have lulls of often many years.
When I researched this during the 2001 pandemic I learned that there are indeed smaller outbreaks that go unreported over the years.
But lets take a look to see if unusually high humidity plays a roll in perpetuating the disease. Hong Kong is a good start being 2001 and 2002
The Weather of January 2001
January 2001 was warmer and wetter than usual. The mean temperature of 17.3 degrees was 1.5 degrees above normal and the ninth highest for January. The monthly total rainfall of 47.6 millimetres was more than double the normal value of
November01: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200111.htm
December 01: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200112.htm
February 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200202.htm
March 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200203.htm
April 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200204.htm
May 02 : http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200205.htm
June: 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200206.htm
July 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200207.htm
August 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200208.htm
September 02 http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200109.htm
October 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200210.htm
November 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200211.htm
December 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200212.htm
http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/mws200201.htm Weather January 02
Foot-and-mouth disease under control
Monday, January 26, 2004
There is no evidence to suggest that foot-and-mouth disease in Hong Kong is more serious this year than in previous years, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said today (January 26).
Some 1,200 pigs were confirmed to have been infected with foot-and-mouth disease in 2003, compared with some 2,200 and 4,100 for 2002 and 2001 respectively. Most of the pigs were infected in the winter months. In January this year about 900 pigs were reported to have been infected.
"Farmers should report foot-and-mouth disease cases to the AFCD as soon as possible. It is in their best interests to do so as this allows the AFCD to provide farmers with veterinary diagnostic services. It also enables us to monitor the serotype of the virus so that an appropriate vaccine could be chosen if a new serotype is found," AFCD's Assistant Director (Inspection and Quarantine) Mr Lai Ching-wai said.
"The AFCD has started inspecting pig farms again to look for any unreported foot-and-mouth disease cases. An operation has also been mounted by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department to check for any illegal dumping of dead pigs," he said.
Foot-and-mouth disease is a common viral disease occurring in pigs in the region including in Hong Kong. The disease does occur in pigs in Hong Kong during the winter months. Farmers control the disease by vaccination.
Now lets take a look at the weather of 2003 in Hong Kong. The report above states F&M under control Jan 2004. So we should see a significant drop in humidity from September 2003 to January 2004.
Early September follows the high humidity trend which falls to lower levels towards the end of the month. October humidity is much lower November lower still and December lower again.
Jan 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200301.htm
Feb 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200302.htm
Mar 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200303.htm
Apr 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200304.htm
May 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200305.htm
June 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200306.htm
Jul 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200307.htm
Aug 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200308.htm
Sep 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200309.htm
Oct 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200310.htm
Nov 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200311.htm
Dec 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200312.htm
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"you have to explain how the virus knows it is in Africa, UK,France, or any other country and why it behaves different in the UK than it does in other countries."
OK, that looks like an interesting challenge.
A virus cannot really "know" anything, but it does carry information. For example the virus carries information about what strain it is.
In particular, the virus that caused the 2007 outbreak was the same one that had caused the 1967 outbreak- hardly suprising since that's the strain that pirbright dealt with. The report into that outbreak points out that this particular strain is no longer found in the wild. there's a link to the report here.
http://www.hse.gov.uk/news/archive/07aug/footandmouth.htm
and this is what it says "Defra identified the strain of FMDV involved in the outbreak as Type O1 BFS67,
which is the strain recovered from the 1967 FMD epidemic in Great Britain. This strain
is used in FMD reference laboratories and pharmaceutical manufacturing plants and
is not known to be currently in circulation anywhere in the world. Hereafter this will be
referred to as the O1 BFS strain."
OK, so that's one thing this virus can be said to "know" it "knows" that it came from a research facility- not the wild..
The other question is how the virus can know it's in the UK rather than in Africa.
Again, of course, it can't- but it doesn't need to.
All it needs to do is infect the local cattle (and, lets face it, it will do that).
In Africa it will meet cattle that have often been infected before so it will not cause any infection. The animal's immune system will wipe it out.
Sometimes it will meet a young animal that has never been infected before- in this case it will cause disease but, like the different strains of the virus, there are different bloodlines in the cattle. The cattle in Africa are those whose parents and grandparents etc for many generations have withstood the virus.
In the UK it faces a different world. None of the cattle have been infected with FMD before- so they are all fully susceptible. Also, while cattle have been deliberately bred for many characteristics, FMD resistance hasn't been a factor for generations.
You might think that this difference isn't big enough to explain the observed difference between outbreaks in the UK and the endemic disease in Africa.
Have you read what happened when the first Europeans traveled to South America and introduced viruses like measles, flu etc.?
They often wiped out the local population.
http://www.millersville.edu/~columbus/papers/orlow-e.html
There's yet another thing that viruses "know" - that it doesn't help to be too virulent. If a virus causes a massive infection the host dies out before the virus spreads very far. That's not good for the virus. It makes sense for the virus to evolve into a version that causes relatively mild symptoms (or even none at all) in the host.
In the decades since the older outbreaks in the UK the wild virus will have "calmed down". The stocks maintained in labs are under no such evolutionary pressure and will Therefore be more vigorous than the current wild forms.
Since the recent outbreak was an old virus, it's not that odd that it did more damage than the current wild strains.
Incidentally, re. "When I researched this during the 2001 pandemic I learned that there are indeed smaller outbreaks that go unreported over the years."
Not in the UK there aren't.
Thanks for the Hong Kong weather reports, but the fact is that you don't have any evidence to back your conspiracy theory.
and, just to reiterate the point,
"I have answered it, it is not the flooded fields but the humidity and dampness that follows the floods as the water returns to the atmosphere. "
In much the same way that the UK often has wet Summers, it often has high humidity.
The wet (or humid) conditions are common, but outbreaks are not.
You still need to explain the lack of outbreaks in other wet Summers. The difference between "wet" and "humid" isn't that big really.
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http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5guxWtyfYWpqQXW0pO97c-Wi7iiXQ
New outbreak of bluetongue found
1 day ago
A fresh outbreak of bluetongue has been detected in livestock imported to the UK, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.
The disease, which can be fatal to animals such as cows and sheep, was identified in 18 cattle on premises near Bishop Auckland, County Durham.
http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/3664233.Disease_outbreak_blow_to_farmers/
Disease outbreak blow to farmers
9:13am Thursday 11th September 2008
Farming leaders said last night that the latest outbreak, coming after the summer’s poor weather, which has wrecked crops, was further “dreadful news”.
Country Land and Business Association’s (CLA) regional director Dorothy Fairburn said: “This will be a blow to the whole industry.
“I would urge farmers to contact the National Farmers’ Union and the CLA for further information. It won’t have the same sort of serious effects as foot-and-mouth, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time of year for the sales of sheep and store cattle.
“It is absolutely dreadful news.”
Despite the threat from bluetongue – which has ravaged livestock across Europe – only one in five farmers have vaccinated their animals.
The disease is spread by midges that thrive in late summer weather. There are no cases of it being transferred to humans, but the illness can be fatal for cows and sheep.
The outbreak prompted warnings about importing cattle from the Continent where the NFU says the virus is virulent.
More than 30,000 cases were confirmed in France in one week last month.
NFU president Peter Kendall said: “Farmers need to be confident that either the animals have been correctly vaccinated and met all the appropriate conditions of the vaccine or they must be sure that the animals are not carrying the bluetongue virus through thorough testing.
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I'm sorry, but not suprised to hear that.
What has it got to do with the thread?
Bluetongue isn't foot and mouth disease.
FMD is not spread by biting midges which can be carried accross the channel on the wind.
