Post by: Petrochemicals on 17/03/2020 15:47:35
Also lombardy in italy has a population of 10 million, to date it has 1,500 deaths, its pretty bad with peak figures at present around 252 death per day, this is pretty bad. Do you think that this region is a good estimator of severity ? It seems pretty likely that this virus has been all the way around the populace by now in lombardy to me. It seems to be maxing out at about 25 deaths per million per day, but for how long is anyones guess.
Edit 8.32pm on 17th march
Its been 10 days since the italian lockdown on the 8th march, these cases are estimated to have been caught before lockdown.
France has less cases yet has a far higher ratio
Edit. 10.30pm.march 17
Lombardy has max 252 not 350 so ammended original post.
Edit 11pm march 17
In hubei the lock down began on the 23rd of january, new cases peaked on the 4th feb but deaths came to a level at the 10th feb of around 100 and continued until the end of February, so thats about 13 days for incubation peak and 19 for peak mortality, continuing for about 3 weeks.
Edit 18th march 2.41pm
The flu pandemic of 2017 2018 peaked for about 5 weeks , it totalled about 80000 deaths for the winter in the us. I would think the vast majority in those 5 weeks. Estimating about 5 deaths per million per day. Current corona virus looks to be about 5 times as lethal for about the same time scale.
Post by: alancalverd on 17/03/2020 18:43:33
In a nutshell, you can't derive much sense from the statistics.
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/03/2020 19:22:42
Essentially they had bad luck.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 17/03/2020 20:17:37
You would expect the true deaths/cases ratio to be fairly constant throughout Europe as intensive care is pretty well established everywhere. But whilst death is unequivocal, the reported infection rate depends on self-reporting and accurate diagnosis, and the true infection rate will vary between urban and rural societies, and those with a social emphasis on "pubs and clubs" versus home entertaining. And those countries that suffered extreme civilian casualties in WWII will have fewer vulnerable older folk.....Of thse points,
In a nutshell, you can't derive much sense from the statistics.
The ww2 generation has gone, so are most hitler youth (think pope benedict) although germany did have the soviets (famed health care though) and any losses of younger would not factor to that degree.
Lombardy is a very rich highly populated area like london of the uk.
I doubt very much that people in the country side are running around getting tested.
Perhaps the famed italian efficiency showing up the lackadaisical german attitude again.
Post by: alancalverd on 17/03/2020 23:01:04
The ww2 generation has gone,As have their first generation children. On business visits to Minsk over the last 20 years it was clear that there were almost no people older than me, the city and surrounding areas having suffered something like 95% extermination between 1941 and 1944. I am 75, so in at least one potential pocket there are very few candidates at high risk.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 18/03/2020 18:00:24
Nope my moms 1944 and my aunt 1937, she still remembers the war, uncle 1939. They would have been young though. Since when has minsk been in Germany? I thought it was in Romania ?The ww2 generation has gone,As have their first generation children. On business visits to Minsk over the last 20 years it was clear that there were almost no people older than me, the city and surrounding areas having suffered something like 95% extermination between 1941 and 1944. I am 75, so in at least one potential pocket there are very few candidates at high risk.
Reallyi suppose this is a bad flu year without the aid of vaccines, I do not know when they came in?
Post by: alancalverd on 18/03/2020 21:29:07
Post by: Petrochemicals on 18/03/2020 22:37:43
No, it's the capital of Belarus, and has been for almost 1000 years. The population was mostly butchered by the occupying Nazis, then bombed by the advancing Soviets in 1944.Must be why bulgaria has no cases then !
