# Naked Science Forum

## On the Lighter Side => New Theories => Topic started by: the5thforce on 10/03/2017 20:26:04

Title: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: the5thforce on 10/03/2017 20:26:04
Ive been playing online poker for 8 years with over 3 million hands of experience, I want to share some game theory concepts i’ve developed after countless hours reviewing my 'pokertracker' database, pokertracker is a hand statistics HUD(heads up display) which you need to use where allowed to have any chance of winning

bankroll management:
-between 25 buyins and 100 buyins is considered good bankroll management, i recommend 100 buyins minimum, roughly 10-15 buyin variance swings should be expected at all times

NLHE preflop:

-first i’ll start with the concept of table equity which i find to be a useful starting ‘VPIP’ to aim for, table equity being: 100% divided by the number of players at the table representing your share of mathematically 'winning equity’, for example at 6max your table equity would be 16.67% so you would want to be playing the top 16.67% of hands which for me is something like 22+A2s+ATo+KJo+KTs+QTs+JTs+, 9max would be the top 11.1%, keep in mind the only incentive to play more than AA preflop is because of the blinds which should put in perspective how small the edge is in poker

-after youre familiar with table equity, you’ll want to know that mathematically you can steal in late position and defend the big blind(less so in the small blind) up to double table equity (example: 33.3% at 6max, something like 22+AT+KT+A2s-T2s+96s-76s+), if you fold in bb you’ll lose 100bb/100 hands and 50bb/100 in sb, but keep in mind this isnt always appropriate as you often wont get enough respect to justify stealing/defending vs certain opponents, in that case just stick with table equity VPIP

-when it comes to 3betting i’d suggest you stick with 3betting for value (TT+AQ+) up to half table equity, or to make things easier only 3bet when you have a near sure-thing such as AA/KK

NLHE postflop:

-postflop mistakes you should avoid include overvaluing flush draws/OESD’s (play strictly for pot odds), overvaluing top pairs including TPTK, and overvaluing overpairs which are hands you actually want to fold surprisingly often when your opponent reraises you even if it seems very difficult, you need to understand that most of your winnings will come from having the sure-thing nuts OR outright bluffing your opponent off their hand via barreling

-what i do to get opponents to fold is what i call “cbarrel” vs 1 caller postflop, that means i’ll cbet the flop about 2/3 pot size which needs to work 39% or more to profit, then cbet the turn ½-2/3 pot size which needs to work 33-39% to profit, and again cbet the river ½-2/3 pot size which usually gets them to fold enough to be profitable even if they didnt fold the turn, cbetting/cbarrelling should be done roughly 50-60% depending on the opponent and the board texture, the wetter the board the more likely your opponent has a piece of it

-if you notice you arent getting very many folds/respect you can adjust by tightening up preflop or experiment with barreling less. i also like to occasionally reraise my opponent on the flop around 2x - 2.5x the size of their cbet in a sense “cbetting their cbet” in an attempt to bluff or 'balance my range'

-if it helps try to imagine that the cards dont matter, youre only trying get your opponent to fold, otherwise you only want to showdown close to a sure-thing. realize that in a vacuum if you were all playing similar hand ranges preflop the most aggressive player postflop would usually come out on top

-keep in mind your profit with each hand will exponentially lean towards the best starting hand which is AA followed by KK, the top 50% of preflop hands have many times more equity postflop than the bottom 50%, always play tighter when in doubt

-the sooner you familiarize yourself with the range of hands your opponent may have in any situation the sooner youll be able to narrow down your decisions accurately, you should tend to give every opponent the benefit of doubt until given reason to believe otherwise and you should tend to pot control all but the nuts vs tight opponents, tight opponents tend to play tight both preflop and postflop

-the longer you take to make a decision the longer you give your opponent to make a decision so time is always a factor, i strongly recommend learning to beat the game playing only one table before attempting to multitable

-the most important piece of advice is to always target looser/weaker opponents which are usually those with a vpip above double table equity who you can loosen up against to roughly 40-50% of their preflop range, if there are no weaker opponents you need to leave the table immediately or you will be raked to the end of your bankroll

