Are climate skeptics right that there is no link between CO2 levels and temperature?

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Offline Bored chemist

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You seem to have forgotten what you said in the first place that kicked off the debate.
It's the bit where Tim told you the difference between big an small and you pretended it wasn't.
No, the amount of heat produced directly by human activity is utterly tiny in comparison with the heat budget of nature.
FALSE. The earth's life forms spent hundreds of millions of years taking solar energy OUT of the system. That's what oil and coal are: dead plants and animals.
I pretended it wasn't what? The difference between big and small? That statement makes no sense. Do you even think about what you are posting, or do you just rattle off any sort of nonsense you like?

You're wrong. Every lump of coal in the ground represents solar energy that did not enter the atmosphere or warm the ground under a tree, but rather was stored in plants via photosynthesis. After hundreds of millions of years, those dead trees add up to a lot of stored solar energy. Releasing it all at once adds up to something significant ENOUGH. To suggest otherwise is preposterous.
Tim told you the difference between big and small.
The energy from the sun is big. The energy from fossil fuels is small.
You pretended that the direct heating effect wasn't small and you pretended that the heating from the sun wasn't big.

In particular, re "Releasing it all at once adds up to something significant ENOUGH. "
As I pointed out, even current rates of use (which means releasing as much of it "at once" as we ever have) ,mare small compared to the heat from the sun.


and you really ought to answer the question about the entropy change - otherwise it makes it look like you don't have a damned clue what you were on about and you can't do the simple calculation- even after someone has told you the answer.
Why are you so reluctant?
Is it because you can't?
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Offline agyejy

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You're wrong. Every lump of coal in the ground represents solar energy that did not enter the atmosphere or warm the ground under a tree, but rather was stored in plants via photosynthesis. After hundreds of millions of years, those dead trees add up to a lot of stored solar energy. Releasing it all at once adds up to something significant ENOUGH. To suggest otherwise is preposterous.

Except that I just calculated the magnitude of the impact of releasing that energy at the rate humans are currently releasing it and found that it was literally not measurable and therefore cannot be considered significant by any acceptable definition of the word significant.

Citation, please.

Oh, never mind:

http://cleantechnica.com/2013/08/26/us-wastes-61-86-of-its-energy/

At any rate, Japanese car companies had several models that got more than 50 mpg, way back in the early 1980's. Now, after two and a half decades of technological development, we can barely squeeze 40 mpg out of a hybrid. Guess who's to blame for that? I'll give you a hint: highly profitable oil companies.

The best possible Carnot engine operating over a realistic temperature range would at best still reject about 40% of the energy fed to it as waste heat. This is the thermodynamic limit for any heat engine and real engines are always going to be significantly less efficient than this because they operate far from thermal equilibrium. Increasing the fuel efficiencies of cars would have reduced the overall amount of energy used by allowing people to drive further on less gas but the overall percentage of waste heat wouldn't have changed all that much. The efficiency of internal combustion engines has pretty much been maximized at this point and further gains in automotive fuel efficiency are mainly about reducing drag/weight and tricks like turning off the engine at stop lights.

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Offline jeffreyH

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If you want to have a science forum you will have to be harsh with your allowance of idiocy. It's sort of OK to have a load of simple questions asked by those who have not done any science but this needs to be in it's own section otherwise more advanced discussions will be drowned out by the noise.
Have you even taken one college science course? You don't seem to recognize your own idiocy, hypocrite. Why don't you take your industry vs. technology argument to the kids table instead of drowning out our adult climate change discussion with nonsense?

You are the furthest from an adult discussion that you could possibly be.
Fixation on the Einstein papers is a good definition of OCD.

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Offline alancalverd

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At any rate, Japanese car companies had several models that got more than 50 mpg, way back in the early 1980's. Now, after two and a half decades of technological development, we can barely squeeze 40 mpg out of a hybrid. Guess who's to blame for that? I'll give you a hint: highly profitable oil companies.

No, mostly Californian legislators. Battery hybrids are a lot heavier for a given power rating than simple internal combustion units, and the statutory reduction in particulate emissions, NOX emissions and lead content have produced significantly lower overall efficiency. Why do you think racing car manufacturers complain about noise limitation? Because everything you add to a car exhaust system makes the engine less efficient.

And of course your 1960s 50 mpg Jap rustbox didn't have airconditioning, power steering, antilock brakes, 4-wheel drive, airbags, auto gearbox, side impact protection, and all the other gubbins that makes its successors go slower.
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Offline Bored chemist

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It doesn't matter what the MPG is - or anything like it.
All the energy ends up as heat, even if 40% of it started off moving a car; when the brakes go on that energy is dissipated as heat.
Some of the fossil fuel is used to generate electricity, but in the end, that too gets degraded to heat; that's why your TV sert gets warm

Ironically, this is the only bit where entropy gets involved, but it doesn't let Craig off the hook.
He should still be able to explain what the entropy change is for the reaction he cited.

