Naked Science Forum

General Science => General Science => Topic started by: realmswalker on 29/04/2005 00:11:53

Title: Great oil crash
Post by: realmswalker on 29/04/2005 00:11:53
I did some research and it is believed that at about 2025 oil production will peak, shortly after that it will begin to fall and cause immidieate sky rocketing of oil prices (estimates put it that the cost per barrel could go up as high as 200$ per barrel a year after hitting the peak)
This would immidieatly screw up the world economy.
Im not sure when oil will totally run out but costs like that will tear down our society or at least throw it into upheavel.
What possible things can we do here???
Reneweable sources arent nearly potent enough to make up for the loss of  oil power.
Perhaps if we haul ass we can figure out a fusion reactor (i have seen estimates that japan will have a fusion powerd city by 2050 soo hopefully they hurry their arses up)
Maybe we will biogeneticly engineer/create an organism which takes in co2 and water to produce oil via energy by sunlight (sort of a different version  of photosynthesis perhaps)
any one got anythoughts on this?

Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: daveshorts on 29/04/2005 00:33:53
quote:
Maybe we will biogeneticly engineer/create an organism which takes in co2 and water to produce oil via energy by sunlight (sort of a different version of photosynthesis perhaps)


Is called sugar cane and some yeast innit?

On a more serious note:

Yep oil is going to get a lot more expensive in the future, hopefully slow enough to let the economy adjust. In some ways the european economy is already adjusted to this, as fuel costs in the uk are about 2/3 tax, so the price of oil could probably go up to above $100 a barrel without too much of a problem (except to farmers and the airline industry).

If I were the US government I would be gently increasing the tax on fuel so the economy adjusts over a decade, not in a few months...
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: akuba on 30/04/2005 05:17:07
Yea gas prices here in the U.S. are crazy.  Seems like just the other day it was a $1.69 and now its like $2.40 a gallon.  I don't think is going to go down under 2 again, which really sucks for me considering I turn 16 in one month and get my driver's license.
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: psikeyhackr on 30/04/2005 07:06:20
Rosen Motors was working on a car using a gas turbogenerator to produce electricity for motors in the wheels.  A flywheel in a vacuum would store electricity produced from electromagnetic braking.  The automobile industry wasn't interested.

http://www.findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m3165/is_n12_v33/ai_20114849
http://www.technologyreview.com/articles/01/05/fairley0501.asp?p=0
http://www.itweek.co.uk/analysis/89441



Kill an economist for Karl
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: sharkeyandgeorge on 01/05/2005 12:36:53
I agree that the only current technology that can at least partly replace fossil fuels is nuclear power, enviromently friendly tech like wind farms in no where nears as efficent as is needed. i would suggest a return to nuclear power this would at least be a good stopgap method to help us wean off oil and give us time to make renewable power a real alternative. also nuclear power produces no co2 making it a sound ecological choice

Interesting, no the other thing... tedious.
The philosopher Bender
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: daveshorts on 01/05/2005 12:49:58
quote:
Yea gas prices here in the U.S. are crazy. Seems like just the other day it was a $1.69 and now its like $2.40 a gallon. I don't think is going to go down under 2 again, which really sucks for me considering I turn 16 in one month and get my driver's license.

Shock Horror - here in the uk it is over 80p a litre or about $6 a US gallon and we cope, mainly by having sensible sized vehicles.
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: gsmollin on 02/05/2005 13:11:26
There is no question that US drivers could have demanded fuel efficient autos, and forestalled the kinds of energy crises we now see looming. US lawmakers have never had a decent energy policy that encouraged conservation or alternate energy sources. Fusion reactor advances and a hydrogen-fueled economy will probably come from foreign countries because the US is so fixated on big oil.

However- the US is a much larger country than UK, and larger than all of Europe. There will always be more demand for energy, whatever its form, because of the extent of the country.

I find it ironic that the country with the largest energy demand has no plan for the future.
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: daveshorts on 02/05/2005 14:08:30
You are right the size of the US does mean that you need to use a bit more energy, but I think the bigger problem is that the whole country is designed for cheap fuel - eg I visited Houston, and even in the centre of town the only people who were walking about were the police, tramps, road cleaners and us weird european conference delegates. I assume all the locals were just driving into the air conditioned parking lots of the shopping Malls and never actually going out on the streets. The reaction of the receptionist at the hotel when we said we wanted to walk to a restaurant was hilarious.
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: chimera on 02/05/2005 15:17:37
quote:
Originally posted by daveshorts

You are right the size of the US does mean that you need to use a bit more energy



A bit more? In 1998 the US alone was good for 25,32% of global energy use, about as much as the next 4 largest users just behind it (China, Russia, Japan, Germany) combined. About 84 percent of that was fossil-based.

http://atlas.aaas.org/index.php?part=2&sec=natres&sub=energy
Title: Re: Great oil crash
Post by: VAlibrarian on 30/08/2005 04:20:44
This is a critical issue that the U.S. government has indeed ignored for the past 20 years. Oil demand is indeed rising- in the U.S.A. but also very markedly in China, which would like to catch up to our standard of living. Does that worry you? There are over a billion people in China. If they ever reach the standard of living of the USA, it is hard to see that our planet has the resources to handle it.

Yes gasoline prices will rise, despite the efforts of oil companies to cash in on the demand by drilling deeper. At what price would you change your behavior? Would $6 per gallon convince you to skip that trip to the hardware store until Saturday when you can buy groceries nearby? Would $10 per gallon convince you to seek a carpool, or perhaps even move to a house or apartment closer to your workplace? Would you eventually be willing to trade in your gasoline car for a hydrogen car? what if you are unsatisfied by the safety, speed, convenience, price, or ugliness of the hydrogen car- will you drive it anyway? What if your government tells you that you have to drive the hydrogen car or walk, because gasoline is too expensive for them to allow you to use for transportation? These questions may become real in a couple decades. If we work the problem, they are less likely- if we ignore the problem, they are more likely.

chris wiegard