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General Discussion & Feedback => Just Chat! => Topic started by: pensador on 04/08/2019 09:43:01

Title: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 04/08/2019 09:43:01
Moderator Note: This was split off from:
 Which scientists say we've just 18 months to "save planet from climate change"?
Which is still available on the original thread, at:
https://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=77444.0#lastPost

The function of pensioners like me is to prevent those who prefer dogma to logic, from ruining the world for our descendants.

Was it a majority of pensioners that voted for Brexit, many of whom are now dead a year later?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 04/08/2019 10:56:54
Quote from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 23:47:51
The function of pensioners like me is to prevent those who prefer dogma to logic, from ruining the world for our descendants.

Was it a majority of pensioners that voted for Brexit, many of whom are now dead a year later?

I asked one friend, why he voted for Brexit. It was to make the country great again, based on his historic memories. Perhaps he remembers high unemployment, riots, a time before the minimum wage and even the health service. 
The middle class, who want to replace the upper class, usually rile up the working class. They in turn take up arms. So again we have an army led by a potential replacement government. The people never spontaneously rise up.

Some of these "freedom fighters" are then supplied with arms from external governments. They are then fighting proxy wars on behalf of an imperialist regime.

Learn your history!

When I was younger we were moving away from a class based system, The UK government is today is run by upper class clowns. Boris and friends apparently for fun as a student burned 50 pound notes in front of homeless persons.

In high crime areas when the law breaks down, and riots start, you say the middle class are to blame. Could high crime and riots be  induced by high unemployment amongst the middle classes after Brexit. Perhaps it could be induced by Boris giving himself a ginormous pay rise for his troubles.
How do you discourage people from making babies when they are a useful source of income ? there are two stories going the rounds at the moment "the horrors of child labor in the production of cocoa" and the sorry tale of American women having babies to get government benefits and then letting die of neglect.   

Different cultures have different values, why should the external world approve or disaprove of what they get up to, or interfere in another countries laws. If you want to protest Dont support them by buying coco or goods from those countries or areas.

Is that south central or north america?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/08/2019 11:54:08
Was it a majority of pensioners that voted for Brexit, many of whom are now dead a year later?

Not many dead. About 5% per annum.

I voted for Brexit because I'm fed up with paying a membership fee to a club whose primary function is to bankrupt my country. I look forward to a time when I can once again recruit staff on the basis of ability, not nationality.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: jeffreyH on 04/08/2019 12:29:09
Riots are carried out by criminals as an excuse to loot shops. Ordinary folk tend to like to watch telly and sip tea.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 04/08/2019 16:25:35
I voted for Brexit because I'm fed up with paying a membership fee to a club whose primary function is to bankrupt my country. I look forward to a time when I can once again recruit staff on the basis of ability, not nationality.
And you had a plan for after Brexit, which involves not recruiting foreigners, and not giving help to young families.
My scheme has no child benefits. You get money always and only for not being pregnant.

Would you like to cut benefits to just pregnant women, or is that pensioners and the unemployed, and student grants as well.  Should sick people pay for their own illnesses, and not rely on the taxation. Why should healthy people pay for sick people in any successful society. Should just people who contribute be allowed the vote. Will you do away with the minimum wage. Maybe you would like to privatise the NHS. Will you be able to do this without riots.
 
Riots are carried out by criminals as an excuse to loot shops. Ordinary folk tend to like to watch telly and sip tea.

Would you sip tea whilst Alan removes your Pension benefits and privatises the NHS, might you not protest and get involved with a bit of civil unrest ? .
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/08/2019 17:11:47
I assume, from your inaccurate and childish invective, that you are a myopic Remainer, and possibly a member of the Labour Party from which I resigned about 10 years ago.

There's little point in replying in detail since you only seem to read alternate words, and not to understand what is written.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/08/2019 21:13:01
I voted for Brexit because I'm fed up with paying a membership fee to a club whose primary function is to bankrupt my country.
Have you seen what's happened to the value of Sterling lately?
?
I look forward to a time when I can once again recruit staff on the basis of ability, not nationality.
The EU passed (and the UK adopted) legislation which makes it illegal to recruit on grounds of nationality (except in some rather odd cases).
Is starvation an effective method of birth control that might work better than condoms and education? Dont answer that!

It seems not to be. But birth control can prevent starvation.
And, as I pointed out, from the perspective of parents in the developing world, not using contraception prevents starvation in old age.
Not many dead. About 5% per annum.
which is consistent with, 3 years on, the 52:48 majority having disappeared.
Obviously, it's not the only factor.
People turning 18 are another clear factor.
Finding out that the brexiteers had absolutely no idea what they were doing is another.
Even just spotting that the leave party were found to have cheated will have influenced some.
And, of course some simply realised that having stronger links with the EU reduced human trafficking.
And they may have spotted that "taking back control" meant surrendering such influence that we had over the rules which we will, of course still have to follow if we wish to sell goods to the only credible market.

Now that people have a better idea of what's really on offer (spoiler alert- it's not another £350M a week for the NHS), perhaps we should have another referendum- but without massive cheating this time.

What do you think?
Would another vote to see what people now want be a good idea?

Meanwhile, back at the topic, it's difficult to say how long we have to save the planet.
The true answer is we missed the chance.
Some things will already have died out because of our behaviour.

But it's reasonable to make claims about how long we have before we lose some defined level of quality of life.
If we continue the policy of doing little or nothing then Alan's policies on reducing population will be moot.

The planet will do that for us.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/08/2019 23:25:41
The EU passed (and the UK adopted) legislation which makes it illegal to recruit on grounds of nationality (except in some rather odd cases).
EU citizens have the absolute right to live and work here. Australian, Indian, American...citizens do not. So recruitment is strongly biased in favour of some nations and against others (mainly Anglophone). 

Quote
And, as I pointed out, from the perspective of parents in the developing world, not using contraception prevents starvation in old age.
Except it doesn't. If there's no food, there's no food, no matter how many children you have. And if there's insufficient food for two, you both die where one might have survived. Making babies does not make rain or stop wars: it just makes drought and war more painful.

I have no doubt that another vote would reverse the referendum result, because parliamentary dithering in the interim has led to "uncertainty", which is what everyone blames for the collapse of Sterling, and the bizarre invective of the losers has become some kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Negotiating from a standpoint of "we must have a deal" is like burning your aces and shooting the goalkeeper before the game starts. HM Government should have prepared and published an outline set of WTO-based tariffs, immigration rules, etc., before holding the referendum, and not wasted time and money leasing extra ferries to carry the trade that they tell us will actually disappear. Lions led by donkeys, as usual.

Quote
brexiteers had absolutely no idea what they were doing
I was voting to leave the EU, like 140 other nations that are not members. Unfortunately Parliament reneged on its decision to abide by the result. 

Quote
some simply realised that having stronger links with the EU reduced human trafficking.
Hence the daily reports of undocumented east European slaves who have replaced seasonal work visa holders. Bizarre arithmetic, BC.

Quote
the only credible market
now runs at a net deficit of £1000 per capita per annum, having increased steadily in real terms since we joined the Common Market. Plus the membership fee of another £500 p.a. for the privilege. But Remainers don't believe government statistics, do they?

Interestingly, non-members like Russia, China and Switzerland have a trade surplus with the EU. How is that possible, one wonders, if they have no say in making the rules? I could explain, but who would listen?

Meanwhile the climate changes, as it always has and always will, and various species migrate or die.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 05/08/2019 18:41:01
I assume, from your inaccurate and childish invective, that you are a myopic Remainer, and possibly a member of the Labour Party from which I resigned about 10 years ago.

There's little point in replying in detail since you only seem to read alternate words, and not to understand what is written.

You have me puzzled how removing benefits from young couples in the UK, will stop global warming.

The thread is about stopping global warming. This is not the first thread you have posted irrelevant comments on.

I have no allegiance to any political party, and change my votes and opinions regularly. I certainly am not going to vote for Coco the clown in 10 Clowning street  or any member of his party. I will also not vote for the labour party whilst Corben is in charge, something about supporting the IRA terrorism. Which in the UK leaves me with the monster raving looney party, Independents, SDP, and the Greens. 

