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Messages - profound

Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 ... 13
21
New Theories / Re: Is I.T. E.R. the wrong shape?
« on: 04/06/2020 21:07:23 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 04/06/2020 20:21:21
Quote from: Kryptid on 04/06/2020 15:36:06
Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 13:50:09
Well 3 years later and still no fusion....

I TOLD YOU SO.

Did anyone here claim that we would have fusion in three years?
Just to clarify things, three years ago (when the thread started) the ITER was not scheduled to be built until 2025.
So crowing about it not working yet is absurdly illogical...


it's been put further back and it will never work as it is the wrong shape. how many torus shaped stars can you point to....


exactly zero..

its a too big to fail gravy train.



can i make you eat your hat if it does not work which it will not.


remember its mission  statement?

confinement for 90 seconds...

22
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 04/06/2020 21:03:35 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 04/06/2020 15:43:48
Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:02:24
Alkaline water has health benefits and hence internet censors removed it under the pretext of fake news.

Everything that goes against big pharma is being removed or vilified or labelled as fake news.

Please give evidence to support this conspiracy theory.

Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:47:49
Their is no proof that what you stated above is true

Do you even know what pH is?


i cant because empirical evidence is not accepted and trials cost many millions

23
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 04/06/2020 21:02:35 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 04/06/2020 15:00:11
Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:47:49
Their is no proof that what you stated above is true ".
Yes there is.
It's called science.
I have done the experiments.


Why not just withdraw your  assertion that I'm a liar, and look less of a fool?

Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:47:49
no proof that Chemo "bought my mother another 5 years of life".
Well, she got out of bed and went round the world on holiday.
What  alternative explanation do you offer for her recovery, and that of millions of others?
What do you suggest is the reason why people with cancer now live longer than they used to?

Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:47:49
Remember correlation is not proof of causation.
Remember that nobody said it was.
Remember not to say silly things.


Look it's really WRONG to use your mother to win arguments and morally dubious.

In addition it cannot be verified by pear reviewed publications.

There is no proof people live longer as the number dying from cancer  is still over 50000 in USA alone

24
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 04/06/2020 20:59:05 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 04/06/2020 15:06:50
Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 11:52:45
get W.H.O to ban HCQ.
Were you born stupid, or did you work at it?
Because, posting something which is that obviously wrong, on a science page is pretty stupid, isn't it?

"Hydroxychloroquine was approved for medical use in the United States in 1955.[2] It is on the World Health Organization's List of Essential Medicines, the safest and most effective medicines needed in a health system.[8]"
from
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hydroxychloroquine


Also, why do you keep posting the same thing?
Nobody is saying that people with low vitamin D levels are not more susceptible to Covid.
We all agree that's the case.
You can stop banging on about it now.
OK, have you got that?

Right, now answer the real question.
How do you know that low vitamin levels are not just a proxy measure of poverty?



WHO banned it from test trials for covid not altogether.

poverty is irrelevant. i am very poor. i have a black and white tv. dampness on the walls. i eat fast food and travel on crowded buses and trains and i have still not got covid19 because i take vitamin d.

25
New Theories / Re: Is I.T. E.R. the wrong shape?
« on: 04/06/2020 13:50:09 »
Quote from: evan_au on 31/10/2017 19:34:50
Quote from: profound
Yet another fusion startup....you mean the wallet of tax payers on this fools errand?
Startups only waste the money of the investors - but it sometimes pays off big for the investors.

More frequently, it might employ some people for a while, and if they are lucky, generate some patents or new ideas that other people will build on later (sometimes even the same people).

That's what risky, high-tech science involves.

Whatever happens, the engineering and international coordination involved in a large-scale project like ITER generates economies of scale in superconductors, develops new industries, and will generate many patents and scientific papers, even if it doesn't generate any electricity.


Well 3 years later and still no fusion....

I TOLD YOU SO.

26
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 04/06/2020 12:47:49 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 04/06/2020 12:22:46
Quote from: profound on 04/06/2020 12:02:24
Alkaline water
is a contradiction in terms.
Water is neutral.


Chemo bought my mother another 5 years of life.


Their is no proof that what you stated above is true and no proof that Chemo "bought my mother another 5 years of life".

Remember correlation is not proof of causation.

27
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 04/06/2020 12:02:24 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 21/05/2020 20:20:52
Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 12:45:33
the article seem to have been removed by internet censors.

Why assume that "Internet censors" are responsible for its removal?

Because the article mentioned that high intensity light caused ions to be created and made the water alkaline when tested.

Alkaline water has health benefits and hence internet censors removed it under the pretext of fake news.

Everything that goes against big pharma is being removed or vilified or labelled as fake news.

I think it would be great if Big Pharma products were labeled as scams and snake oil.

Level the playing field.

Did you know that 510000 people died of cancer in USA in 2018 and at least 88% got chemo
 but still ended up dead !!!

Chemo is snake oil but correlation is not causation you scream...

28
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 04/06/2020 11:52:45 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 21/05/2020 23:01:49
Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 22:19:44
You would say that even if a 100 people got shot in from of you.