FMD isn't widespread in Europe.
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Included Blue Tongue on the original post to show close relationship with weather and yes I agree that midges are responsible for infecting the herds, but suspect that the weather also plays a part in lowering the animals immune system and body temperature assisting the infection rates.
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Bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.
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Bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.
Bluetongue surviving winter by infecting livestock foetuses
Tuesday, 26 Aug 2008 12:13
Scientists have come up with a number of hypotheses for explaining how the Bluetongue virus survives winter.
When it first reached livestock in northern Europe in 2006 it was thought that the virus would be killed off during the winter and thereby prevent it from spreading.
However, the virus did survive the winter and in fact escalated the following year.
Scientists from the Institute for Animal Health looked into how the virus survived in the open access journal PLoS Biology.
They claim that the survival may be due to a number of different reasons. In mild winters, such as that of 2006/07 for example, the infected midges may have survived in livestock barns before becoming active again in spring.
Another possibility is that Bluetongue is in fact spread by some susceptible species of long-lived ticks and by the simple mechanical transmission by Melopagus ovinus, a wingless parasite that lives in sheep.
Evidence from Australia also points to the fact that the Bluetongue virus can survive inside midges and cattle for three to four months, enough time to survive the majority of winter.
In northern Europe, it seems that the virus can survive by transplacental infections – spreading from an infected pregnant animal to its foetus. This is a significant phenomenon in cattle due to its nine month gestation period.
Dr Mellor, of the Institute for Animal Health, concludes: "Experiments have revealed a toolbox of possible mechanisms, with the potential to interact with and complement one another..
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/science/
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Many bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.
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Bluetongue has been re occuring recently and it's a few months before real winter sets in.
If it's a cold winter then these viruses/bugs might get killed off.
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Good point, and that's what's usually observed. However Andrew seems to think that the effect of cold wet weather on the animals' immune system and body temperature will dominate.
Incidentally, does anyone have any data for the seasonal variation of body temperature among farm animals?
I know that humans maintain essentially the same temperature all year (with some daily variation) and I wonder if sheep and cattle do the same.
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Ever heard of the term fever BC? Are you aware that a period of horizontal bed rest causes the body temperature to drop by two degrees in healthy people? Have you read my post stating that this 2 degree temperature drop does not appear to happen on an inclined bed? Maybe the same avoidance of a 2 degree drop in body temperature is achieved when grazing animals lay down on a hill side all facing uphill? Maybe putting these animals on level ground in the bottom of a river valley area is not the wisest move for a farmer? Maybe preventing these animals from being moved to higher ground during an outbreak will compound the disease and turn it into a pandemic?
Remember cold air holds less water than warm air, so we don’t rely on the cold to reduce the animals resistance to infection. In fact higher temperatures and copious amounts of humidity should do just fine.
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"Ever heard of the term fever BC? "
Yes, its what you get after getting an infection. Becuse it's after the inecton srikes, it's a complete red herring.
"Are you aware that a period of horizontal bed rest causes the body temperature to drop by two degrees in healthy people?"
Yes, that's why I mentioned the daily variation. Most people lie down to sleep.
"Have you read my post stating that this 2 degree temperature drop does not appear to happen on an inclined bed?"
Interesting data. Do you have any indications that it might apply to non human species?
"Maybe the same avoidance of a 2 degree drop in body temperature is achieved when grazing animals lay down on a hill side all facing uphill? "
Maybe, do you have any data?
Here is story about the real data
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/2623809/Cows-point-north-thanks-to-in-built-compasses.html
Cows align temselves facing North, not uphill.
"Maybe putting these animals on level ground in the bottom of a river valley area is not the wisest move for a farmer? Maybe preventing these animals from being moved to higher ground during an outbreak will compound the disease and turn it into a pandemic?"
Maybe I will win the lottery, but until we know more about it this is empty speculation.
"Remember cold air holds less water than warm air, so we don’t rely on the cold to reduce the animals resistance to infection. In fact higher temperatures and copious amounts of humidity should do just fine."
Hot air certainly holds more water. Cows are generally slightly warmer than the air round them.
The air they breathe out is near saturated with water at roughly 101F so the net effect of wet air is to reduce the water loss from the cow's lungs.
You seem not to have noticed which way the water is going.
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I believe i read in an article a few months ago (Mind you I'm only pretty sure of this, it could be complete BS, if it is, please tell me) that FMD was also known as a form of cutaneous anthrax. Now anthrax spores are grown inside the infected animal and spread when infected blood comes in contact with a laceration in an uninfected animal, or if it is ingested or inhaled. Therefore if that strain of anthrax is actually FMD, then flooding or heavy rains could have carried the spores (which have been known to infect animals for up to 70 years after they are released) into the drinking water of the livestock, and after ingesting the spores the livestock were infected starting the process over again
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Anthrax is caused by a bacterium, FMD by a virus. They are completely unrelated.
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http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7008901.stm
Government vets have confirmed bluetongue disease is circulating in the UK and is now classed as an outbreak.
What is bluetongue disease?
It is a non-contagious virus spread by a species of midge and is most commonly seen in the late summer and autumn.
All ruminants, such as cattle, goats, deer and sheep, are susceptible, although symptoms are generally most severe in sheep.
However, in certain weather, midges can be carried much further, especially over water masses - up to 200km (124 miles).
Such distances vary according to local environmental, topographical and meteorological conditions, Defra says.
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WTF does this have to do with Foot and Mouth?
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'Hunt and kill illegal Chinese deer', says GormleyBy Michael Lavery
Monday September 29 2008
TINY, four-footed Chinese "invaders" are to be shot on sight in Irish forests.
The 19-inch-high Muntjac deer have been brought into the country and released illegally into the wild, Department of the Environment officials believe.
The non-native species, also known as "barking" deer, pose a threat to the Irish deer populations of Sika, Red and Fallow.
The Department's experts say the non-native populations are susceptible to, or may act as a reservoir for, bovine TB, foot and mouth disease, Lyme's disease and bluetongue virus.
They also have a reputation for damaging crops.
Sightings
The Muntjac have been spotted in Co Wicklow in three separate areas 15km apart and some have already been shot by licenced hunters.
Now Environment Minister John Gormley has declared "open season" on the Muntjac for the next 12 months under the Wildlife Act. Native deer species are protected and can only be hunted during very specific parts of the year. But licenced deer hunters will be able to hunt Muntjac throughout the State subject to the permission of the landowner.
"The introduction of the Muntjac deer in Britain has resulted in significant damage to commercial woodland, farm crops and gardens over the years," Mr Gormley said.
"I am of the view that this authorisation ensure that the species does not gain a foothold in the country.
"My Department are examining further measures with a view to eradicating this alien species before it becomes established."
The Muntjac's small size and its liking for woodland habitats together with its extended breeding season, allows it to build up numbers and reach high densities quickly.
The Department warned it is a criminal offence to introduce and release Muntjac deer and Mr Gormley said they would vigorously pursue "any individual introducing invasive species into the State."
- Michael Lavery
http://www.herald.ie/national-news/hunt-and-kill-illegal-chinese-deer-says-gormley-1485188.html
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So?
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Point is, we have a large number of wild animal populations in this country that are quite capable of maintaining virus strains indefinitely. Realising this has caused the proposed cull on deer in Ireland. We also have muntac deer, I know because I have seen one while driving slowly past it grazing on a verge. Also seen wallaby in large numbers around Bewdley in the Midlands. We also have wild boar, along with the more familiar cohabitants like badger fox and rabbit.
