Is climate change causing more severe storms?

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Offline thedoc

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Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« on: 13/03/2014 10:42:27 »
Is the extreme weather of recent years a consequence of climate change? Nobel prize winner Don Wuebbles argues that it is...
Read a transcript of the interview by clicking here
or [chapter podcast=1000639 track=14.03.11/Naked_Scientists_Show_14.03.11_1002053.mp3] Listen to it now[/chapter] or [download as MP3]
« Last Edit: 13/03/2014 10:42:27 by _system »

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Offline MeatAndPotatoes

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #1 on: 09/06/2014 16:44:36 »
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth that the climate wasn't changing?

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Offline David Cooper

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #2 on: 09/06/2014 18:30:47 »
It's about rate of change and recklessly messing with something which is gernerally stable and which we rely upon ramaining stable.

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Offline CliffordK

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #3 on: 09/06/2014 19:16:47 »
It is very difficult to track changing storm patterns.  There is a huge recording and detection bias, and just a couple of decades, most weak tornadoes were either not detected, or not recorded.  Rare events such as Cat-5 Hurricane landfalls are not common enough to calculate changes in probability. 

Around here, of the storms in the last 50 years or so, most of them were before my time.
Columbus Day Storm (Big Blow) of 1962 so far has been unmatched.
Our record snowfall was in 1969
Biggest Flood, "Christmas Flood" 1964.

Once a century weather events...  happen about once a century.
Once a millennium weather events...  happen sometime.

The big question is whether global warming will bring drier, or wetter weather.  Likely some areas will benefit, and others will be harmed. 

Sea rise is concerning.  However, some of the calculations also include a geostatic estimate that the ocean basins are getting larger, so a fudge factor is added in not related to direct observations of sea levels.  One of the concerns is that many places are actually sinking due to factors such as ground water removal and flood control.

Conservation is still a good idea.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #4 on: 15/06/2014 20:50:12 »
There's a serious problem of observation bias here. How do you measure the severity of a storm?

1. You need someone or something to be there. Sensibly, our ancestors tended to live in fairly benign places so we have very little data of pre-1900 storms in the Arctic, Antarctic, or US swamplands.

2. You need some survivable means of measuring something. Pre-satellite data comes only from hand-held instruments. Fragile sailing ships lost at sea did not provide any records but a modern bulk carrier, trawler, icebreaker or warship can collect a lot of reportable data and return from a Force 12 with all hands. More trade = more data. Time was that when the wind got too strong, land-based meteorologists just said "close the airport" and went home, but nowadays you can sit in an office and monitor hurricanes remotely: better instruments = more data.

3. You need a meaningful and consistent definition of "extreme". A hundred years ago, the few people who lived on the southeastern coasts of the USA earned their living from the sea, lived in stone cottages, and worked rugged wooden boats. So a village might cost less than $1M to repair after a couple of days of hurricane. Nowadays the area is densely populated by pensioners in glass-fronted high rise apartments, with metal cars and plastic yachts all over the place. A few minutes of Force 10 will break everything in sight and cost zillions to repair. No change in weather, just a more fragile civilisation.

4. There's money to be made and an academic career to pursue by claiming that anthropogenic climate change is significant and a Bad Thing, so whatever the facts, only the bad news gets reported.

In fact the frequency of severe landfall hurricanes measured by average wind speed over a few hours, has decreased in the USA since 1960.
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Offline yor_on

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #5 on: 16/06/2014 17:24:34 »
Sure it is. It has to, considering the new man made amount of energy that is getting stored inside Earths atmospheric envelope, relative the 'empty space' outside earths exosphere. How it will act regionally/locally is another thing, and I suspect very hard to predict. I mean, it's no different from weather predictions today, only more volatile as the energy goes up.
==

This is still one of the nicest introductions to global warming I've read, although not new in any way, just well written and makes you ponder.. Towards curbing Global Village Warming: Nepal's Contribution to make a difference
« Last Edit: 16/06/2014 17:39:04 by yor_on »
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Offline tkadm30

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #6 on: 31/03/2016 21:37:40 »
Storm amplification is a direct effect of solar geoengineering with coal fly ash particles.   
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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #7 on: 01/04/2016 08:39:23 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?


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Offline tkadm30

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #8 on: 01/04/2016 11:48:33 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?

Yes. I did my research.

Quote
We have seen that the US and UK have had the ability to cause massive floods and droughts for decades, and have used the technologies to devastating effect – even on their own people. Indeed, a US Navy weather modification document acquired by Wired magazine stated that the purposes of weather warfare are: ‘(1) To impede or deny the movement of personnel and material because of rains, floods, snow-blizzards, etc. (2) To disrupt economy due to the effect of floods, droughts, etc.’

http://weatherwarfare.worldatwar.info/docs/weatherweapons.pdf

http://www.wired.com/2008/02/navy-research-p/

http://cryptome.org/weather-war.pdf
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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #9 on: 01/04/2016 12:04:29 »
Do you have anyevidence that storms are getting worse?