Post by: Petrochemicals on 18/03/2020 23:40:26
Maybe the china lockdown may have forced close quarters with infected people, thus extending the infection period ? Where as lombardy may have already done its damage.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 22/03/2020 17:19:53
Post by: Petrochemicals on 23/03/2020 23:30:36
This i summise means that when people are in lockdown transmission is taking place, 7 days between catching the virus and exibiting symptoms, and 6 to 7 days between new cases and death. Estimating that mortality in lombardy will decline until the 25th and then increace until the peak on the 27th. If so this means that the virus was not entirely spread throughout lombardy at lockdown, but it does mean that lombardy is progressing differently than wuhan due to the 2 (one estimated) peaks in mortality. Does this mean that there where two peaks in wuhan, but due to chance the peaks and troughts are virtually undistinguishable ?
Also, we are 2 weeks behind italy, we could lend them ventilators as our first week peak (7-14 days) will coincide with there 21 to 28 day maximum , but im sure the usa or other countries could.
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/03/2020 08:33:56
we could lend them ventilatorsI forget which way round it was but Germany offered to help out France (or vice versa).
This i summise means that when people are in lockdown transmission is taking place,
It's pretty much guaranteed to. If you shut the family up in one house 24/7 then, if anyone has it, they will all get it.
Post by: set fair on 24/03/2020 23:15:39
Post by: RD on 31/03/2020 19:46:31
UK COVID-19 daily increase.png (33.49 kB . 802x587 - viewed 9294 times)https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Post by: alancalverd on 31/03/2020 23:18:06
Now here we have a disease that is particularly virulent among the elderly with cardio-respiratory comorbidities. So did he die from COVID, pneumonia, or cardiac insufficiency? Pretty much a matter of opinion. Testing doesn't really help - it may confirm that the patient died with COVID, but not from it.
And we still have a huge imbalance of numbers and types of tests between countries. Whilst death may be fairly unequivocal (even allowing for a variance in reporting preferences) the number of confirmed cases depends on the number of credible tests and the pool of infected persons. Plus there is a variation in test outcomes: an antibody test will quickly indicate ongoing infection or a successful recovery from an infection that the patient did not consider sufficiently serious to refer, whereas a PCR test for viral RNA (a) takes a lot longer to report and (b) only detects active virus.
Once you have resolved the morass of statistical uncertainties, you might be able to discern a difference in treatment outcomes, but that would be better investigated by direct comparison of procedures, which may vary as much within a country as between countries.
Post by: RD on 02/04/2020 20:53:12
UK COVID-19, new cases, daily increase new ,1st April 2020.png (44.92 kB . 977x631 - viewed 7942 times)https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Post by: Petrochemicals on 02/04/2020 22:21:42
I spoke too soon (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=78983.msg597791#msg597791) ...Quarantine uk comes to the 13 day period around sunday 19 the following saturday, so a way to go yet. Most worrying thing is our hospitals where not full at the 200 mark, yet 200 per day where passing even with full medical treatment.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Lombardy is appearing different to wuhan as its peak mortality was 13 days in also, appears to be fully spread in lombardy, as from the 13day post quarantine to the 19 mortality is equal ie about a 1 to 1 transmission , maximum 550, but really maxing at about 350, or 35 per million per day. That is 2000 per 60 million per day if all at once or staggered over the country at about 1500, so these quarantine measures are levelling the curve throughout the country. After 14 days quarantine appears to have had all of its desired affect and at 28 days the virus appears to have run its course in Wuhan. I wonder really how long lombardy will take to descend from the 350, +28 days is the 11th april, how to calculate the infection percent ?
There has been some question on the wuhan numbers, claims of mis reporting/ under reporting.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 10/04/2020 18:06:19
Thats 19 days for the uk today since lockdown on the 10th march
19 for new york yesterday on the 9th or today on the 10th
France and spain reached 19 days on the 2nd of april
Lombardy has reached the 28 day since lockdown with the same pattern as Wuhan, 2 weeks-ish post 13 day peak on the and deaths have continued at a steady level of around the 350 average. Looks alot like the chinese clamped down alot faster, but i cannot see any indication of severity of infection in lombardy other than it had two peaks in mortality, one on the 13 and one on the 19 day after lockdown. It is currently at a mortality rate of 0.1% on the lombardy population.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 15/04/2020 22:46:47
Now ~linear growth: ~2.5K new cases per day in UK ...Strangely its now linear in the uk around the 4000 5000 mark, has been since the 1st april which is around a week into lockdown, even after 21 days in lockdown and looks like it will be linear for about 3 weeks. Cases did peak on the 13th day after quarantine, but deaths peaked the 17 rather than the 19
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Post by: Petrochemicals on 06/05/2020 21:33:14
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2804670/80-people-die-Britain-DAY-flu-pneumonia-Europe.html
Although University Oxford estimates 600 a year,.