Notwithstanding that "shot in from of you" doesn't parse, I'd have to ask you how you derived that from what I said? Bullets causing death is something that is so profoundly well-studied and understood that all you have done is straw-man what I said. I did not say that correlation never hints at causation. To get a handle on what I was actually saying, consider this: if people are more likely to eat ice cream in the Summer and are also more likely to get heat stroke in the Summer, does that hint that ice cream causes heat stroke? No, it doesn't. Hence why I said that correlation does not always hint at causation.

Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 22:19:44
The real reason everyone is denying that vitamin D decreases mortality is that they don't want Big Pharma to lose the TRILLION dollars they expect to make from the side effect laded untested vaccine/drug coming in the next few months

How about supplying evidence for this conspiracy theory? Are you implying that everyone here who is questioning your claims works for "Big Pharma"? That's the kind of reasoning that a crank uses.

Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 22:19:44
COVID-19, Diabetes and Vitamin D deficiency.
Vitamin D Insufficiency in ICU patients less than 75 years old 100.0% !!
Vitamin D deficiency < 20 ng/ml 98,9% patients died, 1.1% recovered.
Vitamin D sufficient level > 30 ng/ml   4,1% died, 95,9% alive or recovered

So when people have a sufficient level of vitamin D they are less likely to die from illness than those people who don't? That's common sense. I don't think anyone here is denying that vitamin D deficiency makes you more vulnerable to illness. What is being question (at least by me) is whether an excess of vitamin D has any significantly beneficial impact on recovery than merely having a sufficient amount of it.


D3 is dirt cheap. I can get 365 softgels 10000 i.o for under $10.

So is HCQ which only costs a dollar. But large scale corruption caused big pharma to recommend which REMDESVIR which costs $4000 and get W.H.O to ban HCQ.

All the research indicates most people are very low in D3 and the greater the risk of death.

Here is another new study:-

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
99 percent of the 380 Indonesians who died of COVID-19 had low vitamin D - May 2020
COVID-19 Death vs Vitamin D VDW11788

Covid-19: More deaths? More lockdown? More suffering?
Vitamin D deficiency causes a 10 times higher death rate in Covid-19 patients according to recent studies.
What we can do to get the Covid-19 pandemic under control and avoid another lockdown
Lorenz Borsche / Dr. Bernd Glauner
 PDF extracted to this page - from authors in Germany
Extraction of tables wad poor - please see PDF
 Original Indonesia preprint Does vitamin D (and C) help with Covid-19 - May 2020

Introduction
The authors see sufficient scientific plausibility that with a good vitamin D level many corona deaths could still be alive today.The studies listed wrt the course of the disease and the death rate in Covid-19 infections dependant on vitamin D level are evident, among others a study with 780 participants. That may be a factor of 12 smaller than a placebo-controlled double-blind study with 10,000 participants. The study is still significant because it shows that infections in groups with deficient vitamin D levels are 10 times more likely to end in death.With a vitamin D supplementation to levels known from nature (East Africa: Massai/Hadza, Central Africa: wild chimpanzees) of 45 ng/ml, there is a good chance that Covid-19 would not have any worse effects than a severe wave of influenza.


A lockdown would then be just as unnecessary as the justified fear of our elderly fellow citizens and the risk groups, which imposes an abnormal life on all of us.Quite independently of corona, it has been known and published for many years that vitamin D deficiency promotes the development of pneumonia - technically correct from ARDS (Acute Respiratory Distress Symptom) - as a result of viral infections. In addition, vitamin D stimulates the body's own synthesis of antiviral substances which specifically block the spike protein necessary for the docking mechanism of covid-19 to the receptor protein ACE2. All this is well-researched, published information that clearly shows us that vitamin D deficiency patients are at high risk of getting pneumonia.


In today's society, a large part of the population suffers from a massive vitamin D deficiency - especially in winter (see chapter: What else you should know WHO vs. D-A- CH limits).Statistics often assume that blood values of 20ng/ml are sufficient for vitamin D function. But these limits date back to the time when vitamin D was only studied for its effect on bone metabolism. The fact is - and studies in many European countries show this - that depending on the country, 20-40% of people do not even reach this value (20 ng/ml) even in summer.


One reason for this is the recommendations for vitamin D substitution. It has been published for years that the official recommendations of 400-800 units of vitamin D per day are based on a calculation error by a factor of 10. Unfortunately, this has still not been included in the official recommendations, as they should be in the range of 5,000 international units per day. Necessary for a stable immune system are blood values of 40- 50ng/ml. But only a few people to reach this level.

 The data presented in this article show that up to 90% of deaths could be avoided. This means that the current situation could also be symbolically described as a "vitamin D deficiency pandemic". Unfortunately, in Germany neither the family doctor nor hospitalised patients routinely measure the blood level of vitamin D, even though all relevant organisati­ons, such as the DGE, BfR, RKI and WHO, repeatedly report that our population suffers from a vitamin D deficiency that also causes other health problems.The present study from Indonesia shows exactly the result that must be expected based on the scientific background described above.

At vitamin D concentrations below 20 ng/ml, a very large number of patients succumb to the pneumonia triggered by Covid-19, whereas at vitamin D concentrations >30 ng/ml, the majority of patients survive and this with a statistically very good correlation.Large medical studies are very expensive. Someone has to raise the necessary funds in the hope that if the results are positive that tehre will be a revenue.

