Naked Science Forum
Life Sciences => Physiology & Medicine => COVID-19 => Topic started by: scientizscht on 13/03/2020 13:18:27
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Hello
How fast do symptoms progress in covid-19?
I read there is a gradual onset but no other information.
Thanks!
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I read there is a gradual onset but no other information.
Hello
How fast do symptoms progress in covid-19?
I read there is a gradual onset but no other information.
Thanks!
Covid onset gave me nearly 14 million hits on Google.
In what sense is that "no information"?
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A recent study of 100 people whose date of exposure could be identified with a day or so found that:
- In those who developed the disease, symptoms appeared between 5 and 12 days after exposure
- Extrapolating the distribution, the authors estimated that about 1 in 1000 cases would develop symptoms after the 14 day quarantine period.
- So you can't just release people after quarantine, and say "You don't have it!". You have to say "If you develop virus symptoms after this, self-quarantine again".
Unfortunately, it appears that an infected person can spread the virus before they show symptoms, which means the disease will be harder to control.
Those statistics reported here (towards the end): https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/the-best-way-to-wash-your-hands/12046896
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Unfortunately, it appears that an infected person can spread the virus before they show symptoms, which means the disease will be harder to control.
Not necessarily. If if's (say) one in a thousand, you may be able to stay ahead of it enough with quarantine measures. Like a thousand people have it, and you quarantine them, but one escapes quarantine because they didn't have any symptoms. Oh dear. But then you find and quarantine the few dozen that caught it off them, and then probably nobody catches it off them, so the number of people infected decreases to zero.
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Unfortunately, it appears that an infected person can spread the virus before they show symptoms, which means the disease will be harder to control.
Not necessarily. If if's (say) one in a thousand, you may be able to stay ahead of it enough with quarantine measures. Like a thousand people have it, and you quarantine them, but one escapes quarantine because they didn't have any symptoms. Oh dear. But then you find and quarantine the few dozen that caught it off them, and then probably nobody catches it off them, so the number of people infected decreases to zero.
That's still "harder to control", just like Evan said.
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Acting early during a pandemic is critical. Also, what steps you actually take will matter. Open and transparent public information will help. Hiding the extent of a pandemic will only worsen the outcome.
Then you have testing. The countries that are most effective at combating the pandemic are now providing drive through testing. This help people to decide whether or not to self isolate.
Banning large gatherings is another method that can be used. Overall, the intention should be to protect the most vulnerable. They will bear the brunt.
Another concern is the possibility that the hospitals and emergency services become overwhelmed. This is the worst case scenario.