Yes. I did my research.

Quote
We have seen that the US and UK have had the ability to cause massive floods and droughts for decades, and have used the technologies to devastating effect – even on their own people. Indeed, a US Navy weather modification document acquired by Wired magazine stated that the purposes of weather warfare are: ‘(1) To impede or deny the movement of personnel and material because of rains, floods, snow-blizzards, etc. (2) To disrupt economy due to the effect of floods, droughts, etc.’

http://weatherwarfare.worldatwar.info/docs/weatherweapons.pdf

http://www.wired.com/2008/02/navy-research-p/

http://cryptome.org/weather-war.pdf

Your first quote has it's first reference as ;

www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2001/
aug/30/sillyseason.physicalsciences

SILLY SEASON!!!!

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Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #10 on: 01/04/2016 12:17:43 »
Another wild card variable is connected to how the media deals with climate change. For example, if there is one airline crash, this can get so much coverage and expert analysis, some people will begin to think airline crashes have become a common event, worse than ever. All the planes are about to fall from then sky.

There is no sense of perspective given, such as comparing automobile and airline fatalities, or using a counter to add all the car accidents that occurred during the 3 day news cycle. This would give people a way to compare the data. This is not offered since the hype work better with lop sided analysis.

Along with the TV and printed news is cable news outlets, internet, etc. There is a lot of competition for advertiser dollars such that everyone is looking for something to hold the audience captive. The test proven way is to hype disaster. Good news causes people to go about their business, while bad news causes then to stay put. This allows more commercial revenue.

Manmade global warming was rebranded to climate change. This is the new Coke of meteorology. Global warming was simple and is defined an objective measure; temperature. People can look out and see with or without expert hype. This gave the consumer of informal†ion too much objectivity.

They came up with a new branding called climate change which is far more nebulous. It was smart marketing, since climate always changes and anything that happens defines an immediate litmus test for the consumer. It does not even have to be related to global warming, but it will be connected through inference of those who wish to believe. Many people have begun to drink this new soft drink and need to be warmed to too much caffeine and sugar.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #11 on: 01/04/2016 15:07:09 »
1. You need someone or something to be there. Sensibly, our ancestors tended to live in fairly benign places so we have very little data of pre-1900 storms in the Arctic, Antarctic, or US swamplands.

2. You need some survivable means of measuring something. Pre-satellite data comes only from hand-held instruments. Fragile sailing ships lost at sea did not provide any records but a modern bulk carrier, trawler, icebreaker or warship can collect a lot of reportable data and return from a Force 12 with all hands. More trade = more data. Time was that when the wind got too strong, land-based meteorologists just said "close the airport" and went home, but nowadays you can sit in an office and monitor hurricanes remotely: better instruments = more data.

3. You need a meaningful and consistent definition of "extreme". A hundred years ago, the few people who lived on the southeastern coasts of the USA earned their living from the sea, lived in stone cottages, and worked rugged wooden boats. So a village might cost less than $1M to repair after a couple of days of hurricane. Nowadays the area is densely populated by pensioners in glass-fronted high rise apartments, with metal cars and plastic yachts all over the place. A few minutes of Force 10 will break everything in sight and cost zillions to repair. No change in weather, just a more fragile civilisation.

4. There's money to be made and an academic career to pursue by claiming that anthropogenic climate change is significant and a Bad Thing, so whatever the facts, only the bad news gets reported.

In fact the frequency of severe landfall hurricanes measured by average wind speed over a few hours, has decreased in the USA since 1960.
1. That's not true at all. In fact, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines because that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources. That's why there were civilizations all over the world in all sorts of different climates, many of them extreme.

2. One of the most important parts of the Scientific Method is using that data to make predictions. The more accurate the predictions, the more likely the theory is to be correct. As I have pointed out a number of times, the predictions made in books I've been reading since about 1988 is that fossil fuel consumption is going to result in higher temperatures, and since then, data. data, and more accurate data has not indicated that global temperatures are falling.

3. Cost of storm damage is not the way a scientist would evaluate storm severity. That's how a politically conservative person would look at it in terms of economics. A scientist would be more likely to suggest that, if August and September are the months when warm oceans produce the most and strongest hurricanes on average, then a late October/early November storm like Hurricane Sandy, the largest Atlantic storm on record, is something of an anomaly.

4. False, and I don't know how many times I have to point this out. The SCIENTIFIC METHOD is specifically designed to get the bias OUT of science, whether that is religious bias, or political bias, or personal feelings. Again, the IPCC does not consist of Liberal Democrats. There are scientists on the IPCC from communist, socialist, capitalist, and countries of all political stripes all over the world that are 97% in agreement that anthropogenic climate change is real, and they all used the SCIENTIFIC METHOD to arrive at that conclusion. Again, oil producers, the largest and most profitable companies in the US, receive tens of billions a year in subsidies and tax breaks, not including what they make at the pump. That makes the grant money offered to scientists to study climate change look like pocket change, and you know it.