https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/health/1237961/coronavirus-fatality-rate-vs-flu-how-deadly-is-coronavirus-flu-death-toll-2020
Post by: Petrochemicals on 11/05/2020 21:49:50
Post by: Petrochemicals on 28/08/2020 19:29:55
Post by: alancalverd on 28/08/2020 23:19:03
Since 80% of infections do not require any medical intervention, testing protocols vary from country to country, and tests are of dubious validity, we have no idea how many people are infected. The cause of death is not usually COVID but another respiratory infection exacerbatied by COVID, or an excessive inflammatory response to COVID, so even if a postmortem gives a positive COVID test (and why would anyone bother with a postmortem if the corpse is over 60 and probably infected?) the cvause of death may not be reported as COVID.
The only reliable statistic is excess deaths compared with the 5-year average for a given period, and that figure itself will now be distorted because the most vulnerable (aged 70 - 90) have already died - it will take another 20 years to repopulate the at-risk cohort.
The "2 week" figure refers to the incubation period from infection to symptoms. From the appearance of disabling symptoms to death is another 4 to 6 weeks, with around 20% mortality among those admitted to hospital.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/08/2020 00:21:29
The only conclusion you can draw from "the numbers" is that they are pretty meaningless.Nope the 2 week figure is peak cases to peak deaths as seen in countries around the globe, a 2 week lag.
Since 80% of infections do not require any medical intervention, testing protocols vary from country to country, and tests are of dubious validity, we have no idea how many people are infected. The cause of death is not usually COVID but another respiratory infection exacerbatied by COVID, or an excessive inflammatory response to COVID, so even if a postmortem gives a positive COVID test (and why would anyone bother with a postmortem if the corpse is over 60 and probably infected?) the cvause of death may not be reported as COVID.
The only reliable statistic is excess deaths compared with the 5-year average for a given period, and that figure itself will now be distorted because the most vulnerable (aged 70 - 90) have already died - it will take another 20 years to repopulate the at-risk cohort.
The "2 week" figure refers to the incubation period from infection to symptoms. From the appearance of disabling symptoms to death is another 4 to 6 weeks, with around 20% mortality among those admitted to hospital.
As for the under reporting, that was more likely with limited tests and clinincal diagnosis, plus lack of testing under reporting true case numbers due to very limited accesability early on.
Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?
https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall
Post by: alancalverd on 29/08/2020 09:27:48
Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?
https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall
Precisely my point. You take a highly infectious disease with significant associated mortality and disastrous morbidity, and interpret the statistics as a Good Thing. Next step is to abolish all social restrictions and infect a new cohort.
If we could persuade more teenagers to get drunk and throw themselves under buses, the teenage mortality figures would eventually decline.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/08/2020 13:10:35
yep with the deaths of 10 million young fit healthy people. This corona is declining, with resonable factual interpolation that most of the country has now had it. I could be wrong, this could be the summer lull or effects of shielding, but you have to reccon that heard immunity is now in effect to some degree. ONS estimations of 2 to 3 thousand a day. Putting infection at the height at something like a quarter of a million people.Plus corona saves lives doesnt it ?
https://www.theactuary.com/2020/08/19/excess-deaths-england-and-wales-continue-fall
Precisely my point. You take a highly infectious disease with significant associated mortality and disastrous morbidity, and interpret the statistics as a Good Thing. Next step is to abolish all social restrictions and infect a new cohort.
