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quote:Originally posted by neilepPerhaps it's just simmering at gas mark 1 ?...and the whole damn thing is a total earthly natural process and that we have only a sopucon of effect after all !...if any !
quote:I don't think the figures on global warming are open to interpretation. It is an established fact that global temperatures have risen by 0.6°C over the past century. It is also an established fact that carbon dioxide levels have risen by about 100 parts per million over the same period due to human activity. It is a matter of the basic laws of physics that an increase in carbon dioxide will trap more heat in the Earth's atmosphere, which is why almost no respectable and independent scientist doubts the causal link between these two established facts.
quote:Originally posted by SimmerI think what Sington was suggesting was that global dimming has been countering the effects of global warming and, as particulate emissions fall, the full effects of global warming will become apparent.
quote:Originally posted by another_someone[brThe reality is that I doubt we really have the expertise to understand the secondary effects of much of what we do to the atmosphere, which is why I am dubious about all those who insist that we must do this or that to avoid Armageddon – we just don't know if doing this or that will have a secondary effect that will simply bring a different Armageddon upon us.
quote:Originally posted by SimmerI think the motive for trying to limit airborne particulates was their direct effect on human health than any global environmental considerations.
quote:Originally posted by neilepDo you think it is reasonable to assume that all this global warming/dimming is not human made but just a natural process of this planet ?..and that all the reports and endless studies are down to bad science ?...after all..we can not even predict local weather accurately let alone the global climate !
quote:Originally posted by Ian33Perhaps your suffering from a little global dimming Neil ? Climate models are both accurate and scientists are using the best technology available to gather the data. You might not be able to predict local weather, but others in the Met Office can.I luv2dance
quote:Originally posted by DoctorBeaverTo which of the Gaia hypotheses are you referring? There are numerous versions: some of which are broadly in line with scientific thinking, some most definitely not. Does the global ecosystem affect microsystems or vice versa? There are too many variables and unknowns for anyone to know exactly how the whole thing fits together.
quote:Originally posted by ROBERTHi DoctorBeaver,by "Gaia Hypothesis" I was referring to the theory that planet Earth is capable of a degree of homeostasis: can self-regulate, (not teleologically)."Global Dimming" counteracting "Global Warming" seems to be a mechanism by which the Earth could self-regulate temperature.As the Earth warms due to increased levels of greenhouse gas, ("Global Warming"), increased levels of water vapour enter the atmosphere from the warming oceans. The increased water vapour causes increased cloud cover, which reduces the amout of sunlight reaching the Earth's surface, ("Global Dimming"), so counteracting the temperature rise due to "Global Warming".So "Global Dimming" coinciding with "Global Warming" could be evidence that Dr Lovelock's theory is correct.
quote:Any system that is capable of evolution and that is unable to self regulate, will inevitably be unstable, and thus will mutate, and continue to mutate, until it reaches a point where it evolves into a system of self regulation, which will prevent (or at least slow down) further evolution, and thus remain (at least for a time) the stable state of that system.
quote:Originally posted by DoctorBeaverIf you are saying that all systems will eventually reach a state of self-regulation, even if only temporarily, then I agree. However, self-regulation is very different from stable. Evolution is based on mutation & instability. The only truly stable state for any system is entropic stability where nothing would ever happen. As the ecology of the Earth is not a closed system, I don't see how that could ever come about.
quote:I don't think there is a huge gulf between what you are saying and what I have said
quote:an asteroid is internally more impervious to its environment than a full sized planet such as the Earth
quote:Originally posted by DoctorBeaver quote:an asteroid is internally more impervious to its environment than a full sized planet such as the EarthI'm not sure I understand what you mean by that.
quote:So, ultimately, maybe the comment should be regarded as erroneous.
quote:Do you think it is reasonable to assume that all this global warming/dimming is not human made but just a natural process of this planet ?..and that all the reports and endless studies are down to bad science ?...after all..we can not even predict local weather accurately let alone the global climate !