I thought you might be little senile, based on some of your recent comments. I am not sure I was wrong.

I will leave you to your senior moments. FW't
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 05/08/2019 18:59:07
I have no doubt that another vote would reverse the referendum result, because parliamentary dithering in the interim has led to "uncertainty",

Bullshit !!!!!

Voter apathy and lies from the Brexit campaigners led to the Brexit result. Put to another referendum, Brexit is finished, like Coco and the rest of his aging followers.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2019 19:22:25
Bizarre arithmetic, BC.
A border with patrols on both sides is more likely to be effective.
How did you come to the conclusion that arithmetic was involved?

Plus the membership fee of another £500 p.a. for the privilege. But Remainers don't believe government statistics, do they?
Here's an idea- never mind the government's figures; let's go with the plainly dishonest figure from the Brexiteers of £350M per week.
There are about 66 million people
So that's about £5.30 per week
About £275 per year (and obviously the honest figure is much less that that).

So you are misrepresenting the cost by a factor of about 2, even if you are still naive enough to believe the Leave party.
The real figure is something like half that so you are out by a factor of 4.


Except it doesn't. If there's no food, there's no food,
You missed the usual scenario where there is food.
But if you are old and infirm, you can't... oh never mind.
What's the point?
It's off topic and you are not interested in taking it seriously or you wouldn't say things like that.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2019 19:27:10
I have no doubt that another vote would reverse the referendum result, because parliamentary dithering in the interim has led to "uncertainty"
Parliamentary "dithering"- or "planning" as the grown ups call it may have done many things but what you have said there is that because people now have had a chance to find out more, they are more uncertain.
They know more so they are less sure.
That says that they were wrong to be sure before, doesn't it?
And if they were wrong to be so sure (and, in this context "so sure" is a 48:52 split) then they should find out the truth and then get another try .
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2019 21:18:43
A border with patrols on both sides is more likely to be effective.
But illegal in the EU.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2019 21:20:00
So you are misrepresenting the cost by a factor of about 2,
Not me. Complain to the Central Statistical Office.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2019 22:28:26
So you are misrepresenting the cost by a factor of about 2,
Not me. Complain to the Central Statistical Office.
Citation needed.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 05/08/2019 22:31:24
A border with patrols on both sides is more likely to be effective.
But illegal in the EU.
Have you been to France?
In the real world, there are border staff on "our" side labelled "customs" and there are border staff on "their" side labelled "Douaniers".
In your world, they are illegal.

You need to stop embarrassing yourself.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 05/08/2019 23:10:26
So either there is free movement of people in Europe, or there isn't. And the problem of east European slaves being trafficked into the UK may or may not exist, despite or because of these highly efficient border patrols that you believe are the product of the European Union. Doublethink prevails.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/08/2019 07:29:02
So either there is free movement of people in Europe, or there isn't.
Or there is free movement of European citizens in Europe, but not freedom of movement for others.

And the problem of east European slaves being trafficked into the UK may or may not exist, despite or because of these highly efficient border patrols that you believe are the product of the European Union.
Straw man. Nobody said they were perfect, just that they are better than not having them.

Doublethink prevails.
You need to try single think.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 06/08/2019 07:53:54
Quote
from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 23:10:26So either there is free movement of people in Europe, or there isn't.
Or there is free movement of European citizens in Europe, but not freedom of movement for others.
Quote
from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 23:10:26And the problem of east European slaves being trafficked into the UK may or may not exist, despite or because of these highly efficient border patrols that you believe are the product of the European Union.
Straw man. Nobody said they were perfect, just that they are better than not having them.
All of which is part of my argument for leaving the EU. So no disagreement there.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/08/2019 18:15:29
Well I wonder why we can't deal with the climate crisis. Oh yeah, that's right, we're too busy arguing about why Brexit, or why Trump, or why Boris. That way we can just ignore it and hope it goes away. Let's see how that works out shall we.
OK, fair point; it's a long way from the topic.
But Trump and Boris are not going to behave as if climate change is real, so there is some interaction/ relevance.
All of which is part of my argument for leaving the EU. So no disagreement there.
So, your argument for leaving the EU is that it's better than nothing, and you prefer nothing...
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 06/08/2019 21:13:47
If I lose money every time I do business with you, it is better for me to change the rules of business and the scope of those I trade with. The UK has always had a negative balance of trade with Europe: lowering or abolishing mutual tariffs could only make things worse, and it did.

When the plane is on fire, it is a good idea to get out, which is what I voted for. A sane parliament would have spent the last 3 years deploying the parachute instead of voting not to discuss it.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 06/08/2019 22:03:44
So you are misrepresenting the cost by a factor of about 2,
Not me. Complain to the Central Statistical Office.
Citation needed.
Still waiting.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 06/08/2019 22:47:54
Try google: UK-EU net balance of trade, just like a grownup would do.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/08/2019 07:23:01
Try citing your claimed source- like a scientist would.

Also, my "balance of trade" with the local pub is significant and negative- I buy much more from them than they buy from me.
But it's obviously not a problem.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 07/08/2019 08:14:37
Your drinking would become my problem if I had to pay taxes to subsidise it. And it would become your problem if the pub charged more than other pubs (to protect the internal market), taxed your income from other sources (tariffs), prohibited the sale of the beer you like (because it can't be brewed in Romania) and insisted that anyone else in the village (but not your actual friends from outside the village) could drink at your expense. You might object, but other drinkers would call you a racist, atheist, Little Englander, and a whole host of other things that don't make sense. But truth is less important that the protection of publicans. And you won't be allowed to see the accounts, because the  auditors have refused to sign them off for the last 50 years.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 07/08/2019 17:18:03
Your drinking would become my problem if I had to pay taxes to subsidise it. And it would become your problem if the pub charged more than other pubs (to protect the internal market), taxed your income from other sources (tariffs), prohibited the sale of the beer you like (because it can't be brewed in Romania) and insisted that anyone else in the village (but not your actual friends from outside the village) could drink at your expense. You might object, but other drinkers would call you a racist, atheist, Little Englander, and a whole host of other things that don't make sense. But truth is less important that the protection of publicans. And you won't be allowed to see the accounts, because the  auditors have refused to sign them off for the last 50 years.

Your Brexit stupidity has cost those that live outside the UK, who draw income from the UK investments approx 30% of their income.  The pound is almost at parity with the euro £1.08 = 1€ it was trading at approx. 1.3 before Brexit.

Your Brexit stupidity has raised the price of a beer for those holidaying in the EU by 30%. The cost of house purchases up by 30% .  The people deriving their income in Europe felt nothing, due to Brexit.

How is your house price doing in the UK, how is consumer confidence, what are the expectations for employment, business opportunities etc. The UK is screwed and governed by coco the clown, who was elected based on lies about the EU. He should be in prison for treason. 
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 07/08/2019 18:58:46
Your drinking would become my problem if...
But it isn't.

Would you like to address the point that there's more to life than the trade deficit?
Perhaps you can explain why, if paying in more cash than you receive (like me and the pub) is such a bad thing then why do Germany, France and Italy  (among others) do the same?
https://fullfact.org/europe/claim-about-uks-eu-contribution-correct-meaningless/

Here's a hint; there's more to life than money.
But if money is your focus, how's this grab you?
A remarkable fact: “The FTSE has lost more value in 12 months than the UK has paid into the EU during the 45 years since we joined.”


Aslo, should I abandon hope of you actually citing a source for your figures?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 08/08/2019 11:05:42
"They also serve who only stand and wait." Or you could check in with the Office for National Statistics and get all the information you could possibly want.

Britain subscribes to the EU. France and Germany invest in it. Big difference, as you can see from the resulting trade balances.

The FTSE is a summary of other people's guesses of what price their shares might fetch. It isn't real money.

UK unemployment rose steadily from the date of accession to the EU, reaching peaks in 1983, 1993 and 2012. It is now, for the first time, below the 1971 level. Possibly a meaningless statistic, possibly a reflection of a fundamental change in economics. 

