Is our Earth is cooling?

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Is our Earth is cooling?
« on: 09/03/2013 19:43:23 »
A simple random sample of mine showed we are cooling, for at least the past 12 years
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/

Most seem to agree with my dataset

link here

Furthermore, my data set on maxima shows we will be cooling for some time to come.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/

this will cause a shift in cloud formation and condensation causing some places to get much cooler whilst other countries might get some GH benefit- even though they will see less sun…

an example is Alaska (getting much cooler) and CET (getting warmer)
« Last Edit: 10/03/2013 22:19:32 by JP »

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Online Bored chemist

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Re: Our earth is cooling...
« Reply #1 on: 09/03/2013 19:54:46 »
"A simple random sample of mine"
How was it randomised?
Please disregard all previous signatures.

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Offline CliffordK

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Re: Our earth is cooling...
« Reply #2 on: 09/03/2013 21:37:15 »
Your Hadcrut, RSS, etc charts, you are conveniently only showing a single decade.  Obviously the picture is different when looking at more than one decade.

The best one can say is that it has been flat for the last decade or so.  It would be hard to calculate trends from that.  We are in the middle of one of the weakest solar cycles in a century.  But, I think a lot will be learned from this solar cycle, and perhaps the next couple of cycles.

My biggest question is whether the increases in temperatures that most charts are showing from about 1980 to 2000 are real, or if there is some systematic error that is creating a bias in the samples.  Or, of course, whether it is part of a cycle.

From looking at the data, it is my belief that the temperatures are increasing somewhat, but there is a cyclical nature of the temperature increases that wasn't fully incorporated into the future projections.  And, thus the overall rate of temperature increase is lower than had been projected.

We may well be in a downswing now, continuing at least until about 2020.  However, it likely will not make up for the earlier temperature gains.  In fact, flat temperatures when temperatures should be decreasing may be a sign for bad things to come in the future.

One of the problems, though, is that I don't think there is a good understanding of the consequences of possible temperature (and CO2) increases.

While local dry weather, and heat are often associated, that is not necessarily true on a global scale as warmer weather is also associated with more evaporation, and greater moisture in the atmosphere.

And, of course, while C4 plants may not benefit from increasing CO2 concentrations, C3 plants likely will have a substantial benefit.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #3 on: 10/03/2013 09:22:55 »
@bored chemist
The sample was random in that I only approved the (weather) station if it had complete or near complete records.
I also balanced it by latitude and 70/30 @sea and inland, more or less. Longitude does not matter as we are looking at the average yearly temperatures,
which includes earth's  seasonal shifts and earth turns every 24 hours. T
he interesing part is to look at the maxima, you can do a very nice binomial fit if you set the speed of cooling out against time.
@CliffordK
11 years is one whole time span of one sun cycle.
If you do a binomial on the speed of cooling versus time of the maxima you get high correlation but .... wrong, I hope.
It must be the sine wave fit that applies.
 :)

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Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #4 on: 10/03/2013 10:38:06 »
There are several overlapping climatologic cycles.

  • 11 year solar cycles.
  • Perhaps longer solar cycles.  I saw one paper about interference patterns in solar cycles, but don't see it now.  The current solar cycle (24) is one of the weakest in about a century, and some estimates are that the next cycle (25) may be even weaker.
  • El Niño, La Niña
  • Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)
  • 60 year cycles?
    I tend to like the charts that indicate a rather strong 60 year climate cycle.

    If we are at the peak, then we should have some cooling over the next 30 years.  But, I find it doubtful that we will dip down to the levels in the last trough in the 1960's. 
    However, we may not hit the next trough until 2030 or 2040, and experience little change in global temperatures.
    If we fail to have any significant warming from 1998 to 2040, it is likely those that are predicting a warm future will have difficulties maintaining attention to the future dangers.
I am a bit suspicious about data continuity with all the equipment changes.  However, I do believe that we are seeing real, and long-term changes in the Arctic, so perhaps the northern ocean will act as a secondary confirmation about global changes.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth cooling?
« Reply #5 on: 10/03/2013 15:07:23 »
@CliffordK
Before they started with the carbon dioxide nonsense, people looked at the planets to explain weather cycles, rightly or wrongly.
see here
http://www.cyclesresearchinstitute.org/cycles-astronomy/arnold_theory_order.pdf
to quote from the above paper:
"A Weather Cycle as observed in the Nile Flood cycle, Max rain followed by Min rain, appears discernible with
maximums at 1750, 1860, 1950 and minimums at 1670, 1800, 1900 and a minimum at 1990 predicted.
The range in meters between a plentiful flood and a drought flood seems minor in the numbers but real in consequence....

end quote

Acording to my table for maxima, I calculate the date where the sun decided to take a nap, as being around 1995.
and not 1990 as William Arnold predicted. please correct me if you think I am wrong.
This is looking at energy-in. I think earth reached its maximum output (means) a few years later, around 1998.

Anyway, look again at my best sine wave plot for my data
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/

1900 minimum flooding - end of the warming
1950 maximum flooding - end of cooling
1995 minimum flooding - end of warming.
predicted 2035-2040 - maximum flooding - end of cooling.

Do you see the pertinent correlation with my sine wave?

I share your concern about looking at older data which is why I looked only at data from 1973-1974, when automatic recording began.