Your last fact not only includes no citation, it completely disregards non-landfall hurricanes. Those have to be considered in the total, or you've biased the data to support your argument. We're not just talking about the ones that hit land. We're talking about whether storms are getting stronger or more frequent IN GENERAL. Just because a hurricane veers North doesn't mean it's any less severe. Turning up the heat of the atmosphere makes the movement of air currents more erratic, so maybe more hurricanes will veer North. That would not imply that it's getting cooler or hurricanes are "less frequent."

Again, do you work for an oil company? Or were you planted here by the Koch brothers?
« Last Edit: 01/04/2016 15:14:30 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #12 on: 01/04/2016 17:27:31 »

, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines because that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources.
Fault lines don't cause storms.

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the predictions made in books I've been reading since about 1988 is that fossil fuel consumption is going to result in higher temperatures, and since then, data. data, and more accurate data has not indicated that global temperatures are falling.
Nobody has questioned the recent temperature record. The question is about "severe" storms.

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Cost of storm damage is not the way a scientist would evaluate storm severity.
True, but it is the only credible historic record, and still only relates to storms in relatively urban areas where damage is estimable in cash terms.

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The SCIENTIFIC METHOD is specifically designed to get the bias OUT of science, whether that is religious bias, or political bias, or personal feelings.
We do our best, but if I may quote just one fatal example - the Challenger disaster -
 
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The Rogers Commission found NASA's organizational culture and decision-making processes had been key contributing factors to the accident,[2] with the agency violating its own safety rules. NASA managers had known since 1977 that contractor Morton Thiokol's design of the SRBs contained a potentially catastrophic flaw in the O-rings, but they had failed to address this problem properly. They also disregarded warnings (an example of "go fever") from engineers about the dangers of launching posed by the low temperatures of that morning, and failed to adequately report these technical concerns to their superiors........On the night of the disaster, President Ronald Reagan had been scheduled to give his annual State of the Union address.

I'll leave you to study any other examples of politically motivated cockups such as Lysenkoism , the elimination of Chinese sparrows....

Or perhaps you can provide a counterexample where an academic scientist received government grant funding to challenge the notion of anthropogeninc global warming (incidentally, as all the IPCC predictions of thermal doom have turned out to be wrong, they no longer call it global warming - climate change is the fashionable term).
 
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.

Quote
Again, do you work for an oil company? Or were you planted here by the Koch brothers?
If only! About 50 years ago I spent 3 months working on the viscometry of aerial cropspraying emulsifiers with Shell Chemicals but they don't owe me anything and I've had no further contact with any petrochemical industry. One of my research interests is in the hydrogen-powered car and the possibility of synthesising aviation fuel from CO2 and water,  so if anything I'm in competition with the oil companies.
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Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #13 on: 02/04/2016 12:20:44 »
In America, opinions about climate change, formerly called global warming, is divided down political lines. Conservatives tend to use the test proven trends of the past to judge the present, while liberals tend to ignore the past and/or revise the past, and then follow the narrower time scale of the latest fad. One might be able to infer how the divide, down these difference in political instincts, reflect the nature of data collection. 

When someone says this is the warmest year in record, they are only taking about a narrow time scale of 100 years or so. We are not tallish about the long term history of the earth. It sounds like the history of the earth; on the record, but it is not. On the record is only based on when science began to keep accurate records. It ignores most of earth history, when formal records were not being kept, but when weather and climate change was also occurring. It sort of revises history by default; different data collection methods.

We can infer the weather of the distant past, before the formal records, using other techniques, such as ice core samples. However, these techniques will not tell us much in terms of the day to day changes in weather and climate we can see with modern tools; as seen on TV. Based on all the hard data (using two techniques) one would have to conclude, there is more recorded variety of climate change, today, than ever in history. It is data trick. There is a short term illusion, that appeals to liberals, based on technicalities. It would be like saying abortion is a natural thing, even though wide spread abortion is only possible due to modern science. An illusion is created that satisfies short term thinking.

Maybe one way to level the playing field is to run a test where all climate data has to be collected using the same techniques we use for climate data from 1M year ago. For example, we can't use thermometers nor can use directly measure CO2, but we can only use cores samples and tree rings. Core data will not tell us each and every tornado and micro-burst. This level playing field will make things look much quieter. It is more conservative.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 12:27:32 by puppypower »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #14 on: 02/04/2016 14:32:12 »
Fault lines don't cause storms.
I didn't say that. I said civilizations tend to locate themselves near resources, which are exposed by fault lines. YOU suggested civilizations pick locations based on mild weather, which is NOT true.