The point is that this possible viral reservoir is now being considered to act as a possible reservoir for foot and mouth disease and other diseases. These animals were in the countryside during the last two major outbreaks, so it is entirely possible that the viral reservoir is already out there among the native wildlife and that environmental factors are holding it at bay.
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Point is that "non-native populations are susceptible to, or may act as a reservoir for, bovine TB..." just tells you that deer can get foot an mouth. They may also act as a reservoir for TB or whatever.
The words "may" and "or" in there strips the sentence of any real meaning. Clearly a deer that doesn't have the virus cant act as a reservoir for it.
This sentence "The point is that this possible viral reservoir is now being considered to act as a possible reservoir for foot and mouth disease and other diseases." is overstating the case. The quote might mean that these animals act as a reservoir for TB and are susceptible to F+M.
Anyway, we know there's no reservoir of F+M in the UK because we don't get outbreaks except when there has been a breach of quarantine.
There may a reason to cull these deer (and the wallabys etc) but F+M isn't it.
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Final foot-and-mouth restrictions lifted
By Stuart Richards
4/10/2008
THE spectre of foot-and-mouth has finally been removed from Surrey's countryside, with the lifting of the final disease restrictions around Egham and the Old Windsor area.
The opening up of the last remaining restricted land in the county comes 14 months after the first outbreak last summer, although the county council said the financial impact of foot-and-mouth would continue to be felt for some time.
Public rights of way around Milton Park Farm, Egham Whitehall Farm, Egham Manor Farm, Laleham Ankerwyke and Old Windsor were reopened on Friday.
Four cases of foot-and-mouth were confirmed around the Egham area last September, following on from earlier outbreaks in Normandy and Elstead, near Guildford.
Restrictions at Westwood Lane, Hook Farm and Willey Green Farm, in Normandy, were lifted in early August this year.
Surrey County Council's trading standards manager, Peter Denard, said: "It is fantastic news that the final restrictions that were the legacy of last year's outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease have now been lifted, but it is important that we do not forget the disastrous impact this outbreak had on the rural economy and the huge effect it had on the local and national economy.
"To be able to say to the public that the countryside is open to all again is very welcome news, especially as it has taken more than a year to get to this point.
"However, the farming community and the local authority will have to live with the financial implications of the outbreak even longer, which has left us frustrated and disappointed."
Mr Denard said the county council and its local partners had not been reimbursed by the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs for their work in containing the initial outbreak, or for the monitoring of the closed rights of way, while the government had also cut funding for animal welfare and health.
"These financial issues cause us concern for the future because we have been telling the government that measures need to be put in place to reduce the impact of an animal disease outbreak," he added.
Farmer Robert Lawrence, who lost 350 cattle after discovering foot-and-mouth in some of his animals at Milton Park Farm, in Egham, told getsurrey.co.uk at the end of August this year: "You wouldn’t want to see the like of it again, it was devastating.
“I couldn’t bear to see my cattle suffering, but the emptiness of the fields afterwards was even more haunting.
“If it happened again I don’t think we’d come back from it.”
http://www.getsurrey.co.uk/news/s/2036666_final_footandmouth_restrictions_lifted
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So, even the slugish and paranoid world of local government realise that there is no FMD in (their bit of) the UK.
Do you?
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Whether there is foot and mouth disease here already or not is irrelevant. We have plenty of people flying from areas all around the world that do have foot and mouth disease in domesticated and wild animals, and let’s face it, the arrival of the bluetongue virus proves that sooner or later boundaries will be surmountable. And let’s not forget the migratory birds and insects are more than capable of bringing it in from overseas.
But my point is that we remain free from F&M while the animals are capable of maintaining their defence against it. The problem arises when environmental factors like keeping animals in valleys during horrendous weather with widespread flooding takes it toll and reduces the body temperature and circulation to the point where the virus finds it easy to invade the cells. We must not forget that a good environment has the opposite effect and the infected animals quickly recover.
The slaughter policy during the last major outbreaks is quite bizarre when you think about it for a while. The wholesale slaughter of the farm animals was thought to have eradicated the disease, when the wild dear, boar, wallaby etc were not subjected to the same pointless onslaught, yet somehow survived the disease without the help of a bolt from a gun and a blazing inferno, or indeed a vaccination programme.
So why did these animals present little infection rates? Was it because they were free to move to higher dryer ground? A practice in farming for thousands of years and now the lessons have been forgotten because Joe Bloggs owns the Highland and Dave Bloggs owns the lowland so movement of farm animals is not going to happen is it?
Down comes the rain, fields become swamps, animals get sick and opportunistic pathogens take hold of the stock.
Not rocket science just common sense farming practices and we can avoid the next F&M disaster.
Move the animals to high ground! In case anyone reading this may have missed the last line here it is again. Move the animals to high ground when the weather causes widespread flooding! And in Winter grow crops rather than livestock in the lower river valley areas!
I have spoken with farmers who had no problem with infections during any of the last outbreaks and all of them had their animals on HIGH GROUND!
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"Whether there is foot and mouth disease here already or not is irrelevant. "
You didn't say that when you were trying to say it was endemic in the UK, in fact there was quite a long debate about the exact meaning of the word "endemic".
"But my point is that we remain free from F&M while the animals are capable of maintaining their defence against it."
Odd then that every outbreak has been traced back to a breach of quarantine.
You still haven't answered the question put to you earlier. This has been one of the wettest Summers on record so why no FMD?
Until you can answer that your conjecture that wet weather begets FMD ourtbreaks doesn't tally with reallity.
While it's often true that wild animals can move freely that is grounds to supose that they are not infected with FMD. If thery were then the disease would keep popping up all over the place.
You keep preaching that the humidity makes a difference (in spite of being told that cattle breathe more water out than in- on cold days you can see their breath "steam" just like people's) and you kept saying that the vius is here.
If those were both true then after a wet Summer and during this wet Autumn there would be an outbreak.
Thankfully there isn't one.
Incidentally, this "A practice in farming for thousands of years and now the lessons have been forgotten because Joe Bloggs owns the Highland and Dave Bloggs owns the lowland so movement of farm animals is not going to happen is it?" is dross too. For thousands of years farmers have let their cattle drink from streams. That means the cattle always have access to wet marshy low ground.
I have yet to see a farm that neatly follows the contour map so all the fields are either "on the high ground" or "on the low ground". Have you? What I do remember is that the peak distrrict ran into a problem with the tourist trade during the latest FMD outbreak. The peak district is the high ground- the clue is in the name.
As for the demand to move the animals to the high ground it seems odd to me.
If anyone else is still reading this thread (I doubt there are many) they might want to picture a world in which Andrew is "minister of health" and where a 'flu pandemic is about to reach the UK.
His proposed solution is to crowd all the people onto the hilltops.
Obviously, it will be more difficult to feed and water them (and look after waste disposal). The crowding will make transmission of the diesase easier and the lack of food and water will reduce people's immunity.
Even more importantly, one of the things about the high ground is that it's cold. People are warm blooded; one of their best inbuilt mechanisms for fighting disease is fever- essentially, you "cook" the bugs.
Of course it's difficult enough to keep warm on a hillside without proper food, water or shelter, and it's even more difficult to maintain a fever.
Another thing that makes life that bit more difficult for the immune system is dealing with several infections at once. It's pretty good at this, but it certainly doesn't help matter. One way to ensure that it gets lots of infections to deal with is to crowd lots of people together.
Now, I'm not saying that cattle are the same as people or even that 'flu is the same as FMD, but does anyone see why I don't support Andrew's idea?