I really don't trust the base line of temperatures before 1925 as it seems nobody can supply me with a calibration certificate of thermometer from those days.
Also, the way of recording, meant that you did a reading every 4 hours or so,
which may have affected the average for the day, nevermind the fact if people were sick or on leave and the job just did not "get done"

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Online Bored chemist

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #6 on: 10/03/2013 21:53:49 »
"Before they started with the carbon dioxide nonsense,"
Let's just clarify a few things about this so called "nonsense"
CO2 is a strong absorber of IR
Not all those IR transitions are saturated so more CO2 absorbs more IR.
The sun is much hotter than the earth so it emits proportionately more of it's radiation in the visible range and less in the IR.
We know that the CO2 levels are rising.
We know that (on a global basis and a reasonable time frame) the temperatures are rising.
We know that mankind is responsible for the rise in CO2 levels.

But you still call it nonsense.

Nope, nonsense is saying "I know we but another blanket on the bed,
and I know we are warmer,
but I refuse to accept that there's any relation between those two facts."

Also, a "random" sample, doesn't mean cherry picking data that's taken over a very short timescale.


Incidentally, can someone sort out the screwed up formatting of this thread?


Please disregard all previous signatures.

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Offline JP

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #7 on: 10/03/2013 22:20:26 »
Incidentally, can someone sort out the screwed up formatting of this thread?

Done.  It has to do with someone posting long urls without using the
 [url_=www.mylink.com][/url_] tags (removing the _). 

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #8 on: 11/03/2013 06:03:11 »
@bored chemist
The greenhouse effect and the principle of re-radiation
 
Quote from Wikipedia (on the interpretation of the greenhouse effect);

“The Earth’s surface and the clouds absorb visible and invisible radiation from the sun and re-emit much of the energy as infrared back to the atmosphere. Certain substances in the atmosphere, chiefly cloud droplets and water vapor, but also carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, and chlorofluorocarbons, absorb this infrared, and re-radiate it in all directions including back to Earth.”

I am watching with amusement all scholar discussions on the green house effect as I realised again that the people that I encounter on most scientific blogs don’t understand the chemistry principle of absorption and subsequent re-radiation. In fact very few people do understand it because if they did they would have raised the alarm bells ringing long time ago. But they all got stuck at Tyndall and Svante Arrhenius. … They know that CO2 (carbon dioxide) “absorbs” in the 14-16 um region. Most people think that what it means is that the molecules absorbs photons here which then subsequently get transferred as heat to neighbouring molecules. Then it absorbs again, and so on, and so on…and all the absorbed light is continuously transferred to heat…Although this may happen up to a certain saturation point as soon as the light or radiation hits on the gas, that is in fact not what is causing the heat entrapment.

I happen to be familiar with spectrophotometry. You have to understand what actually happens when we put a beam of light of certain wavelength on a sample of liquid or gas. We have various spectrophotometers that can measure the various ranges of UV-visible -IR etc. Usually you have the option to vary the wavelength of the beam of light, either manually or automatically. If the gas or liquid is completely transparent, we will measure 100% of the light that we put through the sample coming through on the other side. If there is “absorption” of light at that specific wavelength that we put through the sample, we only measure a certain % on the other side. The term “extinction” was originally used but later “absorption” was used to describe this phenomenon, meaning the light that we put on was somehow “absorbed”. I think this was a rather unfortunate description as it has caused a lot of confusion since. Many people think that what it means is that the light of that wavelength is continually “absorbed” by the molecules in the sample and converted to heat. If that were true, you would not be able to stop the meter at a certain wavelength without over-heating the sample, and eventually it should explode, if the sample is contained in a sealed container. Of the many measurements that I performed, this has never ever happened. Note that in the case of CO2, when measuring concentrations, we leave the wavelength always at 4.26 um. Because the “absorption” is so strong here, we can use it to compare and evaluate concentrations of CO2.

The best way to experience re-radiation for yourself is to stand in a dark forest just before dawn on a cloudless night. Humidity must be high. Note that water vapour also absorbs in the visible region of the spectrum. So as the first light of sun hits on the water vapour you can see the light coming from every direction. Left, right, bottom up, top down. You can see this for yourself until of course the sun’s light becomes too bright in the darkness for you to observe the re-radiated light from the water vapour. This is also the reason why you will quickly grab for your sun glasses when humidity is high, because even with the sun shining for you from your back and driving in your car, you can feel on your eyes that the light from the sun is re-radiated by the water vapor in the atmosphere.A third way to experience how re-radiation works is to measure the humidity in the air and the temperature on a certain exposed plate, again on a cloudless day, at a certain time of day for a certain amount of time. Note that as the humidity goes up, and all else is being kept equal, the temperature effected by the sun on the plate is lower. This is because, like carbon dioxide, water vapour has absorption in the infra red part of the spectrum.

 We can conclude from all these experiments that what actually happens is this:

in the wavelength areas where absorption takes place, the molecule starts acting like a little spherical mirror, the strength of which depends on the amount of absorption taking place inside the molecule. We may assume that at least 50% of a certain amount of radiation is sent back in a radius of 180 degrees in the direction where it came from. (However, because the molecule is very small and therefore might behave more or less like a sphere, it could be up to ca. 62,5% ). This re-radiation in the sun’s spectrum and in the earth’s spectrum is the cooling effect, or warming effect, respectively, of a gas hit by radiation. An effect that is very similar to this, is also observed when car lights are put on bright in humid, moist and misty conditions: your light is returned to you!!