Here's the quote: "In fact, most civilizations in the past tended to be located near fault lines BECAUSE [emphasis mine] that's where the Earth had exposed the resources they needed, including things like water tables and mineral resources."

Nothing about faults causing storms in that statement. I used to tutor in college. Can I offer you a lesson in reading comprehension?
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 14:44:13 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #15 on: 02/04/2016 14:39:55 »
Conservatives tend to use the test proven trends of the past to judge the present, while liberals tend to ignore the past and/or revise the past, and then follow the narrower time scale of the latest fad.
COMPREHENSIVELY FALSE.

Much closer to the truth: Liberals invest in programs that they believe will pay off in the future, while conservatives want to cut programs unless they pay off today. Liberals seek progress and embrace change, conservatives like things the way they used to be. Liberals look to climate scientists for guidance, conservatives go outside in the middle of winter, make snowballs, then come back inside to show the president their "evidence."
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 14:48:47 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #16 on: 02/04/2016 14:58:23 »
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change, unless they are reporting on a reversal of the trend, or a drop in per capita energy consumption per human. Until things like that happen, there isn't going to be any good news. That's going to happen later than sooner because people like you keep casting doubt on the work of credible scientists and attempting to discredit sensible people like myself.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #17 on: 02/04/2016 15:03:37 »
Or perhaps you can provide a counterexample where an academic scientist received government grant funding to challenge the notion of anthropogeninc global warming (incidentally, as all the IPCC predictions of thermal doom have turned out to be wrong, they no longer call it global warming - climate change is the fashionable term).
Academic scientists would tend to follow the Scientific Method, so perhaps that's what's stopping them from applying for such a grant. You should follow that example. Then you won't make foolish suggestions, like that climate science is subject to fads. That's an insult to real scientists.

If you want some money for a study like that, don't ask the government, ask GMC or Standard Oil. They'll fund your study.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 15:08:38 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #18 on: 02/04/2016 15:08:33 »
Why would I want to conduct a biased study?
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #19 on: 02/04/2016 15:11:17 »
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth that the climate wasn't changing?
Like there was ever a time in the history of the Earth when 100,000,000 years worth of fossil fuels went up in smoke in 150 years?

https://nca2009.globalchange.gov/sites/default/files/images/1_Global_Page13-e.png

That indicates a problem.
« Last Edit: 02/04/2016 15:14:32 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #20 on: 02/04/2016 21:58:33 »
None of which matters anyway. I was very careful to say "only the bad news gets reported". A week with no hurricanes is not news.
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,

http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Quote
If increases in atmospheric CO2 were occurring without the possibility of associated changes in climate then, overall, the consequences for agriculture would probably be beneficial. CO2 is vital for photosynthesis, and the evidence is that increases in CO2 concentration would increase the rate of plant growth. Photosynthesis is the net accumulation of carbohydrates formed by the uptake of CO2, so it increases with increasing CO2. A doubling of CO2 may increase the photosynthetic rate by 30 to 100%,

Sounds good to me.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #21 on: 02/04/2016 23:29:58 »
It's certainly good enough for local market gardeners who use diesel generators to make...CO2! They sell the electricity as a useless byproduct and pipe the gas into their greenhouses to accelerate plant growth. The glasshouse atmosphere is actually toxic to humans.   
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #22 on: 03/04/2016 14:11:27 »
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,
http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html
"Reproduced, with permission, from: Parry, M. L. 1990."

Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #23 on: 03/04/2016 14:41:17 »
Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?
Since plant physiology has not changed significantly in 26 years, what would be the point of rewriting the obvious?

Quote
The most cited work in history, for example, is a 1951 paper describing an assay to determine the amount of protein in a solution. It has now gathered more than 305,000 citations — a recognition that always puzzled its lead author, the late US biochemist Oliver Lowry.

In my student days we had a competition to quote the oldest relevant paper in our PhD theses. I think the winner was dated 1742 - not bad for a thesis based on a linear accelerator. The impressive aspect of Galileo, Kepler, Newton, et al is that their publications remain valid to this day because the laws they discovered have not changed - ever.

The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings. 
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #24 on: 03/04/2016 14:59:24 »
The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings.
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be. The planet isn't warming up for no reason, which is the conclusion I would come to if I listened to you, Bored Chemist and Tim the Plumber, because between the three of you, you've now argued that neither the heat nor the CO2 is having a significant effect. So, where is it coming from? The hot air you're all blowing?

Again, the highest the CO2 content had been for 800,000 years was 320 ppm. We went from 320 to 400 in 50 years. That's a full 20% increase over "natural" levels, and parallels the news reports of record high temperatures for the last couple of decades.

Sorry, even if I hadn't taken any science courses in college, I would still tend to believe that burning 100 million years worth of coal and oil probably would cause a slight rise in global temperatures. I mean, I learned way back in 2nd grade that the atmosphere acts like a blanket. What happens when you cover up with a thicker blanket, then pull the blanket over your face so your breath warms the space under the blanket? Duh. Even a kid intuitively recognizes how this process works.