I'm really looking forward to it.
« Last Edit: 03/04/2016 17:53:42 by Bored chemist »
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Offline agyejy

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It doesn't matter what the MPG is - or anything like it.
All the energy ends up as heat, even if 40% of it started off moving a car; when the brakes go on that energy is dissipated as heat. Some of the fossil fuel is used to generate electricity, but in the end, that too gets degraded to heat; that's why your TV sert gets warm

Actually a significant amount of the energy not rejected as waste heat by the engine goes into sound, moving the air as the car passes through (some of which might end up as a slight increase in air temp), any net gain in altitude between where the car started and where it stopped (a decrease in altitude actually gives you energy), and any electrical needs the car might have (some of that electrical use becomes heat but you can also get sound both from the radio and other sources as well as chemical energy stored in the battery). Not even 100% of the energy dissipated by breaking ends up as thermal energy. At least some of it goes into the mechanical deformation and grinding of the brake pads and rotors.

As for TV sets certainly some of the input electrical energy becomes heat but not 100%. In a relatively efficient TV set a good portion comes out as visible light. Now some of that visible light will get absorbed and reemitted as infrared radiation but a not insignificant portion will simply be reflected away as ambient scattered light.

Yes thermodynamics says that you can't do anything without generating some amount of waste heat but that doesn't mean every joule of energy you use eventually becomes thermal energy.

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Offline Bored chemist

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Sound doesn't carry indefinitely, it is degraded to heat by air viscosity.
The only energy that escapes from your car is if the lights shine up into the sky- and even that will eventually get degraded to heat when it hits something.
The light from the TV set is absorbed by the walls of the room within microseconds. (how long does it take for the room to get dark once you switch the lights off?)

Eventually you drive the car back home so the net change in gravitational energy is zero.

"Yes thermodynamics says that you can't do anything without generating some amount of waste heat but that doesn't mean every joule of energy you use eventually becomes thermal energy."
Oh yes it does.













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Offline agyejy

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Sound doesn't carry indefinitely, it is degraded to heat by air viscosity.
That can actually take much longer than you'd think depending on the frequency of the sound. Most of the sound energy from cars is below 2 kHz and below that frequency dissipation via the viscosity of air can take many miles. Enough that a good portion of that energy ends up in the upper atmosphere before it is eventually converted to heat. I will concede that if you wait long enough it eventually becomes heat but that heat is very likely not to be anywhere near the surface of the planet.
 
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The only energy that escapes from your car is if the lights shine up into the sky- and even that will eventually get degraded to heat when it hits something.

Some portion of it will but some portion of it will also get reflected away and there is generally a greater chance of going in a roughly upward direction.

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The light from the TV set is absorbed by the walls of the room within microseconds. (how long does it take for the room to get dark once you switch the lights off?)

Unless you happen to really like black windowless rooms a good portion of the light is free to escape through the windows.

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Eventually you drive the car back home so the net change in gravitational energy is zero.

I did address that fact actually.

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"Yes thermodynamics says that you can't do anything without generating some amount of waste heat but that doesn't mean every joule of energy you use eventually becomes thermal energy."
Oh yes it does.

I was trying not to be overly pedantic and confuse the point more than than it already has been. Yes given enough time eventually everything degrades and turns to dust but generally speaking not on a time scale relevant to a typical human lifespan. A good portion of the human use of energy goes into constructing things. Things like buildings, cars, toys, and even increasingly complex molecules. Energy goes into making those things and is stored in those things. Eventually given time they will degrade and eventually that stored energy will become heat but generally speaking not on the time scale of a single human lifetime and certainly not on the scale of a single year. I was attempting to illustrate that in terms of the analysis I did above less than 100% of the energy we use in a year ends up as heat by the end of that year and generally speaking a decent percentage of our energy use is locked up in various things we build for decades or centuries.

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Offline Bored chemist

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I tell you what, rather than carrying on this debate here, why don't we just wait?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heat_death_of_the_universe
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Offline alancalverd

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Let's be really pedantic for a while.

The car moves from A to B. If they are at the same height, there is no change in gravitational potential and as BC has said, you will probably return to A anyway. So where did all the energy go?

Most of it was dissipated as air turbulence and noise. Same as heat - a change in the mean energy of air molecules.

Some was dissipated by the flexing of the tyres - heat.

Some was dissipated by the brakes - heat

Some was dissipated by other frictional losses - heat.

So if you really care about heating the planet, use the phone instead of travelling.

Try telling that to people who attend "environmental" conferences.
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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It doesn't matter what the MPG is - or anything like it.
All the energy ends up as heat, even if 40% of it started off moving a car; when the brakes go on that energy is dissipated as heat.
Some of the fossil fuel is used to generate electricity, but in the end, that too gets degraded to heat; that's why your TV sert gets warm

Ironically, this is the only bit where entropy gets involved, but it doesn't let Craig off the hook.
The only irony here is that you're basically repeating what I've said before [your car hood gets warm, light bulbs get warm, electrical outlets get warm] and using that argument against me now. I said the heat is important, you said it isn't, and here you've said "all the energy ends up as heat." That's what I said. CO2 is a byproduct of combustion, so its insulating property is in fact just another expression of the heat released by combustion. That's what mass/energy conversion does. It changes mass and energy to other forms of mass and energy, and dissipates them in the process. The properties of those dissipated parts becomes part of the environment, and thus contributes to climate change.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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and you really ought to answer the question about the entropy change - otherwise it makes it look like you don't have a damned clue what you were on about and you can't do the simple calculation- even after someone has told you the answer.
Why are you so reluctant?
Is it because you can't?
I am not here to jump through hoops for you. I am not here to prove myself to you. You are not here to test me or to school me. I have been to college. I graduated cum laude.

