Naked Science Forum

Life Sciences => The Environment => Topic started by: jeffreyH on 29/04/2017 10:23:26

Title: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 29/04/2017 10:23:26
Cloud condensation nuclei promote water vapour into cloud droplets. Since water vapour is the most effective greenhouse gas it may be a useful discussion topic. I have posted a link below to a description of CCN's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei
Title: Re: What role do CCN's play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 29/04/2017 11:01:27
And for your perusal here are the dissenters in the field.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming
Title: Re: What role do CCN's play in climate change?
Post by: puppypower on 29/04/2017 11:55:18
Cloud condensation nuclei promote water vapour into cloud droplets. Since water vapour is the most effective greenhouse gas it may be a useful discussion topic. I have posted a link below to a description of CCN's.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_condensation_nuclei

Water absorbs strongly in the IR and its concentration in the atmosphere is much higher than all the other greenhouse gases, combined. Water is the main player. If we use CCN's to condense water vapor in clouds, the water still absorbs IR, but for a shorter time, since rain is heavier and will fall from the atmosphere. This can be modeled with the concept of dwell time. The excess aerosols, will reflect sunlight back to space and therefore have a cooling affect. A few decades ago global cooling was the rage due to aerosols and smoke from factory and auto emissions. There were deniers back then too.

And for your perusal here are the dissenters in the field.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming


Man made global warming is unprecedented in the history of the earth. There is no other time, on record, where man made, has impacted the global temperature. It is sort of like a one of a kind, prototype. In terms of data, this partial cycle, which still has not done the flood thingie, if true, would be the only data point of this particular global trigger  in the history of the earth. The problem with one data point is you can draw any curve you like through a single data point, and make it touch. 

As an example, I took a single data point from a curve I found on the net; google images. You can try this at home and school with your own curve. From that one point in parenthesize ( . )  draw the curve I saw! If gave you two points , you could at least get the angle right.

On the other hand, if we used politics, propaganda and intimidation to promote a random curve, that touches the one data point, you might be able to form a consensus, especially if you can convince everyone I am a denier, and the real curve I saw was fake. 

Show me another area in science where one point, that bucks a trend composed of many data points; natural change, means a done deal. Isn't one data point, out of place, in terms of a multipoint trend, usually modeled as margin of error? Why did science depart from its normal data handling procedure?

The term denier is an insult intended to dig a hole for the other guy, so he appears to sink lower, so the other person can create the illusion of rising above, without actually having to get taller. Where else science is this part of the science procedure? The answer is wherever there is politics.

   
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/04/2017 19:21:10
And for your perusal here are the dissenters in the field.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

That list has about 80 names
There are about 7 million scientists in the world.
I trust you will forgive me for not providing a list of those who have not published work disagreeing with the scientific explanation of global warming.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/04/2017 19:35:05
It is sort of like a one of a kind, prototype. In terms of data, this partial cycle, which still has not done the flood thingie, if true, would be the only data point of this particular global trigger  in the history of the earth. The problem with one data point is you can draw any curve you like through a single data point, and make it touch. 

As an example, I took a single data point from a curve I found on the net; google images. You can try this at home and school with your own curve. From that one point in parenthesize ( . )  draw the curve I saw! If gave you two points , you could at least get the angle right.

I have a feeling that you tried to use this "argument" before.
Whatever-  it's a straw man.
It's not a random curve.
It is based on real things like the intensity of sunlight at the earth's surface.
So it's not "random" as you try to pretend.
So, what you are describing isn't real.


That's a straw man- and you should know better.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 29/04/2017 21:29:07
And for your perusal here are the dissenters in the field.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

That list has about 80 names
There are about 7 million scientists in the world.
I trust you will forgive me for not providing a list of those who have not published work disagreeing with the scientific explanation of global warming.


I am agnostic on this point. It was posted to show there are other viewpoints.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 29/04/2017 21:36:09
And for your perusal here are the dissenters in the field.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_scientists_opposing_the_mainstream_scientific_assessment_of_global_warming

That list has about 80 names
There are about 7 million scientists in the world.
I trust you will forgive me for not providing a list of those who have not published work disagreeing with the scientific explanation of global warming.


