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Quote from: Colin2B on 05/07/2015 18:36:28Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:16:51I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,You give up without having read and understood our posts. For that reason you will never understand why you are wrong, and you will never learn maths and probability.A pity, because you could have.oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?

Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:16:51I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,You give up without having read and understood our posts. For that reason you will never understand why you are wrong, and you will never learn maths and probability.A pity, because you could have.

I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,

Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:48:13Quote from: Colin2B on 05/07/2015 18:36:28Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:16:51I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,You give up without having read and understood our posts. For that reason you will never understand why you are wrong, and you will never learn maths and probability.A pity, because you could have.oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?4/53 is correct for every deck.100 cards you get 100/13 aces. i see your fishing trip is very successful, good job bro!

Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:48:13oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?4/52 is correct for every deck.100 cards you get 100/13 aces. i see your fishing trip is very successful, good job bro!

oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?

7.69230769231≠0.07692307692

Quote from: jccc on 05/07/2015 19:18:54Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:48:13oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?4/52 is correct for every deck.100 cards you get 100/13 aces. i see your fishing trip is very successful, good job bro!jccc is absolutely correct here.

Quote from: jccc on 05/07/2015 19:18:54Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:48:13oh but I understand.You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?4/52 is correct for every deck.100 cards you get 100/13 aces. i see your fishing trip is very successful, good job bro!jccc is absolutely correct here.Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 19:23:587.69230769231≠0.07692307692 No, it is exactly 100 times bigger (because you're drawing 100 cards, not 1)...

I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?..No, you are only drawing one card from 100 cards, the same as choosing a deck from 100 pre-shuffled decks and taking the top card.

jccc is rightConsider yToss a coin. 1/2 chance for any face value H or T. Toss 100 times still 1/2 each throw. Toss ∞ times still 1/2 each throw. yes you can get multiple heads in 100 throws but they even out over a large number of throws so in 100 throws you are more likely to get 50 H and 50 T.Now throw a dice. 1/6 chance of any face value. Throw 100 times still 1/6 each throw. Throw ∞ times still 1/6 each throw. Again evens out over a large number of throws.Now throw a 52 sided dice with a card value painted on each face. Better still deal a shuffled pack and choose the top card. 1/52. As with the coin and 6 sided dice you can get repeats but they even out. The probabilities or odds are not unknown.Probability of repeats? 4 H in a row 1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2=(1/2)^{4}4 ace of diamonds in a row (1/52)^{4}= not very likely.100 coin tosses you are more likely to get 50 H and 50 T.Draw top card from 100 decks, then you are likely to have 100/13 aces. In reality, you will get some slight variations from these, but over a large number eg >300 the actual numbers get closer to the calculated probabilities.These are not unknown probabilities, they are known and understood.Happy fishing by the way.PS good one jccc you understand probability, we'll have you understanding QM soon. Probability of electron etc []EDIT:Quote from: Thebox on 06/07/2015 06:15:31I take the 100 unknown top cards of each deck, how many of the 100 cards are aces?..No, you are only drawing one card from 100 cards, the same as choosing a deck from 100 pre-shuffled decks and taking the top card.These are not the same question. On the 1st jccc is right.On the 2nd read what ChiralSPO and I have written above then consider:If you toss a coin 99 times what is the probability of a H on the next toss? it is 1/2.Now get someone to toss a coin 100 times and write down the outcomes. Then you choose one of them, if you choose #100 then the probability it is a H is still 1/2. You are not choosing from 100, you are choosing from 2 possibilities, either it is a H or it is a T = 1/2.So if you choose a deck from 100 preshuffled decks the probability of an ace top card is 4/52. The 99 other decks are irrelevant, you are only choosing this one.I think you are confusing probability of singular events with that of combinational events. Don't feel bad about it, this is a very common error and leads to people believing that if they have just tossed 5 H in a row, the next is more likely to be a T.

You are not considering that the coin is already tossed 100 times.

You are not considering the already set unknown sequence of a deck of cards.

The top card is not random, it is a unknown value.

Once the top card is set, it is set and nothing can change this.

You are not picking from 1-52, you are picking from 1-100 of unknown variant quantities.

I ask you to take the top card of each deck , and discard the other cards of the decks, at this stage there is still a 4/52 chance that any of the two cards is an ace.

I have a quick look, and can confirm that one of the cards is an ace. Please state the probability of the two cards now

I ask where is your own thought and consideration for the talking point?

I wish to discuss x is not equal to y, I have shown axiom logic and models and maths.

All you guys seem to do is say no, and resort back to present information, this is not really discussing my point or even trying to agree with my point.

You instantly cast something out because you do not understand it. I know from your posts that you can not see it or visualise it what I am actually referring to.