quote:Originally posted by Solvay_1927But it's kind of dangerous to assume it's not human made. My motto is "better safe than sorry". If it's possible (though by no means proven) that we can slow the progress of global warming/dimming (and/or reduce its impact) by taking appropriate action now, I say let's take such action. (Er, provided there's no strong evidence that such action might actually make things worse in some other way, which is another question we don't know the answer to...)
quote:You ask that we invest heavily in untried and untested solutions ...
quote:Originally posted by Solvay_1927Perhaps you can convince me why actions like reducing our dependence on fossil fuels may prove detrimental in the long run ... ?
quote:Originally posted by Solvay_1927I just think that investing a little more (than the current miniscule amount) on researching and building alternative energy resources is unlikely to lead to major problems for the human race, whereas it might, possibly, help us to avert environmental problems in the future. (Are you suggesting that wind power, for example, is "untried and untested"?)
quote:It may even be argued that the backlash against hydro has now also gone too far, and maybe there is still a future role for hydro, but simply recognising that there are clear limits to how far it should be scaled up.
quote:Originally posted by DoctorBeaverI agree with Another_someone that we need to diversify more.
quote:If I may be allowed to throw another hat into the ring - the coast of north Norfolk is being eroded at an alarming rate. Hundreds of thousands of pounds has been spent trying to stop, or at least slow down, the damage. In many places the effort has now been stopped mainly for economic reasons. Why the hell wasn't a wave farm built just off the coast? Not only would that have provided electricity for at least the local area, but would have lessened the power of the waves hitting the coast thus slowing erosion dramatically.
quote:AS we are no longer self-sufficient in coal, we are dependent on other countries to provide it; but their reserves won't last much longer either.
quote: North Sea oil & gas are running out fast.
quote:With current technology, that leaves only nuclear power. I think I remember reading that 1 nuclear plant can generate the same power as a thousand-acre wind farm - plus the power output is predictable. Even though the disposal of waste from nuclear plants is very problematic, there really doesn't seem to be a viable alternative.
quote:Originally posted by DoctorBeaverWaste incineration is an option, but again would not provide more than a very modest contribution to the power demands of a country like the UK. I think the strongest argument in favour of incineration is that of ecology rather than power generation.
quote:Firstly, the east coast of England, particularly the South-East, is the most heavily populated region of the UK, both on land and at sea (with regard to shipping lanes, etc.)
quote:A problem I see with diversity is psychological. People like to compete, to prove themselves the best at something. In order to be the best, you have to have something to measure. It is (at least in principle, if not always in practice) easy to measure the amount of carbon you consume, and so create a race to reduce carbon consumption, but how do you measure diversity?
quote:The reason we are no longer self sufficient in coal is not because we ran out of it, far from it, we still have lots left to dig up; it is because UK labour rates were uncompetitive at the prevailing currency exchange rates, making it cheaper to have other people dig up their coal using their cheap labour (or, in some countries, state subsidised labour) than to have our people dig up our coal.
quote:If the high oil prices are maintained for any length of time, I suspect we will find that we have not run out of oil as much as we thought we had. We had simply run out of that oil which could economically be extracted (in fact, it is the exploration rather than the extraction cost which is the dominant factor) at the prices that were current a few years back.
quote:I accept there are challenges associated with waste disposal from nuclear plants, but I also think people can get far too hysterical about waste disposal in general.
quote:Much of the radiation risk I suspect is overhyped, since long lived isotopes (such a uranium 235/238, or even plutonium 239 – assuming they are not involved in a fission chain reaction) by their very nature cannot be very radioactive. It is the short lived isotopes (such as the cobalt 60 so beloved of the medical profession – but people are much less panicked about the use of cobalt 60 in hospitals than they are by uranium in nuclear power plants) that will carry greater radiation risk.
quote:Originally posted by AlphBravoThe thing I notice about Global warming+Dimming is that regardless of the cause we are now facing a period of transition, and the fact that as Twain said, over a century ago: "Everyone talks about the weather, but no one does anything about it". It is probably more pertinent than ever today, after all the foodstocks etc are not that resilient to withstand a mega drought, which is what we are lead to believe we are facing drier dries and wetter wets and maybe out of kilter.