Unfortunately, in their time, Tyndall and Arrhenius could not see the whole picture of the spectrum of a gas which is why they got stuck on seeing only the warming properties of a gas (i.e. the closed box experiments). If people would understand this principle, they would not singularly identify green house gases (GHG’s) by pointing at the areas in the 5-20 um region (where earth emits pre-dominantly) but they would also look in the area 0-5 um (where the sun emits pre-dominantly) for possible cooling effects. If you really want to understand what happens in the atmosphere, this rough graph / representation (on a cloudless day) is very important:

http://albums.24.com/DisplayImage.aspx?id=cb274da9-f8a1-44cf-bb0e-4ae906f3fd9d&t=o

- never mind the fact that the amounts of radiation heat from the sun’s 5525K and 210-310K from earth displayed, are completely out of proportion -

just see how the absorptions that are apparent in the spectra of the individual components of the atmosphere affect the outgoing radiation of earth and see how they affect the incoming radiation. For example, let us look at the absorption of ozone at between 9-10 um? It makes a dent in earth’s outgoing radiation at 9-10. In other words what happens: Radiation from earth of 9-10 goes up, hits on the ozone, most of which is high up in the sky and which is already absorbed to capacity, and therefore a great percentage (at least 50%, probably more) is sent back to earth, leading to entrapment of heat, leading to delay in cooling, leading to a warming effect. Also look at water vapor and CO2 around 2 um and see how that makes a dent in the incoming solar radiation. Notice that the ozone shields us from a lot of sunlight by absorbing and re-radiating in the UV region. In fact, if you really grasp what you are seeing in this graph/ representation (from a cloudless day), you would realize that without the ozone and CO2 and H2O and other GHG’s you will get a lot more radiation on your head. In fact, you would probably fry.

For comprehensive proof that CO2 is (also) cooling the atmosphere by re-radiating sunshine, see here:
http://www.iop.org/EJ/article/0004-637X/644/1/551/64090.web.pdf?request-id=76e1a830-4451-4c80-aa58-4728c1d646ec

They measured this re-radiation from CO2 as it bounced back to earth from the moon. So the direction was sun-earth (day)-moon(unlit by sun) -earth (night). Follow the green line in fig. 6, bottom. Note that it already starts at 1.2 um, then one peak at 1.4 um, then various peaks at 1.6 um and 3 big peaks at 2 um. You can see that it all comes back to us via the moon in fig. 6 top & fig. 7. Note that even methane cools the atmosphere by re-radiating in the 2.2 to 2.4 um range.

This paper here shows that there is absorption of CO2 at between 0.21 and 0.19 um (close to 202 nm):

http://www.nat.vu.nl/en/sec/atom/Publications/pdf/DUV-CO2.pdf
There are other papers that I can look for again that will show that there are also absorptions of CO2 at between 0.18 and 0.135 um and between 0.125 and 0.12 um.
We already know from the normal IR spectra that CO2 has big absorption between 4 and 5 um.

So, to sum it up, we know that CO2 has absorption in the 14-16 um range causing some warming (by re-radiating earthshine) but as shown and proved above it also has a number of absorptions in the 0-5 um range causing cooling (by re-radiating sunshine). This cooling happens at all levels where the sunshine hits on the carbon dioxide same as the earthshine. The way from the bottom to the top is the same as from top to the bottom. So, my question is: how much cooling and how much warming is caused by the CO2? How was the experiment done to determine this and where are the test results? (I am afraid that simple heat retention testing might not work here, we have to use real sunshine and real earthshine to determine the effect in W/m3 / [0.03%- 0.06%]CO2/m2/24hours).

I am doubtful of the analysis of the spectral data. I have not seen any work that convinces me. In the case of CO2, I think the actual heat caused by the sun’s IR at 4-5 could be underestimated, i.e. the radiation of the sun between 4 and 5 may be only 1% of its total energy output, but how many Watts per m2 does it cause on earth? Here in Africa you cannot stand in the sun for longer than 10 minutes, just because of the heat (infra-red) of the sun on your skin.

In all of this we are still looking at pure gases. The discussion on clouds and the deflection of incoming radiation by clouds is still a completely different subject.

CO2 also causes cooling by taking part in the life cycle. Plants and trees need warmth and CO2 to grow – which is why you don’t see trees at high latitudes and – altitudes. It appears no one has any figures on how much this cooling effect might be. There is clear evidence that there has been a big increase in greenery on earth in the past 4 decades.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/

From all of this, you should have figured out by now that any study implying that the net effect of more CO2 in the atmosphere is that of warming, must exhibit a balance sheet in the right dimensions showing us exactly how much radiative warming and how much radiative cooling is caused by an increase of  0.01% of CO2  that occurred in the past 50 years in the atmosphere. It must also tell us the amount of cooling caused by the increase in photosynthesis that has occurred during the past 50 years.

There are no such results in any study, let alone in the right dimensions. FOR EXAMPLE, consider the fact that time must be in the dimensions.

For more on why it is considered highly unlikely that CO2 is a contributory cause to global warming, see here:

http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
(the ratios show that it was maxima pushing up means and minima, not the minima pushing up means - due to a delay in cooling by increasing GHG's)
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/
The above results suggest that a cooling cycle started around 1995 looking at energy-in (maxima) and 1998 for energy out (means)

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Online Bored chemist

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #9 on: 11/03/2013 21:01:44 »
"I happen to be familiar with spectrophotometry. You have to understand what actually happens when we put a beam of light of certain wavelength on a sample of liquid or gas."

I happen to be a spectroscopist: and I do understand it.

"Note that water vapour also absorbs in the visible region of the spectrum."
Not really, no. Please tell me what the excited state is and what the strength of the absorbtion is.
".So as the first light of sun hits on the water vapour you can see the light coming from every direction."
No, and this is obviously wrong to anyone who ahas been around at sunrise.
In particular it was clearly nonsense when they built Stonehenge.
If the light came in from all directions than they couldn't have lined the stones up with the sun.