If anyone wants to buy a house in a warmer climate, prices in Greece have fallen by about 40% in the last 20 years thanks to the EU, and if you spend more than EUR 250,000 on a house in Portugal, you get automatic EU citizenship and thus the right to live and work in Britain - how's that for border protection?

Anyone seeking a sensible foreign investment might look at a startup in Ireland. Huge empty factory estates and empty motorways around Cork airport, paid for by your  taxes. Or maybe an entire brand new and unused airport in Spain, ditto.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 08/08/2019 19:13:41
Britain subscribes to the EU. France and Germany invest in it. Big difference, as you can see from the resulting trade balances.
And the "big difference" is that all 3 have a negative balance of payments with the EU and are in this regard, the same.

But what youare saying is that France and Germany make use of teh EU to make money.

So, if we leave the EU, will we be able to do that?


Or you could check in with the Office for National Statistics and get all the information you could possibly want.
I could, but in this instance, it's your job.
I guess you are seeking to avoid the obvious.
The  ONS condemned Boris for his use of a dishonestly exaggerated figure written on a bus.
We can conclude that the ONS think that the real figure is less than £350M per month.
And, if you use that figure as an upper bound, you can do the calculation I showed which demonstrates that, at the least, you are out overstating things by a factor of two.

It's OK.
We all recognise this fact.

Possibly a meaningless statistic, possibly a reflection of a fundamental change in economics. 
Probably due to changes in the way the  figures are reported.

In any event, it can't be due to EU membership.
https://www.euractiv.com/section/social-europe-jobs/news/unemployment-marks-the-divide-between-france-and-germany/
so why muddy the waters with it?
... rose steadily ..., reaching peaks in 1983, 1993 and 2012.
Make up  your mind.
Which did it do?
Peaks are not steady.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 08/08/2019 23:10:47
And the "big difference" is that all 3 have a negative balance of payments with the EU and are in this regard, the same.
So who is winning, if the major members of the EU are losing? Not Greece (bankrupt) nor Spain (massive unemployment) or Italy (all sorts of balance of payments problems). If everyone in the game is losing money, what's the point of a common market?
'
Quote
I guess you are seeking to avoid the obvious.
No, I just don't want to be accused of cherrypicking.

Quote
The  ONS condemned Boris for his use of a dishonestly exaggerated figure written on a bus.
It was clear to me that joining the Common Market was bad for the UK,  before Boris Johnson was born.

According to the ONS our net direct contribution to the EU central fund is £267,000,000 per week (£363,000,000 gross before rebate )(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31),  plus a net trade deficit of £1.15 bn per week (https://researchbriefings.parliament.uk/ResearchBriefing/Summary/CBP-7851).

It's difficult to find comparable figures for other countries but here's a quote from the most Europhilic of sources
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/apr/08/why-the-uk-trade-deficit-with-the-eu...
Quote
08/04/2018 · The deficit with Germany has increased by 5% a year, with France by 7% a year and with the rest of the EU by 11% a year.

and it's worth noting that Germany's annual export of goods to the rest of the EU is about 8 times as large as the UK's. France, about 2 x. That's what I meant by investing in the EU rather than paying for it.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 09/08/2019 08:31:03
Your Brexit stupidity has cost those that live outside the UK, who draw income from the UK investments approx 30% of their income.  The pound is almost at parity with the euro £1.08 = 1€ it was trading at approx. 1.3 before Brexit. Your Brexit stupidity has raised the price of a beer for those holidaying in the EU by 30%. The cost of house purchases up by 30% .  The people deriving their income in Europe felt nothing, due to Brexit.


I find it difficult to sympathise with those who choose to live abroad and extract money from the UK, or to spend their holidays propping up other people's economies.

Unlike Her Majesty's Government, I have chosen to invest in the EU rather than pay for it, and my shares in non-UK companies are doing nicely, thank you, because they have a strong home market and governmental encouragement. 

The British obsession with house prices is one of the reasons this country is less prosperous than it should be. We spend more on housing, both as a fraction of GDP and per square meter of habitable space, than any nation other than Hong Kong. The result is a non-mobile workforce and an exceptionally limited home market for manufactured products: it's very difficult to export if you don't have a home market. Part of the problem is political and media obsession with "the economy" which includes all transactions, from drugs and prostitution to house sales and fine art auctions. "Economic growth" thus has very little to do with economic health or prosperity. A rise in house prices makes a cheap headline but damages prosperity. Decriminalising drugs and building council housing for rent would go a long way to biasing the UK economy towards matters of substance.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 09/08/2019 18:54:39
. If everyone in the game is losing money, what's the point of a common market?
Straw man.
I already posted a link to the answer. They aren't.
https://fullfact.org/europe/claim-about-uks-eu-contribution-correct-meaningless/
For what it's worth, Poland is currently the biggest net drawer.

But, as I said, the major gains aren't cash.
It's still like me going to the pub and spending money; I don't expect to get my money back.

So the bit here about a trade deficit is a red herring.
According to the ONS our net direct contribution to the EU central fund is £267,000,000 per week (£363,000,000 gross before rebate )(https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/publicsectorfinance/articles/theukcontributiontotheeubudget/2017-10-31),  plus a net trade deficit of £1.15 bn per week

And that leaves us with the 267M per week
Shared among 66 million people
About £4 per week
£210 per  year
As I said, roughly half what you claimed it was.

Plus the membership fee of another £500 p.a. for the privilege.


Just before you said
But Remainers don't believe government statistics, do they?

Now, do you accept that the Remainers- backed up by the govt's figures are actually the ones who got the arithmetic right?



Decriminalising drugs and building council housing for rent would go a long way to biasing the UK economy towards matters of substance.
Yay!
It must be Friday.
There's something we agree on.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 09/08/2019 23:55:00
For what it's worth, Poland is currently the biggest net drawer.
If I were Polish, I would be in favour of my country's continued membership of the EU. If I were Polish and working in the UK to support a family in Poland, I would be in favour of the UK remaining in the EU. But I'm not.

It's a pity that you can't see the difference between the UK's direct contribution (the membership fee) to the EU, and the UK trade deficit that results from all members exercising the privileges of that membership. 

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_-_recent_trends#Intra-EU_trade_in_goods_balance    has some interesting graphs (fig 4a, Tables 2,3)  which show the UK as the biggest loser in the game.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/08/2019 00:12:53
So, what you seem to be saying is that in 2004 the "other" 26 members of the EU voted to let Poland in, even though they knew this would be a cost to the EU and they knew that (in most cases) they would be paying for it, or at least, the Poles would be taking money out  which they  would no longer be able to.
This was no secret.
Everyone recognised that Poland would get more cash than they gave.

Since it seems you think "getting more cash out than you put in" is the only important thing, what you are implying is that, all the other 26 members of the EU are stupid, and it's only the UK that's sensible enough to cut its losses.

Or do you actually accept that for some reason it's good to have Poland there, even if their net contribution is negative, and that  it's not stupid for the other member states to pay in.

Well, if it's reasonable for the other 26 states to pay in more (at least to Poland) than they receive, why isn't it sensible for us to do that?
What so ****ing special about us?

It's a pity that you can't see the difference between the UK's direct contribution (the membership fee) to the EU, and the UK trade deficit that results from all members exercising the privileges of that membership. 
I made it clear that I can tell the difference.
I stated that one is a red herring and the other is less than half what you said it was.
has some interesting graphs (fig 4a, Tables 2,3)  which show the UK as the biggest loser in the game.
And you still refuse to understand that , if you buy services, you pay to do so- just like buying beer.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 10/08/2019 09:34:30
Quote
in 2004 the "other" 26 members of the EU voted to let Poland in
with the enthusiastic support of Tony Blair and every employer in the UK - massive resources of cheap skilled labour!

Quote
What so ****ing special about us?
I live here, not there. It's my money, and I'd prefer to spend it on cheaper food and goods from the rest of the world, and on staff recruited on merit, not nationality. Unfortunately all the pro-EU arguments I have ever seen, have been about sentiment.  The EU is about business, and there is no room for sentiment in business. If you want sentiment, look back 80 years and ask yourself why the official language of Poland is not German.