Given the low market price of vitamin D, this simple economic constraint explains why there are relatively few studies on vitamin D. Lorenz Borsche has been trying for a few weeks now to find partners in the medical field in Germany who, with his financial support, carry out purely observational ex-post studies (vitamin D testing of infected persons / course of disease), unfortunately without any success so far. The three studies presented here were initiated by ordinary doctors (MD/GP) and financed from their own resources and with considerable personal commitment(1}.

 One must therefore not apply the same standard as in large- scale double-blind studies. Nevertheless, the results are so overwhelmingly clear that they should be examined.The rapid increase of vitamin D levels in covid-19 infected patients with vitamin D deficiency (< 30ng/ml), as well as vitamin D supplementation in doctors, nursing staff and risk patients to a healthy blood level of 40-50ng/ml, is - in the authors' view - the only conceivable solution to effectively contain the corona pandemic. One then could most likely allow the SARS-CoV-2 virus to spread and people could survive the infection like a wave of influenza. Apart from the social and economic benefits, this would also be much cmore economic than any other measure and might cost a fraction of what the lockdown has cost and will cost us - in money and in human lives.#000000:__''

The latest studies on Covid-19 and vitamin D

2 May the authors received a publication from Indonesia. Prabowo Raharusuna and his team had examined 780 covid-19 patients for their vitamin D levels. This study is neutral and independent, it was neither sponsored nor are there any other conflicts of interest. depressingly clear!

After correction for age, sex and previous illnesses, the risk of death is 10 times higher for people with vitamin D deficiency. For insufficient vitamin D status still 7 times higher than for sufficient, good vitamin D level.In order to make the evaluation transparent and easy to interpret even for non-scientists, Sadiah Priambada, a statistician in the team, prepared the data in such a way that the three comparison groups with vitamin D levels of <20, 20-30 and >30 ng/ml can be assessed on the basis of an equal age average and an equal number of cases.

This more easily readable evaluation leads to practically the same results as the original data, which proves not only the stability of the data, but also the correctness of the previously chosen statistical approach to the calculation of the influencing factors age, sex and previous fluctuations.
 
1   Vitamin D < 20 ng/ml (18.2 ± 0.6)   Vitamin D 20-30 ng/ml(26.6 ± 1.4)   Vitamin D > 30 ng/ml(32.1 ± 1.3)
Overall, N   60   60   60
Mean age   61.5 ±4.9   61.2 ±3.5   61.3 ± 1.6
Comorbidity, %   85.0   76.7   10.0
Death, %   100.0   88.3   3.3
Active,, %   0.0   11.7   96.7

https://vitamindwiki.com/99+percent+of+the+380+Indonesians+who+died+of+COVID-19+had+low+vitamin+D+-+May+2020


29
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 22:19:44 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 21/05/2020 21:20:44
Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 21:18:09
No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint.

Not always.

You would say that even if a 100 people got shot in from of you. ''Correlation_does_not_imply_causation" despite the bullet holes.

The real reason everyone is denying that vitamin D decreases mortality is that they don't want Big Pharma to lose the TRILLION dollars they expect to make from the side effect laded untested vaccine/drug coming in the next few months
and most have a stake in the this huge cash cow.

Here is more proof that low vitamin D levels cause DEATH.



COVID-19, Diabetes and Vitamin D deficiency.
Vitamin D Insufficiency in ICU patients less than 75 years old 100.0% !!
Vitamin D deficiency < 20 ng/ml 98,9% patients died, 1.1% recovered.
Vitamin D sufficient level > 30 ng/ml   4,1% died, 95,9% alive or recovered
These are some figures from studies about COVID-19 and Vitamin D

COVID-19 is only the top of a much bigger global pandemic.
More than 1 billion people are obese or have Diabetes.
More than 1 billion people have vitamin D deficiency.
Both groups have the highest risk to die from COVID-19
A sufficient vitamin D level > 30 ng/ml is the best prevention
as we can see in many clinical studies worldwide.

Blood tests for Vitamin D levels & COVID-19 might be helpful,
especially in care homes, for sick people with darker skin,
immune disorder and everybody who is already infected,
who does not get enough sunlight to produce sufficient Vitamin D levels.

"Vitamin D Insufficiency is Prevalent in Severe COVID-19"
published in medRxiv April 24th 2020
Vitamin D Insufficiency in ICU patients less than 75 years old 100.0%
Vitamin D Insufficiency in Intense Care Unit (ICU) patients         84.6%
Vitamin D Insufficiency in floor patients in hospitals                    57.1%
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.24.20075838v1

"Patterns of COVID-19 Mortality and Vitamin D: An Indonesian Study"
780 cases with laboratory-confirmed infection of SARS-CoV-2 in Indonesia.
179 patients with Vitamin D deficiency    < 20 ng/ml 98,9% died,   1.1% active
213 patients with insufficient Vitamin D 20-30 ng/ml 87,8% died, 12.2% active
388 patients with sufficient    Vitamin D   > 30 ng/ml   4,1% died, 95,9% active
A retrospective cohort study which included two cohorts (active and expired)
from Prabowo Raharusuna and others published on 6 May 2020 in SSRN
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561

"COVID-19 ’ICU’ risk – 20-fold greater in the Vitamin D Deficient. BAME,
African Americans, the Older, Institutionalized and Obese, are at greatest risk"
published in British Medical Journal (BMJ) 20 April 2020
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

30
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 21:18:09 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 21/05/2020 17:44:47
Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 16:38:38
That old chestnut? I was expecting that and sure enough you trotted it out right on cue.
You forgot to address it.

