[Mr. Blonde (OP)]

The past few days I've awoke to incredibly horrid news that the Avian Flu is going to evolve. Then it will directly transfer from human to human infecting a huge portion of the mass population if an outbreak isnt contained. What do you guys know of this horrible news?! Will it happen, because its suposed to blow SARS out of the water. [xx(]

[MayoFlyFarmer]

see my post in "bird flu" []

Are YOUR mice nude? []

[chimera]

http://www.who.int/csr/don/2004_01_14/en/

Well, if it's as contageous as the 1918 influenza pandemic, but far more lethal than that one (75% mortality vs. only 5-8% in 1918), you can see that the possible threat is huge.

Take into account there was hardly any aviation in 1918 to speak of (tourism), which could bring the disease here faster than the news you read about it (that slightly sweaty guy next to you in the train coughing friendly in your general direction just got off the plane from Thailand or Vietnam?) and you might have some serious problems, indeed.

[Tyson Vaughan]

I have some questions about the avian flu.  

(1) I keep hearing about how the dreaded inflection point in the evolution of this virus would be if it finds itself in a human host along with a conventional flu virus, and through some kind of viral sex, picks up the right genes to enable human-to-human infectiousness.  However, I've also heard that, actually, all influenza viruses are avian in origin.  At any rate, H5N1 isn't the only avian flu virus out there.  Therefore, isn't it possible that H5N1 could mutate, or borrow human-targeting genes from another flu virus, while within a bird host?  

(2) I've read that the mortality rates of 1918 H1N1-type viruses (including the current H5N1) are 10 times higher than conventional flu for children and the elderly, and 10,000 times higher for healthy adults, due to the "cytokine storm" reaction of a healthy immune system, which attacks the body's own tissue.  If this is true, then...
A. In the case of an H5N1 pandemic, shouldn't we alter our usual regime of inoculating and giving anti-virals to just children and the elderly?  
B. Also, if one somehow found oneself infected with H5N1, wouldn't it be prudent to endeavor to suppress one's own immune response?  Are there any drugs that do this specifically?  (Alcohol comes to mind -- and red wine also contains the bonus of resveratrol, which allegedly has antiviral properties -- but it obviously brings with it other considerations.)



__
Is "tired old cliche" one?
-Steven Wright

[VAlibrarian]

The possibility of a Flu virus pandemic is disturbing, yes. If you read what Mike Leavitt has written on the subject (he is the U.S. government official in charge of our preparations for such an event) you will note that he is actually refreshingly honest. He admits that we do not yet have a great plan, because medical resources do not exist that have a short enough turnaround time to make people safe. In other words, the flu virus has not yet altered itself into a form that is easily transmitted between humans- and we cannot create an effective vaccine against it because we do not know what it will look like if and when it changes.
     In the worst case, we could end up with many millions dying all across our planet in a matter of months. Obviously HIV already is killing many millions of people- but in slow motion with a few million each year. Flu would be different.Because of the airborne transmission, schools would be closed all over the world and people would avoid other people, even if they were wearing masks.
    I find it disturbing that there is still very little public understanding of all this. There are even people writing to newspapers and magazines asking what the big fuss is all about and why is the government trying to frighten them. Well, the government is not trying to frighten, it is struggling to get a little information into some very thick heads.

chris wiegard

[joni1]

hi mr blonde
    it is not profitable to affread of this probllem, problems are up coming and going in humans life it a part of life so no need to be affraid, although you have to search solutinns of these kind of problems here are some way to protect yourself are described, serch the proper solution and information about influenza viruses look url-
  newbielink:http://www.drugdelivery.ca/bird-flu.aspx [nonactive] you will find answer of youre all problems.

[cure]

Unfortunately many goverments are afraid of a pandemia, and they are stocking meds for a possible situation.
Peple all over the world must learn how to protect from bird flu and what to do at a possible contamination
you can check these websites for more information

newbielink:http://www.tamiflu.comm [nonactive]
newbielink:http://www.bbonlinepharmacy.com/category.asp?kid=29 [nonactive]

regards
 

[Andrew K Fletcher]

http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=6571.0

Videos of the Avian Flue Symposium

The plan from W.H.O is to climb under your nearest dinner table and put your hands on your head and hope that the virus never darkens your door. Rather concerned about the inherent lack of any positive message from these video's from the Leading Experts on Avian Infuenza.

Andrew K Fletcher

[Andrew K Fletcher]

 Today, 2008-01-24 11:44:03 Post #1 



From: Amphur Sattahip
Member No.: 15,398



 Bird flu outbreak in Thailand for first time in 10 months

The deadly H5N1 virus has killed 400 chickens in central Thailand, in the first outbreak of bird flu in 10 months, livestock officials said Thursday.

The outbreak was confirmed by laboratory tests after the poultry deaths were reported Monday by a farm in the Chumsaeng district of Nakhon Sawan province, about 210 kilometers (130 miles) north of the capital, Bangkok, said Somboon Srisupthep, head of the province's livestock department.