Quote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 15:50:19I ask where is your own thought and consideration for the talking point? These are my own thoughts.I have looked at probability, I have done the experiments and the maths and understood.Quote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 15:50:19I wish to discuss x is not equal to y, I have shown axiom logic and models and maths. And we have shown by logic, models and maths that we disagree with youQuote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 15:50:19All you guys seem to do is say no, and resort back to present information, this is not really discussing my point or even trying to agree with my point. If you tell me there are no fish in the sea, I have to disagree with you.If you tell me there is no ocean between UK and US, I have to disagree with you.I have to be true to myself, I cannot agree with false 'facts', false logic or false maths.Quote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 15:50:19You instantly cast something out because you do not understand it. I know from your posts that you can not see it or visualise it what I am actually referring to.No, I can visualise what you are trying to say and I understand it, but I also understand why you are seeing it incorrectly.Again I cannot agree with falsehoods and it would not be respectful to you if I did.

the small blind contains 7.69% worth of aces. compared to 4/52

it is possible that all 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000 decks have an ace as the top card.

Quote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 19:01:05the small blind contains 7.69% worth of aces. compared to 4/52My dear Box, at last we are in agreement.Yes 7.69% does indeed = 4/52Now you can see that the probability in the y direction is the same as in the x direction.P(y)=P(x)y=xNow at last you understand what we are saying and we can begin to explore the ways in which x and y are different.Quote from: Thebox on 07/07/2015 19:01:05it is possible that all 80,658,175,170,943,878,571,660,636,856,403,766,975,289,505,440,883,277,824,000,000,000,000 decks have an ace as the top card.Yes, I pointed this out to you many posts ago. However, as I also pointed out it is extremely unlikely to happen in anybody's lifetime.There has never been any question that there are different sequences in the x and y directions, the problem has been your misinterpretation of the probabilities and the effect they have on the games you play. You asked "is this maths correct" and we have explained that it is not correct.

I think you are confusing probability of singular events with that of combinational events. Don't feel bad about it, this is a very common error and leads to people believing that if they have just tossed 5 H in a row, the next is more likely to be a T.

Quote from: Colin2B on 06/07/2015 09:18:31I think you are confusing probability of singular events with that of combinational events. Don't feel bad about it, this is a very common error and leads to people believing that if they have just tossed 5 H in a row, the next is more likely to be a T.Good point! In fact if you have just tossed 5H, it's quite likely that the coin is biassed so the next toss is more likely to be H than T!

, I would bet you could not throw another heads,

Quote from: Thebox on 08/07/2015 17:31:13, I would bet you could not throw another heads, Gotcha! You are ignoring the evidence in favour of your preconception. The perfect mug.

I am saying there is possibly more or less aces in the Y axis, which has been agreed with, and a player could ''quantum leap'' through space-time to receive another ace, and on the reverse a player could quantum leap through space-time and receive no aces ever.

QuoteI am saying there is possibly more or less aces in the Y axis, which has been agreed with, and a player could ''quantum leap'' through space-time to receive another ace, and on the reverse a player could quantum leap through space-time and receive no aces ever. This is entirely due to the randomness of the distribution of aces. It is known as the luck of the draw, or the consequence of shuffling, and is what turns poker from an algorithm into a game.However your misappropriation of the term "quantum leap" is deplorable in a science forum. What you are saying is that if you sit at a random table, there is a 1/13 chance that the first card you receive will be an ace, and the probability of it happening twice in two successive independent shuffles is 1/169.

4/52 = 1/13If P = probability of something happening in one trial, the probability of it happening n times in succession in independent trials = P^n.So probability of the first card being an ace in two (and only two) independent trials = (1/13)^2 = 1/169 A posteriori analysis of a small number of trials does not give you the probability of an event. Choosing or constructing two or three possible sequences tells you nothing about the likely outcome of any actual trial, let alone the probability of a given outcome in sequential trials. For the very last time: if the shuffles are independent (a) the probability of an outcome is exactly the same in each shuffle, by definition of independent, and (b) the statistics of actual outcomes only tend towards the calculated probability for a very large number of trials, by definition of probability.Belief in anything else is the first step on the road to gambling bankruptcy.

I do not why you think I am agreeing with the maths

You have got 100 decks of shuffled cards in front of you, and you are asked to draw the top card from one of the decks, what is the chance it is an ace?i bet you say 4/52 which is incorrect.

..........column 1 to the small blind contains 7.69% worth of aces. compared to 4/52

I forgot science likes simple

nnnnnnnnnwe know left to right of each row is still 1/3, but we do not know the columns values.

Thank you Colin, interesting that probabilities may not be the answer I am looking for,

Quote from: alancalverd on 09/07/2015 00:04:51Quote from: Thebox on 08/07/2015 17:31:13, I would bet you could not throw another heads, Gotcha! You are ignoring the evidence in favour of your preconception. The perfect mug.You have not got me, I do not ignore solid evidence, I know the coin still has 1/2 chance.

