Is climate change causing more severe storms?

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #50 on: 07/04/2016 16:52:54 »
Climate change is politics!
FALSE.

From Wikipedia:

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

"The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is a scientific intergovernmental body under the auspices of the United Nations, set up at the request of member governments.

"The IPCC does not carry out its own original research, nor does it do the work of monitoring climate or related phenomena itself. The IPCC bases its assessment on the published literature, which includes peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed sources.

"Thousands of scientists and other experts contribute (on a voluntary basis, without payment from the IPCC) to writing and reviewing reports, which are then reviewed by governments. IPCC reports contain a "Summary for Policymakers", which is subject to line-by-line approval by delegates from all participating governments. Typically this involves the governments of more than 120 countries.

"The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change, producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments."

Here's a list of member nations, grand total, 194:

https://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/ipcc-principles/ipcc-countries.pdf

That rules out political motives, because if every country in the world is represented, every form of government is represented, not just the liberally biased ones.

Only people with political motives would call into question the motives of the IPCC.
« Last Edit: 07/04/2016 16:56:05 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #51 on: 07/04/2016 20:01:16 »
I spent more than 10 years in the field of hydrology and I have already told you that water vapour drives the temperature. But hey you know best.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #52 on: 07/04/2016 21:00:22 »
The IPCC provides an internationally accepted authority on climate change, producing reports which have the agreement of leading climate scientists and the consensus of participating governments."

Substitute "the Pope" for IPCC, and "geocentriic universe " for "climate change", then tell me why I should accept the word of authority when the facts do not support it.
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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #53 on: 07/04/2016 21:31:30 »
Craig you have to ask yourself what is about atmospheric water vapour that could decrease the efficiency of natural carbon sinks? If you can answer that question you will reach enlightenment grasshopper.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #55 on: 07/04/2016 23:19:05 »
Now, please explain to us all why you posted a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" that appears to correlate CO2 content of the atmosphere and magnetic field strength.
It doesn't "appear to", it clearly shows a very strong correlation. The point of posting it was, as I have said several times, to point out that correlation does not prove causation. Since you plainly accept that statement in respect of magnetic fields and temperature, why do you cling to the opposite in the case of carbon dioxide? Especially when the evidence is that temperature changes precede CO2 changes, so CO2 cannot be the driver of temperature.
 
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Offline henrycalvin

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #56 on: 08/04/2016 08:26:12 »
Yes it exactly is. Climate has been changing.

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #57 on: 08/04/2016 10:40:24 »
Agreed, but the number and severity of storms, at least according to NOAA, has decreased.

Bloody data, always gets in the way of hypothesis!
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Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #58 on: 08/04/2016 12:09:05 »
The current climate change is connected to an El Nino affect, which is a large pocket of warm water in the oceans near the equator. A La Nina is based on cooler water and can also impact climate.

This is a March 2016 quote from NOAA;

Quote
A weakening El Niño continues. Tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures are still much warmer than average, but subsurface temperatures—El Niño's "heat source"—have declined sharply. Tropical rainfall across the Pacific remains disrupted: suppressed over Indonesia, enhanced farther east. Transition to ENSO-neutral is likely by early summer 2016, with close to a 50% chance for La Niña to develop by fall.


If El Nino impacts climate and the current subsurface ocean temperature is falling, how does CO2 cool the sub surface of the ocean, with CO2 in the rise? 

If you look at the formation of El Nino and La Nina, it is due, in part, to changes in wind direction? How does CO2 cause the wind to change directions? Also El Nino and La Nina differ by the upwelling of cold ocean water from the depths. How does CO2 regulate the cold water upwelling? This can be seen in the second figure.




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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #59 on: 08/04/2016 14:14:29 »
I spent more than 10 years in the field of hydrology and I have already told you that water vapour drives the temperature. But hey you know best.
FALSE. Water doesn't evaporate until it gets warm. To get water vapor, you have to have a rise in temperature FIRST.