"This is also the reason why you will quickly grab for your sun glasses when humidity is high, because even with the sun shining for you from your back and driving in your car, you can feel on your eyes that the light from the sun is re-radiated by the water vapor in the atmosphere."
Wrong again.
The light is scattered back by whatever is in front of you.
One group of so called "primitive" people who developed sunglasses were those living in the extreme North. The air there is typically dry, but the glare is intense.
Glare is also commonly observed in the hot deserts of the world.

" (However, because the molecule is very small and therefore might behave more or less like a sphere, it could be up to ca. 62,5% )."
From what orifice did you pull that number?

"An effect that is very similar to this, is also observed when car lights are put on bright in humid, moist and misty conditions: your light is returned to you!! "
Yes, the IR emitted by the earth is back scattered by the atmosphere.
That's what keeps the planet warm.

This:
"Radiation from earth of 9-10 goes up, hits on the ozone, most of which is high up in the sky and which is already absorbed to capacity"
doesn't make sense.

And the paper you cite saying "For comprehensive proof that CO2 is (also) cooling the atmosphere by re-radiating sunshine, see here: " doesn't show cooling, it shows that
the earth's atmosphere contains CO2 (etc)
and that the earth is not at absolute zero.
Neither of those was a matter of contention.

"So, my question is: how much cooling and how much warming is caused by the CO2?"
Mainly warming, as pointed out by a lot of atmospheric physicists who know more about it than you clearly do.
The simple reason for this is that the ground is warmer than the high atmosphere.
The CO2 near the top can re-radiate energy into space, but it hasn't got much.
The stuff near ground has more energy, but it can't re-radiate so well because there's a lot of CO2 in the way.

Saying "I am doubtful of the analysis of the spectral data. I have not seen any work that convinces me." doesn't help much either.
On what basis do you reject the analysis?
Is it just because it doesn't fit with your belief?

It would also help if you made up your mind.
Do you mean "In all of this we are still looking at pure gases. The discussion on clouds and the deflection of incoming radiation by clouds is still a completely different subject." or do you mean "An effect that is very similar to this, is also observed when car lights are put on bright in humid, moist and misty conditions: your light is returned to you!! "

And don't use CAPS LOCK to highlight things that you don't  understand like units.
"FOR EXAMPLE, consider the fact that time must be in the dimensions."
Using the wrong units (such as " W/m3 / [0.03%- 0.06%]CO2/m2/24hours") doesn't make you look any more credible  at best, but telling other people to use the right units when you don't is silly.

Anyway, I'm missing something interesting on telly, so I won't bother with the rest of your post for the minute.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #10 on: 12/03/2013 06:06:56 »
bored chemist says
And the paper you cite saying "For comprehensive proof that CO2 is (also) cooling the atmosphere by re-radiating sunshine, see here: " doesn't show cooling, it shows that
the earth's atmosphere contains CO2 (etc)

henry@bored chemist
We measure radiation specific to the spectrum of CO2 coming back from the moon and you don't call that radiative cooling? It is radiation coming back from earth going back to space. If CO2 is increasing then so is the back radiation caused by the CO2.
Here is another graph that illustrates my point even better:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Solar_Spectrum.png
the yellow marked amount of radiation of that solar spectrum is what is being back radiated, mostly by the O3, HxOx and NxOx, and lastly also by CO2.
(I think many people know that (more) UV + O2 => (more) O3 but not all people know that in a similar way HxOx (peroxides) and nitrous oxides are also formed TOA that also cause more back radiation if there is more of it. I was able to correlate the beginning of the decline of ozone with the beginning of warming (1950) and the start of cooling with the increase in ozone (1995). We can measure ozone both on the NH and the SH, but not the peroxides and the others. Hence we are cooling because ozone and others are increasing as F-UV and/or E-UV is (or must be) increasing)

So, anyway, what is important to know is that incoming radiation from the sun is being back radiated in the absorptive regions of the CO2 in the UV, 1-2um and 4-5um and hence,  this will increase if there is more of it in the atmosphere similar to the back radiation going back to earth of the 14-16 um.   
At this stage we should not forget that incoming radiation is 5000K and outgoing (14-16um) is 210K.

So, if you want to claim that an increase in CO2 causes a net warming effect, you first have to show me a balance sheet. And how much cooling is caused by the CO2 by the increase in greenery?
bored chemist says
Anyway, I'm missing something interesting on telly, so I won't bother with the rest of your post for the minute.

henry says
yes do go back to your telly. You might learn something there.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #11 on: 12/03/2013 06:53:14 »
CliffordK says
But, I find it doubtful that we will dip down to the levels in the last trough in the 1960's. 

@CliffordK
Actually, I do think we will dip to where we were in the 1950 and that all the arctic ice will come back.
There are several markers that point me in that direction,
namely as referred to in my previous post, the change in ozone is remarkable in that it follows exactly  on my a-c wave as predicted. Too much co-incidence there. This has led me to consider that this whole CFC scare was also a bit of a red herring and that the actual effect it had on the ozone layer was probably very little. There are natural processes that dominate the production of chemicals on TOA. Most probably it is a re-distribution within  TSI that is causing a difference in the composition of the chemicals lying on TOA.

Those that point to melting ice and glaciers, as “proof” that it is (still) warming, and not cooling, should remember that there is a lag from energy-in (maxima)  and energy-out. Counting back 88 years i.e. 2012-88= we are in 1924. Now look at some eye witness reports of the ice back then?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/
Sounds familiar? Back then, they had seen that the arctic ice melt was due to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. But by 1950 all that ‘lost” ice had frozen back.