Quote
if you buy services, you pay to do so
The major trade deficit is in goods, not services. The service we buy from the EU is the obligation to import goods from other EU countries without tariff, to host workers from other EU countries without visa limitations, and to discriminate against the rest of the world.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/08/2019 11:32:11
ith the enthusiastic support of Tony Blair and every employer in the UK - massive resources of cheap skilled labour!
And finally, you realise that there's a benefit which isn't in straight cash paid to or from the EU.
That's the sort of thing which costs me the price of a coffee each week. (along with freedom of trade and movement, Euratom, etc)
 Personally, I think it's good value.
You might not, but since you didn't seem to understand what  it was, and you thought it cost more than twice as much, it's probably time you reconsidered.

If you want sentiment, look back 80 years and ask yourself why the official language of Poland is not German.
I think you mean "If you want to know what the EU is really for, look back 80 years and ask yourself why the official language of Poland is not German."

The EU is about business,
No, it's not.
That's why France, Germany and the UK etc are all in it even though, on a straight profit/ loss account basis, it costs more than it gives back.
The major trade deficit is in goods, not services. The service we buy from the EU is the obligation to import goods from other EU countries without tariff, to host workers from other EU countries without visa limitations, and to discriminate against the rest of the world.
The service we buy from the EU as an organisation is not the same as the services we buy and sell to countries that are members of the EU.
The UK buys cheese from France, but it buys [membership of the galileo project] from the EU.
Access to projects like that is why it's worth the cost of a coffee each week.
I'm not actually a massive fan of some aspects of the EU, simplistically, it's a cartell.
But, if you can't break the cartell, you are better off in it than out- the members make very sure of that.
What do you think will happen if we leave?
Do you somehow think they will give us a better deal?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 10/08/2019 11:38:06
Quote
The service we buy from the EU as an organisation is not the same as the services we buy and sell to countries that are members of the EU.
which is why I have been careful to distinguish between the membership fee and the money we lose by being members of the cartel.

They won't give us anything - it's not about sentiment.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/08/2019 12:06:22
which is why I have been careful to distinguish between the membership fee and the money we lose by being members of the cartel.
OK, that's a start.
Now the relevant question.
If we were not members of the cartel would they
(1) let us make more money or
(2) Make very sure we made even bigger losses?

Oh, I see you essentially already answered that.
"They won't give us anything "
So, why do you want to leave?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 10/08/2019 13:13:11
Quote
So, why do you want to leave?
So that we can establish tariffs that reduce our trade deficit with the EU and reduce the consumer cost of imports from the rest of the world; control migration and immigration (not the same thing) with a fair system based on need and  merit rather than nationality; return gradually to a simple legal system based on wrongs rather than rights; make our own rules about state ownership and subsidies; establish a Norwegian-style fishing  policy in protected waters; and eliminate an unaccountable and apparently corrupt level of nondemocratic government. For starters.   

Thanks to parliamentary gamesmanship and David Cameron's lack of a Plan B, it will take a long time to repair the damage caused by unpreparedness, but our grandchildren will be grateful.

Quote
"If you want to know what the EU is really for, look back 80 years and ask yourself why the official language of Poland is not German."
The EU was established after the wholesale destruction and Allied occupation of Germany, without which life in Poland would be intolerable. Poland was not a founding member.

Meanwhile, how do we go about reducing the human population to a climate-resilient level? Or any realistic techniques for reversing climate change? Since the half-life of atmospheric CO2 is said to be about 100 years, even halving our per capita consumption of carbon fuels won't do the trick in 12 years, never mind 18 months.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 10/08/2019 13:33:27
Quote from: alancalverd on Today at 09:34:30
Quote
with the enthusiastic support of Tony Blair and every employer in the UK - massive resources of cheap skilled labour!
And finally, you realise that there's a benefit which isn't in straight cash paid to or from the EU.That's the sort of thing which costs me the price of a coffee each week. (along with freedom of trade and movement, Euratom, etc) Personally, I think it's good value.
Me too.

I can hire a Romanian consultant for the salary I would have to pay a British houseman - good for business. But he sends most of his salary back to Romania where it is spent in the Romanian economy - bad for Britain.

Polish builders arrive on Monday (£45 from Warsaw to Stansted - cheaper than the train from Leicester, but it's an Irish airline, not BA) fully trained in State technical schools, and take home a pile of cash on Friday, having  done a thoroughly professional job in my clinic. Good for business, bad for Britain, and another example of businesses and governments investing in the EU rather than just subscribing to it.

And so forth.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/08/2019 13:40:15
So that we can establish tariffs that reduce our trade deficit with the EU
Do you mean "So we can provoke the EU into raising tariffs against us because we are not big enough to do Jack S*** about it"?

control migration and immigration
As I pointed out before, you don't control immigration or migration by pissing off the folks on the other side of the border.

establish a Norwegian-style fishing  policy in protected waters
Norway currently pays a lot more per capita to the EU to join in some of the benefits that you propose to throw away.


David Cameron's lack of a Plan B
The brexiteers have yet to come up with a workable plan, be it A, B or otherwise.



Meanwhile, how do we go about reducing the human population to a climate-resilient level?
Through international cooperation- which you propose to reduce.
The EU was established after ...
Largely to stop it happening again.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 10/08/2019 13:43:27
Good for business, bad for Britain
Do you pay these  workers more than you pay yourself?
Do you send your  salary out of the UK?
Are you paying more tax because you make more money?
Are you actually benefiting Britain more by making use of the availability of free movement of labour?

https://archive.org/stream/SixFoolishFishermen-English-ChildrensBook/six-fishermen_djvu.txt
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 11/08/2019 11:52:34
] I live here, not there. It's my money, and I'd prefer to spend it on cheaper food and goods from the rest of the world, and on staff recruited on merit, not nationality. Unfortunately all the pro-EU arguments I have ever seen, have been about sentiment.  The EU is about business, and there is no room for sentiment in business. If you want sentiment, look back 80 years and ask yourself why the official language of Poland is not German.
The sentiment is a bit john Cleese,  dont mention the war, european posh culture etc. As someone once said to me with reference to Iraq 2, we can win the war, its just the peace we have trouble with. The european union was set up with that in mind, no european war. Unfortunatley its got about the same credibility and believability as the political situation in iraq, window dressing for the lucky few who have access to the vast sums of cash, where in reality the yellow vests in france, the brexit vote in the uk, hungarian descent, greek economic problems etc, make it obvious there is disatisfaction among the majority. If john cleese would goose step actoss the european parliamemt i wonder what the reaction would be.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 11/08/2019 12:11:51
As I pointed out before, you don't control immigration or migration by pissing off the folks on the other side of the border.
I agree. It's an unavoidable effect, not a cause. But reinstating controlled immigration and temporary migration based on ability and demand rather than "nationality" (including nationality purchased by such schemes as the Portuguese back door) will benefit worthy immigrants from the rest of the world and even help raise wages for Irish workers in the UK.

'
Quote
Do you pay these  workers more than you pay yourself?
Yes. I take minimum wage and a profit share, which can be zero.
Quote
Do you send your  salary out of the UK?
no
Quote
Are you paying more tax because you make more money?[
When, not "because"!
Quote
Are you actually benefiting Britain more by making use of the availability of free movement of labour?
No. The service remains the same, more money leaves the country, and there's a chance that I get a bigger profit share but the net result is a loss to Britain, including taxes not paid by, and benefits paid to, the qualified British staff I don't employ.

Good for business, bad for Britain.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 11/08/2019 12:23:53
Quote
from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 13:13:11Meanwhile, how do we go about reducing the human population to a climate-resilient level?
Through international cooperation- which you propose to reduce.
There is at present no international policy for reducing the population, and if anything the EU is concerned about falling birthrates within Europe which are bad for "the economy" - i.e. business.

I have no intention of reducing international cooperation on anything that matters. But the EU is mostly concerned with establishing rules for international competition.