-some believe the RNG is skewed for action to increase rake, playing tighter would be the only way to adapt

Poker is intended to be entertainment with just enough complexity that you can never play perfectly, eventually youll find what i call the 'numerology' and psychology of the game closely reflects many aspects of life and im hoping to see the game legalized worldwide which will open the door to a larger skill-game/"mental sport" economy as an alternative to the female dominated service economy
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: zx16 on 10/03/2017 20:29:34
A very interesting post.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 20:58:03
Ive been playing online poker for 8 years with over 3 million hands of experience, I want to share some game theory concepts i’ve developed after countless hours reviewing my 'pokertracker' database, pokertracker is a hand statistics HUD(heads up display) which you need to use where allowed to have any chance of winning

bankroll management:
-between 25 buyins and 100 buyins is considered good bankroll management, i recommend 100 buyins minimum, roughly 10-15 buyin variance swings should be expected at all times

NLHE preflop:

-first i’ll start with the concept of table equity which i find to be a useful starting ‘VPIP’ to aim for, table equity being: 100% divided by the number of players at the table representing your share of mathematically 'winning equity’, for example at 6max your table equity would be 16.67% so you would want to be playing the top 16.67% of hands which for me is something like 22+A2s+ATo+KJo+KTs+QTs+JTs+, 9max would be the top 11.1%, keep in mind the only incentive to play more than AA preflop is because of the blinds which should put in perspective how small the edge is in poker

-after youre familiar with table equity, you’ll want to know that mathematically you can steal in late position and defend the big blind(less so in the small blind) up to double table equity (example: 33.3% at 6max, something like 22+AT+KT+A2s-T2s+96s-76s+), if you fold in bb you’ll lose 100bb/100 hands and 50bb/100 in sb - fyi, but keep in mind this isnt always appropriate as you often wont get enough respect to justify stealing/defending vs certain opponents, in that case just stick with table equity VPIP

-when it comes to 3betting i’d suggest sticking with 3betting for value (TT+AQ+) up to half table equity, or to make things easier only 3bet when you have a near sure-thing such as AA/KK

NLHE postflop:

-postflop mistakes you should avoid include overvaluing flush draws/OESD’s (play strictly for pot odds), overvaluing top pairs including TPTK, and overvaluing overpairs which are hands you actually want to fold surprisingly often when your opponent reraises you even if it seems very difficult, you need to understand that most of your winnings will come from having the sure-thing nuts OR outright bluffing your opponent off their hand via barreling

-what i do to get opponents to fold is what i call “cbarrel” vs 1 caller postflop, that means i’ll cbet the flop about 2/3 pot size which needs to work 39% or more to profit, then cbet the turn ½-2/3 pot size which needs to work 33-39% to profit, and again cbet the river ½-2/3 pot size which usually gets them to fold enough to be profitable even if they didnt fold the turn, cbetting/cbarrelling should be done roughly 50-60% depending on the opponent and the board texture, the wetter the board the more likely your opponent has a piece of it

-if you notice you arent getting very many folds/respect you can adjust by tightening up preflop or experiment with barreling less. i also like to occasionally reraise my opponent on the flop around 2x - 2.5x the size of their cbet in a sense “cbetting their cbet” in an attempt to bluff or 'balance my range'

-if it helps try to imagine that the cards dont matter, youre only trying get your opponent to fold, otherwise you only want to showdown close to a sure-thing. realize that in a vacuum if you were all playing similar hand ranges preflop the most aggressive player postflop would usually come out on top

-keep in mind your profit with each hand will exponentially lean towards the best starting hand which is AA followed by KK, the top 50% of preflop hands have many times more equity postflop than the bottom 50%, always play tighter when in doubt

-the sooner you familiarize yourself with the range of hands your opponent may have in any situation the sooner youll be able to narrow down your decisions accurately, you should tend to give every opponent the benefit of doubt until given reason to believe otherwise and you should tend to pot control all but the nuts vs tight opponents, tight opponents tend to play tight both preflop and postflop