I am agnostic on this point. It was posted to show there are other viewpoints.
It's like being agnostic about the existence of rain.
So I pointed out the extent to which that viewpoint is a minority  one.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 30/04/2017 00:55:36
No it's like being agnostic about whether or not scientists are pro or anti our involvement in climate change. It's happening either way.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: evan_au on 30/04/2017 07:17:21
Quote from: puppypower
The problem with one data point is you can draw any curve you like through a single data point, and make it touch.
The "hockey stick curve" popularized by Al Gore is not drawing a curve through a single point.
It is tracking a trend with detailed measurements over the past 2,000 years, and drawing a trendline through the inevitable lumps and bumps that you get when measuring something like the climate whichhas many chaotic disturbers.

Some of these lumps have now been resolved, like the apparent temporary change in sea temperatures during WW2, which was eventually traced to a difference in methodology for measuring sea temperatures between British and US navies.

One of the keys of quality science is the ability to predict the future. The IPCC makes periodic predictions based on the latest models, and the actual climate has shown good agreement with the upper end of the predictions based on human contributions.

IPCC makes predictions. Puppypower, please post your predictions here, leaving out the human contributions, and we will see how well it predicts the future.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hockey_stick_graph
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/04/2017 09:46:06
No it's like being agnostic about whether or not scientists are pro or anti our involvement in climate change. It's happening either way.
Since scientists are actually quite good at evaluating data, you wouldn't expect them to be anti (belief in rain).
In the same way you wouldn't expect them to be anti (belief in anthropogenic global warming)

Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 30/04/2017 11:05:02
Why are you labouring this point? It is not the main point of the thread.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/04/2017 11:55:22
Why are you labouring this point? It is not the main point of the thread.
Dear Pot,
thanks for your comments,
sincerely
Kettle
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: puppypower on 30/04/2017 13:09:17
Why are you labouring this point? It is not the main point of the thread.

The initial point of the thread was about cloud seeding to lower the greenhouse impact of water. But the second post brought up the politics of the denier label, used to silence the opposition, via a social stigmatism. It is like calling someone a Communist during Cold War Years, so they will be avoided out of fear of being accused of collaboration by the fascists self servers. The political side of climate change allows the layman to participate in the discussion with the masses ultimately influencing budgeting through their representatives. Science is not self sufficient in terms of resources but need to promote need.

In physics, there is the standard model and there is also String theory, each of which is different, yet one is not calling other the denier. Rather both are allowed to exist side by side, with everyone able to freely choose which they prefer to study, without being labelled a leper. This is science at its best. There is something very different going on with climate change, that is not science.  It sounds more like high school social politics.

One thing that is different about climate change is the politics of fear. The standard model and String theory may both up-sell to compete for limited resources, but neither uses fear and name calling for added leverage to the sales pitch.  Fear can add leverage, even if not based on conclusive science.

As an analogous example, the fear of terrorism has led to the creation of a huge bureaucracy, designed to predict and proactively appease this fear. If you compare the number of deaths due to terrorism, to other things like falling in the shower, gang violence, or auto accidents, it seems like overkill in terms of the resources spent per unit of benefit; per life saved. However, because the drum beat of fear, connected to terrorism, is the loudest of all, less can appear to mean more. There a magic multiplier, not based on science and facts, but drum beat.

If you try to neutralize the fear, to help people gain  proper proportions, you are called a denier of sorts, who supports terrorism, instead of labelled as someone who is hoping to achieve objective proportions. Fear is helping to drive the politics behind climate change. Only one side is working to make us all safer, from the fear of doom that the same side is predicting.

If you look at American colleges, the young people are no longer open minded and willing to discuss controversial topics, but have been trained to demonstrate against free speech, so there is only one side of the argument is allowed on campuses. This is all connected and driven by fear. The denier label is there to silence anything that does not enhance the fear, since the fear is needed as a tool to leverage resources, until you can create a self standing bureaucracy, this is too big to fail, which can then be used to take away rights such as free speech and objective science.

The left has given away part of its hand, in terms of how the media is dealing with president Trump. Although what the left leaning media presents, may have supporting facts, it tends to promote only the negative side instead of reflecting proper reality proportions, which includes the good. 

As an example, If I presented you in terms of the low points of your life; your life's bloopers, but present none of your achievements, this will still be based on valid data and facts, but it will not create a clear picture of you, since you are both things. The one sided facts, will turn you into a 1-D cartoon character that is easier to memorize and recite instead of discuss.