Do the calculation yourself if it's so simple, or go get YOURSELF a damned clue.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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So if you really care about heating the planet, use the phone instead of travelling.

Try telling that to people who attend "environmental" conferences.
On the other hand, who is going to take Al Gore seriously when he rides a bicycle across country? What is he supposed to do, move into a shack with no electricity in Idaho and send non-environmentalists bombs in the mail?

Stupid argument. Manufacture environmentalists an affordable car that doesn't use gasoline so they have an alternative, like they've been asking for for decades.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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A good portion of the human use of energy goes into constructing things. Things like buildings, cars, toys, and even increasingly complex molecules. Energy goes into making those things and is stored in those things. Eventually given time they will degrade and eventually that stored energy will become heat but generally speaking not on the time scale of a single human lifetime and certainly not on the scale of a single year. I was attempting to illustrate that in terms of the analysis I did above less than 100% of the energy we use in a year ends up as heat by the end of that year and generally speaking a decent percentage of our energy use is locked up in various things we build for decades or centuries.
Yes. We are like trees or dinosaurs in that respect. The energy in many of the things we make, and in our bodies that get buried in graveyards, will become fossil fuels in time. At that point, the energy can be released to contribute to future climate change.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Tim told you the difference between big and small.
The energy from the sun is big. The energy from fossil fuels is small.
You pretended that the direct heating effect wasn't small and you pretended that the heating from the sun wasn't big.
No, you're either lying, or your reading comprehension sucks. I think it's the former. It's pretty clear after a couple of weeks that you're merely trying to piss me off. You don't care about real science. You care about your limited, biased viewpoint, and about twisting and cherry picking facts to support it.

The "big" energy of the sun is just right to support life, has been for millions of years. The "small" energy of human combustion adds to that. It doesn't take much to make a difference. If two people are perfectly balanced on a seesaw, all it takes is a pound or two of extra weight on one side to tip the balance entirely.
« Last Edit: 04/04/2016 17:17:36 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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Who cares what Al Gore does? Neither Jesus nor Karl Marx used a car, but both had a significant influence on human behavior.

Since it takes as much energy to manufacture a car as it uses in its lifetime, making new cars will do more damage to the environment than using old ones. But there's no law preventing environmentalists from manufacturing a car - except the laws of physics, which many seem not to understand.
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Offline alancalverd

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Craig: ask  yourself about the mass loss in the reaction C + O2 → CO2, and please tell us the answers.

Which atom lost mass? Did it lose electrons, protons, neutrons, or something else?

If we now recycle all the atoms by photosynthesis and coal formation, then burn the carbon again, at what point will the carbon and/or oxygen atoms have lost enough mass to become some other species?
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Offline Bored chemist

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so its insulating property is in fact just another expression of the heat released by combustion
No it isn't.
and you really ought to answer the question about the entropy change - otherwise it makes it look like you don't have a damned clue what you were on about and you can't do the simple calculation- even after someone has told you the answer.
Why are you so reluctant?
Is it because you can't?
I am not here to jump through hoops for you. I am not here to prove myself to you. You are not here to test me or to school me. I have been to college. I graduated cum laude.

Do the calculation yourself if it's so simple, or go get YOURSELF a damned clue.
Well, as I said, I already did the calculation but, since you insist.
Let's just recap how we got here.
You started off by saying
" The first and second laws of thermodynamics have nothing to do with causality. "
and I pointed out that, through the arrow of time, they are in fact related.
And you bizarrely misinterpreted that and brought this up
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/ba/Feynman_EP_Annihilation.svg/2000px-Feynman_EP_Annihilation.svg.png
which is the Feynman diagram for electron positron annihilation.
and you said "Are you sure you really want to go there? You already look pretty silly discussing your area of expertise, and I know A LOT more about physics than chemistry."

so, since you were off any sensible view of the point I said
"Yes! I'm sure I want to go there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arrow_of_time
rather than on some random tangent about Feynman diagrams (which, BTW, have precious little to do with entropy)"
to bring it back
Now, just remember I pointed out that the diagram has little to do with entropy.
You insisted it was, and that's the point wher I first asked you to prove it.

"If you want to show that I'm wrong and that you are right about this "When particles interact as per creation/annihilation events pictured in Feynmann diagrams, YES, there IS entropy."
Just tell me what the entropy change is for that reaction."