The UK is well positioned to demonstrate the benefits of a reduced population. Someone has to lead by example, and I don't see the EU as being in any way relevant to this exercise.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 11/08/2019 12:29:22
If john cleese would goose step actoss the european parliamemt i wonder what the reaction would be.
Cheers from a substantial and growing minority, alas.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 11/08/2019 13:34:30
No. The service remains the same, more money leaves the country, and there's a chance that I get a bigger profit share but the net result is a loss to Britain,
If, and only if, your business doesn't add value.
Yes, some money goes outside the UK, but not all of it.

If I have a business making cakes and I buy sugar from abroad then some money goes out of the country.
But the net added value of cake compared to ingredients is such that it is worth it.

Otherwise I couldn't make a profit.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 11/08/2019 18:39:38
If john cleese would goose step actoss the european parliamemt i wonder what the reaction would be.
Cheers from a substantial and growing minority, alas.
Yep, labour supporting corbynite millenials keep making the point that sepratist eurosceptic voters like corbyn are dropping dead at a rate of 1 million per year and thatswhy we should stay in europe, although that demographic also sports the europhile group of teressa mays elk (ilk)
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 12/08/2019 08:55:21
Yes, some money goes outside the UK, but not all of it.
Sadly, the UK no longer has any manufacturing capability for capital medical equipment (not even £5000 dental x-ray machines!)  so I have to buy my machines from overseas. 80 - 90% of the cost of health services is in salaries, so most of the money does indeed leave the country.

Interestingly, I can buy European-made x-ray equipment from the USA at half to 2/3 of the EU price, because the world market is competitive and the EU market is corruptly protective.  Way off topic, so I won't pursue it.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 12/08/2019 17:23:15
sepratist eurosceptic voters like corbyn are dropping dead at a rate of 1 million per year
In other words the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 12/08/2019 19:17:21
sepratist eurosceptic voters like corbyn are dropping dead at a rate of 1 million per year
In other words the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?
Because they were lied to.
They were, understandably, pissed off wit a government that was increasingly obvious about not caring about them.
So, when someone told them "It's all Europe's fault" the voters were inclined to believe them.
They swallowed balderdash like " Turkey is joining the EU"  and " we can regain our sovereignty (spoiler alert; we never lost it)
Sadly, the UK no longer has any manufacturing capability for capital medical equipment
Interestingly, the hard Right- who are the major players in the lies about Brexit- are  the ones seeking to destroy the NHS as well as manufacturing.
Boris and Rees Mogg are not part of any solution to the NHS's problems, nor to those of the UK manufacturing industry.
Have you noticed how Brexit is hastening the damage to both?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: jeffreyH on 12/08/2019 19:26:37
sepratist eurosceptic voters like corbyn are dropping dead at a rate of 1 million per year
In other words the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?
Because they were lied to.
They were, understandably, pissed off wit a government that was increasingly obvious about not caring about them.
So, when someone told them "It's all Europe's fault" the voters were inclined to believe them.
They swallowed balderdash like " Turkey is joining the EU"  and " we can regain our sovereignty (spoiler alert; we never lost it)
Sadly, the UK no longer has any manufacturing capability for capital medical equipment
Interestingly, the hard Right- who are the major players in the lies about Brexit- are  the ones seeking to destroy the NHS as well as manufacturing.
Boris and Rees Mogg are not part of any solution to the NHS's problems, nor to those of the UK manufacturing industry.
Have you noticed how Brexit is hastening the damage to both?

Borjo and Greasy-Smogg are on borrowed time. Out of touch altogether. Just like Trampo the clown in the US. The tide is turning against them but they don't see it. Give it a few years.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 12/08/2019 19:53:38
Give it a few years.
Unfortunately, we only have until Halloween.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 12/08/2019 23:55:27
Because they were lied to.
Nobody  lied to me. Nobody even spoke to me about the subject. My mind was made up before we joined, and everything that happened in the intervening years convinced me that I was right. And nobody believes politicians, whatever they say.

Quote
They were, understandably, pissed off wit a government that was increasingly obvious about not caring about them.
and had been re-elected with an increased majority. Something illogical here.

Quote
So, when someone told them "It's all Europe's fault" the voters were inclined to believe them.
I don't recall anyone blaming the EU for reneging on student fees, cutting local government funding, wasting lives in Iraq and Afghanistan, paying bankers and public service contractors for failure, redisorganising the NHS, or screwing up the benefits system. Indeed HM Govt was very proud if its austerity program, as was the "hard right". 

Quote
They swallowed balderdash like " Turkey is joining the EU"
Negotiations for Turkish accession began in 1987 and ran until 2016 - just before the referendum. Fact, not balderdash.

Quote
" we can regain our sovereignty (spoiler alert; we never lost it)
you have plainly never read an EU Directive, of which 19,000 are now in force. Having to modify your statute law without debate or dissent, however absurd or burdensome the Directive,  is not a badge of sovereignty. 
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 13/08/2019 07:39:44
And nobody believes politicians, whatever they say.
Why do they spend so much time and money saying it?

My mind was made up before we joined
Then you are not part of the group you asked about.

the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?

Try to pay attention to what you say.

you have plainly never read an EU Directive, of which 19,000 are now in force
I have read all too many of them.
And, our sovereignty still stands because, if any UK  (or other EU national) government has felt that any of those Directives was " a bridge too far" they could have triggered article 50, left the EU and not implemented it.

That's what article 50 is for.
Its whole purpose is to maintain sovereignty.

Had you not realised that?

Negotiations for Turkish accession began in 1987 and ran until 2016 - just before the referendum. Fact, not balderdash.
And the rate of progress they are making wrt the requirements is such that they will join in about a millennium.
So the claim that they are joining is balderdash.

Putting the word "fact" randomly into a sentence doesn't make it true.
I don't recall anyone blaming the EU for reneging on student fees, cutting local government funding, wasting lives in Iraq and Afghanistan, paying bankers and public service contractors for failure, redisorganising the NHS, or screwing up the benefits system. Indeed HM Govt was very proud if its austerity program, as was the "hard right". 

Well, the last person I saw blaming the EU was you.
You said that the EU was siphoning teh £ out of the country.
Austerity - and all that goes with it- is based on the idea that the government or the country hasn't enough money.

The two go hand in hand.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2019 08:08:18
Quote
from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 23:55:27
And nobody believes politicians, whatever they say.
Why do they spend so much time and money saying it?
It's their time (most of them are not qualified to do anything else) and your money.

Quote
That's what article 50 is for.Its whole purpose is to maintain sovereignty.


Which, inter alia, is why we have invoked it after several attempts to renegotiate various parts of the membership treaties.

Quote
Quote
from: alancalverd on Yesterday at 17:23:15
the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?
Try to pay attention to what you say.

I have done so, very carefully. Your argument implies that us old folk have been fed anti-EU propaganda for the last 50 years or so. But successive governments and the EU itself have been trotting out pro-EU propaganda (at your expense) right up to and indeed beyond the announcement of a referendum on the subject, with no significant grumbles from Oppositions of either color. All attempts to renegotiate terms were based on the assumption that we would remain members, regardless of outcome. The only change was Cameron's political decision to fight off the UKIP challenge in Tory seats by offering a referendum that he was confident of winning.  The evidence, particularly the demographic evidence, suggests that the result was a triumph of experience (the exclusive property of old age) over propaganda (the only influence on the young), not the other way around.

Quote
You said that the EU was siphoning teh £ out of the country.
. No. I have always said that membership of the EU has increased our trade deficit with Europe. It is true that we pay a fee for the privilege, but that is small compared with its ever-growing effect.

Quote
Austerity - and all that goes with it- is based on the idea that the government or the country hasn't enough money.
Surely, after half a century of membership of this benign and benificent trading organisation, bringing wealth and joy to all, UK government coffers must be overflowing with cash? If we can afford to be a net donor to the EU, we must be absolutely flush with the stuff!
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 13/08/2019 19:16:47
Surely, after half a century of membership of this benign and benificent trading organisation, bringing wealth and joy to all, UK government coffers must be overflowing with cash?
Unless the Tories gave it to their rich friends; which, of course, they did.
They gave the money to their cronies and blamed the immigrants (and "scroungers" ) for the lack of cash.
Then they blamed the EU for immigration and scroungers.
Then they called a referendum on leaving the EU  just before it enacted legislation on tax dodging.