That's how physics ACTUALLY works.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #60 on: 08/04/2016 14:21:52 »
Substitute "the Pope" for IPCC, and "geocentriic universe " for "climate change", then tell me why I should accept the word of authority when the facts do not support it.
On the contrary, substitute "alancalverd and a handful of crackpots" for the IPCC and the result is a thread full of nonsense, weak arguments and cherry-picked facts.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #61 on: 08/04/2016 14:24:44 »
Now, please explain to us all why you posted a graph compiled by "neurotheologists" that appears to correlate CO2 content of the atmosphere and magnetic field strength.
It doesn't "appear to", it clearly shows a very strong correlation. The point of posting it was, as I have said several times, to point out that correlation does not prove causation.
FALSE.

cor·re·la·tion
ˌkôrəˈlāSH(ə)n/
noun
a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.

There is NO correlation between CO2 increases and a decrease in earth's magnetic field.

For you to suggest there is is bad science.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #62 on: 08/04/2016 14:32:32 »
How does CO2 cool the sub surface of the ocean, with CO2 in the rise? 

How does CO2 cause the wind to change directions?

How does CO2 regulate the cold water upwelling?
The properties of a CO2 molecule are such that it absorbs infrared (heat) radiation and re-emits it, adding insulative properties to the atmosphere.

1) That does NOT cool the subsurface of the ocean.

2) That COULD change the direction of wind currents.

3) That does NOT regulate cold water upwelling.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #63 on: 08/04/2016 14:39:24 »
Agreed, but the number and severity of storms, at least according to NOAA, has decreased.

Bloody data, always gets in the way of hypothesis!
What data? You've given us your opinion as a moderator without a link to data. That's called an "argumentum ab auctoritate."

Here's a link to some data that contradicts that argument:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-storms

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Offline agyejy

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #64 on: 08/04/2016 14:44:04 »
Pretty much just because I was exploring the site I found this:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme-weather-global-warming.htm

at skeptical science. Now while the link between say severe storms is still less than absolute the link with heatwaves and extremes or participation (droughts and probably floods) have been established to a pretty high degree of certainty. As usual the author does a good job with relevant citations.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #65 on: 08/04/2016 15:28:41 »
Pretty much just because I was exploring the site I found this:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/extreme-weather-global-warming.htm

at skeptical science. Now while the link between say severe storms is still less than absolute the link with heatwaves and extremes or participation (droughts and probably floods) have been established to a pretty high degree of certainty. As usual the author does a good job with relevant citations.
Yes. I see an analogous phenomenon in another area of physics here: wave function superposition. When wave functions superpose, this can cause, for example, an alpha particle to appear "outside" the range of influence of its radioactive nucleus. Or, if you add too much energy to an electron, those superposed functions will similarly allow the electron to escape by appearing outside the nucleus' range.

Weather can be modeled using a system of equations. When those functions superpose, or reinforce each other, the results can be extreme weather "outside" the normal range of weather. When you increase the intensity of one of those functions, for example by adding carbon dioxide or cranking up the temperature a bit, that can lead to even greater weather extremes.
« Last Edit: 08/04/2016 15:35:26 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #66 on: 08/04/2016 17:02:33 »
You are obsessed with carbon dioxide. Do you have OCD by any chance. So you read some books. Big deal. I bet those authors were never anywhere near live datasets. Climate change sells books because it is trendy. No vested interest there then.

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #67 on: 08/04/2016 20:06:22 »
Craig you have to ask yourself what is about atmospheric water vapour that could decrease the efficiency of natural carbon sinks? If you can answer that question you will reach enlightenment grasshopper.

Let's make it a general quiz!! Might as well have fun with it.

I'll go for plants not growing as quickly on cloudy days. Obviously it's a bit weak but surely a factor somewhere...

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Offline alancalverd

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #68 on: 08/04/2016 23:37:35 »
Agreed, but the number and severity of storms, at least according to NOAA, has decreased.

Bloody data, always gets in the way of hypothesis!
What data? You've given us your opinion as a moderator without a link to data. That's called an "argumentum ab auctoritate."