And I wonder if, at that point you realised your mistake; but it seems not.
Even when I was saying things like "I'm really looking forward to you posting the result of the calculation."
You didn't realise, did you?
You can't have or I really don't think you would have said "Burning logs is related to the thread topic. Your question is not. Answer it yourself."
Now I'm a bit surprised by that.
You have already lost the argument about combustion because the standard entropy change for combustion of, for example, hydrogen , methane or carbon monoxide is negative- the system loses entropy, yet here you are, once again pretending that the entropy change of a burning log is relevant.

But this bit " Answer it yourself" was either very brave, or very  dumb.

Now I'd just like to remind you of something I said earlier in the thread.

"here's the 2nd law together with the bit that says that reversible processes don't have an entropy change.

The second law of thermodynamics states that for a thermodynamically defined process to actually occur, the sum of the entropies of the participating bodies must increase. In an idealized limiting case, that of a reversible process, this sum remains unchanged."
(That's a quote from somewhere- WIKI I think)

OK, so there's something really odd about thermodynamically reversible processes when it comes to entropy.
(I think some peole have guessed the punchline by now).
and here's the reaction you chose to illustrate entropy. (Heaven knows why- it has nothing to do with the greenhouse effect or anything like it)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron%E2%80%93positron_annihilation

And here's the bit which tells you something that, if you knew about entropy, would have set big sirens off telling you to be careful.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electron%E2%80%93positron_annihilation#Reverse_reaction

Yes, the reaction you used to illustrate your understanding of entropy, and which you tried to insist had something to do with the issue- even after I pointed it out- is a thermodynamically perfectly reversible reaction.

The reaction you chose to illustrate entropy is (as you had already been told- because I had explained it) one of the relatively small number of reactions where the entropy change is exactly zero.

Do you understand the significance of that?
It make it absolutely clear that you don't understand what you are on about.




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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Craig: ask  yourself about the mass loss in the reaction C + O2 → CO2, and please tell us the answers.

Which atom lost mass? Did it lose electrons, protons, neutrons, or something else?

If we now recycle all the atoms by photosynthesis and coal formation, then burn the carbon again, at what point will the carbon and/or oxygen atoms have lost enough mass to become some other species?
bind·ing en·er·gy
nounPHYSICS
the energy that holds a nucleus together, equal to the mass defect of the nucleus.

When you join particles together, that takes binding energy. Taking them apart releases the binding energy.

The entropy law assures me that last sentence of yours is ridiculous.

Again, either you're scientifically clueless, or you obfuscate just because you like to argue, both inexcusable for a moderator of a physics forum.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Do you understand the significance of that?
It makes it absolutely clear that you don't understand what you are on about.
Here's what I understand: The insignificance of you. You don't have a real name. You don't have any credentials. All you have is a sock puppet account and a lot of confirmation biased arguments.


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Offline alancalverd

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bind·ing en·er·gy
nounPHYSICS
the energy that holds a nucleus together, equal to the mass defect of the nucleus.

When you join particles together, that takes binding energy. Taking them apart releases the binding energy.

I see the root of your confusion.

You would be well advised to go back to your sources and learn the difference between nucleon binding energy and covalent bonding between electron orbitals. It won't save your life, but it will make you much happier and more confident in the company of people who know what they are talking about. Then you won't have to resort to childish insults.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 00:25:33 by alancalverd »
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Offline Bored chemist

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Do you understand the significance of that?
It makes it absolutely clear that you don't understand what you are on about.
Here's what I understand: The insignificance of you. You don't have a real name. You don't have any credentials. All you have is a sock puppet account and a lot of confirmation biased arguments.
So, you understand essentially nothing.
I'm as insignificant as you are.
I have a real name and I explained why i don't use it (it allows me to post things that my employer might object to)
I have credentials,  and they look quite good- but, since I'm posting anonymously, i can't share them.
However, if you look at what else i have posted here over the years, you will find that I am well enough respected.
A sock puppet account implies a "puppet master"  but that's silly I'm posting entirely my own views.
And my arguments- like the last point I made- are generally based on established facts.

You, on the other hand seem unable to accept that you are frequently wrong.
You misunderstand and misinterpret a lot of things (I suspect that's sometimes deliberate).
And, when you are faced with someone who actually knows about a subject you think you understand- because you have read a boook on it- you assume that they are wrong.
Well, there are many ways  to describe that.
Here's one of the more polite ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

And, you still cited a reaction with no entropy change as an example of how important entropy is. Then you said it again.
You still think that an effect which, at best contributes a tiny percentage of the change in the Earth's temperature is important to that change.
You still think the Earth is a thermodynamically closed system.
You still said that you only claimed understanding infields where you were expert- but you were shown to pontificate , even in fields where you admitted that you didn't know what you were on about.
You misrepresent what others have said- and then repeatedly engage in strawman attacks.

I could go on, but there's no point; as far as I can tell you have a cognitive fault where  you can not understand that you don't understand.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Craig: ask  yourself about the mass loss in the reaction C + O2 → CO2, and please tell us the answers.

Which atom lost mass? Did it lose electrons, protons, neutrons, or something else?