I have done so, very carefully.
Good.
Have you worked out that you have not changed your mind?

Now, I didn't actually say that it was only the old folk who changed their minds that influenced the outcome.

Some changed their minds , some didn't
What I said was that those who did so did it because they were lied to.
Your argument implies that us old folk have been fed anti-EU propaganda for the last 50 years or so.
Not really.
Much of the anti EU propaganda is more recent, and it's not specifically targeted at those who are, say, over 60.
It's their time (most of them are not qualified to do anything else) and your money.
That would also apply to "not bothering to make up lies", so it's not actually a valid answer to the question.
Which, inter alia, is why we have invoked it after several attempts to renegotiate various parts of the membership treaties.
Which particular directive  was responsible?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 13/08/2019 19:27:45
In other words the people who voted to join the EU in 1973 have changed their minds. Why?

was a response to

labour supporting corbynite millenials keep making the point that sepratist eurosceptic voters like corbyn are dropping dead at a rate of 1 million per year
.

Now, I think was born in 49 so, by 1973 he was 24  or so and able to vote.
As far as I can tell he has always been staunchly Eurosceptic.
He still is.
So he's one of the " people who voted to join the EU in 1973 " but not one of those who "have changed their minds.".

Your comment doesn't make a lot of sense.
It's utterly unrelated to the fact that there's a strong correlation of age with voting to leave.
And it's unavoidably true that old people tend to die.
So, simple arithmetic shows that , since the new voters are likely to vote Remain and the ones who have died since 2016 are likely to have voted to leave, the overall shift is  towards remain.

How big that shif might be is not easy to work out.
It may well be big enough to swing the 4% majority.

That's why we should have another election.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2019 20:29:55
How big that shif might be is not easy to work out. It may well be big enough to swing the 4% majority.That's why we should have another election.
Yes, that 's the way the EU does "democracy". If you don't like the answer, have another vote. It worked in Ireland, after all. And it was the way Parliament was going until the Speaker ruled otherwise.

There is a political equivalent of Hawkeye,  called a recount, and it was in every case definitive. No electoral college gerrymandering or special pressure on marginal seats - a simple majority vote. Time to accept it and get on with the future. Or maybe have another vote every 3 years? Why not? 
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 13/08/2019 20:48:12
Yes, that 's the way the EU does "democracy".
Yes, that's right, having a vote is democracy.
Why the quote marks?

Having several votes is also democracy. If the people actually want one particular outcome then this
If you don't like the answer, have another vote.
can't actually work, can it?
You would just keep getting the same result.

The fact is that, quite often, when there's a second (or third) vote, it emerges that people changed their minds since the first one.

Do you think people should not be allowed to change their minds?
Do you think that learning from past experience is somehow undemocratic?


There is a political equivalent of Hawkeye,  called a recount, and it was in every case definitive.
No electoral college gerrymandering or special pressure on marginal seats
Congratulations on finding particular forms of cheating that were not employed.
Did you know that we don't have an electoral college?
There's an equivalent of a rematch. It's what you do when one side is found to have cheated.
That's what we should have.
Time to accept it and get on with the future.
The leave side unequivocally cheated.
As you say, it's "Time to accept it and get on with the future. "
Have a proper vote this time.
Don't cheat.
See what the democratic outcome is.

Fundamentally, why do you have a problem with asking the people what they want?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 13/08/2019 22:58:06

Yes, that 's the way the EU does "democracy". If you don't like the answer, have another vote. It worked in Ireland, after all. And it was the way Parliament was going until the Speaker ruled otherwise.


Not strictly correct, if it doesn't have to have a vote it doesnt,  as seen in macshtrict and lisbon treaties. Push it through change the goal posts. If that fails begrudge a referendum, if it fails, place fingers in ears and then have another vote. This is the problem most fundamental with the EU, due to this stance they do not have democratic authority, they cannot say to people"you voted for it" and when  something that the monied eliete do not like happens, they do not listen !  People do not like the way europe is going and european leaders didnt ask and won't listen!
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 13/08/2019 23:57:21
The leave side unequivocally cheated.
Please tell me in what way I cheated.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/08/2019 07:30:48
The leave side unequivocally cheated.
Please tell me in what way I cheated.
I'm not sure what sort of fallacy you used there
I think it's this one

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Denying_the_antecedent

Or, it may be an interesting paradox.

You cheated by saying that I claimed you cheated- which I hadn't- but, in doing so you give me an example of the way in which you cheated- you misrepresented what I said.

The Leave campaign cheated and was held to account, and fined for it.
You need to accept that fact.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 14/08/2019 10:13:16
The "campaigns" were crap and as ineffectual as any last-minute yah-boo politicking. You can't overturn 50 years' experience and carefully collected data with a meaningless slogan. If membership of the EU was so bloody marvellous, why did David Cameron try to renegotiate it?

Here's how common sense prevailed:

In common with many others, I spent some time discussing the pros and cons of the EU with friends, colleagues and some public forums. The only data I used was from parliamentary library or CSO publications, or EU Directives.

I still have some faith in UK official publications that are not based on EU Directives, but you seem to think that quoting the official statistics on trade balances, cost of living and net migration is unfair.   

The EU Directives on domestic and medical electrical devices clearly misrepresent the truth, and I don't think it is cheating to use the known laws of physics to point that out.  Other Directives that affect me and my clients simply make business more complicated and expensive without adding any value: I don't think it was cheating on my part to discuss my clients' complaints.

I still haven't seen any factual argument in favor of the UK remaining in the EU, but apparently you can't be fined for vapid sentiment or lying about the difficulty of obtaining food or medicine outside the EU. Nor for gross incompetence in awarding huge public contracts to people with no assets and Ts&Cs copied from a Domino's Pizza carton - never mind the empty motorways and unopened airports!
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 14/08/2019 15:44:00
Just to inject a hint of science into this wildly divergent topic:

It has become fairly commonplace to complain that those who voted to leave the EU are "racist". Now 90% of the UK population are Caucasian, and the objection to EU freedom of movement is an objection to other Caucasians entering the country, since the rest of the EU population is even more overwhelmingly Caucasian.

So what is the new definition of racism?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/08/2019 18:47:18
You can't overturn 50 years' experience and carefully collected data with a meaningless slogan.
You already didn't really answer this question but...
Why do they spend so much money on it then?
(Illegally much in Leave's case)
It has become fairly commonplace to complain that those who voted to leave the EU are "racist".
...and also that they are stupid (which, as a matter of science is sort of supported by the split of remain/ leave vs level of education).
So, if they are racist and dim, they won't realise that Africa, China and India are not part of the EU.

In particular, with posters like the one shown here...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-racism-immigrant-prejudice-major-factor-leave-vote-win-study-a7801676.html

Have you forgotten the focus on Calais etc?


Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/08/2019 18:51:50
I still haven't seen any factual argument in favor of the UK remaining in the EU
Yes you have:
Better control of the borders.
Less likelihood of the remaining manufacturing industry leaving.
Not crashing the economy.
Not giving the NHS to the American "healthcare" companies.
Not being generally shitty towards people who came here from elsewhere in the EU.
Not promoting  racism.

I have a feeling that I should say, "but apart from that, what have the Romans done for us?"
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/08/2019 18:54:44
You can't overturn 50 years' experience and carefully collected data with a meaningless slogan.
You already didn't really answer this question but...
Why do they spend so much money on it then?
(Illegally much in Leave's case)
It has become fairly commonplace to complain that those who voted to leave the EU are "racist".
...and also that they are stupid (which, as a matter of science is sort of supported by the split of remain/ leave vs level of education).
So, if they are racist and dim, they won't realise that Africa, China and India are not part of the EU.

In particular, with posters like the one shown here...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-racism-immigrant-prejudice-major-factor-leave-vote-win-study-a7801676.html

Have you forgotten the focus on Calais etc?


but you seem to think that quoting the official statistics on trade balances, cost of living and net migration is unfair.
Where did you come up with that nonsense?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 14/08/2019 20:08:03
Why do they spend so much money on it then?
For the same reason that the remain side did. It's public money, so spend it.