Because I DID take some science courses in college, I am aware that the expression of CO2 warming the atmosphere is just another manifestation of the original mass/energy conversion that took place during combustion. After a combustion reaction, the remaining particles have different properties than the fossil fuel did.

https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

Please note, that's a ".org" site from the American Institute for Physics, not a 26-year-old paper on plants, soil, pests and disease like Tim the Plumber posted.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2016 15:17:30 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #25 on: 03/04/2016 16:37:48 »
That's because there's no good news to report when it comes to anthropogenic climate change,
http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html
"Reproduced, with permission, from: Parry, M. L. 1990."

Only had to go back 26 years to find some good news, eh?

Do you consider an increase in plant effectiveness at making more plant to be a good thing? I do. Especially when it is in the range of 30% to 100 %.

I have also seen the figure of 11% increase in vegitation across the dru bits of Africa.

Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #26 on: 03/04/2016 16:45:58 »
The bizarre notion that CO2 is a significant greenhouse gas is usually ascribed to Svante Arrhenius, whose 1896 paper on the subject is still accepted without question by believers, despite its obvious shortcomings.
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be. The planet isn't warming up for no reason, which is the conclusion I would come to if I listened to you, Bored Chemist and Tim the Plumber, because between the three of you, you've now argued that neither the heat nor the CO2 is having a significant effect. So, where is it coming from? The hot air you're all blowing?

The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this. But there have always been lots of changes in climate. Natural factors cause the climate to change lots. Why is the period 1979 to now different? Why does the period 1979 to now give any cause for concearn?

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Again, the highest the CO2 content had been for 800,000 years was 320 ppm. We went from 320 to 400 in 50 years. That's a full 20% increase over "natural" levels, and parallels the news reports of record high temperatures for the last couple of decades.

But since the last 18 years have seen no significant warming then factors other than CO2 must be in play. CO2 looks increasingly weak as a forcing agent.

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Sorry, even if I hadn't taken any science courses in college, I would still tend to believe that burning 100 million years worth of coal and oil probably would cause a slight rise in global temperatures. I mean, I learned way back in 2nd grade that the atmosphere acts like a blanket. What happens when you cover up with a thicker blanket, then pull the blanket over your face so your breath warms the space under the blanket? Duh. Even a kid intuitively recognizes how this process works.

What happens if you add a postage stamp onto your blanket as an additional blanket? Numbers matter.

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Because I DID take some science courses in college, I am aware that the expression of CO2 warming the atmosphere is just another manifestation of the original mass/energy conversion that took place during combustion. After a combustion reaction, the remaining particles have different properties than the fossil fuel did.

https://www.aip.org/history/climate/co2.htm

What are you talking about? This is nothing to do with any college course. What degree or whatever did you ever get?

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Please note, that's a ".org" site from the American Institute for Physics, not a 26-year-old paper on plants, soil, pests and disease like Tim the Plumber posted.

As has been pointed out to you good science stays around and is not changed. It does not matter how old a paper is.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #27 on: 03/04/2016 17:23:26 »
Look, either the CO2 is a significant contributor, or the actual heat produced is a significant contributor, but they can't both not be.

No.

1. Water is the dominant greenhouse gas/liquid/solid. It is responsible for the bounded chaotic oscillation of temperature that we have seen in the few reliable historic records. Nothing else accounts for the rapid rses and slow falls of surface temperature over thousands of years.

2. As shown by the Mauna Loa data, carbon dioxide concentration is, in the absence of anthopogenic factors, a function of temperature, due to the reduced solubility of CO2 in sea water and the increased metabolism of coldblooded creatures at elevated temperatures.

3. The infrared absorption of CO2 is demonstrably close to saturation in the atmosphere, and is in any case negligible compared with that of water.

Phenomenon 2 explains the correlation between CO2 and temperature, but as shown by the Vostok and Mauna Loa data, since "natural" CO2 always lags behind temperature, CO2 cannot be a significant driver of climate change.

Phenomenon 3 shows that the anthropogenic addition of CO2 to the atmosphere cannot make a significant addition to global temperature.This has been borne out by the failure of every CO2-driven model to predict what actually happened since Arrhenius' seminal paper. 

Calculations elsewhere in this forum have shown that the maximum possible contribution of fossil fuel combustion is about 0.005 degrees .

As I've said before, physics is about numbers, not adjectives.

 
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #28 on: 04/04/2016 16:12:05 »
The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this.
If you don't know why, you don't need to be commenting like you are some kind of expert.