If we now recycle all the atoms by photosynthesis and coal formation, then burn the carbon again, at what point will the carbon and/or oxygen atoms have lost enough mass to become some other species?
bind·ing en·er·gy
nounPHYSICS
the energy that holds a nucleus together, equal to the mass defect of the nucleus.

When you join particles together, that takes binding energy. Taking them apart releases the binding energy.

The entropy law assures me that last sentence of yours is ridiculous.

Again, either you're scientifically clueless, or you obfuscate just because you like to argue, both inexcusable for a moderator of a physics forum.

Nobody is doing nuclear physics with fossil fuels.
The nuclear forces binding the nuclei together are not changed during combustion etc (actually,strictly speaking, they are- but you don't have the background to understand that- in any event, the effects are tiny ).
You don't understand entropy*- so you are not in a position to soundly base arguments on it.
So that whole rant is irrelevant.

* If you understood entropy, you wouldn't have chosen the e p annihilation as an example of entropy; but you did. It's like discussion of pollination but using club mosses as an example or (for Tim's benefit) talking about Yorkshire fittings, but trying to explain them using push-fit polymer piping systems.

(Tim, you realise I'm kidding; I'm just trying to make the point about how stupid Craig's choice was.)

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Offline alancalverd

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Here's one of the more polite ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Pleased to encounter another fan of Kruger and Dunning. Should be required reading for Her Majesty's Inspectorates. Perhaps Craig is a warranted inspector?
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Nobody is doing nuclear physics with fossil fuels.

The nuclear forces binding the nuclei together are not changed during combustion etc

(actually,strictly speaking, they are- but you don't have the background to understand that- in any event, the effects are tiny ).

You don't understand entropy*- so you are not in a position to soundly base arguments on it.
So that whole rant is irrelevant.
FALSE.

http://www.decodedscience.org/is-there-a-connection-between-a-burning-log-and-emc2/22390

Again, I understand Entropy just fine. When you take a bunch of solar energy that's concentrated in fossil fuels, then use combustion to release it according to the 1st Law of Thermodynamics, you get a bunch of dissipated heat, ash and smoke that includes carbon dioxide.

It takes more energy to collect all that energy and carbon dioxide back together than you got burning it in the first place. That's the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, or the Entropy Law. When you convert mass or energy from one form to the other, you are going to get Entropy.

By the way, the fact that you said nuclear forces both are and aren't changed during combustion renders your own rant irrelevant, and further demonstrates your need to consider retaking chemistry.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Here's one of the more polite ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Pleased to encounter another fan of Kruger and Dunning. Should be required reading for Her Majesty's Inspectorates. Perhaps Craig is a warranted inspector?
Don't make me laugh. Let me speak to you in your own language. You remind me of an affectatious Mensa poser who barely made it in on SAT scores and thinks substituting stilted pleonasm for vernacular passes for intellect. I would be more than happy to sit down and take a supervised IQ test with you, or perhaps we could merely compare college transcripts or skill sets. I would be willing to bet money I'm better than you at at least ten things, and I'm starting to think science is one of those.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 07:15:13 by Craig W. Thomson »


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Offline alancalverd

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It's a model, based on an unproven and highly dubious hypothesis. Other than that, nothing.
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Offline alancalverd

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I would be willing to bet money I'm better than you at at least ten things, and I'm starting to think science is one of those.
Please show some evidence of the last conjecture. Or count the pleonasms in your last post. Whatever amuses you.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 13:03:14 by alancalverd »
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Offline alancalverd

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And here's an interesting graph, showing a much stronger correlation, based on much more reliable data, than the temperature/CO2 graph so beloved of believers
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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And here's an interesting graph, showing a much stronger correlation, based on much more reliable data, than the temperature/CO2 graph so beloved of believers
FALSE, and I can see why you didn't post the article I found looking for that graph, because it says so:

Neuroskeptic

Magnetism: From Neuroscience to Climate Change?
By Neuroskeptic | October 16, 2015 7:50 am

"A few weeks ago, a pair of Canadian scientists, David Vares and Michael Persinger, published a paper concluding that climate change is not caused by carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels, as most people believe.

"Instead, they say, global warming and the rise in CO2 are both caused by decreases in the strength of the earth’s magnetic field: Earth’s Diminishing Magnetic Dipole Moment is Driving Global Carbon Dioxide Levels and Global Warming.

"Why is a neuroscience blogger like me writing about a climate science paper? Because the senior author, Michael Persinger, is a well-known neuroscientist.

"Persinger is a professor at Laurentian University in Canada. He’s perhaps best known for this researches in the field of “neurotheology“, the study of the neural basis of religious experiences. Much of his work has focussed on magnetic phenomena and their influence on the brain.

"In the new paper, Vares and Persinger report a correlation between the strength of the earth’s magnetic dipole moment, atmospheric CO2, and global temperatures.

"Then again, this is just a correlation, and correlation is not causation. A correlation exists between CO2 levels and any other variable which has increased or decreased since 1980, such as, say, the average ticket price at American cinemas. It seems unlikely that movie tickets affect the atmosphere directly.