-the longer you take to make a decision the longer you give your opponent to make a decision so time is always a factor, i strongly recommend learning to beat the game playing only one table before attempting to multitable

-the most important piece of advice is to always target looser/weaker opponents which are usually those with a vpip above double table equity who you can loosen up against to roughly 40-50% of their preflop range, if there are no weaker opponents you need to leave the table immediately or you will be raked to the end of your bankroll

Poker is intended to be entertainment with just enough complexity that you can never play perfectly, eventually youll find what i call the 'numerology' and psychology of the game closely reflects many aspects of life and im hoping to see the game legalized worldwide which will open the door to a larger skill-game/"mental sport" economy as an alternative to the female dominated service economy
A subject I will claim to be an expert in, not only has a player but in  poker theory also.  I have people here at the moment so will read your post later with more attention and reply with an appropriate post.

Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 21:08:11
Ive been playing online poker for 8 years with over 3 million hands of experience, I want to share some game theory concepts i’ve developed after countless hours reviewing my 'pokertracker' database, pokertracker is a hand statistics HUD(heads up display) which you need to use where allowed to have any chance of winning

OK , I will start here, did you know that your online HUD is not ''telling'' you the truth and gives a player false reads information about players?

The reason this happens is because of the distribution system and the XYZ matrix making each and every hand you are dealt independent making probability statistics void.

Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 21:16:01
Quote
bankroll management:
-between 25 buyins and 100 buyins is considered good bankroll management, i recommend 100 buyins minimum, roughly 10-15 buyin variance swings should be expected at all times

Do not believe this Dogma, this is a ''trick'' poker companies use to have your money in their bank accounts to give them your interest , Leave your BR in your own bank and only deposit minimum per game(S).

Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 21:22:32
Quote
NLHE preflop:

-first i’ll start with the concept of table equity which i find to be a useful starting ‘VPIP’ to aim for, table equity being: 100% divided by the number of players at the table representing your share of mathematically 'winning equity’, for example at 6max your table equity would be 16.67% so you would want to be playing the top 16.67% of hands which for me is something like 22+A2s+ATo+KJo+KTs+QTs+JTs+, 9max would be the top 11.1%, keep in mind the only incentive to play more than AA preflop is because of the blinds which should put in perspective how small the edge is in poker

-after youre familiar with table equity, you’ll want to know that mathematically you can steal in late position and defend the big blind(less so in the small blind) up to double table equity (example: 33.3% at 6max, something like 22+AT+KT+A2s-T2s+96s-76s+), if you fold in bb you’ll lose 100bb/100 hands and 50bb/100 in sb, but keep in mind this isnt always appropriate as you often wont get enough respect to justify stealing/defending vs certain opponents, in that case just stick with table equity VPIP

-when it comes to 3betting i’d suggest you stick with 3betting for value (TT+AQ+) up to half table equity, or to make things easier only 3bet when you have a near sure-thing such as AA/KK

NLHE postflop:

-postflop mistakes you should avoid include overvaluing flush draws/OESD’s (play strictly for pot odds), overvaluing top pairs including TPTK, and overvaluing overpairs which are hands you actually want to fold surprisingly often when your opponent reraises you even if it seems very difficult, you need to understand that most of your winnings will come from having the sure-thing nuts OR outright bluffing your opponent off their hand via barreling

-what i do to get opponents to fold is what i call “cbarrel” vs 1 caller postflop, that means i’ll cbet the flop about 2/3 pot size which needs to work 39% or more to profit, then cbet the turn ½-2/3 pot size which needs to work 33-39% to profit, and again cbet the river ½-2/3 pot size which usually gets them to fold enough to be profitable even if they didnt fold the turn, cbetting/cbarrelling should be done roughly 50-60% depending on the opponent and the board texture, the wetter the board the more likely your opponent has a piece of it

-if you notice you arent getting very many folds/respect you can adjust by tightening up preflop or experiment with barreling less. i also like to occasionally reraise my opponent on the flop around 2x - 2.5x the size of their cbet in a sense “cbetting their cbet” in an attempt to bluff or 'balance my range'