If we could persuade more teenagers to get drunk and throw themselves under buses, the teenage mortality figures would eventually decline.
Quote
interpretlook whos interpreting now
Post by: alancalverd on 29/08/2020 15:19:47
If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/08/2020 16:25:32
The daily maximum is of little consequence - if it has any statistical value, it merely reflects changes in human behavior and the frequency of testing.The two paragraphs are contradictory, one deriles the daily mamximum, whilst the other relies on it.
If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/08/2020 16:58:08
If you have more reliable figures which authoritatively support your assertion that
Quote
most of the country has now had it, we'd all be the wiser for seeing them.
It is fairly obvious that the reported number of infected people is an underestimate as many will have taken to their beds or even carried on as usual without seeking a test. It is also certain that the number of COVID-related deaths is an understimate for reasons I have stated elsewhere.
The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.
Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.
What really annoys me is that, if it were not for COVID, I would now be on holiday in Greenland - one of the few countries to have no reported cases in the last 14 days!
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/08/2020 17:53:08
This corona is declining, with resonable factual interpolation that most of the country has now had it. I could be wrong,You are wrong.
New cases are rising (albeit slowly)since a low point of about 300 per day in early July.
https://www.google.com/search?q=corona+deaths+uk&oq=corona+deaths+uk&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.4374j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/08/2020 21:52:17
.Yet the miracle of trump bolsonaro continues 14 percent of cases, but come 2 weeks it is not going to be 14 percent of victims.
Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/08/2020 22:01:26
The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.I think their are other circumstances, for example the ethnic mix ? Alot of warm climate mimmigrants, plus low winter mortality due to milder climates.
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/08/2020 22:01:46
Nobdy suggested that it might be..Yet the miracle of trump bolsonaro continues 14 percent of cases, but come 2 weeks it is not going to be 14 percent of victims.
Worldwide, 14% of all reported cases have been reported in the last 14 days - 6% of the time since the first cases appeared outside China. That looks to me very much like an accelerating pandemic.
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/08/2020 22:02:48
So, lots of things that Trump and Bolsonaro are not in charge of....The official EU statistics https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/geographical-distribution-2019-ncov-cases are interesting. Germany reports 3.8% mortality in 240,000 cases, France, with less than half the population density, reports 11.4% mortality in 267,000 cases. The provision of acute health care is pretty much the same in both countries. Either having both an Atlantic and a Mediterranean coast makes the population more vulnerable, or the reporting criteria are very different.I think their are other circumstances, for example the ethnic mix ? Alot of warm climate mimmigrants, plus low winter mortality due to milder climates.
Post by: alancalverd on 29/08/2020 23:36:17
USA now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.057% of the population
Trump started late and with a much more dispersed population than Johnson, but is already ahead of Balsonaro at 0.056%. He is rapidly catching up and should overtake Johnson in a week or two, particularly if he appeals to the third umpire for an "excess deaths" count and continues to sack anyone who knows or cares about anything.
There's a pretty wide gap between this premier league and the also-rans. My prediction by the end of the year is Gold for Trump, Silver for Balsonaro, but Johnson may already have exhausted his reserves of the poor and elderly and is likely to lose the pacemaker spot and quite possibly face relegation as the professional dictators and incompetents from the Minor Countries play themselves in - this is a world knockout contest, after all.
Hopes for Bronze for Italy seem to have faded - simply having an aged population and an amateur government is no longer enough to compete with professional cynicism and total contempt for science. Hot tip among the peloton is Iran (if they continue to play the theocracy game) with early leader Spain already losing ground.
Cynical? Moi?
Post by: evan_au on 30/08/2020 00:18:04
Quote from: Petrochemicals
heard immunity is now in effect to some degreeI heard that, from the observed R0 of COVID-19, about 60-70% of people would need to be immune for the pandemic to die out. This is the condition to achieve herd immunity.