About 50,000 chickens being raised at the farm were expected to be slaughtered later in the day to contain the virus, Somboon said.

The outbreak is the first in Thailand since March 18, 2007, when about 50 ducks and chickens were found dead in northeastern Thailand.

Bird flu remains hard for people to catch, but health experts worry the virus could mutate into a form that passes easily among humans, sparking a pandemic. So far, most human cases have been linked to contact with infected birds.

At least 219 people have died worldwide from the virus, according to the World Health Organization.

Source: AP - 24 January 2008

See also reports in this thread.

New bird flu outbreak in Nakhon Sawan

The deadly bird flu virus has killed 300 chickens in Nakhon Sawan's Chumsaeng district, the first in ten months.

The outbreak at Sri Prai Farm was confirmed by laboratory tests after the poultry deaths were reported Monday.

As of now, about 20,000 of 50,000 chickens were already culled and 45,000 others were expected to be slaughtered today to contain the virus.

The farm which supplied the fowls to Saha Farm company has four breeding houses and the virus was found in the second breeding house. This was the second time that the virus was found in this farm.

The Livestock department is expected to cull chickens in one to five kilometres radius from the farm.

Meanwhile Pol Col Damrong Phetpong, a senior provincial police chief, said that police will set up checkpoints to ensure that there was no transfer of chickens from the area.

Source: The Nation - 24 January 2008
 
Of the 351 human cases recorded since H5N1 re-emerged in Asia in 2003 and spread to parts of Africa and the Middle East, 219 have died, according to the World Health Organization (WHO).

The virus does not currently spread easily between humans, but scientists fear it could mutate into a form that would trigger a global pandemic, killing millions of people.

Source: Reuters - 24 January 2008
http://www.thaivisa.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=165739

[that mad man]

The scientist have been fearing that Bird Flu could mutate into a deadly human to human spreading form for many years and yet so far it has not.

I honestly think that a lot of the scaremongering is just hype and designed to increase the profits of the so called "anti viral" producers. The governments are spending millions on stocking up on drugs that may not do much if H5N1 suddenly starts spreading from human to human.
Tamiflu is not a cure but a medicine (if I remember its not even an antiviral) that can ease the symptoms, and, it is not guaranteed to work in all cases. If it did then the people who have died from H5N1 would have been saved.

So, why are governments stocking up on drugs that may not work, is it out of panic?

Why are people being advised to buy a personal supply of expensive drugs that may not work from dodgy "on-line" pharmacies, is it about scaremongering and profit?

I notice 2 of the above posts are about scaring the individual into getting their own private expensive supply.

[Bored chemist]

Don't forget that we are all descended from people who survived the 1918 pandemic. Surviving pandemics is a trait we will all have inherited. I'm not saying it won't happpen or even that it won't be very unpleasant indeed. I just don't think it's the end of the world.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

If the 1918 pandemic is anything to go by with it's far reaching infection rate affecting many of the countries in the world with devastating consequences, cause predominantly by having too many people in close proximity to each other during the war and the massive movement of people also involved at the time, we should take this threat to our lives very seriously indeed. Especially now we have a far more efficient means of distribution of the virus with global flight and shipping coupled with illegal immigration, one can only guess at what will inevitably be the outcome should such an unforgiving disease take hold of the population.

The governments are right to invest money into research. However as these virus are known to mutate it is highly unlikely that stockpiling any form of treatment will insure us against death.

What will happen is that once the virus has took hold, the investment of having a team in place to find a way of combating the virus may at best serve to accelerate a response. How effective any response may be is another matter.

If we zip back to the sweating sickness in the Tudor period, which I suspect may have been a similar viral infection, antibiotics, vaccines and the like were not in place. The results of the disease were impressive wiping out the rich and the poor and the powerful and insignificant, knowing no boundaries it wreaked havoc until the unusually foul air was swept away in a tempest.

Humidity, damp and cold provide the ideal breading ground for death. Thailand has very high humidity! Could humidity lower our resistance to infectious organisms? YES IT CAN!

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Indian battles bird flu, UN sounds alarm over Bangladesh
23 hours ago

GANGANAGAR, India (AFP) — Bodies of chickens were left to rot Thursday in India as the country battled its worst bird flu outbreak while a UN agency warned the virus also posed a health threat in neighbouring Bangladesh.

The disease has already spread to over half of India's West Bengal state whose government called the outbreak of the deadly H5N1 strain of avian flu a "crisis."

Drenching rain that turned rural dirt roads in West Bengal into muddy rivers forced a temporary halt to culling Thursday, dealing another setback to the fight against India's third and by far its worse bird flu outbreak.

Later when the rains stopped, the killing of birds resumed but villagers staged protests as culling teams refused to bury dead poultry.