Finally Andrew, do you remember me saying (12/8) "Also, please dont waste time saying things like "you can't quarantine a virus.", at least not while you live in a country that has been kept free of rabies for decades. Also, don't say "The virus is here all the time." unless you have real evidence to back it up."?
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Nice attempt, but fails miserably to address the infection risk from birds, insects and imported animals! Good how you avoid the meat and go for the two veg?
Below is one example of avian importation of Lyme Disease.
Appl Environ Microbiol. 1989 August; 55(8): 1921-1924
Lyme disease and migrating birds in the Saint Croix River Valley.
A R Weisbrod and R C Johnson
St. Croix National Riverway, Spring Creek Field Laboratory, Minnesota 55047.
ABSTRACT
During a study of migrating land birds in 1987, we examined over 9,200 individual birds representing 99 species from the Saint Croix River Valley, a Lyme disease-endemic area of east central Minnesota and northwestern Wisconsin. We found that 250 deer tick (Ixodes dammini) larvae and nymphs infested 58 birds from 15 migrant species; 56 ticks (22.4%) were positive for the Lyme disease spirochete Borrelia burgdorferi. Five ground-foraging migrant bird species favoring mesic habitats, veery (Catharus fuscescens), ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapillus), northern waterthrush (S. novaboracensis), common yellowthroat (Geothlypis trichas), and swamp sparrow (Melospiza georgiana), accounted for nearly three-quarters of parasitized individuals. Nearly half of the spirochete-positive ticks were removed from migrating birds taken in a riparian floodplain forest. Recaptured migrants with infected ticks indicate that they transmit B. burgdorferi to hexapod larvae. We suggest that birds may be both an important local reservoir in the upper Mississippi Valley and long-distance dispersal agents for B. burgdorferi-infected ticks to other regions of the continent.
Appl Environ Microbiol. 1989 August; 55(8): 1921-1924
"Whether there is foot and mouth disease here already or not is irrelevant. "
You didn't say that when you were trying to say it was endemic in the UK, in fact there was quite a long debate about the exact meaning of the word "endemic".
”Odd then that every outbreak has been traced back to a breach of quarantine.”
Yes it is conveniently odd isn’t it?
”Until you can answer that your conjecture that wet weather begets FMD ourtbreaks doesn't tally with reallity.”
Yes it does tally with reality. Reality is that all of the major outbreaks in the UK have been assisted by unusually prolonged wet weather. It may also be worth considering that bluetongue could further weaken animal resistance when the next outbreak arrives, and arrive it undoubtedly will!
Asking why haven’t we got an outbreak right now is rather odd coming from a chemist. Perhaps there is a correlation with the seasonal changes? You know being a chemist, you must have seen more snotty noses in the winter? Hay fever when pollen is higher? Coughs and colds when humidity is higher?
”While it's often true that wild animals can move freely that is grounds to supose that they are not infected with FMD. If thery were then the disease would keep popping up all over the place.”
My point exactly. The fact that F&M does not keep popping up in the wild animal population means they are somehow avoiding it and beating the infection without the need for either vaccination or being slaughtered in the fields.
”You keep preaching that the humidity makes a difference (in spite of being told that cattle breathe more water out than in- on cold days you can see their breath "steam" just like people's) and you kept saying that the vius is here.”
Not preaching. This is based on many years of researching into humidity and its affect on increased human health problems, including cot deaths and sudden adult deaths. When humidity is very high the fluid to gas exchange in cattle and other animals is compromised as they breathe in wetter air. If you fail to see this then there is no point continuing.
For example. A child with croup in a padded cot that was in distress next to my son’s bed while in hospital was administered what could only be described as a massive amount of visible moist air flooding the cot. Each time they did this the child fell asleep within a few minutes. Now this could have been because it eased his airways or it could have induced lethargy and caused the child to fall asleep.
I have worked in a river valley area doing heavy manual work and felt the life drain from my body, gasping for air, sweating profusely and ironically so were the other three workmates I was with at the time. We were doing a house removal for some people who were moving out of Buckfastleigh Valley due to health concerns. We drank lots of fluids and rested lots of times and became thoroughly lethargic due to the horrendous humidity. The people moving out confirmed that when they had moved into the valley they were in good health 2 years previous, but had, like ourselves found life in the valley was not all it was cracked up to be. Indeed the locals had given days like this a name, calling it Buckfastitis. On days like this, they told us, there is a mass exodus out of the valley when people move to less oppressive air! This should speak volumes for this discussion but doubt it will.
On finishing the removal which took forever and left us totally drained and ready for a sleep we drove a short distance to “you’ve guessed it” a higher, more elevated terrain where we began to unload. Miraculously we all regained our full potential and all of our aches and lethargy had vanished. Now this could have been due to the 30 minutes rest we had on the journey to the new home or it could have been to the reduction in humidity. I will let you ponder on it.
“Thankfully there isn't one.”
For once we agree on something.
The name Peak District should also indicate troughs, you know peaks and troughs, valleys and hill sides, high ground and low ground.
Again you have conveniently ignored my mentioning of farmers on high ground that did not get F&M problems and some of these were in Bristol.
As for the demand to move the animals to the high ground it seems odd to me.
Picture moving sick animals to the hills to recover? Why BC don’t you realise that this was done with respiratory conditions for those that could afford it? People did go to the mountains to aid recovery!
In fact people with multiple sclerosis at elevations of 3,000 feet somehow become elated, full of energy and are able to rise from a wheelchair and abandon walking sticks, but then when they go back to sea level they become lethargic and unable to walk again. Several published personal accounts of this were found and included in my theory on MS.
As for feeding and watering animals on the high ground, we now have a thing called an automated drinking trough and fortunately vehicles are able to move hay to them, lets face it vehicles were able to move soldiers to the fields to slaughter the animals so a few bales of hay should not prove more difficult.
immunity.
Even more importantly, one of the things about the high ground is that it's cold. People are warm blooded; one of their best inbuilt mechanisms for fighting disease is fever- essentially, you "cook" the bugs.
Of course it's difficult enough to keep warm on a hillside without proper food, water or shelter, and it's even more difficult to maintain a fever.
Another thing that makes life that bit more difficult for the immune system is dealing with several infections at once. It's pretty good at this, but it certainly doesn't help matter. One way to ensure that it gets lots of infections to deal with is to crowd lots of people together.
Animals on high ground have the benefit of being able to rest facing uphill when they lay down. Your argument that this may be because they are pointing North is not working as there would be more chance of them facing downhill and on the horizontal when this points North. They always face uphill! Yes all of them laying down face uphill. Why do you think this is the case? Could it be predation worries? If it were predation they would be far more observant looking down the hills for an attacker?
They face uphill because being on an incline increases body temperature and increases circulation, particularly noticeable for people who have cold hands and cold feet in bed.
As you quite rightly mention, cooking the virus is a great defence, so maintaining your body temperature is of paramount importance for protecting your cells from invaders.
Sleeping in a valley with severe damp conditions, flat ground and water logged soils is hardly the Ritz is it? Farm animal waste squelching between their hooves is hardly a sterile environment is it?
You mentioned moving a group of people to the high ground as a mechanism for compounding the disease.
Let’s strip the same people naked and move them into a river valley and have them standing for months on end in their own urine and crap and see how many survive? The pig is thought to be very close to our own physiology, so close that body parts are used for transplants. So should we expect pigs to fair any better than our naked peoples experiment in the valley? Yet this is exactly what happens every year.
”Now, I'm not saying that cattle are the same as people or even that 'flu is the same as FMD, but does anyone see why I don't support Andrew's idea?”
I would be very interested to hear your views too on.
