41

That CAN'T be true! / Re: How long should a Vaccine Trial take?

« on: 02/03/2021 22:33:46 »

The average length of stay in old folks' nursing homes is 13 weeks. 100% die eventually, so if only 25% die after receiving COVID vaccine, we seem to have found the elixir of life.

About 30% of human pregnancies abort spontaneously.

So: very few people understand statistics, but bad journalists can still make a living.

 

42

Plant Sciences, Zoology & Evolution / Re: what do we still not know we got from there?

« on: 02/03/2021 17:43:30 »

We know the universe had a beginning

No. We have some evidence consistent with a big bang but no reason to believe there was no precursor.

43

That CAN'T be true! / Re: Final evidence of a rigged election in 2020?

« on: 02/03/2021 17:41:17 »

Of course. This is GCSE, and nobody is allowed to fail. 

44

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What do we do about the orbiting space junk?

« on: 02/03/2021 15:51:16 »

As with most aerodynamics, it's all about form factors. A small bolt will have a larger surface to mass ratio than a large bolt of the same general design, so will ablate more rapidly in the upper atmosphere, and a deorbiting cargo door (a friend had one fly open on his 757 freighter recently, and the DC10 was wont to shed the shed from time to time) may either burn up or float relatively gently to earth depending on its initial angle of attack, whereas most of a large bolt may survive the trip and impact at very high speed, like a  metallic meteorite.

45

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What do we do about the orbiting space junk?

« on: 02/03/2021 13:51:51 »

I think the main problem is tracking the small, high density bits. Rocket casings and suchlike will have a big radar profile and one of Buzz Aldrin's gloves (if it hasn't burned up yet) won't do a lot of damage, but a 2 x 1/4 (note the US dimensions) nut and bolt travelling at 8 km/s has 5 times the kinetic energy of a rifle bullet.

46

Just Chat! / Re: Is there a universal moral standard?

« on: 02/03/2021 09:53:46 »

Alternatively, you can train the machine using reinforced learning, given that you can provide a virtual environment accurate enough to represent parts of the real world which is considered relevant to the application.

And look what happened to the 737 Max. One jammed sensor and several hundred dead. But apparently cheaper than putting a warning in the pilot's notes and spending an extra hour on type training.

Back in the days of Tridents, a friend was flying a Trident 3 from Belfast to London when he noticed "it felt a bit heavier than usual". Looked at the fuel ticket and saw that he had been given the fuel for a much thirstier T2, so he called back to Belfast who called the next guy who had just departed in a T2 for Paris, checked his fuel ticket, and diverted to Birmingham rather than ditch in the Channel. Not sure how you could program that into anything except three humans, never mind getting Birmingham Control to reorganise all their traffic. 

47

That CAN'T be true! / Re: Final evidence of a rigged election in 2020?

« on: 02/03/2021 09:36:37 »

So the evidence of a rigged election seems to boil down to a wholly improbable and unsubstantiated cock and bull story about a canine serial impostor, with no indication of which way she may or may not have voted, or how.

I guess that's marginally more important than police racism or presidential incompetence, in the minds of Republican morons. Never underestimate the stupidity of the electorate.

48

That CAN'T be true! / Re: Final evidence of a rigged election in 2020?

« on: 01/03/2021 23:48:18 »

The reports never listed not enough evidence to know they made claims that the suggestion had been investigated and proven false, which is actually fake news.

GCSE English 2021
1. How many negatives in that sentence?  (5 marks)
2. What does it mean? (5 marks)
3. How does it make you feel? (no marks, but we have to look as though we care)
4. Compose an apology, rebuttal, explanation or defence, whichever seems appropriate. (10 marks)

49

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What do we do about the orbiting space junk?

« on: 01/03/2021 23:40:06 »

The idea that 8 km/s isn't fast enough to induce incandescence is wrong.

Which is why nobody suggested it.

small things are more affected by the thin "atmosphere" up there

Depends on the density of the thing. A steel bolt has loads of kinetic energy and very little drag, whereas a spent first rocket stage is huge (lots of aerodynamic drag) and relatively light, so quickly slowed down and deorbited by the wispy fringe of the atmosphere.

50

Just Chat! / Re: Is there a universal moral standard?

« on: 01/03/2021 23:19:57 »

The understanding of the universal moral standard becomes a necessity when we are engaging AGI and genetic engineering. Economic competition is forcing us to get there sooner, rather than later.

No. What we need to do is to impress a human  moral standard on  semiautonomous machines.