"They're leaving the dead poultry on farms and along roads," said villager Munirul Sheikh in Ganganagar, 200 kilometres (120 miles) north of Kolkata.
http://afp.google.com/article/ALeqM5iEk0fN6c7G9Xi16Dtxor_Va0IUUQ

[Andrew K Fletcher]

WHO confirms H5N1 deaths in Vietnam, Indonesia
Jan 24, 2008 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) today confirmed that two more people have died of H5N1 avian influenza, a 34-year-old man from Vietnam and a 30-year-old man from Indonesia. Both cases were reported previously.

The Vietnamese man, from Tuyen Quang province, about 50 miles northwest of Hanoi, got sick on Jan 10, was hospitalized 6 days later, and died on Jan 18, according to a WHO statement. He is now confirmed as the country's 102nd H5N1 case-patient and 48th death. He was previously reported to be 32 years old.

Investigators determined the man had had contact with sick and dead poultry before he became ill, the WHO said. He had slaughtered and cooked chickens and geese on his backyard farm, the Associated Press reported yesterday. The WHO said animal health officials tested poultry from his village and found they were infected with the H5N1 virus.

The WHO also announced that a 30-year-old Indonesian man who was confirmed yesterday as the country's 120th-case patient died today. His age was previously reported as 32. His death raises the WHO's fatality total for Indonesia to 98.

The man was from Tangerang, a suburb of Jakarta. He fell ill on Jan 13 and was hospitalized 6 days later, according to yesterday's WHO statement. Investigators are trying to determine the source of his infection. The man was a sales executive at an automobile company, Indonesia's National Committee for Avian Influenza Control and Pandemic Influenza Preparedness reported on Jan 22.

The two deaths push the WHO's global H5N1 fatality total to 221, and the Vietnamese man's illness raises the global case count to 353.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

From The TimesJanuary 11, 2008

Protection zone set up as deadly bird flu found at swan reserve

Valerie Elliott, Countryside Editor
Three dead swans that were found in a bird sanctuary in Dorset had the deadly avian flu virus H5N1, it was confirmed yesterday.

[RenRen]

Believe it or not, all of these news are good news. It means that epidemiologists all over the world are using their surveillance systems to keep track of H5N1, and other flu viruses. We (because I'm one of the epidemiologists) can then keep everyone in the loop on what viruses are coming up, where, when, and, sometimes, how. I would be more worried if I didn't hear news of where the virus is, knowing that it's as pathogenic (not really too virulent right now) as it is.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

RenRen thanks for your input and welcome to NS

I agree that the news is doing a grand job of identifying the locations and outcomes of localised outbreaks. As an epidemiologist what are you thoughts and this scenario: Hypothetical Human cells are cloned using chick embryo. Cloned cells become contaminated with h5n1 after they have been successfully introduced into the target recipient, possibly as stem cells or indeed a cloned heart valve or some other means of entry into the recipient. The virus takes hold after the patient returns back to normal daily routines, possibly by means of a carrier. The virus now mutates into a more virulent strain because of the mutual dna between the human host and the chick donor. A further mutation takes place so that the virus can spread between humans to humans and humans to birds, now the virus becomes a pandemic using both the human population and the avian population to spread.

Possibility? Or Nonsense?

[lolaryan]

As far as I know, just because we are descended from individuals who survived the Spanish flu pandemic; it does not mean that we have immunity. Although we do get a certain number of antibodies passed from mother to baby (through breast milk) these only give a very short lived protection. If that particular type of H1N1/Spanish re-emerged very few individuals would be immune. In the case of Spanish flu it was the immune response that did the actual damage.
Large scale vaccination programs would probably not be effective for a number of reasons;

1. By the time enough vaccine was made, the virus might have mutated (as it is an unstable RNA virus) as the vaccine would would not be as effective.

2. The logistics of carrying out such a wide spread vaccination program; the last time that this was achieved was the smallpox vaccination program.

Pandemics tend to happen in three waves and the northern and southern hemispheres tend to have different flu seasons. I think that people are not really worried as this is old news and they have heard the "we are all going to die" many times before. People also do not know how many people die annually in a normal year and tend to think that the flu is like a bad cold.

[Andrew K Fletcher]

Lolaryan

Complacency appears to be the norm for most people when it comes down to risks from infectious organisms. In the U.K. we have some pretty serious outbreaks in hospitals and nursing homes, yet visitors are allowed free access to many of them and this means that people are often exposed to virus and fungal infections and then go home to spread the germs among their family and friends. My family has first hand experience of the lack of basic hygiene in hospitals having witnessed the demise of my grandfather, father, wife’s sister and mother, all of who contracted MRSA. Granddad went one better and got scabies from the Local Hospital. You would think that we have learned that basic hygiene is of paramount importance in containing a pandemic, yet we appear to have learned very little since the last pandemic.

The only people that have definitely built up a complete resistance to the next pandemic are those that have died already!

[lolaryan]

People are complacent about the spread of certain infectious diseases as for many years it appeared that antibiotics had conquered all and people do not realise that our arsenal is quickly becoming ineffective and once bacterial resistance becomes a real problem even the simplest surgery will become much more dangerous. The importance of following instructions and finishing courses of antibiotics also needs to be stressed to the general public. Sorry for the hijack, oops!