"To provide a direct causal link between the diminishing of the earth’s magnetic field and increasing atmospheric CO2 levels, Vares and Persinger cite a 2008 paper that found that magnetism affects the solubility of CO2 in water. With a weaker field, CO2 would become less soluble in the oceans and some would be released into atmosphere.

"However, as John Mashey (who brought this paper to my attention) pointed out to me, the cited 2008 paper explicitly rejects the idea that geomagnetism can explain global warming (although acknowledging that it might exacerbate it):

"The magnitude of the [geomagnetic-CO2] mechanism is small compared to the magnitude of the preponderant mechanisms driving the exchange of carbon between ocean and atmosphere, such as water temperature, biological pumping, overturning circulation… it would be preposterous to make the weakening Earth’s magnetic field responsible for global warming.

"Vares and Persinger go on to say that although CO2 is rising, this in itself “does not cause global warming”. Instead, they say that the change in energy associated with the Earth’s changing magnetic field “translates into an equivalent temperature” and this may relate to climate change.

"However, I believe there is a serious error in their calculation here. Vares and Persinger write (my emphasis) that

"If the CO2 increases into the atmosphere from the sea water because of the diminished magnetic field are associated with the increased temperature, then that energy should translate into an equivalent temperature. Applying the classic definition that 4.18 J is required to increase 1 cc (10^−6 m3) of water 1˚C at standard temperature and pressure (STP), then the total energy within the 5.1 x 10^18 m3 will be 2.1 x 10^13 J.

"With 1.72 x 10^13 J equivalence available from the change, the analogous temperature shift will be 1.2˚C. This implies that there is an equilibrium system by which the removal of the source energy is related quantifiably to the increase or decrease of the two connected variables. Thus, the equivalent value of the 1.2˚C would be reflected in the increase due to the release of CO2.

"4.18 J of energy are required to raise the temperature of 1 cc (ml) of water by 1˚C. There are 10^6 (one million) cc in one m3 (cubic meter) volume. Therefore in order to raise the temperature of 5.1 x 10^18 m3 of water, we require 4.18 x 5.1 x 10^18 x 10^6 = 2.131 x 10^25 J. Vares and Persinger state this value as 2.1 x 10^13 J, which is too small by 12 orders of magnitude. The error is that they appear to have multiplied by 10^ -6 instead of 10^6.

"So I believe that the proposed “equivalence” between the amount of energy provided by the Earth’s magnetic field, and the amount of energy needed to cause global warming, is an error. Global temperatures have in fact risen by a bit less than 1 ˚C since 1970. If I’m right, the change in magnetic energy would in fact only heat the oceans by 0.0000000000012 ˚C, not 1.2˚C as Vares and Persinger state.

"I’m not a climate scientist, but this seems to me like a problem for the attempt to suggest a causal link to underlie the correlation that Vares and Persinger report."

I'm not a climate scientist, but this seems to me like a problem for a moderator at a physics forum to suggest a causal link to underlie that correlation based on the hypotheses of "neurotheologists" rather than climate scientists.

In your own words,

Today at 10:48:57 »

"It's a model, based on an unproven and highly dubious hypothesis."
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:33:37 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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So what is wrong or biased with this article the other day from Nature?

 http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v531/n7596/full/nature17145.html
http://www.nature.com/news/antarctic-model-raises-prospect-of-unstoppable-ice-collapse-1.19638
Nothing. We've merely got ourselves a renegade moderator on the loose, spreading misinformation.

Here's an article saying the same thing yours do, but from a ".org" site to add a bit of credibility.

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/antarctica-at-risk-of-runaway-melting-20189

Here's another one explaining the misinterpretations of NASA's data with some good citation at the bottom:

http://scienceblogs.com/gregladen/2015/11/03/nasa-study-of-antarctic-ice-melt-misunderstood/

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Offline alancalverd

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I'm not a climate scientist, but this seems to me like a problem for a moderator at a physics forum to suggest a causal link to underlie that correlation based on the opinions of neurosurgeons rather than climate scientists.
But I didn't. I merely posted a graph of correlation. The inference of a causal link must have been yours.

So be warned that unidirectional correlation, however strong, is not proof of causation unless (a) the maths stacks up and (b) the same maths correctly predicts correlation in the opposite direction. And also remember that cause always precedes effect.

You are not unteachable, Craig.
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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I merely posted a graph of correlation. The inference of a causal link must have been yours.
FALSE. Here's your quote, with bold face type for emphasis:

"And here's an interesting graph, showing A MUCH STRONGER CORRELATION, based on much more reliable data, than the temperature/CO2 graph so beloved of believers."

cor·re·la·tion
ˌkôrəˈlāSH(ə)n/
noun
a mutual relationship or connection between two or more things.
"research showed a clear correlation between recession and levels of property crime"
synonyms:   connection, association, link, tie-in, tie-up, relation, relationship, interrelationship, interdependence, interaction, interconnection; More
STATISTICS
interdependence of variable quantities.

I still can't believe they let a flaming troll be a moderator, spewing misinformation like a geyser. You ought to be ashamed of yourself. I hope you're ready to do battle with me over this for a very, very, very long time. I can almost guarantee I'm more hard-headed than you, plus, I like the human race and the environment and don't want to see them go away, which is a pretty strong motivating factor for me.