”Finally Andrew, do you remember me saying (12/8) "Also, please dont waste time saying things like "you can't quarantine a virus.", at least not while you live in a country that has been kept free of rabies for decades. Also, don't say "The virus is here all the time." unless you have real evidence to back it up."?”
You can’t quarantine a virus! I stand by this! You may be able to slaughter the animals that have it but you can’t prevent it from moving around because of birds, deer, boar, rabbits, mice, rats, badgers, insects, people, dogs, cats, horses, vehicles, aircraft, military, holidays, tractors, earth movers, landfill,
Saying you can quarantine a virus is stupid!
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"Nice attempt, but fails miserably to address the infection risk from birds, insects and imported animals! Good how you avoid the meat and go for the two veg"
So, you missed the point about the lack of rabies in this country; quarantine works- even though we can't quarantine birds etc. because you need the right vector for a given disease and FMD doesn't have a wild vector that can fly (unless you count man).
It would also make life simpler if, in this thread about FMD, you stopped introducing red herrings like Lymes disease- it's a fascinating subject but not relevant.
"Asking why haven’t we got an outbreak right now is rather odd coming from a chemist. Perhaps there is a correlation with the seasonal changes? You know being a chemist, you must have seen more snotty noses in the winter? Hay fever when pollen is higher? Coughs and colds when humidity is higher?"
I'm not sure wtf chemistry has to do with it- pharmacy perhaps, medicine certainly, but not chemistry.
Yes diseases are often seasonal. As I said, cold weather (as found on high ground) does upset the immune response of mammals. Of course the absolute humidity is generally higher in Summer and the relative humidity is often near 100% in the UK whether it's Summer or Winter.
Perhaps I should repeat that bit
the absolute humidity is generally higher in Summer
in case you missed it.
However you only need immunity to FMD if the virus is about.
Here in the UK, except when quarantine fails, the virus isn't about so there are no cases.
"lets face it vehicles were able to move soldiers to the fields to slaughter the animals so a few bales of hay should not prove more difficult."
You only need to do one of those once, and soldiers walk better than any bales of hay I have ever seen.
(don't get me wrong, I don't think the slaughter policy was the best available).
"Animals on high ground have the benefit of being able to rest facing uphill when they lay down. Your argument that this may be because they are pointing North is not working as there would be more chance of them facing downhill and on the horizontal when this points North. They always face uphill! Yes all of them laying down face uphill. Why do you think this is the case? Could it be predation worries? If it were predation they would be far more observant looking down the hills for an attacker?"
You really missed the point here.
All the cows faced North (give or take a few degrees) Unless they all happen to be in fields with a south facing aspect (which simply isn't possible) they were observed not to be facing uphil.
Do you understand that this means they don't face uphil, they face North?
Since they don't face uphil, that means you can't use their facing uphil as evidence.
Anyway, the top of a hill (or the bottom for that matter ) isn't a good place to try and lie down on a slope. The sides of the hill are better because they do slope.
The slope is zero at the top and bottom.
While we are on the hilltops,
The hospitals people with lung complaints were sent to, often on top of hills, were called isolation hospitals. Can you see how that might be different from crowding people together?
Also, while the city air was full of polution, it made a lot of sense to give people who's lungs were struggling an opportunity to get up into the clean air of the hills. Clearly, it's easy enough to provide food and water to a few hospital patients. It would be more of a problem if you put the whole population up there.
You say "My point exactly. The fact that F&M does not keep popping up in the wild animal population means they are somehow avoiding it and beating the infection without the need for either vaccination or being slaughtered in the fields."
You can't have it both ways.
If birds and wild animals spread FMD to cattle that can't move away from wet valleys because they are fenced in then they would also spread it from the wild animals that (according to you) have the disease and recover (incidentally, there's nothing magic about recovery, FMD isn't usually fatal).
There are few outbreaks of a disaes that's known to be very infectious so there cannot be a source of infection and a vector. Since FMD doesn't really need a vector there cannot be any reservoir of infection or we would have cases. These cses would be spotted (not lesat because they would rip through the national herd).
Stop ignoring the fact that there's no rabies in this country. It proves that you can keep a virus out by quarantine. It has essentially worked for over a hundred years- why don't you accept this?
Why do you say that the observed fact, shown to be true for a hundred years, is stupid?
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Sunday, 24 November, 2002, 21:59 GMT
Man dies from rabies after bat bite
David McRae worked with bats as a conservationist
A man has died after contracting Britain's first case of rabies for 100 years, hospital bosses have confirmed.
David McRae, a 56-year-old conservationist from Guthrie, Angus, Scotland, failed to recover from European Bat Lyssavirus (EBL), a type of rabies found in several northern European countries.
Mr McRae, who was licensed to handle bats, was bitten by one of the creatures on at least one occasion.
Mr McRae died in Ninewells Hospital
His licence was issued by wildlife agency Scottish Natural Heritage (SNH), for whom he had carried out research.
A SNH spokesman said Mr McRae's death was a "bleak day" for everyone involved in conservation in Scotland.
He added: "Everyone at Scottish Natural Heritage is completely devastated by this terrible news."
The Oldham-born wildlife artist moved to Angus three years ago and has spent much of his time painting and working with bats.
Doctors announced on Tuesday that Mr McRae was being treated in an isolation unit at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee.
He was bitten by a species known as Daubenton's Bat some weeks ago.
There is no cure for the disease.
Close contact
Tayside NHS Trust has confirmed clinical staff closely involved in treatment of the patient will be offered advice and vaccination where appropriate.
Rabies is a serious infection of the nervous system that is caused by a virus which is usually transmitted by a bite from an infected animal.
Mr McRae had prolonged close contact with bats over many years and had been bitten on at least one occasion.
He had also carried out work for SNH under contract.
In Europe, where the EBL strain is common, there have only been three cases of humans catching rabies since 1977.
This is the first case of indigenous rabies in Britain since 1902.
NHS Tayside director of public health, Drew Walker, said his deepest sympathies were with Mr McRae's family.
He repeated advice that only members of the general public who handle bats or who have been bitten or scratched by them are at risk of infection.
A helpline has also been set up to offer reassurance and advice.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/2509375.stm
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OK A man dies in 2002 and the last one died in 1902.
I think you can legitimately say that quarantine kept the problem at bay for a century.
EBL isn't classical rabies anyway.
"Mr McRae had prolonged close contact with bats over many years and had been bitten on at least one occasion. "
So most of the bats he dealt with didn't have this virus, or he would have become infected on previous occasions.
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You miss an important point in the line above.
"In Europe, where the EBL strain is common, there have only been three cases of humans catching rabies since 1977."
The whole of Europe has only reported 3 cases of humans catching Rabies. Britain is minuscule by comparison to the whole of Europe, certainly in human population and, bat population, yet we have 1 reported death from rabies in 2002 from contact with indigenous bats. The ratio is certainly indicative that we do have this virus well established among the bat population. How can we be sure that foxes has not been infected? The fox population now only has vehicles as a means of keeping the numbers down.
I agree that the other bats that did bite David McRae could not have had the disease.
Rabies is often terminal among human and animal populations, so there is a natural suppressing factor for the virus in that any animal or human coming into contact will probably die unless early treatment is available. Not a luxury the bat population is afforded.
It is also safe to say that this bat that had rabies was infected by another animal and therefore indicates we do have rabies in the UK, despite our strict quarantine laws.
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Not as important as the point you have missed.
EBL isn't rabies.
We may have EBL circulating the the UK but we don't have rabies.
This is because it has been kept out by quarantine.
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Splitting hairs?
