Post by: RD on 14/04/2020 13:40:07
ONS.png (75.89 kB . 1024x711 - viewed 5157 times)I can only think of school-holidays.
less road-traffic because of 0 school-runs => less road deaths ?.
Less transmission of infectious disease by children, (because not crowded in school) ?.
People snuffing-it on holiday in a different country, so not counted ?.
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/04/2020 13:47:27
I guess it's related to this
https://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2015/aug/04/black-wednesday-share-stories-day-junior-doctors-start-work
I'd also like to know why nobody dies at new year. There's also (I think) a drop at the end of the financial year.
The blue line for 2020 illustrates what the Tory government is calling a success.
Post by: RD on 14/04/2020 13:54:34
I'd also like to know why nobody dies at new year....A big drop, but not "nobody": the vertical scale starts at about 7000.
Possibly the dips are artefacts corresponding to when the coroners are on holiday,
with the stiffs spending extra time in the morgue until they are processed.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 14/04/2020 22:40:52
Also
Weekly all-cause mortality surveillance week 14 (2019) report
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/792751/Weekly_report_mortality_week_14_4_April_2019.pdf
Shows very different figures
Post by: RD on 14/04/2020 23:25:38
Quote from: Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS
“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020
Post by: Petrochemicals on 16/04/2020 02:05:28
Yep, thats 6000 more than mid march on average, and 2000 more than the 201718 flu. Lots less than the big freezes of 1945 and 1950. Less than the french heatwave. The only question is how far has the corona spread ?Quote from: Nick Stripe, head of health analysis and life events at the ONS“The 16,387 deaths that were registered in England and Wales during the week ending 3 April is the highest weekly total since we started compiling weekly deaths data in 2005.”https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020
Post by: alancalverd on 16/04/2020 04:21:17
This also explains the New Year dip, particularly as the registration period is 8 days in Scotland, where the whole country shuts down for Hogmanay. The Easter dip (BC's "financial year" dip) is broad and fuzzy, because the bank holiday is a variable feast and includes Friday. But I'm intrigued by the huge dip around 16 June 2019 - can anyone remember what happened?
Despite the Grauniad's claim that "research shows a 6% increase in patient death rates", "Black Wednesday", when junior doctors start their clinical postings, shows no significant fluctuation at the beginning of August. IIRC there's plenty of hilarity among the nurses as the newbies try to find the toilet and the cafeteria, but not a lot of serious errors, and elective surgery is at a minimum during school holidays. It may be true that 6% more patients die in August, but that is because there are fewer patients overall in hospital, so deaths of patients are not diluted by minor illnesses and surgical recovery, but overall deaths remain normal.
Post by: RD on 22/04/2020 00:25:30
Quote from: ons.gov.uk
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending10april2020
Of the deaths registered in Week 15, 6,213 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 33.6% of all deaths; this compares with 3,475 (21.2% of all deaths) in Week 14..
April-10.jpg (98.96 kB . 1200x844 - viewed 3974 times)NB: The vertical scale does start at zero on this graph, (unlike this one (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=79263.msg599992#msg599992)).
Post by: RD on 22/04/2020 01:12:08
London.jpg (58.77 kB . 1024x727 - viewed 4022 times)
Post by: Petrochemicals on 22/04/2020 05:18:21
The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in the week ending 10 April 2020 (Week 15) was 18,516; this represents an increase of 2,129 deaths registered compared with the previous week (Week 14), is 7,996 deaths more than the five-year average and is the highest weekly total since Week 1 in 2000.What the hell happened on the millenium them ? Was it the antichrist ? I may well start praying yet
Post by: RD on 22/04/2020 08:51:19
What the hell happened on the millenium them ? Was it the antichrist ? ...
I'm guessing 2000 was when they began recording deaths in this way: weekly rather than monthly,
rather than 2000 being apocalyptic.
Post by: alancalverd on 22/04/2020 15:45:29
London on its own is much worse: deaths are almost 3x normal ...
Any idiots who are not convinced to avoid close contact, should note what happens when you pack lots of people into buses and trains. Other cities have their rush hours but London is unique for the duration, density and radius of its human tide. You might find a similar effect in Birmingham but the tide is probably too small to detect the effect elsewhere.