What's your motivating factor? Narcissistic delusions of grandeur? To hell with decorum. I'm ready to go to war with people like that if necessary. I would rather die than let you flat-earthers take out the whole planet.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 15:57:17 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline alancalverd

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The correlation shown in that graph is far stronger than any actual data relating temperature to carbon dioxide concentration. But those of us who speak English or understand science are aware that correlation is not proof of causation - the inference of causation was yours, not mine. To quote from the same paper - indeed your chosen sample of that paper

Quote
"Then again, this is just a correlation, and correlation is not causation. A correlation exists between CO2 levels and any other variable which has increased or decreased since 1980, such as, say, the average ticket price at American cinemas. It seems unlikely that movie tickets affect the atmosphere directly.

which is why I posted the graph in the first place.

The problem we have here is that you seem to be impressed by any mathematics that supports your preconceptions, but not any that challenges them. That is most unscientific.

If I have any motivation, it is a desire to help and encourage people to think critically and to value fact above hypothesis, opinion or propaganda.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 16:27:22 by alancalverd »
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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The problem we have here is that you seem to be impressed by any mathematics that supports your preconceptions, but not any that challenges them. That is most unscientific.

If I have any motivation, it is a desire to help and encourage people to think critically and to value fact above hypothesis, opinion or propaganda.
Nonsense.

What you refer to as "preconceptions" come from books written by scientists, and from college courses taught by scientists. I find that in this forum, you consistently ask me to disregard this information in favor of your flat-earth climate change skepticism.

Not only that, when 97% of climate scientists in countries of all political stripes are in agreement, I don't need a non-expert like you telling me to "think critically" about their findings.

These are the Dark Ages of climate science. Instead of The Church controlling the conversation and keeping people ignorant, it is Big Business, money being the prime motivating factor of both parties. It's time for a Renaissance, flat earther.

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Offline alancalverd

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What you refer to as "preconceptions" come from books written by scientists, and from college courses taught by scientists. I find that in this forum, you consistently ask me to disregard this information in favor of your flat-earth climate change skepticism.

If you read what I wrote, rather than what you think I might have written, I merely asked you to consider the information and whether the interpretation that you may have gleaned from others was strictly in accordance with it.

In leaping to the defence of the consensus you first asserted that the order of events was irrelevant to the distinction between cause and effect, then confused atomic chemistry with nuclear physics, and now claim, despite plenty of evidence to the contrary in this forum, that I think the earth is flat. Remember that 97% of scientists used to think that the sun revolved around the earth, combustion released phlogiston, and the atom was indivisible. If you find yourself talking nonsense in support of a hypothesis, it's just possible that the hypothesis is wrong.

You may be right in one respect, however. Now that politics rules science (at least in Europe and the USA) we may be approaching another Dark Age. The Renaissance began with skepticism, so please try thinking for yourself - the world needs you.
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Offline jeffreyH

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What you fail to appreciate Craig is that the members you are insulting would actually like to help you. The fact that this forum hasn't banned you should tell you something about its ethos.
Fixation on the Einstein papers is a good definition of OCD.

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Offline Bored chemist

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Nobody is doing nuclear physics with fossil fuels.

The nuclear forces binding the nuclei together are not changed during combustion etc

(actually,strictly speaking, they are- but you don't have the background to understand that- in any event, the effects are tiny ).

You don't understand entropy*- so you are not in a position to soundly base arguments on it.
So that whole rant is irrelevant.
FALSE.

http://www.decodedscience.org/is-there-a-connection-between-a-burning-log-and-emc2/22390

Again, I understand Entropy just fine. When you take a bunch of solar energy that's concentrated in fossil fuels, then use combustion to release it according to the 1st Law of Thermodynamics, you get a bunch of dissipated heat, ash and smoke that includes carbon dioxide.

It takes more energy to collect all that energy and carbon dioxide back together than you got burning it in the first place. That's the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics, or the Entropy Law. When you convert mass or energy from one form to the other, you are going to get Entropy.

By the way, the fact that you said nuclear forces both are and aren't changed during combustion renders your own rant irrelevant, and further demonstrates your need to consider retaking chemistry.
Thank you for citing that page.
It includes this
"A common misconception is that Einstein’s famous equation applies only to nuclear processes "
Now, who was it introduced nuclear physics to the discussion?
oh, that's right; it was you.
"bind·ing en·er·gy
nounPHYSICS
the energy that holds a nucleus together, equal to the mass defect of the nucleus."

Meanwhile, what did I actually say ?
well- how about this
"Nobody is doing nuclear physics with fossil fuels.
The nuclear forces binding the nuclei together are not changed during combustion"
And that is perfectly correct- so it is clear that nuclear binding energies have nothing to do with the situation.
But you brought them in.
If only there was a term for pointlessly introducing words; perhaps we should coin a new one.
How does "pleonasm" sound?

in the mean time, perhaps you would like to comment on your inability to accurately assess things like the power needed to run a train, or heat a house.
But I'd really like to know why if you "understand Entropy just fine" you chose to illustrate it with a reaction that has no entropy change?