 You can do the same thing with global warming and climate change. You can present facts to support one side needed to attract resources, but not all the facts, creating the illusions of a 1-D done deal. The left appears very vulnerable to 1-D thinking. This is why the discussions always go back to one sided politics on both sides.







Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/04/2017 14:08:45
"But the second post brought up the politics of the denier label,"
It's not a "label" as such- it is a description.
If, the phrase "climate change denier" has taken on some "evil" meaning, perhaps that is because of the company it keeps.
Maybe, if it wasn't for the fact that many of them seem allied to the sort of propagandist  nepotistic purposes that the Communists went in for, the  description wouldn't have those connotations.
Those communist governments were, after all, deniers of science.
They denied evolution- and gave their people the disaster that was lysenkoism.
And they denied global warming.
And they still seek to deny it.
http://www.france24.com/en/20170331-russian-president-vladimir-putin-says-humans-not-responsible-climate-change

And on the other side of the pond, the Republican party is so scared of the truth that they have practically banned  their scientists from working on it.
The republicans- perpetually funded by big oil and its customers, have a very clear reason to deny it.
Perhaps the reason that the word "denier" has such negative connotations is simply  that it's used to describe a bunch of nasty people.

"Science is not self sufficient in terms of resources but need to promote need. "
Silly.
There was need before there was science.
"One thing that is different about climate change is the politics of fear. The standard model and String theory may both up-sell to compete for limited resources, but neither uses fear and name calling for added leverage to the sales pitch.  Fear can add leverage, even if not based on conclusive science.
"
LOL
What "fear" could they play on?
Anyway, the "two sides" there don't really disagree.
The standard model says there are particles. Nobody disagrees
The String Theory says that, maybe, those particles are vibrations in a string.
Well, whether they are  or not, the particles are still there.
So it's another of your straw men (and I note you haven't  replied to my post asking you why you posted the last one).

Mind you, it's good to see we agree about something.
"As an analogous example, the fear of terrorism has led to the creation of a huge bureaucracy, designed to predict and proactively appease this fear. If you compare the number of deaths due to terrorism, to other things like falling in the shower, gang violence, or auto accidents, it seems like overkill in terms of the resources spent per unit of benefit; per life saved. However, because the drum beat of fear, connected to terrorism, is the loudest of all, less can appear to mean more. There a magic multiplier, not based on science and facts, but drum beat. "
Yes, terrorism is being blown out of all proportion by governments who want to use fear to control people.
Have you noticed that it's the Right wing of politics that's specialising in this, while the Left point out that, perhaps, it would be better not to provoke the attacks in the first place?

So, it's the ones who promote  rule by fear who are the ones who deny AGW.
As you say "If you try to neutralize the fear, to help people gain  proper proportions, you are called a denier of sorts, who supports terrorism, instead of labelled as someone who is hoping to achieve objective proportions. "

It's Bush who declares a "war on terror" and it's Bush who denies the existence of AGW.
Interesting, isn't it?
It's the same with the "war on drugs", by the way.
As far as I know, the "war on immigrants" hasn't been declared yet- but I propose a testable prediction; if/ when it is, declared, it will be by a Right wing politician.

All of these things-
the reasonable concerns of those who see US intervention in other countries as a threat
The choice of some people to take drugs
The decision by some people to try to better themselves by moving to a different country-
are not really threats to  others.
Yet the Right wing portrays them as such. They claim these people are a great evil.

So the Right has no qualms about using fear to gain political advantage.
Yet they don't do it with AGW.

Why not?
Well, because it's not in their financial interests- adn that's all they care about.
So, what do they do?
well they spread the lie that the environmentalist lobby is in the same leagues as the drug users and terrorists.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/jan/30/green-movement-greatest-threat-freedom-says-trump-adviser-myron-ebell

Now that's not just picking a label that might have political connotations; that's outright lying.