Here's a link to some data that contradicts that argument:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-storms
NCA lists a whole lot of models and hypotheses. NOAA (whose graph I posted a few days ago) lists actual storms.
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Offline puppypower

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #69 on: 09/04/2016 12:16:31 »
How does CO2 cool the sub surface of the ocean, with CO2 in the rise? 

How does CO2 cause the wind to change directions?

How does CO2 regulate the cold water upwelling?
The properties of a CO2 molecule are such that it absorbs infrared (heat) radiation and re-emits it, adding insulate properties to the atmosphere.



1) That does NOT cool the subsurface of the ocean.

2) That COULD change the direction of wind currents.

3) That does NOT regulate cold water upwelling.

So the various things that induce the El Nino, which has a direct impact on climate change; such a heavy rains in California and drought elsewhere, is not directly traceable to CO2?

It is easier to equate climate change to El Nino and La Nina affects; oscillation, the dynamics of which are not induced by CO2.

All one needs to do is see if El Nino ever occurred more than 100 years ago, when CO2 was lower.

If you do a Google search, the El Nino oscillation was first discovered in 1795. Modern science places it claim in about 1924. Climate change occurs with or without CO2.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #70 on: 09/04/2016 14:52:18 »
Climate change occurs with or without CO2.
Hard to say that when the atmosphere has contained CO2 for hundreds of millions of years. From Wikipedia:

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is an important trace gas in Earth's atmosphere currently constituting about 0.04% (400 parts per million) of the atmosphere.[1][2] Despite its relatively small concentration, CO2 is a potent greenhouse gas and plays a vital role in regulating Earth's surface temperature through radiative forcing and the greenhouse effect.[3] Reconstructions show that concentrations of CO2 in the atmosphere have varied, ranging from as high as 7,000 parts per million during the Cambrian period about 500 million years ago to as low as 180 parts per million during the Quaternary glaciation of the last two million years.

The current episode of global warming is attributed to increasing emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases into Earth's atmosphere. The global annual mean concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by more than 40% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, from 280 ppm in the mid-18th century to 402 ppm as of 2016.[4] The present concentration is the highest in at least the past 800,000 years[5] and likely the highest in the past 20 million years.[6]
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 14:58:09 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #71 on: 09/04/2016 15:07:39 »
You are obsessed with carbon dioxide. Do you have OCD by any chance. So you read some books. Big deal. I bet those authors were never anywhere near live datasets. Climate change sells books because it is trendy. No vested interest there then.
You have yet to make one statement that's backed up by empirical evidence. You are a pathetic, uneducated joke with no discernible skills beyond trolling people that know more about science than you. Your vested interest is self-interest, and I will not let selfish brain farts take out the whole human race just because you are too stupid and politically brainwashed to accept an obvious conclusion: burning stuff creates heat.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 15:09:52 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #72 on: 09/04/2016 15:12:09 »
Let's make it a general quiz!!
Oh, you mean like all the quizzes and exams I took in college before graduating with honors?

Take a quiz yourself, and the class to go along with it, then come back when you actually know something about this besides what you just Googled.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #73 on: 09/04/2016 15:23:06 »
Agreed, but the number and severity of storms, at least according to NOAA, has decreased.

Bloody data, always gets in the way of hypothesis!
What data? You've given us your opinion as a moderator without a link to data. That's called an "argumentum ab auctoritate."

Here's a link to some data that contradicts that argument:

http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/report/our-changing-climate/changes-storms
NCA lists a whole lot of models and hypotheses. NOAA (whose graph I posted a few days ago) lists actual storms.
That's not the point. Why do you always miss the point? Again, as you can see in the conversation above, you stated that "the number and severity of storms, at least according to NOAA, has decreased." My source says, "Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward."

I've got news for you. Hurricanes are warm weather phenomena. It takes a warm ocean to get a hurricane going, and a warm ocean to keep it going. It's no coincidence that most hurricanes follow a track toward our part of the world that starts just off the coast of Africa's Sahara desert where the ocean is nice and warm.

Now, why would WINTER storms be increasing in intensity? Hurricane Sandy was out of season, 1,100 miles across at its largest, a monster storm by any measure.