I therefore predict that all lost arctic ice will come back, from 2015-2040 as also happened from 1925-1950.
Don't invest in the arctic, is my bet.

So, I  guess what I am saying is that I agree with your graph of the sine wave but I think it is straight. It has just been curling up because of differences in accuracy and changes in methods of testing that occurred in the past.

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Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #12 on: 12/03/2013 09:07:00 »
The Arctic vs Antarctic is a bit of an enigma.

I was expecting the Arctic sea ice to start rebounding by now.  But we are still hitting very low sea ice levels.  Although looking at the maps, it is really only a few areas on the Atlantic side that were slow with icing over this winter.

However, the one thing that the Global warming isn't accounting for very well is the Antarctic sea ice, which last year the maximum extent was about 1 million km2 greater than average, and the minimum was about a half million km2 greater than average, in the same time frame the Arctic was hitting record lows.

Perhaps the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) would have an extraordinary effect on the Fram strait, as well as the sea ice in general, especially on the Atlantic side which was slow freezing up this winter.

However, a bad sign with the Arctic is that both the Northwest Passage and the Northeast passage haven't been generally open several years in a row for at least 200 years, not that I'm convinced that early sailing ships would have been able to detect and utilize a few weeks of open passages for travel between the Pacific and Atlantic.

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Offline evan_au

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #13 on: 12/03/2013 10:24:57 »
Chlorofluorocarbons are potent greenhouse gasses. Fortunately, the Montreal protocol capped production of these, and levels in the atmosphere are starting to decline. This should slow down one aspect of lower-atmospheric warming=>upper-atmospheric cooling.

Unfortunately, CO2 does not have so many substitutes readily at hand, and so the rapidly escalating production of CO2 will soon overwhelm any small gains from the Montreal protocol.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #14 on: 12/03/2013 11:22:03 »
evan_au says
Unfortunately, CO2 does not have so many substitutes readily at hand, and so the rapidly escalating production of CO2 will soon overwhelm any small gains from the Montreal protocol.
henry says
clearly you missed what I posted earlier on, namely 11/03.2013 at 06:03:11. Perhaps you want to check that out again. And bring me your balance sheet. Or you can also go and watch the telly and "believe" everything they tell you there.
Just for the record here: I am saying the warming and cooling can be explained by natural processes. Hence we are now cooling, as proven to you by my post at the beginning of this thread.
Anyway, don't worry about the extra CO2 that we produce either. They recently discovered that they could not find 60% of it back. It simply disappeared.....into "thin" air, so to speak...

 Now we all know where that went. Right, we all want more trees, more lawns, more crops, more coffee, more wine, don't we?
Cheers.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #15 on: 12/03/2013 11:34:49 »
@CliffordK

My forefathers (William Barentz from the 16th century etc) were convinced that a passage did exist. They even died on Nova Zembla trying to find it. I think they must have heard in their "history" lessons from the Norwegians that the passage must have been open at some time in the past, which is how the Vikings were able to move so quickly. ... That could have been in the Medeviel Warm Period, as referred to in the 2nd graph, shown here,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/12/09/hockey-stick-observed-in-noaa-ice-core-data/
in the time when Greenland was really green.

That time has not arrived and seeing that a cooling process has now started it will not happen.
All bets should be off on developing the arctic. It will all freeze up there aqain in the next few decades.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #16 on: 12/03/2013 11:53:16 »
@CliffordK

BTW it seems there is some similarity between the AMO
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/1b/Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg/300px-Amo_timeseries_1856-present.svg.png

and my a-c curve for the drop in global maximum temperatures,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2012/10/02/best-sine-wave-fit-for-the-drop-in-global-maximum-temperatures/

but there maybe some lags/unlags due to other interference, like earth's own volcanic activity, rotation if the iron core, etc.
Just remember with maxima, I am looking at energy coming through the atmosphere whereas with AMO we are looking at the energy going into the sea, from all directions, including earth itself.


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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #17 on: 12/03/2013 19:37:40 »
"We measure radiation specific to the spectrum of CO2 coming back from the moon and you don't call that radiative cooling? It is radiation coming back from earth going back to space. If CO2 is increasing then so is the back radiation caused by the CO2."

You are muddling the two uses of the word.
It's the transfer of heat but, to a good approximation, all that heat was just provided to the earth by the sun so the earth isn't cooling.
You are trying to call a process "cooling" even though it doesn't result in anything becoming cooler.
that's just playing with words.

And you seem not to have noticed that I shot holes in all your major points.

What would be the point of a balancesheet?
Give your inability to choose the right units to aclculate an outcome from that sheet, you wouldn't understand it if we gave you one.
Secondly, and more importantly.
Screw the calculation: we have the experiment. The earth is getting warmer.
If the balance sheet didn't agree with that observation, it would be the wrong sheet.
So it's not going to tell us anything that we don't already know.
The earth is getting hotter.

Incidentally, the Montreal protocol was to stop us screwing the ozone layer. That's a good thing, but it wasn't designed to alter the greenhouse effect.
It will, but only to a rather small extent and only "by accident".
It would be better to leave it out of the discussion of global warming.
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #18 on: 12/03/2013 19:59:33 »
bored chemist says
Give your inability to choose the right units to aclculate an outcome from that sheet, you wouldn't understand it if we gave you one.
Secondly, and more importantly.
S_____ (Mod edit) the calculation: we have the experiment. The earth is getting warmer.
(sic)

henry says
I think my units are right. I addressed that problem here.
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2011/08/11/the-greenhouse-effect-and-the-principle-of-re-radiation-11-aug-2011/#comment-294
But I am open to other suggestions.