So, why are you not grumbling about it?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 30/04/2017 19:19:00
@puppypower The thread is NOT about cloud seeding to mitigate climate change. Don't put words into my mouth that are not there. Have you actually read the first wikipedia link I posted or have you just jumped to conclusions?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 30/04/2017 19:20:25
Why are you labouring this point? It is not the main point of the thread.
Dear Pot,
thanks for your comments,
sincerely
Kettle

Well let's just leave this one to posterity.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: alancalverd on 30/04/2017 21:38:59

The "hockey stick curve" popularized by Al Gore is not drawing a curve through a single point.
It is tracking a trend with detailed measurements over the past 2,000 years,

If only..... We have no credible and consistent measurements prior to 1864, when the Stevenson Screen was invented. From 1864 to 1975 we only had measurements of surface air temperature from inhabited and "civilised" places on the solid 25% surface of the globe, and most of these changed character significantly between 1930 and 1970. Nobody had visited the poles until the 1900s, let alone made any longterm measurements there. Satellite data has been "adjusted" several times, remarkably always in the "warmist" direction. And there still seems to be no consensus as to exactly what the curve claims to represent, at least as far as this forum knows.

What we do know of the last 2000 years is that Europe has been a lot hotter and a lot colder that it is now, and Canadian glaciers were a lot smaller 500 years ago. I'm sure there are good Indian and Chinese sources of recorded history too, but human activity is profoundly affected by snow and ice (or their absence) so we don't have a lot of hard evidence from non-European sources.

There is no doubt that the climate is changing, and always has, but the mechanism is not clear and predictive models have not had a good track record to date. 

As for clouds, the greenhouse effect of liquid or solid water is quite different from that of the gas phase. The phase changes involve enormous exchanges of energy, and clouds reflect radiation over a very broad spectrum both upwards and downwards, restricting both daytime heating and nighttime cooling. The complexity of cloud physics, or even atmospheric water vapor physics,  is orders of magnitude greater than a naive "CO2" model and casts serious doubt over allegations of simple and significant anthropogenic climate change. 
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 30/04/2017 23:55:16
We have no credible and consistent measurements prior to 1864,

What we do know of the last 2000 years...
Which of those is true?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 01/05/2017 00:06:35
We have no credible and consistent measurements prior to 1864,

What we do know of the last 2000 years...
Which of those is true?

That's what you call extreme cherry picking of out of context snippets.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 01/05/2017 00:13:30
@Bored chemist
You did say, did you not, "forgive me for not providing ... the scientific explanation of global warming".
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: puppypower on 01/05/2017 11:53:47
@puppypower The thread is NOT about cloud seeding to mitigate climate change. Don't put words into my mouth that are not there. Have you actually read the first wikipedia link I posted or have you just jumped to conclusions?

I looked at the first post, which was about cloud seeding. I then looked quickly at the second post, which was a list of deniers, I assumed the two were related; leading argument and goal. My first paragraph addressed cloud seeding and how it changes the phase proportions of the water altering the absorption of IR in the atmosphere. Then I addressed the second paragraph.

That aside, if you look at a plot of global temperature versus CO2 concentration, as far back as we can infer, there is no consistent correlation between CO2 and global temperature. See Figure below! If human had been around 140 million years ago and we plotted our 100 years curve, the consensus would say CO2 makes the temperature drop, since that is what the data will say.

All I am saying is this is not a done deal. How would you explain areas of the curve, with the opposite correlation between CO2 and temperature, using consensus assumptions? The model is not that flexible. This is why I go back to politics, which tends to use salesmanship and censorship tools to create that illusion.

(https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.geocraft.com%2FWVFossils%2FPageMill_Images%2Fimage277.gif&hash=c48fc864fe05b818276f49b5b3b0e078)

The earth is geologically active, including under the oceans. If the crust sinks in one place, and rises in another place in the ocean, cold water can pushed under and replaced with hot water that is rising with the crust. There is another mechanism for ocean heating.

Scientists have found a large ocean of water under the mantle below SE Asia. Other scientists found a large scar in the middle of the Atlantic ocean where the mantle is exposed, suggesting sub mantle water broke through the crust and eroded it. This scenario could lead to global warming, even with initially low CO2. The heated water will cause CO2 to leave the ocean water and therefore cause the CO2 to rise as an affect.

Another mechanism is connected to forest fires. Forest fires have a two fold impact, compared to manmade, which has a one fold impact. A forest fire gives off CO2,  like burning fossil fuel. However, a forest fire also reduces the amount of photosynthesis by burning trees and grass. Below is a video from the NASA website.