Any guesses why the ocean would be warmer in the wintertime than it used to be?

This place seriously needs an eye-rolling icon.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #74 on: 09/04/2016 17:34:16 »
You are obsessed with carbon dioxide. Do you have OCD by any chance. So you read some books. Big deal. I bet those authors were never anywhere near live datasets. Climate change sells books because it is trendy. No vested interest there then.
You have yet to make one statement that's backed up by empirical evidence. You are a pathetic, uneducated joke with no discernible skills beyond trolling people that know more about science than you. Your vested interest is self-interest, and I will not let selfish brain farts take out the whole human race just because you are too stupid and politically brainwashed to accept an obvious conclusion: burning stuff creates heat.

You are very skilled at belittling those you feel threatened by. Especially when you realise that they have experience in the field you want to portray yourself as an expert in. The climate is changing and yes we have had some impact on that but it would have been an upward trend without our input.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #75 on: 09/04/2016 20:26:37 »
You are very skilled at belittling those you feel threatened by. Especially when you realise that they have experience in the field you want to portray yourself as an expert in. The climate is changing and yes we have had some impact on that but it would have been an upward trend without our input.
Yeah, that's something I learned in forums. I'm not this way in real life, only in the virtual world. And I learned from the best. You can only be so insulting when you're dumb, but people in science forums are a little bit smarter than average, so trolls can be pretty skilled.

I tend to see this in terms of science. Consider Newton's famous axiom, for every action, there is a reaction. For example, maybe you shouldn't have intruded in the conversation and patronized me with your condescending little attitude, interjecting a bunch of passive-aggessive flame posts in a row, and stuck to the subject of science like I suggested, meat head.

Now, as far as the rest of your post, FALSE:

http://climatenewsnetwork.net/why-we-should-be-cooling-not-warming/

Then, there's the graph I keep posting over and over:

https://robertscribbler.files.wordpress.com/2014/04/ice-core-co2-record-800000-years.jpg

Historically, it would appear that a peak is generally followed by a trough, not a dramatic spike.

At this point, I'm just hoping you show signs of a dramatic spike in brain activity.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2016 20:29:44 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #76 on: 09/04/2016 22:57:31 »
The reason you have issues in public forums is three fold. Firstly your arrogance. Secondly your resort to insults. Thirdly your inability to engage in a reasonable debate and an unwillingness to consider other viewpoints.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #77 on: 09/04/2016 23:40:15 »
For those with more open minds here is a research paper on the role played by water vapour on the climate. It is not as expected. Like many other phenomena, the climatic system can be counter intuitive.
arxiv.org/abs/0908.4410

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #78 on: 10/04/2016 08:06:44 »
Quote
and we illustrate the circulation changes through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. This allows us to explore a continuum of climates, constrain macroscopic laws governing this climatic continuum, and place past and possible future climate changes in a broader context.

Yeah, who needs actual real world data when you have a computer to make you look clever?

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #79 on: 10/04/2016 12:26:46 »
Since a computer model has to be predictive it cannot simply play back raw data. It has to base a simulation on analysis of the instrumentation data.

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #80 on: 10/04/2016 13:25:02 »
Since a computer model has to be predictive it cannot simply play back raw data. It has to base a simulation on analysis of the instrumentation data.

By the time you have put in the necessary assumptions to make your simplified model you are telling yourself whatever you wanted to in the first place.

The climate is very complex and doing such a simulation is always going to give results that cannot be trusted.

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Offline agyejy

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #81 on: 10/04/2016 14:11:59 »
Since a computer model has to be predictive it cannot simply play back raw data. It has to base a simulation on analysis of the instrumentation data.

By the time you have put in the necessary assumptions to make your simplified model you are telling yourself whatever you wanted to in the first place.

The climate is very complex and doing such a simulation is always going to give results that cannot be trusted.


Well that is just patently ridiculous:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm


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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #82 on: 10/04/2016 15:50:51 »
The reason you have issues in public forums is three fold. Firstly your arrogance. Secondly your resort to insults. Thirdly your inability to engage in a reasonable debate and an unwillingness to consider other viewpoints.
I've asked you several times now to shut the hell up if you're not going to talk about science. Nobody cares about your half baked psychoanalysis, halfwit.

