Naked Science Forum

On the Lighter Side => New Theories => Topic started by: guest39538 on 28/03/2018 22:00:10

Title: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 28/03/2018 22:00:10
A coin is 3 dimensional , there is a 1/3 chance of the coin in a coin toss landing on heads.  The coin has 3 sides.


Welcome to my world and true reality.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/03/2018 02:11:58
A coin is 3 dimensional , there is a 1/3 chance of the coin in a coin toss landing on heads.  The coin has 3 sides.


Welcome to my world and true reality.
Your world may well be interesting, but it's not real.

Go and talk to a qualified physician/ doctor about this.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 07:55:21
A coin is 3 dimensional , there is a 1/3 chance of the coin in a coin toss landing on heads.  The coin has 3 sides.


Welcome to my world and true reality.
Your world may well be interesting, but it's not real.

Go and talk to a qualified physician/ doctor about this.
Wow your math is poor. 
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 08:38:17
Proof

 [ Invalid Attachment ]

Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: evan_au on 29/03/2018 09:07:03
When I was in high-school geology, we were about to go on a field excursion, and the teacher was trying to get us to think about marine sediments. He asked if you had a curved bivalve shell, and you dropped it into sediment, would it most likely end concave-up or concave-down?

I think we must have been struggling to understand the concept, so he looked around, and grabbed the nearest concave thing he could see - a plastic lens cover for a projector. He asked the question again, and flipped it in the air.

It landed on the narrow rim of the lens cap. The class erupted in laughter at the sheer improbability of it (if that's a word).

I still don't know whether bivalves are likely to end concave up or down, but do I remember the lens cap on its third side!
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: alancalverd on 29/03/2018 09:19:45
There is a significant difference between possibility and probability. The inability to distinguish the two is called paranoia.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 09:43:05
There is a significant difference between possibility and probability. The inability to distinguish the two is called paranoia.
Are you suggesting I am  paranoid in considering the third side? A possibility is a possibility after all, it is not 100% impossible for the coin to land on the 3rd side.
Therefore 1/2 is not exact and I have shown math to be wrong.

People have been telling me I am wrong for years about x ≠ y ,   I have been telling them they are wrong for years, this is proof of my thinking about probability.

If ''you'' are wrong about 1/2, which is simplicity, how can you believe  you are correct on other things?

I think this shows the doubt I am talking about and the uncertainty. 

I understand random really really well.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 09:44:37
When I was in high-school geology, we were about to go on a field excursion, and the teacher was trying to get us to think about marine sediments. He asked if you had a curved bivalve shell, and you dropped it into sediment, would it most likely end concave-up or concave-down?

I think we must have been struggling to understand the concept, so he looked around, and grabbed the nearest concave thing he could see - a lens cover for a projector. He asked the question again, and flipped it in the air.

It landed on the narrow rim of the lens cap.

I still don't know whether bivalves are likely to end concave up or down, but I remember the lens cap on its third side!
Indeed there is possibility of the third side that leaves an uncertainty of 1/2


P.s If it was just the concave or convex lens, it lands either side because of c.o.m
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 09:48:44
12
21
21

x ≠ y 

x=1/2

y= (1/3) / (1/2)

Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/03/2018 12:20:15
Proof


* £1.jpg (117.83 kB . 576x960 - viewed 3386 times)


Your coin has 14 sides.
12 of them are round the edge and there are two roughly dodecagonal ones.
As I said, the world where 14 is the same as three may be interesting, but it's not this one.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 13:25:13
Proof


* £1.jpg (117.83 kB . 576x960 - viewed 3386 times)


Your coin has 14 sides.
12 of them are round the edge and there are two roughly dodecagonal ones.
As I said, the world where 14 is the same as three may be interesting, but it's not this one.
You replied, pfff, I also can't be ignorant so I have to reply thanks for not listening.  Obviously the newer pound coins are not round anymore which I never noticed.  But regardless of that I am still correct, so do you think it might hurt you once in a while , to say , '' hey the box, yeah you are right''. 

I admit when I know or have been proved to be wrong that I am wrong.  Something you do very little but I suppose that is the politician in you.

Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/03/2018 14:54:44
I admit when I know or have been proved to be wrong that I am wrong.
No, you do not. for example, when you said this

there is a 1/3 chance of the coin in a coin toss landing on heads. 

You don't seem to have admitted to being wrong about it yet?
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 15:12:43
I admit when I know or have been proved to be wrong that I am wrong.
No, you do not. for example, when you said this

there is a 1/3 chance of the coin in a coin toss landing on heads. 

You don't seem to have admitted to being wrong about it yet?
If something has 3 sides what is the chance of landing on any specific side if tossed?

How many sides does a ten pence coin have?
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: alancalverd on 29/03/2018 15:39:36
Please, O wise one, calculate the probability of a coin of diameter d and thickness t landing stably on its edge. You have all the required information.
Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 15:43:56
Please, O wise one, calculate the probability of a coin of diameter d and thickness t landing stably on its edge. You have all the required information.

c437fa744de24ee33621872064351a35.gif?


using a 10 pence piece I have 24.55mm/1.85mm = 13.2432432432*

which looks nothing like 1/3 maybe it is a percentage , no idea do you know how to do it?

Don't we have to account for force as well and speed of the rotation of the coin?

p.s it is a really small chance , there is more chance of the coin bouncing and leaning up against something.

added- If i use 5 p i get an answer of 10.5882352941  so d/t cant be right .


Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/03/2018 18:34:41
How many sides does a ten pence coin have?
Many- the edges are milled.
If something has 3 sides what is the chance of landing on any specific side if tossed?
It depends.
If the thing is a right cylinder then you can calculate the odds from the ratio of the diameter to the height.
Your guess that it's the ratio is not correct.

You can get the answer from here
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/softmat/downloads/2011-10.pdf

And, as we already pointed out, the chance for any real coin isn't 1/3

So, you were wrong  and yet you haven't yet done what you said you would.

Title: Re: You think a coin toss is 1/2 , wrong!
Post by: guest39538 on 29/03/2018 19:10:59
How many sides does a ten pence coin have?
Many- the edges are milled.
If something has 3 sides what is the chance of landing on any specific side if tossed?
It depends.
If the thing is a right cylinder then you can calculate the odds from the ratio of the diameter to the height.
Your guess that it's the ratio is not correct.

You can get the answer from here
https://www.seas.harvard.edu/softmat/downloads/2011-10.pdf

And, as we already pointed out, the chance for any real coin isn't 1/3

So, you were wrong  and yet you haven't yet done what you said you would.


It is not 1/2 either though , 1/3 was in general not exact, yes I was wrong it is not exactly 1/3 but Can you admit it is not 1/2?