Naked Science Forum

Life Sciences => Physiology & Medicine => COVID-19 => Topic started by: Colin2B on 06/06/2021 18:10:04

Title: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: Colin2B on 06/06/2021 18:10:04
So this doesn’t get lost

Now the reason why we need to be concerned about how those in power deal with covid distribution is pointed out in this BBC report. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-55795297

If we don't get those billions of doses out there then the unrestricted infections will lead to more, and maybe deadlier variants of covid. That affects all of us.

Why should rich countries delay getting these vaccines to the rest of the world?

It looks as though someone has woken Boris up to the fact that variants are a real threat to getting out of pandemic restrictions and he’s going to raise the problem at the forthcoming G7 Covid: PM to push for world vaccination by end of 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57373120 (http://Covid: PM to push for world vaccination by end of 2022 https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57373120)

How realistic is this?
Title: Re: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/06/2021 18:19:04
Once enough people in the UK are vaccinated, it would make sense, in terms of reducing the UK risk,  for "the next dose" to be given to some person in the developing world.

The question is how many is "enough".
The likelihood of Boris assessing that correctly is near zero- particularly given his past record.
For example, he has just announced that he will bring all the schoolkids' education back up to where it should be by spending about £1 per pupil per day.

Hopefully he will get some better advice at the G7 meeting.
Title: Re: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: CliffordK on 06/06/2021 19:05:37
I have been stunned that JAPAN has a mighty low vaccination rate.

One of the things we should have done from the start was to require international licensing of all "successful" vaccines.

I think the USA is finally getting to a point where production is greater than demand.  Not that we don't still need to get quite a few more people vaccinated, but they need to get motivated to just go in and get the vaccine.

There would be a number of benefits for us to send a large portion of the new production vaccines south to Mexico, Central America, and South America.

By July/August, there will be some pressure to start producing a multi-variant booster shot cocktail for the domestic market, but there would be benefits to knock the disease down (or knock it out) globally instead.

Could one make a plan to go from Global Pandemic to Global Eradication in 5 years?
Title: Re: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: evan_au on 06/06/2021 22:48:52
Quote from: CliffordK
JAPAN has a mighty low vaccination rate
Japan did quite well, early in the pandemic. That may have led to complacency.
- In Australia, government complacency was very obvious: We don't have much virus, so we can take our time gettng the vaccines approved, and getting aged care homes vaccinated, etc
- But with a susceptible population and relaxed restrictions, it just takes one of the more contagious variants to escape quarantine, and you have a severe outbreak.
- The current lockdown in the state of Victoria is due to one person who caught an Indian variant in a quarantine hotel.

Whether the 2020 Tokyo Olympics proceeds in 2021 is a guess at this stage
- All competitors would need to be vaccinated (and wait a few weeks for the vaccine to become fully effective)
- The Tokyo population seems against the games proceeding
- Olympics in an empty stadium, anyone?
Title: Re: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: alancalverd on 07/06/2021 22:36:13
- Olympics in an empty stadium, anyone?
Why not? We've seen plenty of football, rugby and cricket played to the TV audience. A TV-based competition could make sailing a spectator sport, and bring back gliding (intended for the 1940 Olympics but some stupid war got in the way) where most of the action takes place 5000 feet up and 100 miles away from the finish line.
Title: Re: How quickly can we get enough of world population vaccinated?
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/06/2021 22:56:26
For most Olympic events, only a vanishingly small fraction of the audience is in the stadium.