If only 30% of the population is immune in a particular country, the virus will still experience exponential-like growth*.
We know that many cases of COVID-19 are asymptomatic.
But for 60-70% of the population to be immune today, the rate of asymptomatic cases would need to increase from current estimates (some as high as 80%) to something over 99% asymptomatic.
It has proven difficult to get COVID-19 under control
- But if the asymptomatic rate was 99% or higher, it would be impossible. Contact tracing would be ineffective because there are too many asymptomatic links between symptomatic people
- A big discrepancy between 80% asymptomatic and 99% asymptomatic would have been very visible in the contact tracing and mathematical modeling
- I am inclined to think that the main difficulty with getting COVID-19 under control is that (unlike SARS), you are infectious for a day or two before symptoms appear, and people continue their daily lives for a day or two after symptoms appear before they go to get tested.
We also know that in countries like Brazil and USA there is an inadequate public health system, so people are less likely to come forward for testing or treatment.
- An authority figure like the President saying "COVID-19 is not a problem" might persuade some of the population that its not a problem
- But I think that inadequate health care is more likely the reason for the "miracle" of Brazil and USA
In the end, the death toll is harder to hide.
*Actually, more like a logistic curve, which is exponential in its early stages.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Logistic_function
Quote from: alancalverd
if it were not for COVID, I would now be on holiday in GreenlandDuring a visit to Denmark last year, our guide mentioned that the US President had planned a visit to Denmark to meet with the royal family of Denmark.
Later it came out that Donald Trump wanted to take over Greenland, which Denmark said would not happen. The presidential visit was promptly cancelled.
If things had gone differently, you may have been witnessing the Trump miracle first-hand...
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/08/2020 00:35:21
UK now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.061% of the population - an impressive start for a nation burdened with free healthcare, but years of bad management and political inbreeding have overcome that hurdle.
USA now has recorded COVID deaths at 0.057% of the population
Trump started late and with a much more dispersed population than Johnson, but is already ahead of Balsonaro at 0.056%. He is rapidly catching up and should overtake Johnson in a week or two, particularly if he appeals to the third umpire for an "excess deaths" count and continues to sack anyone who knows or cares about anything.
The daily maximum is of little consequence - if it has any statistical value, it merely reflects changes in human behavior and the frequency of testing.The trouble is alan your arguments are contradictory and erratic, the usa has around 250,000 exess mortality but has registered 6 million cases, i think you are trying to say trump is doing rather well, that must be how it sounds through gritted teeth. The US has a greater proportion of positives, running at about 2 percent statistically, surely if you factor in asymptomatic numbers you are looking at at least 6 percent, more likely at least 10 percent statistically speaking on the concrete figures we have, this could easily be alot more. Unless Dr fauchi is fabricating positive cases to make it seem a perilous situation.
If "most of the country has now had it" then there would have been at least 34,000,000 confirmed cases in the UK. So far, 332,000 people (less than 0.5% of the population) have been diagnosed with COVID, of whom 12.5% have died - more that twice the expected fatality rate and 3 times the world average. There were 1200 new cases reported yesterday.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
If we are similar yet ahead of the usa, at least 3.5 million cases on the factual evidence, but almost certainly more by a substantial factor
Post by: alancalverd on 30/08/2020 09:43:26
As I keep saying, "positives" is not a valid international comparator: you need to look at excess deaths. This year the UK is ahead at 0.081% but USA, 0.075% with a late start and handicapped by a much lower population density, is clearly doing a thorough job of killing people by negligence and misinformation, which surely is the whole point of the competition? I think we can confidently expect a big surge in the autumn with Trump emerging as world leader.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/08/2020 10:39:56
I heard that, from the observed R0 of COVID-19, about 60-70% of people would need to be immune for the pandemic to die out. This is the condition to achieve herd immunity.Only if the virus plays fair. Reinfection has already been reported in Hong Kong, with a subtle mutation that may become COVID-20.