Forest fires have two secondary impacts both connected to the smoke and ash. The smoke has the impact of reflecting sun. This  has a cooling affect and a reflective affect that can reduce photosynthesis. It can cool and add CO2. It also has an affect connected, to this discussion, which is make the particle nuclei, for cloud seeding, which can reduce the reflective value of clouds, adding to global warming. If you rain out the clouds faster; drastic climate change, more sun reaching the surface each day, for an added warming affect. The smile travelers far and wide so a forest fire in Siberia can impact way over there.

https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a003800/a003868/a010851_G2011-110_Fires_Feature_Global_Tour_ipod_lg.m4v
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 01/05/2017 12:00:50
@Bored chemist
You did say, did you not, "forgive me for not providing ... the scientific explanation of global warming".
No, I didn't.
If you look at the clauses in which those snippets appear they don't actually say what you are claiming.
However in Alan's case he really did say that we have no reliable data before 1864.
Then he went on to use data from before 1864.
Well, he can't have it both ways.
If it's not reliable don't use it.
If it's reliable enough to use then don't disparage others for using it.

It would still have been a valid comment if I had wasted time + bandwidth by quoting the whole of his post.
I didn't actually change what he said- whereas you did change what I said.
Nice try, but it's another straw man.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 01/05/2017 14:42:36
"What we do know of the last 2000 years is that Europe has been a lot hotter and a lot colder that it is now, and Canadian glaciers were a lot smaller 500 years ago. I'm sure there are good Indian and Chinese sources of recorded history too, but human activity is profoundly affected by snow and ice (or their absence) so we don't have a lot of hard evidence from non-European sources."

Where in that lot is Alan claiming 'reliable' evidence? Is it the part where he says 'so we don't have a lot of hard evidence from non-European sources'? To me that the paragraph quoted above is distinct from Alan's previous paragraph. You have yet to discuss the topic of the thread. Is that because you would rather divert the thread away from the topic for some reason?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: puppypower on 02/05/2017 13:08:58
I am not sure if anyone saw the video of the forest fire data from NASA. There was more forest fire than I expected to see. Forest fires offer a unique spin for climate change. This, by itself could lead climate change. When you burn forests, not only are you adding CO2, but you take away photosynthesis. This has double the impact compared to burning fossil fuel, since forest fires adds CO2, while lowering the capacity to reabsorb CO2.

Forest fires also make smoke and ash, which has several secondary impacts. Smoke and ash can scatter the light from the sun, while ash can serve as nuclei for cloud seeding. The former can have a cooling impact, while lowering photosynthesis; cooling with CO2 appearing to get higher. While the seeding of clouds can alter rain fall patterns; rain sooner, and increase solar input to the ground for more heating due to less clouds.

If add to this, the normal flowing of the atmosphere, the impact of a forest fire; downstream, can be variable based on which of these 4-6 parameters are being felt.

There is also a ternary impact, which is the impact of the smoke and dust as it is scrubbed by rain and snow, while also acting as nuclei. The smoke and ash adds black and gray to snow, which can accelerate the melting of glaciers; dirty snow piles will melt faster.

Manmade CO2 tends diffuse due to atmospheric flow patterns and entropy. When you add loss of photosynthesis, due forest fires, you also have pockets of lowered CO2 absorption, which keeps the global CO2 in unsteady state.

I am not saying forest fire is the magic bullet, but the impact of forest fires could singlehandedly explain most changes since it is a swiss army knife of adding and subtracting affects.

One technical spin off is, if we could control forest fires better, we could offset manmade CO2. For every CO2 molecule we save by controlling forest fires, we can add 2 by manmade, and break even. If you look at the video, Africa is the fire continent and would be the place of maximum impact.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 02/05/2017 17:20:00
I'm not sure if I should add something to this or not...  ;)

One thing I am entirely convinced of is that ash and water vapor are two different things...

Also, CCNs may play a major role in the troposphere and stratosphere.

I believe synthetic cloud condensation nuclei is not a magical thing.

The information on cloud physics (CCNs) and condensation aerosols is poorly understood.

"Climate change" is a poorly defined term for controlled manipulation of the climate using stratospheric aerosols.


 
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 02/05/2017 18:33:31
I'm not sure if I should add something to this or not...  ;)

One thing I am entirely convinced of is that ash and water vapor are two different things...

Also, CCNs may play a major role in the troposphere and stratosphere.

I believe synthetic cloud condensation nuclei is not a magical thing.

The information on cloud physics (CCNs) and condensation aerosols is poorly understood.

"Climate change" is a poorly defined term for controlled manipulation of the climate using stratospheric aerosols.