I think we should not  not allow the word "screw" and "screwing" on a public blog website such as this.
Clearly, you are entirely missing the point of my initial  post which was to show that earth has been cooling, globally, for the last 11 or 12 years.
« Last Edit: 27/04/2013 23:31:48 by JimBob »

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #19 on: 12/03/2013 20:11:55 »
These are the wrong units
 W/m3 / [0.03%- 0.06%]CO2/m2/24hours

And I don't understand your problem with the word.
Nor did shakespeare
But sS_____ (Mod edit) your courage to the sticking-place,   
And we’ll not fail.
http://www.bartleby.com/46/4/17.html

And I'm ignoring your questionable data over a carefully chosen interval for the reasons I and others have given above.
« Last Edit: 27/04/2013 23:32:52 by JimBob »
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #20 on: 12/03/2013 20:20:24 »
@bored chemist
We may have to think about this a bit and develop a thought experiment. If you understood my posts here, we would have to try an experiment in a vessel that is open from the top i.e. not a closed box experiment. Lets assume we can get two football sites next to each other walled like a normal GH but not covered from the top. This must be somewhere on earth where we have average 342 W/m2. It must also be sunny and wind still, or as wind still as possible. Then, in the one box we introduce CO2 and the other box we leave as is. Now, CO2 is heavier than air, so I am expecting that we will be able elevate the CO2 in the air of the one box somewhat. In both boxes we are monitoring CO2 and temperature at various distances from the ground, continuously.
At this point we have to consider that earth shines 24 hours a day while the sun shines 12 hours a day. (if we conduct the experiment at a time when the exposure is indeed 12 hours sunshine)
So we have to do an experiment at night and mulitply the result by 2
And we have to do the experiment by day and realize that this is all you get in 24 hours.
I imagine the result would be something like a difference (when we increase CO2) of a cooling effect during the day between the two boxes and a warming effect during the night between the two big boxes.
The dimension would be deltaT which can be converted to W/m2/m (height of the sensor from the ground) per % CO2 in the surrounding air per m2 per time period
You agree? I am very open to your ideas as I am not a very good engineer.
Seeing that W/m2/m= W/m3, I think that my dimensions were correct.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #21 on: 12/03/2013 20:25:54 »
@bored chemist
you can ignore my data and those of all the others of the past 11 years (= one full solar cycle)
but the snow will still follow you....

LOL

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #22 on: 12/03/2013 21:37:07 »
The units you cited (W/m3 / [0.03%- 0.06%]CO2/m2/24hours) are W/m^5/day/% CO2
Watts per day is stupid enough but having a term in metres to the fifth is absurd.

The units you really want are K
For example, the temperature rise is 0.3K
You might want something like K/century as the rate of change.

Anyway, as I said, we know the temperature is going up.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #23 on: 13/03/2013 05:36:47 »
Bored chemist says
Anyway, as I said, we know the temperature is going up.

henry says
no it is not! in the graph below we still see CO2 rising but global temperature rise has stalled.

http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut3gl/from:1997.33/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2001.33/trend/plot/rss/from:1997/trend/plot/wti/from:2000.9/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1997.1/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2000.8/trend/plot/uah/from:2008.5/trend/plot/esrl-co2/from:1997/normalise:0.5/scale:0.5/offset:0.34

As shown in my first post, if we take it to the past 11 years we see temperatures have started falling. Also, even CliffordK's graph shows this. We both think or suspect that the observed incline of that sine wave could just be due to changes in equipment and methods of testing, over time.
On top of that, if you had understood my previous postings of how the GH effect works, namely that it causes a delay in cooling, from earth to space, resulting in a warming effect, then it follows that if more CO2 or more H2O or more other GHG's were to be blamed for extra warming we should see minima rising faster, pushing up the means. That has not happened. If you look at my tables here,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
you will notice that if we take the speed of warming over the longest period, we find a ratio of maxima : means: minima of 0.036:0.014:0.006. That is ca. 6:2:1. So it was maxima pushing up minima and means. And not the other way around.

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #24 on: 13/03/2013 21:37:02 »
"On top of that, if you had understood my previous postings of how the GH effect works, "
You explained wow it doesn't work
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #25 on: 15/03/2013 17:24:39 »
@bored chemist
Clearly, you did not even read or understand my very first post and the implications of my results, especially the last sentence.


You can ignore them, but to ignore them is the same as ignoring the truth. The truth has a habit of showing up, eventually,
(John 19-37&38 - how appropriate for this time of the year),

(I am not worried except for the waste of $trillions, on so-called climate science, and expensive energy alternatives).

How on earth are we expected to do terra forming on future planets if we cannot even get the basic science of the ideal atmospheric composition right?

Here you can see that putting up more CO2 in the air is good for you,
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2011/03/24/the-earths-biosphere-is-booming-data-suggests-that-co2-is-the-cause-part-2/

People wanting less CO2 and less H2O are actually denying their own father and mother.....
if you go far enough back in time. Chris should have figured that one out.
Anyway, goodbye, God bless you all,
I wish you and all my brethren here the best for the future.

Henry

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #26 on: 16/03/2013 09:22:30 »
Or, in the real world:

"Earth's temperature is changing faster now than at any time since the last ice age, according to a new analysis of global temperatures spanning the last "
from

http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23247-true-face-of-climates-hockey-stick-graph-revealed.html
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #27 on: 16/03/2013 15:25:19 »

@bored chemist
it appears there were inconsistencies with the statistical analysis there

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/03/16/marcotts-uptick-a-result-of-proxy-sign-inconsistency/

I already gave you a link to the greenland ice core analysis earlier up the thread which clearly you did not read or understand


now please, can I, for once,  be the one who has the last word on this blog?
I am sure you have better things to do than educate a "screw-up" like me.

