Naked Science Forum

Life Sciences => The Environment => Topic started by: yor_on on 15/09/2010 18:40:18

Title: climate patterns and statistics
Post by: yor_on on 15/09/2010 18:40:18

Patterns in the climate change mosaic. (http://www.esa.org/esablog/ecology-in-policy/patterns-in-the-climate-change-mosaic/) 

Do you agree?

Title: climate patterns and statistics
Post by: LeeE on 17/09/2010 01:09:32

It certainly raises a valid issue.

I think the best illustration of how causality in statistics can be misinterpreted, that I've heard of, was the hypothetical one that looked at the percentage of tea-drinkers in gaol, which implied that because > 98% of the inmates drank tea, the most common factor in committing crimes was the consumption of tea.

Title: climate patterns and statistics
Post by: Geezer on 17/09/2010 04:44:33

Quote from: LeeE on 17/09/2010 01:09:32

It certainly raises a valid issue.

I think the best illustration of how causality in statistics can be misinterpreted, that I've heard of, was the hypothetical one that looked at the percentage of tea-drinkers in gaol, which implied that because > 98% of the inmates drank tea, the most common factor in committing crimes was the consumption of tea.

Oi! Is you saying I'm a tea leaf then?

Title: climate patterns and statistics
Post by: yor_on on 18/09/2010 12:16:03

Thank God I bought me some coffee :)
Eh, that is safe I hope?

One more thing to worry about :)