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What is the chance of an abdominal aortic aneurysm rupturing?The chance of rupture is low if an AAA is small. As a rule, the risk of rupture increases with increasing size. This is much like a balloon - the larger you blow it up, the greater the pressure, the greater the chance it will burst. The diameter of an AAA can be measured by an ultrasound scan. The following gives overall risk figures for the size (diameter) of the aneurysm:40 mm - 55 mm - about a 1 in 100 chance of rupture per year. 55 mm - 60 mm - about a 10 in 100 chance of rupture per year. 60 mm - 69 mm - about a 15 in 100 chance of rupture per year. 70 mm - 79 mm - about a 35 in 100 chance of rupture per year. 80 mm or more - about a 50 in 100 chance of rupture per year. Should everyone with an abdominal aortic aneurysm have surgery?The short answer is no. Surgical repair of an AAA is a major operation and carries risks. A small number of people will die during, or shortly after, the operation. If you have a small AAA, the risk of death caused by surgery is higher than the risk of rupture. Therefore, surgery is usually not advised if you have an AAA less than 50 mm wide. However, regular ultrasound scans will normally be advised to see if it gets larger over time.Surgery is commonly advised if you develop an AAA larger than 50 mm. For these larger aneurysms the risk of rupture is usually higher than the risk of surgery. However, if your general state of health is poor, or if you have certain other medical conditions, this may increase the risk if you have surgery. So, in some cases the decision to operate may be a difficult one.