Naked Science Forum

Life Sciences => Physiology & Medicine => COVID-19 => Topic started by: nudephil on 07/04/2020 17:48:37

Title: How to distinguish COVID-19 from winter flu in the stats?
Post by: nudephil on 07/04/2020 17:48:37
Here's a question from Peter:

Is anyone tracking the numbers on flu-like symptoms, winter flu and COVID-19? I am wondering if the death rate in the UK is distorted - is the new winter flu getting mixed up with COVID-19? Likewise for other countries?

Any thoughts?
Title: Re: How to distinguish COVID-19 from winter flu in the stats?
Post by: set fair on 09/04/2020 22:45:45
Flu is less contageous than covid-19. The steps to reduce the spread of covid-19 also reduce the spread of flu to the extent that deaths from seasonal flu are reduced or greatly reduced. These steps have probably reduced the r0 of flu to about or below 1. For example in Hong Kong this season's flu has been eliminated.
https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fc3ce14f2-5ead-11ea-8033-fa40a0d65a98?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=700

https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4
The effect of the coronavirus can be broadly and crudely measured in excess deaths over an average of other years. That figure woud include increased deaths due to hospitals not treating some other patients and reduced deaths from other communicle diseases such as flu.
Title: Re: How to distinguish COVID-19 from winter flu in the stats?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 10/04/2020 00:25:51

https://www.ft.com/content/ad7ae6b4-5eab-11ea-b0ab-339c2307bcd4
The effect of the coronavirus can be broadly and crudely measured in excess deaths over an average of other years. That figure woud include increased deaths due to hospitals not treating some other patients and reduced deaths from other communicle diseases such as flu.
I would not think that is wise, deaths from flu vary a great deal, they also seem to vary with the severity of the winter. Strokes and heart attacks are also down, claims of under reporting seem to be missing the lack of stess going on.

https://www.fox4now.com/news/coronavirus/fewer-reported-heart-attacks-patients-suffering-in-silence

Edit

Flu seems to be transmitted in a similar fashion..

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/disease/spread.htm