Naked Science Forum

General Science => General Science => Topic started by: CZARCAR on 22/08/2011 14:22:31

Title: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: CZARCAR on 22/08/2011 14:22:31

http://www.weatheraction.com/     His site . Anti or pro global warming perspective opinions not wanted= just want reflections as to PC's accuracy especially in the UK.....thanx
click around the site to find his claims as to prior predictions.

Title: Re: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: CZARCAR on 22/08/2011 14:34:16

& then this pops   http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-08-ancient-clams-yield-greenhouse-effect.html

Title: Re: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: Mazurka on 23/08/2011 10:10:19

Mr Corbyn is the master of the hindcast.

It is a clever method along the lines of:

1) Devise radical forecasting technique
2) Make vauge forecast
3) include at least one extreme event or "potential" extreme event (to make newsworthy)
4) be geographically vauge
5) analyse forecast after several weeks after the forecasted period
7) claim unprecedented accuracy or describe forecast cleverly to "fit" events
6) profit.

Title: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: CZARCAR on 25/08/2011 15:42:50

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-14637647   i'm not a PC fan but am impressed by the limited media exposure i've received on him

Title: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: Bored chemist on 26/08/2011 10:43:26

His forcasts simply don't seem to be very accurate.

Title: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: CZARCAR on 10/10/2011 11:41:22

http://www.physorg.com/news/2011-10-link-solar-winter-weather-revealed.html   just found this & i think PC's method involves some solar consideration which is unorthodox

Title: What are you views on Piers Corbyn's weather forecasting?
Post by: Mazurka on 10/10/2011 16:53:39

What little I know of PC's forecasts are that they are based upon solar activity.  With a little bit more reputable science beheind it, it does appear that solar radiation (particualrly in the UV) can affect temperature distributions, thus effect the weather.

Still does not get around his distressing tendency to hindcast...