 


It is really because of the conspiracy theory distraction that no one actually wants to discuss the science. Maybe that is your aim. I don't know for sure. So while you are fantasizing about Donald Trump farting out of the back of air force one the world moves on.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 03/05/2017 09:54:32
It is really because of the conspiracy theory distraction that no one actually wants to discuss the science. Maybe that is your aim. I don't know for sure. So while you are fantasizing about Donald Trump farting out of the back of air force one the world moves on.

I'm not sure what is so magical about the conspiracy theory flag. I found no evidences to support this theory
fabricated by the CIA.
I think you deeply misunderstand how CCNs are affecting cloud physics.  :o

Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 03/05/2017 12:40:39
I think you deeply misunderstand the notion of evidence.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 03/05/2017 22:21:41
"What we do know of the last 2000 years is that Europe has been a lot hotter and a lot colder that it is now, and Canadian glaciers were a lot smaller 500 years ago. I'm sure there are good Indian and Chinese sources of recorded history too, but human activity is profoundly affected by snow and ice (or their absence) so we don't have a lot of hard evidence from non-European sources."

Where in that lot is Alan claiming 'reliable' evidence? Is it the part where he says 'so we don't have a lot of hard evidence from non-European sources'? To me that the paragraph quoted above is distinct from Alan's previous paragraph. You have yet to discuss the topic of the thread. Is that because you would rather divert the thread away from the topic for some reason?
Either we know what the temperature was 500 years ago; or we don't.
If you say that glacier length is a measure of temperature then that's fine.
It's just as valid as measuring the length of a column of mercury in a glass tube.
(Obviously, there are issues with other things affecting it too)

If, by some means, such as reported lengths of glaciers, we know that it was warmer then we have a measure of temperature.
If he is  saying that is not reliable, then he shouldn't rely on it.
The magic bit is when you stop thinking of mercury in glass or the resistance of a bit of platinum, and look at things like isotope ratios in ice cores.
That gives you a record of the temperature that goes back for ages.

The fact that nobody was reading it in Celsius at the time does not stop it being a record of temperature does it?

So it's simply misleading to say "We have no credible and consistent measurements prior to 1864, " because we can measure the temperature from way back.

It's particularly silly to say " we don't know what the temperature was; but we know what the temperature was"

Speaking of silly things to say:
Re."You have yet to discuss the topic of the thread. Is that because you would rather divert the thread away from the topic for some reason?"
It was Alan who tried to divert the topic, not me. He did it by by saying something that wasn't right.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 03/05/2017 23:57:15
That was a good come back. Hats off to you BC.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 04/05/2017 10:38:01
I think you deeply misunderstand the notion of evidence.

That's not even the main point of the thread. Why diverting the thread to your magical belief that climate engineering is not real?
I trust the reader will understand that artificial CCNs utilization in the troposphere may impact cloud physics and enhance rainfall.


Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 04/05/2017 12:00:15
Quote
Abstract
Galactic cosmic rays have been positively correlated to the Earth’s low cloud cover. It is now evident that cosmic ray ionization is linked to lowering nucleation barriers and promoting early charged particle growth into the Aitken range. There is a substantially high probability that some of the charged particles grow to the 100 nm range and beyond to become CCN. There is also evidence that electrically charged aerosol are more efficiently scavenged by cloud droplets, some of which evaporate producing evaporation aerosol, which are very effective ice formation nuclei.
The assumption is made that artificially generated, corona effect ionization should act in much the same way as cosmic ray ionization, with some differences that might make unipolar corona effect ionization a more powerful catalyzer of cloud microphysical processes and, consequently, climate. There is much further work required to understand the cause and effect relationship between artificial ionization and weather, including electrical, chemical and physical measurements at the nanoparticle level and beyond, as well as mathematical modeling to describe the observed, measured or hypothesized atmospheric phenomena at different levels of artificial ionization, and, hopefully equal levels of cosmic ray ionization.

https://ams.confex.com/ams/pdfpapers/88063.pdf
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 04/05/2017 12:26:06
I think you deeply misunderstand the notion of evidence.

That's not even the main point of the thread. Why diverting the thread to your magical belief that climate engineering is not real?
I trust the reader will understand that artificial CCNs utilization in the troposphere may impact cloud physics and enhance rainfall.