A classic example of not doing so is the use of "altitude hold" in a simple autopilot. Most of the time this just saves you having to make continuous minor adjustments of power and trim as you burn fuel, fly into a different weather system, or the passengers start walking around. But there is a dangerous temptation to let "George" fly the plane in strong turbulence, because his reactions are quicker and he doesn't get tired. This can  be fatal. If you hit a strong downdraft, George will point the nose of the plane upwards to regain altitude and you may stall. Unfortunately the strong downdrafts are found in dense cloud, so the plane will quite suddenly flip, spin, or do a dozen ballistic things all at once and topple the gyro horizon, making recovery to aerodynamic flight quite a conundrum and in some cases impossible.  The proper thing to do is to fly by hand in strong turbulence, accepting that you will not maintain constant speed or altitude, but simply keep the wings generating lift even when the meal trays hit the ceiling, in a compromise with the forces of nature. Given the choice between the unpalatable and the unacceptable, you must accept the unpalatable to survive.

Which takes us back to the "immoral but right" decisions of conflict, which cannot be universal because the rest of the universe is at best indifferent to human life, and at worst, opposed to it. 

51

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What do we do about the orbiting space junk?

« on: 01/03/2021 22:51:08 »

It's the right answer. Meteors are not in earth orbit. space junk mostly is. Now and again a bit falls to earth but, far from "nothing else",  stuff happens en route, like low-temperature ablation because the orbit decays gradually whereas meteors plunge into the atmosphere in travel in pretty much a straight line and convert their kinetic energy to heat very quickly.

52

Physics, Astronomy & Cosmology / Re: What do we do about the orbiting space junk?

« on: 01/03/2021 18:50:02 »

And also because most of the space junk is in orbit around the earth, unlike the classic meteor showers which orbit the sun.

53

That CAN'T be true! / Re: Final evidence of a rigged election in 2020?

« on: 01/03/2021 18:45:58 »

Trump would've built the wall, if he hadn't been stopped from doing it.

Nobody stopped him. Quite a bit if it is still there. Problem with a boundary wall, of course, is that it is useless until it is complete. Or somebody invents the ladder.

54

Just Chat! / Re: Are these the World's Worst Science Jokes?

« on: 01/03/2021 18:41:39 »

That certainly ranks among the world's worst, but "science" and "joke" seem to be absent.

55

Cells, Microbes & Viruses / Re: How can we test new vaccines quickly?

« on: 01/03/2021 18:32:21 »

Too quickly for what? How long should you wait before fixing a problem? How many deaths before you act? How ill would you like to be before taking the medicine that would have prevented it?

Some people resent the skill and success of others, but society would be better off without such miserable failures so I'm happy to let them die, as long as they don't infect the rest of us.

56

Chemistry / Re: Is there hydrogen in space?

« on: 01/03/2021 16:30:19 »

In principle you could collect interstellar hydrogen  - or anything else you can find - ionise it with your nuclear electrical generator, and use it as a propellant, with no need for oxygen. 

57

Chemistry / Re: Is there hydrogen in space?

« on: 01/03/2021 14:55:28 »

Yes, but not much - that's why it's called "space".

58

COVID-19 / Re: Does the coronavirus mutate the same way around the world?

« on: 01/03/2021 14:54:54 »

The evidence suggests that mutations are entirely random. The success of any mutation clearly depends on its viability and infectivity, which will possibly vary between host populations.

A glaring oddity seems to be the apparent vulnerability of Asian  descendants living in the UK compared with the surprisingly low infection rates in India.

59

Just Chat! / Re: The problem with Pascal's wager

« on: 01/03/2021 12:20:52 »

Science: acceptance of robust explanatory hypotheses that have not been disproved by experiment

Belief: acceptance of hypotheses in the absence of evidence

Faith: acceptance of hypotheses in spite of evidence to the contrary

Does Pascal's god really approve of those who don't seek evidence, or are unconvinced by evidence to the contrary? Seems  unlikely, given that the species was created to "Rule over the fish in the sea and the birds in the sky and over every living creature that moves on the ground." (Genesis 1:28).

Flight PK8303 killed around 100 people last summer. One of the survivors said "God saved us."

60

Just Chat! / Re: The Twilight Zone or Doctor Who, which is superior?

« on: 01/03/2021 11:37:08 »

Which thinking man did you have in mind? Moving the Hot Tottie slot from DW's sidekick to centerstage was good marketing, but Joan Bakewell's title of Thinking Man's Crumpet has never been seriously challenged.