Thank you Alan and Colin for your persistence. Your maths is accurate and true if y1,y2 and y3 were all coming to the same table.

Quote from: Thebox on 13/07/2015 14:52:42Thank you Alan and Colin for your persistence. Your maths is accurate and true if y1,y2 and y3 were all coming to the same table.No, that's incorrect. As I explained in my post, deck skipping (spacing, interception or timing as you call it) does not affect the outcome.If you have an infinite number of decks and you wish to choose 3 for each table it does not matter which order you distribute them in or by what timing. You could take the 5th, the 10th and the 81st for one table; the 93rd, 4th and 100006th for the 2nd table etc. All are as equal as if you had taken them in order 1 2 3 4 5 6 etc.If you had understood my post you would realise that what determines the randomness is not the distribution in the y direction, but the random shuffle of the decks. This makes all decks equal from a probability point of view.Any other belief is not probability. And as I have said before you cannot divide a probability by time.So let's leave it that I believe in probability and maths, and you believe in something else.

This is not true,they are not equal. y1y2y1y2y1y2That is a completely different distribution pattern if you deck skip . lets change the order, y1y1y1y2y2y2lets change the angle for you y1y1y1y2y2y2t...................tcan you not see the difference to a unified distribution and skipping time distribution?

You receive the first deck out of a stack of 1,000,000 decks, you receive an ace, the next turn in this example 100,000 of the decks have an ace as the second card, what is the chance you will receive a deck that the ace is the second card?

You receive the first deck out of a stack of 1,000,000 decks, you receive an ace, the next turn in this example 100,000 of the decks have an ace as the second card,

Quote from: Thebox on 14/07/2015 16:54:23You receive the first deck out of a stack of 1,000,000 decks, you receive an ace, the next turn in this example 100,000 of the decks have an ace as the second card, If you know this, the decks have probably not been shuffled fairly. Out of 1,000,000 decks the expected number with an ace as second card is 76,923, not 100,000. A 24% discrepancy over a million trials is good evidence of an irregularity.

It is also interesting to note that if TB understood probability he would also understand that even assuming we know the higher incidence of aces, deck skipping has no effect on the probability of receiving an ace.

It doesn't matter where you sit or when the cards are dealt. The probability of receiving an ace in any chair at any nominated point in any deal is 1/13.

None of the numbers in the set you call y is 4. So what? If you write down any finite set of integers, you can always find an integer that is not a member of that set. And you can also find a number that is. So what?

You can't "play y". In poker you play one hand at a time. Obviously x is not equal to y because you are comparing apples and chickens.There is no certainty in a fair shuffle, but because y is infinite and x is finite, the actual distribution in y is more likely to be close to the calculated probability than the actual distribution in any one x. This kind of second-order statistics comes under the heading of confidence limits:the greater the number of trials, the greater the confidence we can have that the actual and expected distributions will converge.However if all the trials are independent random shuffles, the expected distributions must be identical.

the chance of receiving a deck that the second card is an ace using 1,000,000 decks, is obviously (76,923/1,000,000)/t= 0.076923/t and then once the choice is made of deck (4/52)/t=0.07692307692.This is all good as long as no other tables are involved.(0.07692307692/t)(/n)/t where n is table.added - sorry that does not work, P(x)=0.07692307692∩n..................t

What do you think? You could offer genuine scientific proof of your theory.

OK, let's try this. It's pretty clear that you want to be dealt a winning hand. It also seems that you have an idea that, having entered the game and played a hand, you can maximise your probability of being dealt a winning hand by not playing the next hand, but choosing another one.So please complete the sentence "in order to maximise the probability of being dealt a winning hand on my second play, I should...."

The reason is simple. Live games do not employ truly random shuffles.

The reason is simple. Live games do not employ truly random shuffles. Cards stick together to some extent, the dealer's fingers are not symmetrical, the cards are collected in groups....in fact in some games the cards are never shuffled but just cut so the hands continue to improve, whereas your beneficiaries have gone to great lengths to show how the online game is completely random.

truly random has no probabilities

Online it is possible to receive 100 aces in 100 hands from using a Y axis.

Quote from: Thebox on 28/07/2015 06:23:26 truly random has no probabilities No, there are still probabilities that can be calculated. Anyway, random what?Quote from: Thebox on 28/07/2015 06:23:26 Online it is possible to receive 100 aces in 100 hands from using a Y axis.Possible is not the same as probable.

Likely and unlikely spring to mind, it is likely after receiving an ace in a live game, that the next hand you will be unlikely to get an ace although not impossible.

x=1/52y=2000/100000they are obviously not equal.

if there were 100000 decks and 2000 top cards were the ace of diamonds, I have a 2000/100000 chance of receiving a top card of the ace of diamonds, I do not believe that is 1/52