The climate will never react to order. To imagine that it is an easy thing to 'engineer' the climate is very naive oversimplification. You would be more likely to introduce more chaos rather than less.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Tim the Plumber on 04/05/2017 12:34:29
I think you deeply misunderstand the notion of evidence.

That's not even the main point of the thread. Why diverting the thread to your magical belief that climate engineering is not real?
I trust the reader will understand that artificial CCNs utilization in the troposphere may impact cloud physics and enhance rainfall.

Well artificial climate control is certainly not the point of this thread.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 04/05/2017 13:02:01
Many moons ago the company I worked for developed hydrological software whose data, gathered from remote monitoring equipment was fed into Wallingford's software and ultimately became part of the Flood Estimation Handbook.
http://www.ceh.ac.uk/services/flood-estimation-handbook
The equations developed during and preceding that time are not simply modelling what they expect to happen but using decades of data to test models used in 100 year flood estimates. So I may just have a bit of an advantage in the subject.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 04/05/2017 13:16:52
Well artificial climate control is certainly not the point of this thread.

I disagree. Your magical thinking that solar geoengineering is not deeply implicated in cloud physics and rainfall is wrong.
Climate change is not just a coincidence or natural process. Man-made climate change and radiative forcing alter CCNs physics and rainfall precipitations in-situ.
 
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 04/05/2017 19:15:15
Well artificial climate control is certainly not the point of this thread.

I disagree. Your magical thinking that solar geoengineering is not deeply implicated in cloud physics and rainfall is wrong.
Climate change is not just a coincidence or natural process. Man-made climate change and radiative forcing alter CCNs physics and rainfall precipitations in-situ.
 

To state that everyone who does not agree with you has magical thinking is a diversionary tactic. Your use of the phrase man-made climate change makes it all sound more sinister than it is and another diversionary tactic. You could actually stop trying to be an attention grabbing sensationalist and try to make some valid points. However I doubt you have the resolve to resist the temptation.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/05/2017 20:07:05
Well artificial climate control is certainly not the point of this thread.

I disagree. Your magical thinking that solar geoengineering is not deeply implicated in cloud physics and rainfall is wrong.
Climate change is not just a coincidence or natural process. Man-made climate change and radiative forcing alter CCNs physics and rainfall precipitations in-situ.
 
Let's face it.
If you can make me and JeffreyH agree that you are utterly wrong, you must be pretty badly wrong.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Tim the Plumber on 05/05/2017 11:40:35
Well artificial climate control is certainly not the point of this thread.

I disagree. Your magical thinking that solar geoengineering is not deeply implicated in cloud physics and rainfall is wrong.
Climate change is not just a coincidence or natural process. Man-made climate change and radiative forcing alter CCNs physics and rainfall precipitations in-situ.
 
Let's face it.
If you can make me and JeffreyH agree that you are utterly wrong, you must be pretty badly wrong.

Even include me in that. Is that a record?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 05/05/2017 11:55:14
Even include me in that. Is that a record?

Collective brainwashing is no excuse for avoiding to face the evidences that our climate is being engineered
systematically in the troposphere: http://www.nuclearplanet.com/variable_heat.pdf
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Tim the Plumber on 05/05/2017 13:32:08
Even include me in that. Is that a record?

Collective brainwashing is no excuse for avoiding to face the evidences that our climate is being engineered
systematically in the troposphere: http://www.nuclearplanet.com/variable_heat.pdf

Well, I ain't reading all of that.

Can you quote which bits actually say that geo-engineering is happening?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 05/05/2017 13:40:19
Can you quote which bits actually say that geo-engineering is happening?

Yes.

Quote
In addition to the geological and geophysical processes discussed, the scientific community, including IPCC
scientists, has turned a blind eye to ongoing tropospheric geoengineering that in recent years has
been occurring on a near-daily, near-global basis. Tropospheric aerosolized particulates, evidenced
as coal fly ash, inhibit rainfall, heat the atmosphere, and cause global warming. Evidence obtained
from an accidental air-drop release indicates efforts to melt glacial ice and enhance global warming.
By ignoring ongoing tropospheric geoengineering, IPCC assessments are compromised, as is the
moral authority of the United Nations.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Tim the Plumber on 05/05/2017 14:37:32
And is there any evidence that anybody is doing this as a deliberate act?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 05/05/2017 17:22:59
That doesn't look like a crackpot site at all, does it?   :P
http://www.nuclearplanet.com/
Can you show some reliable evidence? Look I've written it in big it is so important.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 12:13:34
That doesn't look like a crackpot site at all, does it?   :P