Do you accept that if I plotted incidence/ severity  of covid vs household income (In any given age bracket), I would find that richer people are less affected?

Do you accept that , if I plotted Vitamin D levels against income I would also find a correlation?

And, if those correlations exist, how would there not be a correlation between covid and vitamin D?





The Internet Blowhard’s Favorite Phrase
Why do people love to say that correlation does not imply causation?

By Daniel Engber
Oct 02, 20128:33 AM

Karl Pearson.

Depressed people send more email. They spend more time on Gchat. Researchers at the Missouri University of Science and Technology recently assessed some college students for signs of melancholia then tracked their behavior online. “We identified several features of Internet usage that correlated with depression,” they said. Sad people use IM and file-share. They play video games. They surf the Web in their own, sad way.

Not everyone found the news believable. “Facepalm. Correlation doesn’t imply causation,” wrote one unhappy Internet user. “That’s pretty much how I read this too… correlation is NOT causation,” agreed a Huffington Post superuser, seemingly distraught. “I was surprised not to find a discussion of correlation vs. causation,” cried someone at Hacker News. “Correlation does not mean causation,” a reader moaned at Slashdot. “There are so many variables here that it isn’t funny.”

And thus a deeper correlation was revealed, a link more telling than any that the Missouri team had shown. I mean the affinity between the online commenter and his favorite phrase—the statistical cliché that closes threads and ends debates, the freshman platitude turned final shutdown. “Repeat after me,” a poster types into his window, and then he sighs, and then he types out his sigh, s-i-g-h, into the comment for good measure. Does he have to write it on the blackboard? Correlation does not imply causation. Your hype is busted. Your study debunked. End of conversation. Thank you and good night.

The correlation phrase has become so common and so irritating that a minor backlash has now ensued against the rhetoric if not the concept. No, correlation does not imply causation, but it sure as hell provides a hint. Does email make a man depressed? Does sadness make a man send email? Or is something else again to blame for both? A correlation can’t tell one from the other; in that sense it’s inadequate. Still, if it can frame the question, then our observation sets us down the path toward thinking through the workings of reality, so we might learn new ways to tweak them. It helps us go from seeing things to changing them.

So how did a stats-class admonition become so misused and so widespread? What made this simple caveat—a warning not to fall too hard for correlation coefficients—into a coup de grace for second-rate debates? A survey shows the slogan to be a computer-age phenomenon, one that spread through print culture starting in the 1960s and then redoubled its frequency with the advent of the Internet. The graph below plots three common versions of the phrase going back to 1880 as they turn up in Google Books. It’s that right-most rise that interests me—the explosion of correlations that don’t imply causation in the 1990s and 2000s. Beware of spurious correlations, I know! But it is tempting to say the warning spread in the squall of data on the Web, as a means of warding off the cheap associations that ride a stormy sea of numbers. If now we’re quick to say that correlation is not causation, it’s because the correlations are all around us.

Courtesy Google.

Let’s go back a little further, though, to the origins of the phrase itself. Those first, modest peaks of “correlation is not causation” show up in print in the 1890s—a date that happens to coincide with the discovery of correlation itself. That’s when the British statistician Karl Pearson introduced a powerful idea in math: that a relationship between two variables could be characterized according to its strength and expressed in numbers. Francis Galton had futzed around with correlations some years before, and a French naval officer named Auguste Bravais sketched out some relevant equations. But it was Pearson who gave the correlation its modern form and mathematics. He defined its role in science.

Philosophers had spent centuries, by that point, on the question of how the mere association of events might reveal their causal links and what it means to say that one thing can ever cause another. The ambiguity of correlations was well-known. Victorian logician Alexander Bain wasn’t breaking new ground in 1870 when he warned his readers of the “fallacy of causation,” whereby we might assume that, say, “the healthy effect of residence at a medicinal spa is attributed exclusively to the operation of the waters,” as opposed to being caused by “the whole circumstances and situation.” The confusion between correlation and causation, he said (not quite using the famous phrase), “prevails in all the complicated sciences, as Politics and Medicine.”

With the arrival of Pearson’s coefficients and the transformation of statistics, that “fallacy” became more central to debate. Should scientists even bother with a slippery concept like causation, which can’t truly be measured in the lab and doesn’t have a proper definition? Maybe not. Pearson’s work suggested that causation might be irrelevant to science and that it could in certain ways be indistinguishable from perfect correlation. “The higher the correlation, the more certainly we can predict from one member what the value of the associated member will be,” he wrote in one of his major works, The Grammar of Science. “This is the transition of correlation into causation.”
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But Pearson’s language on the matter was inconsistent and confusing. The father of correlation did worry about its overuse, says Theodore Porter, a historian of science at UCLA and a Pearson specialist. A footnote to the second edition of The Grammar of Science, published in 1900, lays out a critique of spurious relationships in terms that would not look out of place on an Internet message board:

All causation as we have defined it is correlation, but the converse is not necessarily true, i.e. where we find correlation we cannot always predict causation. In a mixed African population of Kaffirs and Europeans, the former may be more subject to smallpox, yet it would be useless to assert darkness of skin (and not absence of vaccination) as a cause.