At least I'm honest. You thinly veil your insults and arrogance as you pretend to be on your best behavior, trolling people from the safety of your own home like a little pansy.

There ARE no other viewpoints. When you burn stuff, you get heat and carbon dioxide that helps trap heat. End of story.
« Last Edit: 10/04/2016 15:56:13 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #83 on: 10/04/2016 16:54:34 »
Since a computer model has to be predictive it cannot simply play back raw data. It has to base a simulation on analysis of the instrumentation data.

By the time you have put in the necessary assumptions to make your simplified model you are telling yourself whatever you wanted to in the first place.

The climate is very complex and doing such a simulation is always going to give results that cannot be trusted.


Well that is just patently ridiculous:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm

So why do you think the climate models don't work?

I'd say it a combination of chaos and wrong assumptions. But do tell me what it reall is.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #84 on: 10/04/2016 17:06:29 »
So why do you think the climate models don't work?

I'd say it a combination of chaos and wrong assumptions. But do tell me what it reall is.
Do you even know the difference between a linear and a non-linear system? I'm going to guess no.

News flash: Climate is not random, and neither is weather. There's order in that randomness. Most systems in nature exhibit non-linear characteristics. However, non-linear equations are hard to solve, so mathematicians approximate them with linear equations.

Then you come along and start quoting those mathematicians without even knowing what they are talking about.

That's "wrong assumption" number one. Edify yourself:

http://www.bibliotecapleyades.net/ciencia/ciencia_climatechange25.htm

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Offline agyejy

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #85 on: 10/04/2016 17:51:22 »
So why do you think the climate models don't work?

I'd say it a combination of chaos and wrong assumptions. But do tell me what it reall is.


So I guess you don't read cited sources. Here is quote:

Quote from: http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm
So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model. All other known forcings are adequate in explaining temperature variations prior to the rise in temperature over the last thirty years, while none of them are capable of explaining the rise in the past thirty years.  CO2 does explain that rise, and explains it completely without any need for additional, as yet unknown forcings.

Where models have been running for sufficient time, they have also been proved to make accurate predictions. For example, the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo allowed modellers to test the accuracy of models by feeding in the data about the eruption. The models successfully predicted the climatic response after the eruption. Models also correctly predicted other effects subsequently confirmed by observation, including greater warming in the Arctic and over land, greater warming at night, and stratospheric cooling.

The past is no different than the future. If you give you model the set of parameters from today and nothing else and it retrodicts yesterday and all previous days for which you have data then you can be fairly sure your model is good. If you model later correctly predicts the changes that occur due to a volcanic eruption you can be even more sure your model is good. Clearly the climate models work otherwise they wouldn't be getting these things right.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #86 on: 10/04/2016 19:47:35 »
The reason you have issues in public forums is three fold. Firstly your arrogance. Secondly your resort to insults. Thirdly your inability to engage in a reasonable debate and an unwillingness to consider other viewpoints.
I've asked you several times now to shut the hell up if you're not going to talk about science. Nobody cares about your half baked psychoanalysis, halfwit.

At least I'm honest. You thinly veil your insults and arrogance as you pretend to be on your best behavior, trolling people from the safety of your own home like a little pansy.

There ARE no other viewpoints. When you burn stuff, you get heat and carbon dioxide that helps trap heat. End of story.

For as long as you are being disrespectful I will call you out on it. I won't call you names. I will simply point out the defects in your character that make you so objectionable.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Re: Is climate change causing more severe storms?
« Reply #87 on: 11/04/2016 14:03:28 »
For as long as you are being disrespectful I will call you out on it. I won't call you names. I will simply point out the defects in your character that make you so objectionable.
There's nothing respectful about interrupting a conversation about science to not talk about science, so as long as you keep wasting everyone's time doing that, I'm going to keep calling you names, more on.

You don't learn very quickly, do you?
« Last Edit: 13/04/2016 14:15:32 by Craig W. Thomson »