The death from rabies of a bat conservationist in Dundee in November 2002 was well publicised in the media. The case was noteworthy not only because it was the first fatal infection acquired in the UK since 1902. The causative virus was the European bat lyssavirus type 2 (EBL 2), a strain closely related to but distinct from the classical rabies virus (1). As the name of the virus implies, the natural reservoir of EBL 2 is in bats and not the terrestrial mammals which typically harbour classical rabies virus. http://smj.org.uk/1103/rabies.htm
EBL isn't rabies.
We may have EBL circulating the the UK but we don't have rabies.
This is because it has been kept out by quarantine.
Closely related to, is good enough for this arguments sake. Let us not forget we were arguing about whether a virus could be quarantined or not.
http://www.csiro.au/science/ps1pq.html
http://smj.org.uk/1103/rabies.htm
An argument like this is a bit like saying a new strain of foot and mouth disease is not really foot and mouth disease.
It is enough that this rabies strain is mostly fatal, affects the body the same as rabies, crosses from bat to humans and therefore animals too. But most of all is here in Great Britain. So much for our effective quarantine laws.
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The media is quite happy to use the words bacteria and virus interchangably.
Just because they call EBR "rabies" doesn't mean it is.
As far as I'm aware there is legislation in this country aimed at rabies, but not at EBR so there's no great suprise that we have one, but not the other.
As for your asstertion that "An argument like this is a bit like saying a new strain of foot and mouth disease is not really foot and mouth disease.".
No, it's more like trying to confuse bluetonge with FMD. - that's what you did before and now (albeit with rather more similar organisms) you are trying to do it again.
Quarantine for rabies has worked very well- of course it hasn't kept out other viruses (like ebl) because it was never designed to.
You keep trying to say that you can't quarantine a virus- but the evidnce shows perfectly well that we can for rabies (if not itys cousin) and we usually can for FMD.
Also you still have yet to explain why, if FMD is free in the UK, there hasn't been an outbreak (and indeed why there are not always outbreaks).
Fundamentally, reallity doesen't support your conjecture and I don't see why you keep trying to shore it up with silly ideas like "quarantine doesn't work".
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I have never confused Bluetongue with foot and mouth disease! Show me where I have please.
My argument is how weather changes affect our and animal health and well being, describing a mechanism where high humidity causes circulation slow down, eventually lowering body temperature to allow pathogens to invade.
Far from being wrong about this, many F&M events from all over the world appear to follow a location pattern that is connected with prolonged wet weather, often widespread flooding and animals in valley areas. You some how refute what centuries of disease has already confirmed.
The sweating sickness for example that ravaged many countries, killing many millions of people "was swept away with a tempest, and with it went the unusually foul air that had plagued most of Europe" History BC. Note it did not state that the air was dry and the sun was shining.
Then there was the wonderful documentary on TV about a family of robins living in a valley. Each year the birds would develop terrible disease and die off completely. When the weather in the valley or should I say the air in the valley became less damp /humid, another population of robins would move in and thrive to eventually be wiped out by disease. Natures own way of sending down the canaries to test the air.
I don't have to explain why there is no F&M about right now. All I have to do is wait for then next outbreak and see if the sun was shining and the cows are wearing sunglasses.
Nowt wrong with conjecture by the way, its a nice word especially when it rings true in the end.
I will grant you that the media often gets things wrong, but it often reports accurate facts too and has done with regards to the outbreaks of foot and mouth disease.
This humidity / damp connection also relates to cot deaths, but then you have heard this before from me.
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=1084.0
http://www.hpa.org.uk/CDR/archives/2002/cdr4702.pdf
Possible rabies-like infection in Scotland
A man has been admitted to a hospital in Scotland with an acute neurological illness that is being
investigated as a suspected case of rabies (1). The possible diagnosis of a rabies-like illness is being
considered because of some aspects of the clinical presentation and because the man is a bat handler who
has been bitten by a bat in Scotland on at least one occasion within the possible incubation period for
rabies. There is no documented evidence that the patient has ever received rabies immunisation or has
travelled abroad since 1996. Although the clinical features of the man’s illness are compatible with some
aspects of rabies, none of the laboratory investigations yet indicate that a rabies-like virus is responsible.
Testing for rabies and rabies-like virus is not, however, straightforward and more tests are being
undertaken. The case has raised awareness of the possibility of rabies-like virus infection of bats in the
United Kingdom (UK) (2).
European bat lyssavirus
The rabies-like viruses carried by insectivorous bats in Europe are referred to as European bat
lyssaviruses (EBLs). These are from the same family of viruses that cause rabies in terrestrial mammals,
and in bats in the Americas, but differ in genotype and serotype. They are EBL 1 and 2, and are of rabies
virus genotype 5 and 6 respectively.
And here is the main reason for insisting that EBL is not really rabies but rabies like from the same family of rabies virus. Not quite like the difference between foot and mouth and bluetongue is it?
The risk of EBL infection being passed to
domestic pets such as dogs and cats, and to wild terrestrial mammals in the UK is very low, and the
rabies-free status of the UK has been unaffected by the previous isolation of EBL in two bats in the UK
Why do you think these guidelines have been issued to people working with bats if this rabies like virus is as unrelated as you claim it to be?
The Department of Health advice is that all
bat handlers whether licensed or not should have pre-exposure immunization against rabies (13).
Vaccine is issued free of charge for bat handlers in England and Wales by the Public Health Laboratory
Service. This is an amendment to previous advice, which limited free provision of vaccine to licensed
bat handlers (14). Bat handlers should have booster rabies vaccination every three to five years.
http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAwebFile/HPAweb_C/1194947412281
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"I have never confused Bluetongue with foot and mouth disease! Show me where I have please."
Mentioning bluetongue at all in this thread, which is about FMD, means you can't or won't see that they are different.
Well, we are now well into a wet Autumn following a wet Summer and there's no FMD.
I don't dispute that bad weather makes a difference to the spread of infecytions in cattle or people.
I just say that the real reason we don't have a FMD outbreak at the moment is that we don't have the virus and the reason for that is quarantine.
We also don't have rabies, and again the reason is quarantine.
If you actually have evidence for the presence of FMD in the uk (outide of laboratories) please present it.
If you have evidence for rabires (not it's cousin or whatever) in the UK then tell us about it.
Otherwise stop pretending that the viruses are present in the UK.
Since all the evidence shows that we don't have the FMD virus there's no way that bad weather could triger an outbreak.
Incidentally, since bats are known to transmit the rabies virus when it's about and bat handlers are often bitten it makes perfect sense for them to be vaccinated agains rabies - this doesn't have anything to do with EBL.
Some of the people who might be exposed to biological weapons are vaccinated against anthrax- that doesn't mean it's common in the UK- it just means that vaccinating them is cheap and easy so it makes sense to do it "in case it is useful in the future" rather than "because they need it now".
If rabies got to the UK the bat handlers might well be among the most "at risk" group so vaccinating them is perfectly reasonable.
The man who died was a licensed bat handler- presumably he followed the rules and was vaccinated against rabies. He died of EBL; if EBL and rabies were the same thing- or even as close as you would like us to think, he would have been immune and so he wouldn't have died.
Your evidence has just proved my point.
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We used to have a lot more cot deaths or Sudden Infant Death Syndrome in the UK prior to the back to sleep campaign by the Foundation for Sudden Infant Death Syndrome. Then the way cot deaths were identified and classified was altered and low and behold SIDS dropped off with everyone hailing the back to sleep campaign as a victory. What if we were to go back to using the same classifications as we did prior to Back to sleep?