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Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #28 on: 17/03/2013 02:24:29 »
BC you are fighting a losing battle here. This is not only a man of good old fashioned common sense, he also goes with God at his side as I get it, reading :) 

Anyway, you being right won't solve this. Only divine intervention will.
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #29 on: 17/03/2013 09:18:26 »
Indeed,
As long as you can quote the Bible you don't need to supply actual evidence to overrule reality: just point out that someone on some site somewhere disagrees with it.

I think part of his problem is that he thinks it's a blog.
If it were then he could have the last word, as it stands, there is no reason why he should.

I think the evidence should have the last word.
What does everyone else think?
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Offline Henry Pool

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #30 on: 17/03/2013 15:03:18 »
@bored chemist
Remember Steve McIntyre? You think
http://climateaudit.org/2013/03/16/the-marcott-shakun-dating-service/ [nofollow]

there, we got that sorted out for you.

Your-on is a bit off. I always make my observations and judge the results.

I wish you many happy wet and snowy days - be glad that you are right:
it is getting warmer in central England
Paradoxically it gets warmer in CET because globally it is getting cooler,
… it is called the GH effect…..

remember my name

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #31 on: 17/03/2013 19:57:03 »
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scientific_opinion_on_climate_change

The scientific opinion on climate change is that the Earth's climate system is unequivocally warming, and it is more than 90% certain that humans are causing it through activities that increase concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, such as deforestation and burning fossil fuels.[1][2][3][4] This scientific consensus is expressed in synthesis reports, by scientific bodies of national or international standing, and by surveys of opinion among climate scientists. Individual scientists, universities, and laboratories contribute to the overall scientific opinion via their peer-reviewed publications, and the areas of collective agreement and relative certainty are summarised in these high level reports and surveys.
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Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #32 on: 29/03/2013 16:54:01 »
I especially like 'Remember my name'. It's soo, Hollywood?

Anyway, with more humidity you will get more water coming back from the atmosphere, some as rain some as snow, and all things in between :) When the Arctic melts you get open waters, where there formerly was ice reflecting back the suns rays. That means that the water will consume 'heat' from those rays, and store it to release, as well as transport it to other parts of the world, depending on streams, winds, etc. Greenland and the Arctic are getting a lot of heat those days, keeping Greenland over zero The Greenland melt. . Sweden, parts of USA, and England  (Europe) on the other hand is getting a lot more cold and snow. The reason being  It’s Official: Arctic Sea Ice Shatters Record Low and those (new to us at least) atmospheric conditions that it creates. The Winter the Polar Vortex Collapsed.

But this is a new situation, and I'm sure we will see more of it as the number one 'reality show' global warming reveal itself for us. And remember, we're all participants this time :)

==

If you only read one of the links, choose the Greenland melt. Because that one gives me worries.
« Last Edit: 29/03/2013 17:17:03 by yor_on »
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #33 on: 29/03/2013 18:03:49 »

@Yor_on
you completely removed my last comment, implicating UEA, in part, for the whole global warming scam...
Nevertheless, I will answer your comment. Count back 88 years? where are we?
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2008/03/16/you-ask-i-provide-november-2nd-1922-arctic-ocean-getting-warm-seals-vanish-and-icebergs-melt/
Read the whole newspaper report. The warming was caused by the warmer Gulf stream.
As I said: all "LOST" arctic ice will freeze back in the next 2 decades, as it did from 1925-1950.
You don't have to worry. Except, of course for more snow there, where you live...
just keep shoving it...
and still believe the world is warming...

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #34 on: 29/03/2013 18:27:57 »
:)

It's okay. Wasn't writing about your sources. Only presenting what is commonly thought of, amongst those working with with climate, as being the explanation for the winters we've seen recently in northern Europe, and parts of the USA. As for climate conspiracies :) Well. I'll leave that to you.

I expect the peer reviewed papers to be okay, especially after being scrutinized. It may well be that a former weather reporter, as your link goes too, is competent to have a differing view, but? I will put my money with those working in the field, bringing home their conclusions in form of good peer reviewed papers :) And those consist of a overwhelming majority, finding us to creating a global warming.
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #35 on: 29/03/2013 18:31:41 »
Eh, I haven't removed a thing btw?
You need a moderator for that.
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #36 on: 29/03/2013 18:41:22 »

Yor_on says
It may well be that a former weather reporter, as your link goes too, is competent to have a differing view, but? I will put my money with those...
Henry says
I was talking about the newspaper report he was showing from 1922
Read it and get wise>

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #37 on: 29/03/2013 18:52:20 »
You do see this as your blog, right?
Far from me to discourage you, but we do have 'new theories'. I'm not sure that it covers this material, but if it doesn't we need to create one more :) And I read, and laughed the whole way through :) You made my day Carbon, thnx.
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #38 on: 29/03/2013 18:58:08 »
Blog? You call this a blog?
I am the one laughing....

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #39 on: 29/03/2013 19:09:41 »
Blog? You call this a blog?
I am the one laughing....
No, you called it a blog 16/03.
"now please, can I, for once,  be the one who has the last word on this blog?
I am sure you have better things to do than educate a "screw-up" like me."
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Offline JP

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #40 on: 29/03/2013 19:49:24 »
Folks, let's keep it a discussion of the science of global warming and cut back on the snarky comments.