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/08/2020 11:07:20
That will increase the disparity between the USA and the rest of the world, because most places don't actually teach people that facts are unimportant or wrong. Obviously, you need to do that if you are a hard Right government who wants to get re-elected since the facts don't support your policies.
That's going to lead to a lot of Americans who refuse to be vaccinated,
It isn't clear how Boris will fair on that score.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/08/2020 11:59:46
It isn't clear how Boris will fair on that score."We have taken note of the scientific flim-flam and wiff-waff, and spent a lot of time spaffing over it. It will be all over by Christmas. Who gives a τρακατρουκα anyway?"
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/08/2020 12:03:28
Boris says he's following the science; he's lying but... it's Boris.
Trump says the science is wrong; he's lying but... it's Trump.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/08/2020 18:41:32
Trump is doing extremely well for a democratically elected idiot. Of course his performance pales in comparison with Stalin's wild success using the Lysenko strategy, but those glory days are past and any contribution to reducing the population under the modern rules of misgovernment is welcome.You're not a polititial are you alan ? Take the fact undeniable, then birsmirch it and link it to the worlds biggest mass murderer. Worthy of Sean Spicer at his peak.
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/08/2020 18:44:12
Take the fact undeniableWhich fact did you have in mind?
The problem is that in the field of emerging diseases there are few facts and most of them are deniable.
Post by: alancalverd on 31/08/2020 13:18:41
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
Meanwhile Cummings tells the British population that they have a moral duty to send their kids to the place where they are most likely to become infected, so they can get back to work and infect everyone else.
Post by: set fair on 03/09/2020 16:28:40
Post by: alancalverd on 03/09/2020 18:11:16
If it's bad for your health and ain't stupid, it's evil.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 03/09/2020 19:25:10
Yes Cummings looks like god's gift to conspiracy theorists. Hard to put what he does down to stupidity.That would be steve bannon
Post by: Petrochemicals on 03/09/2020 19:27:22
What is undeniable is that Trump is the Anointed Saviour of Donald J Trump, and millions of idiots are prepared to lay down their lives for Him, thus establishing the USA as the world leader in death by stupidity.W
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
Meanwhile Cummings tells the British population that they have a moral duty to send their kids to the place where they are most likely to become infected, so they can get back to work and infect everyone else.
No conspiracy, just simple facts. The man is above the law and the Cabinet does what he tells them.We'll just put this in the "Alans theories of Queen selects anyone to be PM" folder
If it's bad for your health and ain't stupid, it's evil.
Post by: alancalverd on 03/09/2020 20:28:43
It's worth studying our bizarre constitution and history before coming up with new theories about it. And please don't ascribe nonsense to me.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 03/09/2020 20:40:41
An interesting theory, but whilst the election of crooks and incompetents to the post of President of the USA proves that literally anyone can get to be President, the fact remains that the British constitution requires the monarch to invite the person most likely to command a parliamentary majority, to form a government. Not "anyone". Alec Douglas-Home was appointed PM in 1963 whilst not even a member of the Commons.Was he the leader of the party and did he command the most votes in the commons ? Or did the queen select the next passing person from the streets
It's worth studying our bizarre constitution and history before coming up with new theories about it. And please don't ascribe nonsense to me.
Post by: Bored chemist on 03/09/2020 20:53:01
Was he the leader of the partyYes, but you seem to to understand that the party is a convenience, but not constitutionally significant.
There is nothing in the constitution to stop Boris defecting to the Labour party; I doubt they would have him and it might be politically awkward.
It would probably have been easier for Blair to "defect" to the Tories since he wasn't actually very Left wing.
But the MP for a constituency is decided by a vote of the residents, not by a party.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 03/09/2020 22:23:58
An interesting theory, but whilst the election of crooks and incompetents to the post of President of the USA proves that literally anyone can get to be President, the fact remains that the British constitution requires the monarch to invite the person most likely to command a parliamentary majority, to form a government. Not "anyone". Alec Douglas-Home was appointed PM in 1963 whilst not even a member of the Commons.Please read the quote below
It's worth studying our bizarre constitution and history before coming up with new theories about it. And please don't ascribe nonsense to me.