Nope. This website is the homepage of Dr J. Marvin Herndon, a respected scientist who dare to oppose the scientific dictatorship of climate change and systematic obfuscation of climatic sciences.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 06/05/2017 12:25:00
I don't care what his qualifications are. He has gone off piste and become a conspiracy theory nut. Also some of his ideas have been falsified and one of his papers retracted. Earth was a gas giant??
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Marvin_Herndon
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 12:43:00
I don't care what his qualifications are. He has gone off piste and become a conspiracy theory nut. Also some of his ideas have been falsified and one of his papers retracted. Earth was a gas giant??
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/J._Marvin_Herndon

The "georeactor" hypothesis proposed by J. Marvin Herndon is controversial. I don't claim to have knowledge on this topic so I won't comment further. However the scientific dictatorship on climate change is evidence of scientific obfuscation on the effects of solar geoengineering on radiative forcing (global warming).
 
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 06/05/2017 13:07:21
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dictatorship
Can you name the individual scientist who is the dictator overseeing this obfuscation. This would help greatly in furthering your claims.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/05/2017 13:08:45
You seem to have missed this bit of JH's earlier post, can you find some evidence please?

Can you show some reliable evidence? Look I've written it in big it is so important.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 13:11:17
Can you name the individual scientist who is the dictator overseeing this obfuscation. This would help greatly in furthering your claims.

The IPCC is a huge organization implicated in advocating climate change and is better known as the "climate cartel".

I hope this helps.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 13:17:05
You seem to have missed this bit of JH's earlier post, can you find some evidence please?

Can you show some reliable evidence? Look I've written it in big it is so important.

I'm blinded by the establisment of ill-defined, unreliable magic thinking which defy human intelligence about the existence and verifiability of solar geoengineering. Either accept solar geoengineering as a measurable phenomenon and source of CCNs or verify your sources.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/05/2017 13:54:31
You seem to have missed this bit of JH's earlier post, can you find some evidence please?

Can you show some reliable evidence? Look I've written it in big it is so important.

I'm blinded by the establisment of ill-defined, unreliable magic thinking which defy human intelligence about the existence and verifiability of solar geoengineering. Either accept solar geoengineering as a measurable phenomenon and source of CCNs or verify your sources.

Why ask us to just accept something?
Why not prove it by showing actual evidence?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 14:02:38
Why ask us to just accept something?

Because the existence of solar geoengineering is not controversial anymore, it is an accepted fact.
What remains obscure and poorly understood is the effects of aerosol radiative forcing on cloud physics and
the climate.

I hope this helps.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/05/2017 14:19:44
Why ask us to just accept something?

Because the existence of solar geoengineering is not controversial anymore, it is an accepted fact.
What remains obscure and poorly understood is the effects of aerosol radiative forcing on cloud physics and
the climate.

I hope this helps.

It won't help until you actually show some evidence.
If it was an established fact that would be easy; but you can't seem to do it.
That's because it's not accepted fact.

So, once again, please supply evidence of geoengineering on anything bigger than an experimental scale.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 06/05/2017 14:37:26
So now what you are implying is that the IPCC is engineering climate change. Basically spraying soot into clouds so that they can become our overlords. What's their plan after that?
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: tkadm30 on 06/05/2017 14:50:16
So now what you are implying is that the IPCC is engineering climate change. Basically spraying soot into clouds so that they can become our overlords. What's their plan after that?
Who knows what Trump will decide on solar geoengineering initiatives. I suspect Trump will increase budget and fundings for solar geoengineering programs.
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/05/2017 15:21:35
I suspect Trump will increase budget and fundings for solar geoengineering programs.
Not a bad bet.
The previews budget for it was zero because they were not doing any.
(unless, of course, you have evidence to show that they were- in which case, why not post it?)
Title: Re: What role do cloud condensation nuclei (CCNs) play in climate change?
Post by: jeffreyH on 06/05/2017 15:25:51
I know that examining scientific evidence and papers is not sexy. You have to be able to think logically. Fantasizing about global conspiracy is much more exciting. This is not the forum for such fantasy. That is why it is called a science forum rather than a fantasy forum. I am now only going to discuss the science. You can continue talking to yourself.