-if it helps try to imagine that the cards dont matter, youre only trying get your opponent to fold, otherwise you only want to showdown close to a sure-thing. realize that in a vacuum if you were all playing similar hand ranges preflop the most aggressive player postflop would usually come out on top

-keep in mind your profit with each hand will exponentially lean towards the best starting hand which is AA followed by KK, the top 50% of preflop hands have many times more equity postflop than the bottom 50%, always play tighter when in doubt

-the sooner you familiarize yourself with the range of hands your opponent may have in any situation the sooner youll be able to narrow down your decisions accurately, you should tend to give every opponent the benefit of doubt until given reason to believe otherwise and you should tend to pot control all but the nuts vs tight opponents, tight opponents tend to play tight both preflop and postflop

-the longer you take to make a decision the longer you give your opponent to make a decision so time is always a factor, i strongly recommend learning to beat the game playing only one table before attempting to multitable

-the most important piece of advice is to always target looser/weaker opponents which are usually those with a vpip above double table equity who you can loosen up against to roughly 40-50% of their preflop range, if there are no weaker opponents you need to leave the table immediately or you will be raked to the end of your bankroll

Poker is intended to be entertainment with just enough complexity that you can never play perfectly, eventually youll find what i call the 'numerology' and psychology of the game closely reflects many aspects of life and im hoping to see the game legalized worldwide which will open the door to a larger skill-game/"mental sport" economy as an alternative to the female dominated service economy

I appreciate your efforts, but live poker is a game of skill, online poker is outright gambling and any strategies of trying to play are not valued because online poker is comparable to roulette and -EV  .

The reason for this is that online poker is simply not the same game as live poker, no burn cards and a xyz matrix distribution system.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 21:30:33
See attached graph, for several year I have being ''playing'' with variance to understand ''her''. Understand that variance is only above or below the flat-line of infinite.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 10/03/2017 21:39:55
And here is the XYZ online matrix.  Z is any random table.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: zx16 on 11/03/2017 18:53:19
Poker seems like a game where the players are given cards which have been shuffled and distributed at random.

So if each player picks up a set of random cards, where does the skill come into it?  I mean, what is the "skill" that makes a good poker player better than a bad one?
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: Bored chemist on 11/03/2017 20:49:26
Interesting, according to this
a hand of poker might take as much as 5 minutes.
Let's guess that you have it down to a tenth of that- a hand in 30 seconds.
You say you have played 3 million hands
1.5 million minutes
25000 hours
Or, playing 8 hrs a day, 3125   days or a little over 8 years
Yet you say you have been playing for 8 years.
Have you been doing anything else?
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: zx16 on 11/03/2017 21:18:11
Thanks BC, I read the link you very kindly provided.  It shows, possibly, that poker is not just about mathematical odds.  Anyone can work out the odds of drawing another King, say, when you already have 3 Kings in your hand and there are 4 other players.

That's just basic maths.  Does the skill come from watching the other players, and seeing how they react to their cards, I mean like do they perspire when they've got a good hand, or show an unusual and obviously calculated indifference, or whatever.

That's why I don't really care much for poker. It relies too much on the human element.  Which is fine if you like humans.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 12/03/2017 12:16:17
Poker seems like a game where the players are given cards which have been shuffled and distributed at random.

So if each player picks up a set of random cards, where does the skill come into it?  I mean, what is the "skill" that makes a good poker player better than a bad one?

The skill is in the read of an opponent.
Title: Re: Is poker a skill game?
Post by: guest39538 on 12/03/2017 12:18:52
Interesting, according to this
a hand of poker might take as much as 5 minutes.
Let's guess that you have it down to a tenth of that- a hand in 30 seconds.
You say you have played 3 million hands
1.5 million minutes
25000 hours
Or, playing 8 hrs a day, 3125   days or a little over 8 years
Yet you say you have been playing for 8 years.
Have you been doing anything else?

Internet poker is a faster pace than a live game, more hands per hour because the automated system can do it  much faster than a human.