Reclassification of rabies to a new identifiable strain that kills people in the same way as the "common rabies" virus does, is like closing the door after the horse has bolted. It's all in the way we name a virus that changes the Rabies Free Status of a country.
I bet the man that died in Scotland and his family were really pleased to find it was not the common rabies strain that killed him but a very very close Rabid cousin.
Virus continually evolves as you well know. The next evolution of the Rabies virus might present some serious implications here in the UK. We will probably call this a close relative of the original virus too but that will not alter the efficacy of the virus.
The weather does appear to have evened itself out since the wet months in the summer. But we have seen a huge increase in the blue tongue virus, and this undeniably is linked to the wet weather. It is a vector virus, transmitted by biting insects that live in close proximity to shallow water and therefore relates to weather and therefore was worth bringing into this thread about how weather affects animals from the onset. As for a wet Autumn, the leaves are just turning here in Devon, the sun is out and it feels like summer has finally arrived.
No one wants an outbreak of F&M or blue tongue or any other virus just to prove this correct. Just trying to let farmers see that there is a correlation going on here that needs to be taken into account and that moving animals to higher ground will substantially improve the outcome next time there is an outbreak. Lets face it, the way Britain has handled the past outbreaks has been nothing short of a monumental catastrophe
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http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/2008/10/08/hand-foot-and-mouth-cases-hit-south-wales-91466-21988053/
Hand foot and mouth cases hit South Wales
Oct 8 2008 by Madeleine Brindley, Western Mail
A virus infection known as hand foot and mouth is affecting children across South Wales.
There have been at least 14 cases of the disease in children living in Cardiff, Rhondda Cynon Taf and the Vale of Glamorgan since the end of August.
The condition is not related to the devastating foot-and-mouth disease, which affects farm animals, but is considered infectious.
The disease can cause a sore mouth for a day or two before a rash appears, which causes blisters on the hands and feet and sores inside the mouth.
Blisters may also appear on the buttocks of very young children.
It can also cause a mild fever and symptoms usually last for seven to 10 days and disappear without medical treatment.
Coincidence considering Wales was hit worse with flooding?
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"The condition is not related to the devastating foot-and-mouth disease"
But Andrew posted about it anyway.
Andrew, once again you are ignoring the facts.
There is no FMD in this country and there is no rabies. The man in Scotland died of another disease. This isn't some petty technical difference as you are trying to imply. He worked with bats so he would have been vaccinated against rabies; if he had been bitten by a rabid bat it wouldn't have killed him.
If EBL were the same as rabies he would still be alive.
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Andrew, tell me to bog off if you wish...but...
I think it would help if you had seperate topics for FMD, Rabies, Blue Tongue and such, otherwise its all (or seems to be) a mixed bag of topics and im sure people are just not able to follow where this topic is going. If there were clear and seperate topics with your ideas and then contributions to just the one topic, it would not seem confused.
just an idea.
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Hi Paul
This topic is about how weather affects animal and human physiology, by lowering body temperature, slowing down circulation and leaving both animals and humans susceptible to disease. It’s not about one specific disease. If you would like to add a thread about a specific disease, please feel free to do so.
My research by the way was taken into consideration in the Devon Foot and Mouth Inquiry. MAFF asked me not to pester them during the outbreak saying they found the connection interesting but it was the wrong time to bring it up. (presumably because they were involved in destroying lives along with livestock rather than stopping and listening to what others were saying. Well we saw the destruction these clever people caused to all concerned.
The thread makes a prediction that following the recent floods in certain areas there will be a knock on effect with the onset of virus. Hand foot and mouth disease is something I have studied for a while in that it also appears to follow a similar pattern relating to weather events in other countries.
Ironically it arrives in Wales where some of the worst flooding has occurred. Not London where the two largest airports are and where more people from countries with this virus are likely to arrive, but in Wales where they have a small airport which obviously reduces the risk of imported virus. Yet in Wales we see a boom in Blue Tongue where the whole of Wales is infected and now the arrival of another disease.
Again read the first thread, it predicts this too. Maybe not the exact disease but certainly the arrival of new diseases and if we get more flooding in areas and more very damp humid conditions in the valleys, we should see this virus spreading rapidly.
BC it is obvious where your loyalties are.
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"MAFF asked me not to pester them during the outbreak"
Have they got back to you since?
My gues in no for 2 reasons. Firstly they were replaced bt DEFRA in about 2001; they do'n exist. Secondly DEFRA are very capable of doing their own statistcal analysis of the effects of the weather.
Wales is a very agricultural area; London isn't.
You would need to be madder than our cows to think there was going to be an outbreak of FMD in London.
"BC it is obvious where your loyalties are."
I'm glad to hear it.
My loyalties lie with evidence based science. A look at the posts I have made in the past will show that I am not one to leave a non-evinced idea unchallenged, so once again I'm asking you to provide evidence that there is FMD in the UK.
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"MAFF asked me not to pester them during the outbreak"
Have they got back to you since?
My guess is "no" for 2 reasons. Firstly they were replaced bt DEFRA in about 2001; they dont exist. Secondly DEFRA are very capable of doing their own statistical analysis of the effects of the weather.
Wales is a very agricultural area; London isn't.
You would need to be madder than our cows to think there was going to be an outbreak of FMD in London.
"BC it is obvious where your loyalties are."
I'm glad to hear it.
My loyalties lie with evidence based science. A look at the posts I have made in the past will show that I am not one to leave a non-evinced idea unchallenged, so once again I'm asking you to provide evidence that there is FMD in the UK.
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LOL they weren't replaced they just changed the name so the next screw up wouldn't sound so bad.
MAFF DEFRA = same And no, their analysis of the weather relates to which way the wind is blowing,and how the virus might be blown from one area to another. Hardly the same. And definately not what the effect of the weather has on animal physiology.
My post was refering to Hand Foot And Mouth disease in Wales rather than London if you re-read it sorry for confusion.
No they didn't get back to me! What does that have to do with anything?
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Received reply after 13 Months waiting, from Adrian Sanders MP relating to my paper on foot and mouth disease. Although the reply is concise it does state that DEFRA found it very interesting. Furthermore Adrian has said in a letter that he is willing to help in any way that he can.
DEFRA
Department for Environment,
Food & Rural Affairs
Monday, 13 August 2001
Dear Minister
Thank you for your reply to my paper on the recent and past outbreaks of foot and mouth disease virus.
In your letter dated 3rd of August addressed from Bradley Bates Private Secretary Your refer to the OIE statistics on FMD outbreaks in Egypt, Israel, Kuwait and Namibia, which as you say were referenced in my paper on page 7. And recommend that my paper may need to be refined to account for these references.
In reply to this I would like to add:
Points relating to your letter:
1. Cattle and sheep cannot survive the hot dry harsh conditions of a desert anymore than we can, without an ample supply of water! Only a few nomadic tribes manage to exist in such conditions and are able to do so because they have obtained a source of water for themselves and any livestock.
2. Therefore any intensive livestock programme would undoubtedly require a substantial amount of water. Be it from a river, aquifers or intensive irrigation project utilising desalinated water!
3. When irrigation takes place in a hot area such as a desert or semi-desert, the huge amount of evaporation, which inevitably arises from the land substantially, increases the localised humidity. It is a well established scientific fact that warm air holds more water than cold air and this is particularly important when applied to the respiratory tract and skin as it is the warmth in our own bodies that facilitates the expiration of evaporated water from the lungs and skin! As is also the case with sheep, cattle, Etc.