Pearson’s critics expressed the same concern. That year in Science, a reviewer called out the book’s “transition of correlation into causation” as one that is “scarcely allowable” and went on to note (emphasis mine) that, “correlation does not imply causation, though the converse is no doubt true enough.”

So it seems the fear of correlations was formalized—made into a turn of phrase, I mean—at around the time that correlations came into formal being. One might say (citing another correlation) that Pearson’s work marks the transition from an age of causal links to one of mere relationships—from anecdotal science to applied statistics. As correlations split and multiplied, we needed to remind ourselves of what they meant and what they didn’t. The graph below, again from Google Books, shows the shift in language that marked this change in spirit: Up until the early 1900s, causation showed up more often than correlation in the corpus; then the concepts flip. (I’ll let someone else explain why correlations have been trending downward since 1976.)



In the decades to come, the phrase correlation does not imply causation made its way into textbooks and academic journals, while the social sciences were made over with newfangled statistics. By the 1940s, economists had devised a name for the insufficiency of correlations: They called it the “identification problem.” A flood of numbers in the postwar years may have made the anxiety more acute until its apotheosis in the present day, when Google, Amazon, and the other data juggernauts belch smoggy clouds of information and spit out correlations by the ton. “That may be as deep a sense of causation as they care about,” Porter says. “To them, perhaps, automated number-crunching stands for the highest form of knowledge that civilization has ever produced.” In that sense, the admonitory slogan about correlation and causation isn’t so much a comment posted on the Internet as a comment posted about the Internet. It’s a tiny fist raised in protest against Big Data.

But there’s still another puzzle in the phrase. To say that correlation does not imply causation makes an important point about the limits of statistics, but there are other limits, too, and ones that scientists ignore with far more frequency. In The Cult of Statistical Significance, the economists Deirdre McCloskey and Stephen Ziliak cite one of these and make an impassioned, book-length argument against the arbitrary cutoff that decides which experimental findings count and which ones don’t. By convention, we call an effect “significant” if the chances of its deriving from a twist of fate—as opposed to some more genuine relationship—are less than 5 percent. But as McCloskey and Ziliak (and many others) point out, there’s nothing special about that number and no reason to invest it with our faith.

It’s easy to imagine how this point might be infused into the wisdom of the Web: “Facepalm. How many times do I have to remind you? Don’t confuse statistical and substantive significance!” That comment-ready slogan would be just as much a conversation-stopper as correlation does not imply causation, yet people rarely say it. The spurious correlation stands apart from all the other foibles of statistics. It’s the only one that’s gone mainstream. Why?

I wonder if it has to do with what the foible represents. When we mistake correlation for causation, we find a cause that isn’t there. Once upon a time, perhaps, these sorts of errors—false positives—were not so bad at all. If you ate a berry and got sick, you’d have been wise to imbue your data with some meaning. (Better safe than sorry.) Same goes for a red-hot coal: one touch and you’ve got all the correlations that you need. When the world is strange and scary, when nature bullies and confounds us, it’s far worse to miss a link than it is to make one up. A false negative yields the greatest risk.


31
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 16:43:49 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 21/05/2020 12:54:54
VitD insufficiency may contribute to the higher COVID death rate of non-whites in the UK, but I thought this problem had been resolved by dietary advice and supplements in the 1980s when we recognised the incidence of rickets in the British Asian population. 

Whilst COVID may reduce the number of rabid Trump clones in the USA, it would be a pity if it took the lives of many vegetarians.



What you thought is irrelevant.

Vitamin D deficiency is rampant.

The University of Southern California recommends a minumum of 10,000 IU of vitamin D each day and single dose pills are made at that amount, although best to combine with vitamin K2. The Pharmacology of Vitamin D, Including Fortification Strategies states that there is "no evidence of adverse effects from taking 10,000 IU of Vitamin D a day". I take 10,000 IU each day, have for years. Currently, the tolerable upper intake level (UL) in Europe and the US is set at 2000 International Units (IU), equivalent to 50 micrograms per day. However, recent research, particularly from clinical trials, suggests that this should be raised. The CRN scientists state that this could be raised to 10,000 IU (250 micrograms per day).

The reviewers, from the CRN, Mount Sinai Hospital in Toronto and Crieghton University in Nebraska, pooled data from 21 clinical trials using doses ranging from 10 to 2500 micrograms (100,000 IU). The risk assessment also included data from animal studies, some of which used “extraordinarily high doses of vitamin D3”.

“The lack of adverse effects in clinical trials that used intake up to 1250 micrograms [50,000 IU] vitamin D per day and the lack of adverse effects at lower doses inspires a high level of confidence in the data from the strongly designed clinical trials that used 250 micrograms [10,000 IU] vitamin D per day,” said the reviewers.