Quote
sort of supported by the split of remain/ leave vs level of education
. I noticed that those academics on EU -funded projects tended to support "remain" until it was pointed out that only 60% of the money the UK contributes to EU science actually returns as grants, the remainder being lost in the byzantine accounts. Among my educated friends, those not in receipt of EU funding were generally sceptical of its value.

Quote
Have you forgotten the focus on Calais etc?
No. I am quite aware of the blatant failure of the EU to apply the United Nations ruling on the treatment of refugees. The only government that did what is actually required by international law was that of the UK, as proudly stated by the Rt Hon David Cameron, MA (Oxon).
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 14/08/2019 20:55:02
For the same reason that the remain side did. It's public money,
No it wasn't.

I noticed that those academics on EU -funded projects
I noticed that academics are a very small fraction of the population.
Didn't you?
No. I am quite aware of the blatant failure of the EU to apply the United Nations ruling on the treatment of refugees. The only government that did what is actually required by international law was that of the UK, as proudly stated by the Rt Hon David Cameron, MA (Oxon).
Do you feel that deliberately missing the point helps debate?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 14/08/2019 23:55:13
From the Electoral Commission
Quote
One hundred and twenty-three organisations and individuals registered with as campaigners at the referendum. Altogether, the 123 campaigners reported spending £32,642,158 on campaigning at the referendum.
Remain: £19,309,588
Leave: £13,332,569

1.45:1 in favour of remain. Interestingly, political parties spent nearly 5 times as much on "remain" as on "leave". This suggests that they really were out of touch with public sentiment.

Quote
I noticed that academics are a very small fraction of the population.
Not round here, nor on the  telly or in the papers. Or in positions of direct influence on the young. And since more than half of the population now go to "uni", it's clearly an aspirational class. 
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Petrochemicals on 15/08/2019 03:08:10
Not round here, nor on the  telly or in the papers. Or in positions of direct influence on the young. And since more than half of the population now go to "uni", it's clearly an aspirational class. 


But the academics are all incorrect, out of touch morons ?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 15/08/2019 06:44:03
they won't realise that Africa, China and India are not part of the EU.
citation needed.

Here's the story so far.

More than half of the electorate had lived all their lives under the status quo.
A government committed to  remain had been elected with an increased majority and had negotiated improvements in the status quo.
Neither major political party took an overt stand on the matter to the extent of mandating MPs, but they spent five times as much on remain publicity than on leave.
The meeja published scare stories about  leaving (including substituting "crashing out" and "cliff edge" for "WTO"),
the EU issued all sorts of dire warnings,
and anyone caught thinking about leaving was dubbed a stupid racist.

and the majority voted to leave.  This suggests to me that the status quo was just a bit unsatisfactory.

Being magnanimous in victory, I will say no more. Perhaps others will learn the complementary British virtue of being gracious in defeat. I think an important cricket match is about to begin.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 15/08/2019 19:50:21
...Altogether, the 123 campaigners reported spending...
Leave's  dishonesty was that they failed to report their actual spending.
So, your point was...?

citation needed.
No.
I don't need to cite evidence for a conditional cause unless you are saying that the condition is always true.
Are you saying that it is true for all Leave voters that "they are racist and dim"?
(also, you don't have to be from India Africa or China to be a victim of racism.)
https://www.eveningexpress.co.uk/fp/news/local/aberdeen-man-in-court-over-racist-brexit-rant-to-his-dog1/

And, on a related note.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/20/racism-on-the-rise-since-brexit-vote-nationwide-study-reveals

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/nigel-farage-trump-go-home-racist-tweet-genius-aoc-ilhan-omar-a9037571.html

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 16/08/2019 08:07:41
What has the world come to, when even the courts confuse nationality with race?

The bloke in the picture looks distinctly Caucasian, probably descended inter alia from prehistoric immigrants from the Caucasus. He was complaining about those more recent immigrants from the same area who call themselves Poles or Romanians rather than Brits, but, like Brits, may or may not be of Caucasian descent.

Trump is an idiot.

Never mind! Your wish may come true, with Caretaker Comrade Corbyn leading the country back to bankruptcy and servitude and deporting the Jews back to....er...Middlesex, actually. Heck, as a Surrey supporter I even fail the cricket test!
   
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 17/08/2019 14:49:21
Caretaker Comrade Corbyn leading the country back to bankruptcy
That's the Tory's job.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 22/08/2019 18:41:48
It has become fairly commonplace to complain that those who voted to leave the EU are "racist".
Because of things like this
https://www.nottinghampost.com/news/local-news/migrant-nhs-nurses-facing-more-3229935?fbclid=IwAR0wxJUr026IcfQ-llURwuMRxB-AxVTDNKaZ2pNHeuibHodm5IycOVGUF-s
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 22/08/2019 23:06:06
Quote
A 31-year-old Spanish nurse of more than four years, who has not been named, said: "Even if I have been here for four years, they don’t trust you

Quote
Ryan Inumerable, who is originally from the Philippines, said: "I've been in the UK for at least 18 years and all that time since working for the NHS, I can say that I've never experienced any form of discrimination both from staff members, patients or their carers.

So not promoting a Caucasian woman is racism, and an Asian who says he has never experienced discrimination is a liar??? Come on, BC, try reading the story as well as the headlines. The nearest they got to an actual fact was

Quote
Dr Spiliopoulos said both EU and non-EU nurses who she spoke to explained the referendum result has been interpreted as a "signal that migrants are not welcome in the UK"


Yes, to a considerable extent that is true, not only because it has been government policy for years (Home Office "hostile environment") but because of the depressing effect of cheap EU labor on wage rates. Migrants (almost entirely caucasian) from low-wage economies in the EU are not welcome (except by employers), hence (in part) the Brexit vote: cause and effect in that order, and nothing to do with race.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 23/08/2019 11:31:19
Yes, to a considerable extent that is true, not only because it has been government policy for years (Home Office "hostile environment")
And nobody believes politicians, whatever they say.

make up your mind.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: jeffreyH on 23/08/2019 15:55:02
So Brexit is a science experiment then? Strange, I thought it was the art of political game playing. Maybe I have stumbled onto a political science forum then. Who knew?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 23/08/2019 19:58:10
Yes, to a considerable extent that is true, not only because it has been government policy for years (Home Office "hostile environment")
And nobody believes politicians, whatever they say.

make up your mind.


It's wise not to trust what they say, but you can't ignore what they do.

Kicking out Windrush descendants and "go home" placards on vans are and were a fact. Problem is that the hostile environment only applied to those to whom the UK owed a debt of gratitude or who had settled and worked here and applied for a British passport, not to white Europeans given the right to be here without a reason.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 01:23:11
So Brexit is a science experiment then? Strange, I thought it was the art of political game playing. Maybe I have stumbled onto a political science forum then. Who knew?
"political science" is pretty close to being a contradiction in terms.


Brexit is a way for very rich people to get richer at the expense of a lot of other people.
WTF has that got to do with science?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 01:25:22
white Europeans given the right to be here without a reason.
How did you come to the conclusion that all Europeans are white?
Anyway the reason is simple.
quid pro quo.

Was there some reason you didn't understand that?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 01:29:51
Problem is that the hostile environment only applied to those to whom the UK owed a debt of gratitude or who had settled and worked here and applied for a British passport, not to white Europeans given the right to be here without a reason.
Just plain  "No".
Are you aware that it applied - in large measure- to recent immigrants who were in fact refugees?
Our obligation to accept refugees is utterly independent of our membership of the EU.
It arises from rules  made by the UN.
So it's irrational to think that Brexit will address this purported issue.

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 24/08/2019 06:17:39
Pretty much my point. HM Govt adopted a hostile attitude to refugees with a genuine need to be here, and the British-born children of invited immigrants from the Commonwealth, but cannot refuse entry to any scrounging scum or convicted murderer with an EU passport. Brexit will at least give us the right to choose immigrants on merit and issue limited visas for seasonal workers.