If alancalverd was DOING HIS JOB AS MODERATOR, he would calling you out on your nonsense rather than nitpicking at my actual science.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #29 on: 04/04/2016 16:15:38 »
carbon dioxide concentration is, in the absence of anthopogenic factors, a function of temperature
Thanks for proving my point. If we get rid of anthropogenic factors, we won't have anything to worry about. Simple.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #30 on: 04/04/2016 16:21:38 »
Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?
Did you even read what you linked to?? Because it looks to me like you mined a quote, then ignored the context:

EFFECTS ON IMPACTS FROM CLIMATIC EXTREMES

"Levels of risk such as these may well be altered quite markedly by apparently small changes in mean climate, particularly the risk of successive extremes, which can quickly lead to famine in food-deficit regions.

"To illustrate, suppose that extremely dry summers (of a kind that can cause severe food shortage in a given region) occur at present with a probability of P = 0.1. The return period of the occurrence of a single drought is, therefore, 10 years, while the return period for the occurrence of two successive droughts is 100 years (assuming a normal distribution of frequencies). A change in climate can lead to a change in P, either through altered variability which will change P directly, and/or through a change in mean conditions that must also change P if drought is judged relative to an absolute threshold. Alternatively, P may change through changes in some critical impact threshold as a result of altered land use, increasing population pressure, and so forth. If P becomes 0.2, then the return period of a single drought is halved to 5 years. The return period for two successive droughts, however, is reduced by a factor of four to only 25 years.[26, 27] Thus, not only is agriculture often sensitive to climatic extremes, but the risk of climatic extremes may be very sensitive to relatively small changes in the mean climate.

"The sensitivity of marginal farmers to climatic change may be especially great. The reason for this is that, near the margins of cultivation, the probability of critical levels of warmth or moisture required to avoid crop failure or a critical crop shortfall tends to increase not linearly but quasi-exponentially towards the margin of cultivation (Figure 4.6). Marginal areas are thus commonly characterized by a very steep "risk surface", with the result that any changes in average warmth or aridity, or in their variability, would have a marked effect on the level of risk in agriculture.

"For the reasons given above, much of the impact on agriculture from climatic change can be expected to stem from the effects of extreme events. Consider, first, the significantly increased costs resulting from increased frequency of extremely hot days causing heat stress in crops. In the central USA the number of days with temperatures above 35deg.C, particularly at the time of grain filling, has a significant negative effect on maize and wheat yields.[29, 30, 31] The incidence of these very hot days is likely to increase substantially with a quite small increase in mean temperature. For example, in Iowa, in the US Corn Belt, an increase in mean temperature of only 1 .7deg.C may bring about a three-fold increase in the probability of 5 consecutive days with a maximum temperature over 35DEG.C.[32] At the southern edge of the Corn Belt, where maize is already grown near its maximal temperature-tolerance limit, such an increase could have a very deleterious effect on yield.

"The increase in risk of heat stress on crops and livestock due to global warming could be especially important in tropical and subtropical t regions where temperate cereals are currently grown near their limit of heat tolerance. For example, in northern India, where GCM experiments indicate an increase in mean annual temperature of about 4deg.C, wheat production might no longer be viable.

"An important additional effect of warming, especially in temperate regions, is likely to be the reduction of winter chilling (vernalization). Many temperate crops require a period of low temperatures in winter either to initiate or to accelerate the flowering process. Low vernalization results in low flower-bud initiation and, ultimately, reduced yields. A 1deg.C warming could reduce effective winter chilling by between 10 and 30 per cent.[33]

"Changes in rainfall could have a similarly magnified impact. For example, if mean rainfall in the Corn Belt in March (which is about 100 mm [4 inches]) decreased by 10 per cent (an amount projected by some GCMs under a 2 x CO2 climate) this would raise the probability of less than 25 mm [1 inch] being received by 46 per cent. For cattle, crops and trees a 1 per cent reduction in rainfall could mean that drought-related yield losses increase by as much as a half.[34]"

Here's that source you posted again: http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Now, are you going to deny the science in your own link?

« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 16:25:23 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #31 on: 04/04/2016 16:29:07 »
Calculations elsewhere in this forum have shown that the maximum possible contribution of fossil fuel combustion is about 0.005 degrees .
Yes, but that's in a forum full of skeptics with you as a moderator. Serious physicists and scientists don't often make a habit of frequenting forums full of crackpots.

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #32 on: 04/04/2016 17:12:49 »
The planet warmed up between 1979 and 1998. Since then it has not warmed up. I do not know why the climate did this.
If you don't know why, you don't need to be commenting like you are some kind of expert.

If alancalverd was DOING HIS JOB AS MODERATOR, he would calling you out on your nonsense rather than nitpicking at my actual science.

You make claims that you cannot support. I don't. I admit the limits of my knowledge.

You would understand that this is the very first pricipal of the scientific method if you were capable of learning anything you did not like.

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #33 on: 04/04/2016 17:17:44 »
Do you deny the science I linked to just because it's older than you would like it to be?
Did you even read what you linked to?? Because it looks to me like you mined a quote, then ignored the context:

[lots]

Here's that source you posted again: http://www.ciesin.org/docs/004-038/004-038a.html

Now, are you going to deny the science in your own link?