32
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 16:38:38 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 21/05/2020 15:03:31
Correlation_does_not_imply_causation

''Correlation_does_not_imply_causation'''

That old chestnut? I was expecting that and sure enough you trotted it out right on cue.

So how much money does the cambridge get in donations?


Well to prove you wrong again:-

Vitamin D Determines Severity in COVID-19: Researchers Urge Government to Change Advice
Trinity College Dublin researchers point to changes in government advice in Wales, England and Scotland. Researchers from Trinity College Dublin are calling ...
SciTechDaily
2 days ago
Does Vitamin D help with coronavirus?
GETTING enough Vitamin D is an important part of keeping bones and muscle healthy - and some believe that it could help against coronavirus as well. At least ...
The Sun
Yesterday
Vitamin D and coronavirus: Sunlight and nutrition could help boost immunity | ABC7
video_youtube
ABC7
4 hours ago
Vitamin D deficiency may be linked to more severe cases of COVID-19, studies suggest
Two recent studies have found an association between vitamin D deficiency and COVID-19 mortality rates, suggesting that not having enough of the ...
CTV News
Yesterday
Coronavirus: How vitamin D could help keep you healthy during pandemic
Staying inside and staying healthy can be difficult as gyms are closed.
Boston 25 News
3 days ago
Could Vitamin D be key in beating coronavirus? Report says new study finds link
Get out get some sunshine or eat some salmon and eggs to help beat COVID-19.
PennLive
Yesterday
Study: Vitamin D deficiency may be linked to COVID-19 mortality — how a common vitamin could become pivotal
A new study from researchers at Trinity College Dublin has hypothesized that vitamin D deficiency may be linked to higher mortality rates from COVID-19.
Yahoo Lifestyle
Yesterday

33
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 21/05/2020 12:45:33 »
Quote from: alancalverd on 21/05/2020 12:24:46
Visible light won't do anything but heat the water. However there is an oddity.

We like to use water to calibrate radiotherapy machines, since most of the human body is water and most of the damage done to the target cells is caused by free radicals generated in the aqueous cytoplasm by the ionising radiation. So several national standards laboratories built water calorimeters as the primary measurement standard. Obviously if you only have degassed distilled H2O in the tank, all the absorbed dose will resolve as heat because there are no other chemical endpoints.

We also built graphite calorimeters, using reactor-grade or pyrolytic graphite. Having one tenth of the specific heat capacity of water, they are a lot more sensitive and easier to stabilise, and despite the mess at Windscale, graphite does not suffer Wigner deformation under 1 - 10 MeV photon irradiation.

In my day, everyone was mystified by a consistent 3% discrepancy between the doses measured in graphite and water. That may not sound a lot, but (a) it's on the limit of acceptability for everyday clinical use, and therefore an embarrassment for a standards laboratory and (b) we knew all the contributory parameters (essentially, electrical power input, time, and temperature rise) to better than 0.01%. It seemed to me that water was undergoing some kind of persistent polymerisation.

I never found a more plausible answer. Does anyone out there know what was going on?


I read once it can dissociate water molecules and generate ions in water and can help to sterilize water if a bottle is left in direct sunlight but the article seem to have been removed by internet censors.

34
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 12:42:53 »
Quote from: Colin2B on 21/05/2020 12:36:16
Quote from: profound on 21/05/2020 09:49:43
Big Pharma and their stooges in the media and the government have been actively suppressing this information as it threatens the vast profits from the vaccine/drug a few months away.

Think of all the lives that could have been saved if this information had been disseminated widely...
It hasn’t been suppressed. Big Pharma and their ‘stooges’ (advertising) make a lot of money selling vitamins, and supplies around the UK have been hard to come by.
Medical teams over here are using all the tools available to fight this virus and comparative clinical trials of various treatments are continuing to find the optimum. Currently vitamin D is not showing a big advantage, this may be to the higher levels of nutrition in the UK compared many other countries.
For many years we have been advised by the health service to ensure adequate intake of vitamin D, but not to overdose as that brings its own risks.


I note you totally ignored the research study as it contradicts your established thought patterns.

It has been suppressed. The big money for Big pharma is in patented drugs like remdesvir at $1000 a shot and other crap they trying to flog for covid.

The real reason is of course quite sinister. Here is another study just to upset you.

Vitamin D is associated with a low COVID-19 death rate

New COVID-19 research finds relationships in data from 20 European countries.
By
Amit Malewar
May 9, 2020
Health
Vitamin D is associated with a low COVID-19 death rate

Based on the data from 20 European countries, a new study has discovered low average levels of vitamin D and high numbers of COVID-19 cases and death rates.

Vitamin D regulates the response of white blood cells, preventing them from releasing such a large number of inflammatory cytokines. The COVID-19 virus is known to cause an excess of pro-inflammatory cytokines.

Italy and Spain both countries have reported higher Coronavirus cases. A study reported that patients in both countries had lower vitamin D levels than northern European countries.

The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe.

Dr. Lee Smith, Reader in Physical Activity and Public Health at Anglia Ruskin University, said: “We found a significant crude relationship between average vitamin D levels and the number COVID-19 cases, and particularly COVID-19 mortality rates, per head of population across the 20 European countries.”

“Vitamin D has been shown to protect against acute respiratory infections, and older adults, the group most deficient in vitamin D, are also the ones most seriously affected by COVID-19.”