4. Egypt's irrigation programmes are inevitably tied with the supply of water from the River Nile! Which also produces the rich soils used, by the farming community! The Nile as is the case with most rivers is situated in a low-lying area because of the nature of water. Therefore, where river water is used for irrigation, common sense tells us that any such areas would be in close proximity with the main source of water. This is important, because it means that cattle and sheep would be living in high humidity areas! I.E. River valley areas. (you will find reference to river valley areas and the work of Leslie Munro, who conducted extensive statistical analysis of the high incidences of cot-deaths, occurring in river valley areas. His work is now included in the Open Universities Statistics collection, shown on BBC's Open Universities Programmes.)
5. Where Livestock farming is applied in housed / sheltered areas the problem of localised humidity becomes as paradoxically important as the above mentioned problems with irrigation. Confining large numbers of animals in a building with free access to water would undoubtedly substantially increase the localised humidity, given the evaporation from these animals and the evaporation from urine and excrement. This is precisely why moving animals from open areas to enclosed areas will not resolve the foot and mouth disease problem! Furthermore, in hot climates the problems of increased localised humidity in enclosed conditions would only serve to increase localised humidity.
6. It was interesting to read, in the reports from previous and recent outbreaks in the UK, the investigations into whether anglers could be spreading the disease downstream, indicating a possible known rout of infection following river flow. No virus was detected in the rivers, yet the link is there. Could it be that the route the virus takes is directly linked to the location of high humidity in river valley areas? And that the path the virus takes in spreading from one location to another runs juxtapose to the river? As does the rainfall in such areas! For example: Warm humid air is heavier than warm dry air and therefore must follow the familiar distribution/flow of water. This is precisely why mist flows from the sea up through the estuaries and into the river valley's and vice-versa. And why mist rolls down from the mountains into the valleys.
7. I would be interested to learn if any epidemiological studies have been conducted to determine a link between the locations of known past and recent confirmed outbreaks of foot and mouth disease virus? I put it to you that there would be a link between animals grazed in river valley areas and low lying inland and coastal areas! I will gladly work with DEFRA to see if there is a link here!
8. How does the culling policy hope to address the fact that all wildlife such as Hibernating hedgehogs, foxes, birds, dear, etc (which are all known carriers), will make sure that all attempts to eradicate foot and mouth disease by culling are futile! You simply cannot send men out into the field and expect them to shoot every single virus dead, anymore than you can expect men to go out in the field and shoot all of the wildlife dead!
9. What will become clear in the report of the next enquiry is that Britain has not been disease free since the last major outbreaks of the 60's and that there have been many so called contained outbreaks, which have not yet realised publicity! With this in mind, what is the point of the culling policy? Surely it cannot be to maintain Britain's disease free status when reports have already confirmed that Britain has undoubtedly been affected by foot and mouth disease since the 1960's.
The weather in the UK over the summer has been unusually humid, particularly in the coastal areas. Should the weather during the Autumn and Winter Months reflect the weather of the last Autumn and Winter Months, we will see a significant return of the disease! As I stated in my paper, the virus is here to stay! High humidity and damp environmental and meteorological conditions lower the animal's resistance's to infection and this gives rise to outbreaks of foot and mouth disease virus and many other viruses.
I hope that this addresses your concerns about the link with humidity. Should you require further elaboration on any part of this reply please do let me know.
I have requested a meeting with MAFF in order to discus my findings. As yet, I have not been invited. I now put it to DEFRA that we should meet as soon as possible so that you can fully understand the implications of my research. I will gladly work alongside DEFRA in order to resolve this situation. What do you have to lose by listening to a man who claims to have some answers and wants to help his country to resolve a current and The pending crisis's?
I await your reply with interest and again thank you for responding to my paper on Foot and Mouth Disease.
Respectfully yours
Andrew K Fletcher
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Presumably he has noticed
1 a wet Summer
2 No outbreak
and come to the conclusion that wet Summer =/= FMD.
He may also have seen the results of direct testing of various wild animals for various diseases which the governement undertakes as a regular precaution which show the virus isn't here. Perhaps he just checked that we export meat to the EU. They wouldn't take it if it failed the tests for FMD.
Anyway, I'm sure we are all still waiting for your evidence that there is FMD in the UK but we haven't noticed.
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Indeed we will have to wait for the right climatic conditions and observe whether F&M is evident. Til then we can look for other indicative links to pathogens and weather. And as this is not related to the UK but related to weather and disease we can look to other countries for the evidence needed.
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"And as this is not related to the UK "
Have you read the title you gave this thread?
Anyway- still no evidence then. Any reasonable refutation of the evidence for its absense?
Let us know if this changes.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthcomment/3460606/Cattle-not-badgers-are-reservoir-of-bovine-TB.html
Cattle, not badgers, are reservoir of bovine TB
Bovine TB is not a threat to the health of Britain's badgers but farming unions are, says Trevor Lawson from the Badger Trust.
Last Updated: 6:36PM GMT 14 Nov 2008
Badger - Cattle, not badgers, are reservoir of bovine TB
Badger: bovine TB is a growing problem in Britain Photo: JANE MINGAY
Of the 10,000 badgers killed in TB hotspots during the recent badger culling trial, less than two per cent were significantly lesioned with bovine TB.
But the trial discovered something more significant.
When TB testing was suspended during foot and mouth disease, the disease spread within and between herds. Then, it increased in badgers. When TB testing in cattle was resumed, TB declined in badgers a few months later.
The implication is clear: cattle, not badgers, are the reservoir of bovine TB.
The leading scientists who studied the disease concluded that badger culling could make "no meaningful contribution" to bovine TB control. Their work was published in the world's leading scientific journals.
But this was rather embarrassing for Britain's cattle vets. For 30 years, they had staked their professional reputations on blaming badgers.
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So, still wrong about FMD then?
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Well, after a fairly wet Summer, Autumn and Winter, we have now reached Spring.
Either Andrew is wrong about the effect of the weather or he was wrong about the virus being present in the UK.
To be fair, unlike some stuff on this site, at least Andrew's point was scientific; it was easy to test it. You just had to wait till Summer was over and see if there was an outbreak of FMD.
For those of you who have forgotten this was his prediction "I predict that Foot and Mouth Disease will plague the farming industry once again due to this unusually wet summer.".
It has now been tested and found not to be true.
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Hi
With regard to one of the points dealing with the disposal of the carcasses, The land where 250,000 of the animals that were disposed off is being monitored see: http://www.cl-voelcker.com/case%20study/tow%20law.asp.
I wonder how long this monitoring will be necessary?
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Probably not very long. Viruses don't generally last well in the environment.
Incidentally, it's just gone midsummer and we still seem not to have a plague of F+M. This sugests that ther established science was correct and Andrew was mistaken.
Edit
Summer's gone.
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Probably not very long. Viruses don't generally last well in the environment.
Incidentally, it's just gone midsummer and we still seem not to have a plague of F+M. This sugests that ther established science was correct and Andrew was mistaken.
Edit
Summer's gone.
My word, it has been a long time now hasn't it.
And not a sign of Andrew's predicted F+M outbreak.
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BC...
And, I thought you were the one who would complain about resurrecting old long dead threads!!!!!
Anyway, I would agree that elimination of diseases requires the elimination of the reservoirs. That is why hoof & mouth disease is treated so aggressively.
If there is no reservoir, there is no disease.
Diseases with ground or wild animal reservoirs are much harder to eliminate. Likewise, a disease like chickenpox may take a century to wipe out even with aggressive vaccinations due to its long dormant phase.
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I have to concede that the foot and mouth disease virus is not present in the UK in either wildlife or farm stock. Had it have been we should have seen evidence given the constant deluge we have had over the year.