Not at all. You said that there was nothing good about increased CO2. I posted the link to this paper which i am sure you will agree is definately on the alarmist side of the debate in general in which they say that a doubling of CO2 would increase photosynthisis by between 30% and 100%. That bit I think is a good thing.

The rest I disagree with in that I do not see strong evidence for increased extreme weather patterns. There seems to not have been such things in previous warm periods and I see no reason to expect anything different in today's warmish period whatever the reason for the warming.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #34 on: 04/04/2016 17:32:52 »
[attachment=21338]
According to NOAA, so the answer is no. But who cares about data? Climate change is politics!
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Offline JoeBrown

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #35 on: 05/04/2016 01:47:05 »
In my opinion(s) - these are my opinions, because I'm not qualified to state them as fact, but I as understand these specific opinions are in agreement with scientific facts presented as my opinions.

To me the single most clear fact about severity of any individual instance of weather is directly proportional to the amount of atmospheric water content.

That's probably stated (or should be) somewhere in a meteorology 101.  I just made it, but one opinion I think isn't fact but...  but by all accounts it is the single most important factor of any given weather event.

Now climate (settings?) behavior and ocean temperature is probably the single most significant reason for climates to vary in many aspects of any indicator of one measure of Earths temperature in degrees toward the climate.

What has caused the Oceans to change temperature is indicated by scientific reasoning that its attributed to human activity, right or wrong isn't necessarily inconsequential to the fact that all scientific studies agree the temperature and height of the ocean are both rising.

While one republic party who happens to have the most current control of United States congressional activity and/or inactivities seems to completely ignore the fact that the oceans will likely rise about 3' by the end of the current century mark.  That being the case the Florida keys will be what virtually all that Florida will be at that particular point in time.  If the party in control maintains ignorance of what will happen regardless of cause, said party will likely assume all blame for said ignorance.

Time will be the judge, jury and executioner of such ignorance.
Does everything simple always gotta be so complex?

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #36 on: 05/04/2016 14:58:53 »
You make claims that you cannot support. I don't. I admit the limits of my knowledge.
No, you DON'T admit the limits of your knowledge. Again, have you even taken one college level science course? I took four, two biology, two physics. I got good grades because I learned the material. On top of that, I've read a few hundred pounds of science books over the last 25 years or so.

You obviously come here armed with Google key word searches and confirmation biases. I don't believe you studied chemistry. I know science well enough to discern this; key concepts elude you, but you always seem to come up with details about them that you use to nitpick the argument. Learn your science correctly, please.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #37 on: 05/04/2016 15:05:15 »
Time will be the judge, jury and executioner of such ignorance.
That time is now. Again, I read Jeremy Rifkin's Entropy: Into the Greenhouse World way back in 1988. They say the best proof of a theory is its ability to make predictions. Rifkin made A LOT of predictions, and I've watched them fall one by one like dominoes.

One thing he didn't predict: People would still be this argumentative and politically polarized after two and a half decades of compelling evidence and ominously accurate predictions.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #38 on: 05/04/2016 15:12:24 »
[attachment=21338]
According to NOAA, so the answer is no. But who cares about data? Climate change is politics!
Okay, let me baby feed you the science here. When you add energy to the atmosphere, that affect air currents. When you warm the ocean, that adds to the effect. So, a higher percentage of hurricanes might turn North before they make landfall.

THAT DOES NOT MEAN THE STORMS ARE WEAKER, OR THAT THERE ARE LESS OF THEM.

YOU HAVE NO BUSINESS BEING A MODERATOR AT A SCIENCE FORUM.

YOU ARE POLITICALLY BIASED AND DISREGARD THE SCIENTIFIC METHOD.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #39 on: 05/04/2016 16:21:15 »
a higher percentage of hurricanes might turn North before they make landfall.

When did "might" become a substitute for data?

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According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the Earth is roughly 1.53 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than it was last century......
For the 2015 Atlantic storm season, which begins June 1, the Weather Channel has projected a total of nine named storms, five hurricanes and one major hurricane. The 30-year average is 12 named storms, six hurricanes and three major hurricanes.


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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #40 on: 06/04/2016 15:02:20 »

When did "might" become a substitute for data?

Today at 13:20:55, apparently.

That's when you posted a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.

That's right here in this thread if anyone would like to take a look, reply #379:

http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=65677.msg484974#new
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:28:41 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #41 on: 06/04/2016 15:34:43 »
 
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
Have you any idea what "anthropogenic" means? If you want to use big words, look them up first.

And beware of inferring causation from unidirectional correlation.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:36:45 by alancalverd »
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #42 on: 06/04/2016 16:13:27 »
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
Have you any idea what "anthropogenic" means? If you want to use big words, look them up first.