“A previous study found that 75% of people in institutions, such as hospitals and care homes, were severely deficient in vitamin D. We suggest it would be advisable to perform dedicated studies looking at vitamin D levels in COVID-19 patients with different degrees of disease severity.”


Journal Reference:

    Petre Cristian Ilie, The role of vitamin D in the prevention of coronavirus disease 2019 infection and mortality. DOI: 10.1007/s40520-020-01570-8

35
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 21/05/2020 09:49:43 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 17/04/2020 23:55:45
Quote from: profound on 17/04/2020 22:23:45
Quote from: evan_au on 05/04/2020 01:55:12
Linus Pauling (a Nobel-winning chemist) actively promoted Vitamin C as a cure for cold and flu.
- Studies showed that it didn't help.

Vitamin C & D perform important tasks in the body (Vitamin = VITal AMINe)
- Your body is impaired if you don't have enough of them
- But if you have enough for the biochemical tasks done by each vitamin, your body will work fine
- Taking 10x the necessary dose just produces more expensive urine.

Quote from: OP
virus-infected patients are getting well in a matter of days
Around 80% of COVID-19 patients will get well in a matter of days, with no medical attention at all.
Another 15% of patients will get well in a matter of days, with hospital attention.

So you have to ask:
- Does it make the 15% recover faster, or need less intensive care?
- Does it make outcomes better for the 5% who need more intensive care?
- The way to find out is with a placebo-controlled trial
- You can't really document a trial like this with the 80% of people who are isolated at home
- Has a placebo-controlled trial been done?

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo-controlled_study


When you are having difficult breathing then remember about placebo controlled trials luxury.
Did you know that vitamin D is used as a rat poison?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodenticide#Hypercalcemia

People are not rats.

Anyway 3 studies came out in April and May showing that vitamin D prevents DEATH from Covid19 THE HIGHER the level of vitamin D. Big Pharma and their stooges in the media and the government have been actively suppressing this information as it threatens the vast profits from the vaccine/drug a few months away.

Of the 212 (100.0%) cases of Covid-2019, 49 (23.1%) were identified mild, 59 (27.8%) were ordinary, 56 (26.4%) were severe, and 48 (22.6%) were critical (Table 1).
Mean serum (OH)D level was 23.8 ng/ml. Serum (OH)D level of cases with mild outcome was 31.2 ng/ml, 27.4 ng/ml for ordinary, 21.2 ng/ml for severe, and 17.1 ng/ml for critical. Serum (OH)D levels were statistically significant among clinical outcomes (p<0.001).

 A total of 55 (25.9%) cases had normal Vitamin D status, majority of which (85.5%) were identified mild. A total of 80 (37.7%) cases had insufficient Vitamin D status, majority of which (43.8%) were ordinary. Cases identified as Vitamin D-deficient were 77 (36.3%), majority of which were severe (40.3%).

Vitamin D status is significantly associated with clinical outcomes (p<0.001).
A multinomial logistic regression analysis reported that the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than an ordinary outcome were approximately 1.63 times (OR=0.614, p=0.007) for each standard deviation increase in serum (OH)D (Table 2).

Also, for each standard deviation increase in serum (OH)D, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a severe outcome were approximately 7.94 times (OR=0.126, p<0.001) while interestingly, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome rather than a critical outcome were approximately more than 19.61 times (OR=0.051, p<0.001).

More generally, the odds of having a mild clinical outcome increase when serum (OH)D level increases. Alternatively, the odds of having a critical outcome increase when serum (OH)D level decreases.

 This means that serum (OH)D level in the body could account for the clinical outcomes of the patients infected with Covid-2019. An increase in serum (OH)D level in the body could either improve clinical outcomes or mitigate worst (severe to critical) outcomes. On the other hand, a decrease in serum (OH)D level in the body could worsen clinical outcomes of Covid-2019 patients. In this case, Vitamin D supplementation may play an important role to raise 1,25- dihydroxyvitamin D [1,25(OH)2D], the biologically active form of Vitamin D in the blood.

In conclusion this study provides substantial information to clinicians and health policy-makers. Vitamin D supplementation could possibly improve clinical outcomes of patients infected with Covid-2019 based on increasing odds ratio of having a mild outcome when serum (OH)D level increases. Further research may conduct randomized controlled trials and large population studies to evaluate this recommendation.
References