Augmeted but not taken out of context as is the habit of gaining point. According to you Mr Calverd Trump is like hitler, only Trump is much worse than either Hitler or Stalin.
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
Hitler declared biggest war in world history
Stalin biggest mass murderer in history
Trump worse
Queen picks whoever she likes for PM
Cromwell never happened
Parliament, specifically the house of commons has no power
Post by: alancalverd on 03/09/2020 23:06:51
Since Douglas-Home was not a member of the House of Commons when appointed as Prime Minister, he could not have been leader of the parliamentary Conservative party. He was never elected leader of the national party.
If you have a mind to learn something about our constitution, look up "royal prerogative". It was part of the O level history curriculum in my day.
Post by: Bored chemist on 03/09/2020 23:07:22
According to you Mr Calverd Trump is like hitler, only Trump is much worse than either Hitler or Stalin.Where did he say that?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 04:31:38
Rubbish. Try reading, thinking and learning. And don't put words into other people's mouths - that's a Trump ploy, though he's better at it.rubbish. Your words or am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ? Technically you could have a technocrat prime minister such as was italy after the crash, but this again would come from parliament and i doubt parliamet would accept it. Monarch cannot take away the independance of the commons. Holme was leader of the party, its pretty much defacto.
Since Douglas-Home was not a member of the House of Commons when appointed as Prime Minister, he could not have been leader of the parliamentary Conservative party. He was never elected leader of the national party.
If you have a mind to learn something about our constitution, look up "royal prerogative". It was part of the O level history curriculum in my day.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mario_Monti
You could try posting rubbish more often then acting offended and ingnominious, give it a go !
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/09/2020 08:47:23
According to you Mr Calverd Trump is like hitler, only Trump is much worse than either Hitler or Stalin.Where did he say that?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 09:02:34
am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?
Quote
this again would come from parliament and i doubt parliamet would accept it.You may be confused between the Speaker, who is elected by the Commons, and the Prime Minister, who is appointed by the monarch.
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/appointment-prime-ministers explains it all.
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/09/2020 10:04:36
Your words or am i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?I don't know about reading it correctly, but I'm sure Alan, for all his faults, would have written it correctly.
Nuremberg is a proper noun and gets a capital letter.
So it's clear that you are not quoting him.
It kind of looks like you are making stuff up.
Why would you do that?
Is it because you don't actually have a valid point?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 12:06:05
Post by: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 15:15:46
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
[/quote]
That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alanam i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/09/2020 17:04:44
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alanam i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?
[/quote]
Oh! I see what the problem is now.
You don't understand the difference between "There's some similarity, but there are differences of course" and
"the same thing all over again".
Not sure we can fix that.
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/09/2020 17:05:23
terroristThat escalated quickly.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 17:14:22
IIRC a paid-up member of the Labour Party was prosecuted under the Terrorism Act (significantly, no longer the Prevention of Terrorism Act) for calling Jack Straw a liar during the party conference, so my pointing out that Donald Trump is a dangerous, halfwitted shadow of his political hero, certainly falls within that precedent.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 04/09/2020 22:43:39
The similarity between last week's Republican rally outside the White House and the Triumphs of Nuremberg was no accident. A phalanx of flags with crests, rant against socialism, rant against the Enemy Within, orchestrated applause.... we've seen it all before.
There are differences, of course. The original Fuhrer had actually served his country in uniform and with some distinction, and turned to science to murder his countrymen, and Stalin gave political power to bad science, whereas this lazy ignorant coward just demolished the public health service and let nature take its course.
That may work with the wife from the looks of it, but what you are doing is terrorist spamming and rubbish Alanam i reading "its nuremberg all over again" incorrectly ?You may be reading it correctly, but not from any of my posts. Why not have a nice cup of tea, dear?