The refugee question is itself interesting.  UN rules require refugees to be accommodated in the first safe country they reach. Hence a reasonably proud record  of the UK receiving refugees from various European wars pogroms and revolutions. But recent refugees have had to cross the EU to get to the UK. If no part of continental Europe is a safe country for refugees, should we remain politically associated with it?

Apropos your earlier question, about 95% of EU citizens call themselves white. And I didn't express or imply any figure.   
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: jeffreyH on 24/08/2019 08:59:16
So Brexit is a science experiment then? Strange, I thought it was the art of political game playing. Maybe I have stumbled onto a political science forum then. Who knew?
"political science" is pretty close to being a contradiction in terms.


Brexit is a way for very rich people to get richer at the expense of a lot of other people.
WTF has that got to do with science?

You said you wanted to discuss how important facts were because this is a science forum. Except all you were talking about was Brexit. Not science. I just corrected you. That's all. So don't start deflecting. That is a tactic used by those in power who want to cover their sins.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 24/08/2019 11:01:50
Brexit is a way for very rich people to get richer at the expense of a lot of other people.
But a majority of the UK electorate think that is what the EU is for. And they seem to be right. But who cares about facts?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 11:24:26
But a majority of the UK electorate think that is what the EU is for. And they seem to be right. But who cares about facts?

"But a majority of the UK electorate think that is what the EU is for."
Says who?
Also
"But a majority of the UK electorate think that is what the EU is for."
 "And they seem to be right."

 "But who cares about facts?"
Well, not someone whose whole post is made up of unevinced assertions and suppositions...


Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 11:36:06
cannot refuse entry to any scrounging scum or convicted murderer with an EU passport.
Yes they can. and they always could.
That's why "taking back control of the borders" is a myth.
We opted out of Schengen.

And, if we want to exclude various undesirables, the first thing we need to do is recognise them.
To do that we need to cooperate with those on the other side of the border.
Brexit makes that a lot harder.

Here is a summary of the myths about it.
https://ukandeu.ac.uk/myth-busting-free-movement/


Do you accept that the UK always could exclude anyone from the EU whom it chose- it just didn't usually bother?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 24/08/2019 11:37:19
Apropos your earlier question, about 95% of EU citizens call themselves white. And I didn't express or imply any figure.   
If you say it's not about race, why bring colour into it?
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 24/08/2019 23:11:30
We opted out of Schengen.
which gives "no passport" travel for everyone within continental Europe. But we did not opt out of free movement for EU passport holders.

Anyhow, the question of the moment is the impact of Brexit on science.

In the short term, negligible. It would be absurd to curtail any ongoing EU-supported research contracts which were presumably awarded on cost or merit, since any change would increase cost or reduce merit.

Medium term, academic scroungers will have to plead their case in a world market, and commercially funded research will be open to wider participation and recruitment on merit rather than nationality. The political element of EU funding (every project must include personnel from at least two member states, regardless of merit) won't feature. 100% of taxpayer's money currently devoted to supporting EU science projects will now be available for spending in the UK, instead of the current 40 - 60% return, so the central funds available for research will increase. But don't expect any increase in actual support - governments have more politically important calls on your money!

Long term, a return to world markets and recruitment, with science policy directed by UK government and industry, will be a Good Thing, but I expect there will be some shrinkage in the mid-term.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 25/08/2019 10:20:22
which gives "no passport" travel for everyone within continental Europe. But we did not opt out of free movement for EU passport holders.
The point is that we still make choices.
In the short term, negligible. It would be absurd to curtail any ongoing EU-supported research contracts which were presumably awarded on cost or merit, since any change would increase cost or reduce merit.
Essentially everybody involved says you are wrong.
the thing is that "merit"  and "cost" are not fixed.
They both depend on the availability of cooperation.
I work in science and we are no longer allowed to attend (some) EU meetings.
That means we are excluded from the processes of driving scientific research.
It is absurd to suggest that this will not have a negative impact on UK science and thus on the UK generally.


Medium term, academic scroungers
Name calling really doesn't help.
I presume you recognise that doing it undermines your case but you also know that your case is so bad it doesn't have much to lose.
Long term, a return to world markets and recruitment, with science policy directed by UK government and industry, will be a Good Thing,

In the long term, we are all dead.
So it's a stupid thing to prioritise absolutely over the present.
commercially funded research will be open to wider participation and recruitment on merit rather than nationality.
No
It will be substantially excluded from  the EU which is one of the worlds biggest economies and a power house of scientific research. That's the point of the EU; it's a cartel.
They don't let the non members in.
We will be demoting ourselves to a 3rd party state.
That will not help.
(and that's before you consider the impact of the exchange of ideas that arises from movement of people)
100% of taxpayer's money currently devoted to supporting EU science projects will now be available for spending in the UK, i
Yes, and zero percent of the EU's money will be available for them.

The UK is the second biggest recipient of EU  research funding (6.6 £B per year) (Germany gets more).
That's roughly half as much as the UK govt spends.( £12.2 billion in 2017) from
https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/governmentpublicsectorandtaxes/researchanddevelopmentexpenditure/bulletins/ukgovernmentexpenditureonscienceengineeringandtechnology/2017
So you are talking about removing a third of the total money.
Even if you were right about the made up "40 - 60% return" it wouldn't cover the loss.
And you say " But don't expect any increase in actual support - governments have more politically important calls on your money! ", so it's not going to be replaced by the UK govt.

You are kissing goodbye to what could be described on the side of a bus as "£170 million per week".
And you are saying it won't have an effect.

As I said, Essentially everybody involved says you are wrong.
The people involved are scientists- we are good at evidence based decision making.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: pensador on 01/09/2019 17:06:22
It seems there might be money to be made from a no deal Brexit, if you are unscrupulous.
https://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2019/07/11/boris-brexit-and-the-hedge-funds-part-1/

After she became Prime Minister, Theresa ‘Brexit means Brexit’ May spent a long time with other EU national leaders working out an agreed Brexit plan. But when this huge Withdrawal Agreement finally came out, some of the most prominent Brexiteers were deeply unhappy with it. Because at the back of the document there was a commitment by the British Government to retain the EU’s new anti-tax avoidance laws.

Assuming that Coco Boris Johnson might not be as stupid as he comes over and is hell bent on a no deal Brexit for non scrupulous reasons. How can people without hedge funds make some cash out of the disaster or avoid losing any more.

Is it good time to liquidate all UK assets, and reinvest after a no deal takes place ?

Edit Don't ever post a document you are looking at with google docs through your email it leaves you logged in. File deleted!

Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 02/09/2019 07:27:11
How can people without hedge funds make some cash out of the disaster or avoid losing any more.
Buy gold.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: alancalverd on 04/09/2019 17:46:53
I work in science and we are no longer allowed to attend (some) EU meetings.
Are you insinuating that EU science is subservient to politics? The UK hasn't left the EU yet, and on current showing is unlikely to do so on anything that might be described as genuine separation terms. So your scientific contribution is being rejected on the grounds of what might happen politically and economically at some unspecified date in the future. Funny attitude: footballers continue to play for their team until their contract actually expires.
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 04/09/2019 19:36:53
I am stating the obvious.
Science needs cooperation.
So your scientific contribution is being rejected on the grounds of what might happen politically and economically at some unspecified date in the future
No
The brexit-mad government has banned us from making a contribution.
I'd not like to rule out the idea that they are just undermining the public sector as usual.

It is certainly a funny attitude.
So is sacking your own MPs and destroying your majority.
So is adopting a policy which is so bad that you dare not tell the public about how it will pan out.
So is battling to bring about a change that the majority no longer want.

But that's Brexit for you.


Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: syhprum on 05/09/2019 21:28:42
How do you see the future of the word "Brexit" in 10 years time will it have disappeared from contemporary dictionaries ?
we can but hope ! 
Title: Re: What impact will BREXIT have on Science & Society?
Post by: Bored chemist on 08/09/2019 09:00:37
Well, the Swiss sort of did the experiment, so we know what happens.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/sep/06/switzerland-scientific-exile-no-deal-brexit-britain-eu-immigration?fbclid=IwAR0dna_V2y1TSsB3BAhinqw4vGy0GqecIsQKqIWRWfd1aFV3Nv21nQu1T_M