Post by: RD on 29/04/2020 04:51:17
17th April 2020.jpg (61.64 kB . 1024x721 - viewed 3558 times)https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020
Post by: alancalverd on 29/04/2020 10:02:30
Quote
Of the deaths registered in Week 16, 8,758 mentioned “novel coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which is 39.2% of all deaths; this compares with 6,213 (33.6% of all deaths) in Week 15.
But I repeat my caution: registered cause of death is an opinion clouded by circumstance, fashion and politics. Death is a fact. The best estimate of the impact of a novel cause of death is the raw difference between this week's figure and that from a year ago. Using that equation and the current figures, the discrepancy between recorded and probable COVID deaths is about 30%.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/04/2020 16:00:55
Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined sinceThey are worried about the lack of medical admissions for heart attacks strokes etc. Cancer referals are also down to 20 percent of levels last year, i believe. I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levels, but without treatment a greater proportion will probably pass away in all things. They do say that when people stop there work and relax that they often sucuumb to a heart attack then.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending17april2020
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/04/2020 16:09:39
Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined sinceDid someone come back to life, or was their death reclassified?
Post by: alancalverd on 29/04/2020 16:33:36
I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levelsSadly, no. All elective surgery has stopped (to release intensive care facilities) and anything that can be treated by a general practitioner or nursed outside of a hospital, is, because hospital staff are reduced and overworked. Not that there's a great surplus of GPs and community nurses.....
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/04/2020 17:34:52
Elective surgery is not emergency is it ?!I think the lack of stress is probably playing its part in reducing levelsSadly, no. All elective surgery has stopped (to release intensive care facilities) and anything that can be treated by a general practitioner or nursed outside of a hospital, is, because hospital staff are reduced and overworked. Not that there's a great surplus of GPs and community nurses.....
Post by: RD on 29/04/2020 17:58:36
Officially COVID-19 deaths have declined sinceDid someone come back to life, or was their death reclassified?
That ONS graph is death from ALL causes up to 17th April (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=79263.msg601796#msg601796).
The data on deaths specifically from COVID-19 is more recent ...
UK peak COVID deaths ~16 April.png (125.59 kB . 700x500 - viewed 3342 times)
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/04/2020 18:05:26
That doesn't mean there are fewer dead people.
It means the number of dead people is still getting bigger- but more slowly.
The number of deaths has not declined.
Post by: RD on 29/04/2020 18:28:28
Elective surgery is not emergency is it ?!
Delayed elective-surgery, (e.g. heart-bypass), can still result in a premature death.
Delayed medical treatment could account for some of the excess deaths in people who were not diagnosed with COVID (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=79263.msg601816#msg601816).
Post by: Petrochemicals on 29/04/2020 21:50:51
I see.Elective surgery is not emergency is it ?!
Delayed elective-surgery, (e.g. heart-bypass), can still result in a premature death.
Delayed medical treatment could account for some of the excess deaths in people who were not diagnosed with COVID (https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=79263.msg601816#msg601816).
Post by: RD on 11/05/2020 03:28:23
ons gov uk.jpg (26.96 kB . 711x458 - viewed 2308 times)https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020
Post by: Bored chemist on 11/05/2020 17:30:14
UK peak excess/COVID daily-deaths ~16th April ...If I was a cartoonist I would now be sketching Boris saying "Hold my beer...".
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020
Post by: alancalverd on 12/05/2020 15:53:48
The number of deaths has not declined.I think that's some kind of tautology.
Post by: Petrochemicals on 13/05/2020 00:27:10
UK peak excess/COVID daily-deaths ~16th April ...Very dodgy graph there I must say, only 5 times the 'average' flu according to that.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending24april2020
Post by: Petrochemicals on 05/06/2020 22:00:53
Quote from: link
Typically, there are 25,000-30,000 British excess deaths each year, which is about 15% higher than the background rate - that is, the annualised daily average rate - at which people die
A rather unhelpful article from 2014.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-25680933
Post by: Petrochemicals on 30/06/2020 11:35:41
https://metro.co.uk/2020/06/30/no-excess-deaths-england-wales-first-time-since-lockdown-began-12921075/
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/06/2020 11:45:08
Corona saves lives
In the sense that, if you kill everybody this week, nobody dies next week.
Post by: alancalverd on 30/06/2020 13:11:50