    Sohrabi, C., Alsafi, Z., ONeiU, N., Khan, M., Kerwan, A., Al-Jabir, A., ... & Agha, R. (2020). World Health Organization declares global emergency: A review of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVJD-19). International Journal of Surger
    Lei, G. S., Zhang, C., Cheng, B. H., & Lee, C. H. (2017). Mechanisms of action of vitamin D as supplemental therapy for Pneumocystis pneumonia. Antimicrobial agents and chemotherapy, 61(10), e01226-17. y.
    Rondanelli, M., Miccono, A., Lamburghini, S., Avanzato, I., Riva, A., Allegrini, P., ... & Perna, S. (2018). Self-care for common colds: the pivotal role of vitamin D, vitamin C, zinc, and Echinacea in three main immune interactive clusters (physical barriers, innate and adaptive immunity) involved during an episode of common colds 一Practical advice on dosages and on the time to take these nutrients/botanicals in order to prevent or treat common colds. Evidence-Based Complementary and Alternative Medicine, 2018.
    Cantorna, M. T. (2010). Mechanisms underlying the effect of vitamin D on the immune system. Proceedings of the Nutrition Society, 69(3), 286-289.
    Sharifi, A., Vahedi, H., Nedjat, S., Rafiei, H., & Hosseinzadeh-Attar, M. J. (2019). Effect of single-dose injection of vitamin D on immune cytokines in ulcerative colitis patients: a randomized placebo-controlled trial. Apmis, 127(10), 681-687.
    Wimalawansa, S. J. (2020). Global epidemic of coronavirus--COVID-19: What we can do to minimize risks. European XXXXX, 7(3), 432-438.
    Grant, W. B., Lahore, H., McDonnell, S. L., Baggerly, C. A., French, C. B., Aliano, J. L., & Bhattoa, H. P. (2020). Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths.姓/rien/s, 12(4), 988.
    Braiman, M. (2020). Latitude Dependence of the COVID-19 Mortality Rate—A Possible Relationship to Vitamin D Deficiency?. Axx mlable at SSRN3561958.
    Wang, Y., Liu, Y., Liu, L., Wang, X., Luo, N., & Ling, L. (2020). Clinical outcome of 55 asymptomatic cases at the time of hospital admission infected with SARS-Coronavirus-2 in Shenzhen, China. The Journal of infectious diseases.
    Holick, M. F. (2009). Vitamin D status: measurement, interpretation, and clinical application. Annals of epidemiology, 19(2), 73-78.


Think of all the lives that could have been saved if this information had been disseminated widely...

36
Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / What happens to water if you flash very intense light into water?
« on: 21/05/2020 09:41:36 »
What happens to water if you shine very intense light into water from a strobe flash unit.

The 1 liter of water will be in a highly reflective container 1 liter container and the light from a high intensity strobe light will flash from a xenon tube will flash into the ordinary water through an aperture  at the rate of 1 flash per second for 30 minutes.

I tried to google this but all the information seems to have been removed or irrelevant items come up.

I want to know if these pulses of light will do anything to the water.

37
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 17/04/2020 22:23:45 »
Quote from: evan_au on 05/04/2020 01:55:12
Linus Pauling (a Nobel-winning chemist) actively promoted Vitamin C as a cure for cold and flu.
- Studies showed that it didn't help.

Vitamin C & D perform important tasks in the body (Vitamin = VITal AMINe)
- Your body is impaired if you don't have enough of them
- But if you have enough for the biochemical tasks done by each vitamin, your body will work fine
- Taking 10x the necessary dose just produces more expensive urine.

Quote from: OP
virus-infected patients are getting well in a matter of days
Around 80% of COVID-19 patients will get well in a matter of days, with no medical attention at all.
Another 15% of patients will get well in a matter of days, with hospital attention.

So you have to ask:
- Does it make the 15% recover faster, or need less intensive care?
- Does it make outcomes better for the 5% who need more intensive care?
- The way to find out is with a placebo-controlled trial
- You can't really document a trial like this with the 80% of people who are isolated at home
- Has a placebo-controlled trial been done?

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Placebo-controlled_study


When you are having difficult breathing then remember about placebo controlled trials luxury.

38
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Can Cataract be Cured without Surgery?
« on: 06/04/2020 22:16:22 »
Quote from: Monox D. I-Fly on 03/10/2018 03:36:18
Yesterday I went to doctor and it was revealed that I have cataract. I was shocked so I forgot to ask some important questions. What caused cataract? I mean, what lifestyle/habit can trigger cataract? Can cataract be cured without undergoing surgery? Because honestly, I am scared. Can carrot reduce or cure it? The doctor gave me some vitamin B-complex. Is consuming a huge amount of food which contains those enough?


Red Led therapy for a few seconds could help. you need to research it on google and youtube which shows the devices and applications...You can buy them of ebay/amazon..

39
Physiology & Medicine / Re: If I am vaccinated, are anti-vaxers still putting me at risk?
« on: 05/04/2020 17:15:39 »
Quote from: chris on 03/03/2020 17:30:29
Quote from: alancalverd on 03/03/2020 13:53:43
they can't infect you with whatever you were vaccinated against.

Regrettably, they potentially can. Not all vaccines work in everybody, or produce a long-term effect. In our laboratory, we are now regularly seeing mumps cases in previously-vaccinated individuals who presumably did not respond with a protective immune response to their MMR.



Something wrong here. Everyone knows vaccines make you invincible.
So why should non-vaccinated people effect you? What are you scared of?

Are you the smoker who feels more secure if other people smoke too and forever offering cigarettes?

40
Physiology & Medicine / Re: Why has high dose Vit C and Vit D treatment been ignored for covid19?
« on: 05/04/2020 14:41:23 »
Quote from: Kryptid on 04/04/2020 23:38:32
Please don't copy and paste articles from other websites (especially not without citing the source properly).


Sure look:-


https://vitamindwiki.com/VitaminDWiki 


 Look under Pneumonia, Respiratory, Breathing and  Tuberculous..

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