-mod

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Offline evan_au

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #41 on: 29/03/2013 20:49:46 »
Warmer ocean temperatures means more moisture in the air.
  • More moisture in the air means more instances of heavy rainfall, hurricanes and severe snowstorms.
  • Rain from hurricanes and slush after snowstorms make you feel cold.
  • People remember how cold they felt during these extreme events.
  • That is how global warming can give people the idea that things are getting cooler - if you only take selected local memories.
Fortunately, now we have global measurements from satellites, and a fairly good network of ground-based and ocean-based measurements, extending back over many years.

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #42 on: 30/03/2013 08:45:08 »
@Evan -au

All major indicators including SST (sea surface temps) and including my own data set, show we are cooling, globally,
as shown to you in my very first post, for at least the past equivalent of one solar cycle.(11-12 years)


looking at my own data set (for example by studying degree C, versus time square)  it is clear that global warming and global cooling are a natural process and that global cooling will continue, accelerating still and it will last until at least 2038 or there about....

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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #43 on: 30/03/2013 18:23:55 »
Sorry, that should read:
by studying degrees C/annum versus time (years):
that gives you acceleration in K /t square
in my case it shows deceleration of warming or acceleration of cooling
A curved relationship indicates a natural process
just like if you were to plot the speed of a ball (in m/s) against time

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Offline yor_on

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #44 on: 02/04/2013 00:33:11 »
Let us keep it as simple as possible :)

If now that is possible. It's tricky, climate modeling is really tricky. One have to remember that we haven't really studied this extensively for more than maybe forty (fifty?) years? I'm not sure there as a real study should need to involve the best computing environment in the world, and if we use that as our definition, then we have only begun to study it. Another factor is that there are several layers in the atmosphere mixing with each other, and we have just begun to look at the stratospheres importance for the climate we notice on ground level. The same goes for the oceans at depth.

The scientific consensus of a man made global warming has nothing to do with those difficulties though, so when people want to dispute some new report/paper, or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.

To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear. But to know how it will express itself locally is almost impossible, unless we do it for some limited time. There are no computers able to do those calculations on earth, plus that we constantly find new interactions mankind didn't know existed before we started to take climate seriously, and made that field work.
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Offline MoreCarbonOK

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #45 on: 02/04/2013 15:59:33 »
yor_on says

a) or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.

b) To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear.

c) The scientific consensus of a man made global warming....

henry@yor_on

a) It is common knowledge that there has been no global warming for at least 15 or 16 years. If you deny that you are bicycling up the wrong tree.

b) we were indeed on an uptick, warming naturally, since 1927 according to my own best fit for my own data, as shown before, on maxima, which is an a-c sine wave with wavelength of approx. 88 years, on average. At the time when I determined this I was not even aware that the Gleisberg solar/weather cycle had already been determined from other data. A good (global) data base from before that time is murky, to say the least, because of poor calibration (no certificates) and poor recording methods (depending on people).

c) my  own data and those of most others, show a definitive cooling trend from 2002, and my own fit for my own data shows that we will cool further, until about 2038, when everything will be back more or less to where we were in 1950. We cannot have "an election" about this. In science, consensus is just nonsense. You only need one man to be right. I invite you to try and make another fit for my data on maxima,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/


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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #46 on: 02/04/2013 16:28:17 »
Oh :)

A lone ranger mission, is it?
Correcting the results of those 'climate scientists'?

I don't know what to say here. I can argue myself blue, but I don't expect it to change your mind, because you are r i g h t. right? Let us put this way, there are a publication for physics arxivx, why not present your calculations and evidence to them? Instead of wasting your time with argue here?  Not sure they accept climate papers, but as long as you have the equations you might have a glimmer :) And sorry Jp, your turn.
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Offline JP

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #48 on: 02/04/2013 17:30:57 »
Notes on how to cherry pick the aforementioned data to find a cooling period:

http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#trends

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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
« Reply #49 on: 02/04/2013 17:59:25 »
Ánd no, consensus is not nonsense, not when it is a peer review. Neither Einsteins papers or any of QM:s was accepted 'as is'. There is always a peer review by those involved in the field of study. But do try arxivx, or why not real climate? But you will need all those data specified with time, location, and describe the exact measurements made, you will also need cross sections done using different sources, of the same date at least.

Because, using singular sources won't give you climate, only weather. Weather is always local 'singular sources' locally measured, climate on the other hand is a global phenomena, needing a whole lot more coverage by geographically differently situated 'local weather stations'. So you need to start with how you choose your measurements and cross sections, then you also need to prove the established climate models wrong, and preferably present some new observations, and tests, making your idea plausible. A table is not a proof.

That's also why Sweden can have a prolonged winter while Australia have heat waves and bush-fires. Globally counted on the temperature constantly is raising, but locally you might find something else. Climate is tricky.

But please, don't do it here. Direct it to those you're trying to disprove instead, and put some faith in science too :)
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One more thing, 16 years do not give you enough to call it a trend. It's more of a fluctuation. It's just recently we have enough data collected to begin to use it in a statistically significant way. And doing that we find it to fit a global warming, not a global cooling. I could find you references but I won't today :)

If you really expect your data competent enough, then take it up with the right sites :)

Ahh, 2002 was it :) That's 11 years. You need at least 30-40 years, preferably more. I think the English Admiralty have some rather interesting historical weather observations from their sailing ships, around the globe, though, if I remember right? http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/i/Fact_sheet_No._12.pdf
« Last Edit: 02/04/2013 18:45:34 by yor_on »
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