And beware of inferring causation from unidirectional correlation.
I don't need to look it up. I was an English minor in college, but even before that, way back in Mrs. Loftin's high school English class, we studied etymology. Consequently, I know "anthro" means "man" and "genic" means "originating from," so I know right off the bat that "anthropogenic" means "having human origins" even without looking it up.

You should be careful about posting graphs of studies conducted by "neurotheologists" as evidence that anthropogenic climate change is not real. When you did that, YOU inferred causation between the earth's magnetic field and changes in the composition of the atmosphere.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #43 on: 06/04/2016 16:32:28 »
When did "might" become a substitute for data?
When did ignoring data (hurricanes that make landfall) become a substitute for data?

"Might" is the appropriate word. When a pot of water is not quite boiling, there's a nice, smooth, torus-shaped roll to the water. One can predict where water in that pot is going to go. That smooth motion breaks down and becomes erratic as the temperature increases. The movement of the water will become entirely random by the time it reaches a boil. The atmosphere is no different. Hurricane tracks are already hard to predict, and it will be even more difficult to do so as the temperature of both the ocean and the atmosphere increase.

These basics are getting boring. Let me throw some more advanced science at you. Think about processes like alpha decay. It takes several wave functions to model the behavior of a particle, which moves in a chaotic fashion. Radioactivity is possible because when wave functions reinforce each other, that can allow a helium nucleus to "jump" outside the area of influence of the nucleus.

This is similar to extreme storms. Weather is a chaotic system. There are several functions involved in modelling that system. When you increase the value of one of those functions, the points where they reinforce each other take on more extreme values. That's when you get severe weather, out-of-season weather, changing storm tracks, etc.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #44 on: 06/04/2016 16:33:05 »
Consequently, I know "anthro" means "man" and "genic" means "originating from," so I know right off the bat that "anthropogenic" means "having human origins" even without looking it up.

So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate. If I recall correctly , a self-advertised English minor recently wrote:

Quote
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #45 on: 06/04/2016 16:38:35 »

When did ignoring data (hurricanes that make landfall) become a substitute for data?


Not in my lifetime, which is why I posted a graph showing exactly that information, in response to a question about severe storms. If the data challenges your prejudices, you have the option of changing your mind, or complaining about those who present it to you. One of those responses is called "science", the other is beneath contempt.
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #46 on: 06/04/2016 16:43:27 »
So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate. If I recall correctly , a self-advertised English minor recently wrote:

Quote
a graph suggesting that earth's magnetic field might be responsible for anthropogenic climate change.
I don't know what you're trying to suggest here. You posted the graph. I merely looked up the crackpot study that went along with it.

I don't want to get into a discussion with you, Tim the Plumber and Bored Chemist about "big vs. small" again. You guys basically claim as a sum total of your arguments that applying combustion to 100 million years of fossil fuels couldn't possibly warm the Earth by a degree or two because the effects are too small, so I am curious to know if you think we could be changing the entire magnetic field of the Earth, generated by a gigantic mass of molten metal at the core, with our piddly little TV broadcasts, 50,000 watt radio stations and few hundred communication satellites.

According to the pseudoscientists in the article accompanying the graph you posted, our TV broadcasts might be affecting movie ticket prices...
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 16:48:18 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #47 on: 06/04/2016 18:06:33 »
I don't know what you're trying to suggest here.
I was asking what you were trying to suggest. Or maybe the word "anthopogenic" just slipped in when you weren't thinking. Freudian?

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I am curious to know if you think we could be changing the entire magnetic field of the Earth, generated by a gigantic mass of molten metal at the core, with our piddly little TV broadcasts, 50,000 watt radio stations and few hundred communication satellites.
A bizarre suggestion, if ever I heard one. Where on earth did you get such an idea? There's nothing in the graph or the paper about any anthropogenic causative factor that I can see. You might guess from the data that CO2 causes the magnetic field to alter, but I doubt that even your vast expertise in geophysics can propose a plausible mechanism  linking either to cinema tickets.
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #48 on: 07/04/2016 16:07:30 »
I was asking what you were trying to suggest. Or maybe the word "anthopogenic" just slipped in when you weren't thinking. Freudian?
'
What were you trying to suggest, slipping in a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" as evidence to support your arguments?

Do you believe God lives in your neural pathways? Ask him what he thinks about your bogus science.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #49 on: 07/04/2016 16:15:05 »
So now, using your encyclopaedic knowledge of geophysics, please tell us how Man has altered the earth's magnetic field, or how the earth's magnetic field has somehow induced Man to change the climate.
Man doesn't alter the earth's magnetic field. The core of the earth is molten, not solid and fixed, plus the earth rotates, so magnetic field reversals have been happening for millions of years. Slight changes in the magnetic field are common and the magnetic pole drifts.

Now, please explain to us all why you posted a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" that appears to correlate CO2 content of the atmosphere and magnetic field strength.