[/quote]
Interestingly, the word is not defined in UK statute law, so I guess he can use it any way he likes.And worse than hitler ?
IIRC a paid-up member of the Labour Party was prosecuted under the Terrorism Act (significantly, no longer the Prevention of Terrorism Act) for calling Jack Straw a liar during the party conference, so my pointing out that Donald Trump is a dangerous, halfwitted shadow of his political hero, certainly falls within that precedent.
Post by: alancalverd on 04/09/2020 23:21:01
It took Hitler 12 years to turn his country into bankrupt smoking rubble, so it's too early to judge Trump, but given Four More Years I'm sure he will make his mark in history. He certainly enjoys the public rallies and seems to have found a good set designer and speechwriter, but so far he's been a weak substitute for the real thing.
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/09/2020 01:34:21
And worse than hitler ?Again your failure to understand that proper nouns in English get capital letters makes it clear that you (rather than Alan) wrote that.
If you think Alan said that Trump is worse than Hitler, please quote the post where he said it.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 05/09/2020 02:20:06
It would be difficult to name a democratically elected president worse than Hitler, or a prime minister more effective than Churchill, but plenty of modern politicians study their methods, along with Machiavelli.But like hitler ?
It took Hitler 12 years to turn his country into bankrupt smoking rubble, so it's too early to judge Trump, but given Four More Years I'm sure he will make his mark in history. He certainly enjoys the public rallies and seems to have found a good set designer and speechwriter, but so far he's been a weak substitute for the real thing.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/09/2020 10:46:10
Hitler may not deserve a capital letter in English orthography, but one should at least respect the German convention. We are not barbarians, even if our cousins behave that way.
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/09/2020 10:56:54
Well, that's the bit where he makes it clear that Hitler's worse.It would be difficult to name a democratically elected president worse than Hitler,But like hitler ?
...
Did you think you had a point?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 05/09/2020 17:07:46
Time will tell whether his aspirations will be realised. His methods are indistinguishable, but a lot depends on the stupidity of the US electorate and whether he has bribed the electoral college sufficiently this time. Unlike G W Bush, he can't rely on his brother counting the votes.Yep, like hitler,
Hitler may not deserve a capital letter in English orthography, but one should at least respect the German convention. We are not barbarians, even if our cousins behave that way.
Post by: alancalverd on 05/09/2020 18:02:01
Who said "If you tell a big enough lie and tell it frequently enough, it will be believed."? Returning to the subject of this thread, who told his tribe that drinking disinfectant would save them from a Chinese biological warfare plot?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 21/01/2021 05:53:24
There is a nice peak 14 days after New year, maybe a general nationwide increace or the Christmas or new year frivolities.
The national lockdown on the 4th should have peaked around the 20th so it may get worse yet.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 06/07/2021 19:19:42
It's topped out in Brazil. I understand this is not the product of vaccines or social controls either. At the moment the mortality rate is at about 0.3%.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 08/07/2021 23:00:24
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Again not due to social control measures I believe, nor the vaccines if the rate in Britain is anything to go by. The mortality rate is lower at leastpartially because of vaccines.
Post by: alancalverd on 09/07/2021 11:15:01
COVID statistics are always out of date. If it takes 5 days to develop symptoms and another couple of days to report them, each data point is at least a week behind the actual infection, and it can take up to six months to die from it.
A low recent mortality rate can indicate several things. In an extended war the first soldiers to fight will be experienced professionals and the last ditch will be held by whoever can be bullied into holding a gun, so the fatality rate is likely to increase as the war reaches its conclusion. Possibly the inverse with an epidemic, particularly if your government sacrifices the elderly early on in the hope of preserving their portfolio values. Or you might have improved treatment to delay death beyond your arbitrary cutoff date. Or indeed have vaccinated enough people to prevent a few deaths. But unless you impose a strict quarantine and border controls, you won't alter the R rate or prevent new sources arriving.