Why did you do that- if (as some of us do) you really understand entropy, it's obvious that it's a laughable choice- so why did you pick it?
 
Please disregard all previous signatures.

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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Craig: ask  yourself about the mass loss in the reaction C + O2 → CO2, and please tell us the answers.

Which atom lost mass? Did it lose electrons, protons, neutrons, or something else?

If we now recycle all the atoms by photosynthesis and coal formation, then burn the carbon again, at what point will the carbon and/or oxygen atoms have lost enough mass to become some other species?
bind·ing en·er·gy
nounPHYSICS
the energy that holds a nucleus together, equal to the mass defect of the nucleus.

When you join particles together, that takes binding energy. Taking them apart releases the binding energy.

The entropy law assures me that last sentence of yours is ridiculous.

Again, either you're scientifically clueless, or you obfuscate just because you like to argue, both inexcusable for a moderator of a physics forum.

Why have you not either banned him or at least corralled him into the science for those who do not know the difference between chemistry and sub atomic physics?

Please tell me if ths thread ever egts to discuss the degree of warming we should expect from our release of CO2.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 21:29:00 by Tim the Plumber »

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Offline Tim the Plumber

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And here's an interesting graph, showing a much stronger correlation, based on much more reliable data, than the temperature/CO2 graph so beloved of believers

What mechanism would you suggest is the dirving factor behind that?

Without such a mechanism it's not much at all.

Having read your posts since I understand that you were talking to the crank.

That is why there can be no serrious discussion here untill he is restricted.
« Last Edit: 06/04/2016 21:30:03 by Tim the Plumber »

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Offline alancalverd

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What mechanism would you suggest is the dirving factor behind that?
The point is exactly that: the historic correlation between magnetic field and CO2 is as near perfect as you can wish for, but it is entirely spurious. There is no possible linking mechanism. Lesson 1: correlation does not imply causation.

Now if we add the observation from Vostok and Mauna Loa that temperature changes precede changes in CO2 concentration, we get lesson 2: causes must precede effects so CO2 cannot be the cause of temperature variation. However the evidence does suggest that temperature drives CO2, and we can propose several plausible mechanisms for that.

I have no desire to restrict anyone. Arguing with a convinced crank may at least encourage others to look critically at the facts even if he claims papal infallibility, and as he points out, Craig probably represents a majority in his denial of the obvious, though most of them can be excused on grounds of ignorance of the facts. As for the sixth-form insults, both BC and I have the thick skins you acquire with a sackful of professional qualifications and experience, and nobody else has complained.
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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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The Renaissance began with skepticism, so please try thinking for yourself - the world needs you.
If I think for myself, you'll say I'm not following science. If I follow science, you'll say I'm not thinking for myself. It's a classic Catch 22.

This isn't about a mindset, or about me not thinking for myself, or me being brainwashed, or any of that.

What this is about is you casting doubt on sensible arguments that are backed up by science, by nitpicking and obfuscating the issues. I'm just trying to determine why you would do such a thing. I expect arguments like these from FOX news' comment section, NOT in a physics forum.

I mean, you posted a graph correlating the rise in CO2 to changes in the earth's magnetic field. News flash: There are a lot of laymen here, and that definitely sends the wrong message. You didn't even post a disclaimer. In fact, I had to look up the article you gleaned it from, and the study was conducted by "neurotheologists." Talk about a crackpot link.

Luckily, I am not as scientifically ignorant as you would like to believe, or would like everyone else here believe. I have almost 40 years of general science knowledge gleaned from reading books and magazines, plus some college science credits to officially back that up, so I see right through skeptics, and I've already tackled most of their tired arguments several times over at this point. This is just rehash, just staying in practice.

Again, it doesn't matter who came first, Ginger Rogers or Fred Astaire, the chicken or the egg, the temperature or the carbon dioxide, because right now, there seem to be a lot of chickens and eggs, and Fred and Ginger are both moaning loudly as they dance up in the rafters.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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The fact that this forum hasn't banned you should tell you something about its ethos.
On the contrary, the fact that this thread is full of trolls moderated by a flamer me tells me something about its pathos.

You refuse to talk about science, choosing instead to post 100% passive-aggressive, thinly veiled, inflammatory tripe, and they let you get away with it, which tells me something else about the site, Sigmund Schadenfreude.

Again, if you don't believe applying combustion to fossil fuels can change the temperature and composition of a finite atmosphere, there's a simple test you can try at home. Drive your car into the garage, close the garage door, roll down the windows, and leave your car running.

Are you willing to die to prove your point? Because I'm not willing to die if the skeptics are wrong, more on.


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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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Having read your posts since I understand that you were talking to the crank.

That is why there can be no serrious discussion here untill he is restricted.
Oh, look, the right wing fascist wants to crack down on my freedom of speech so he can talk about pseudoscience.

Big surprise.

FYI, that chart was produced by Canadian "neurotheologists," Liquid Drain-O.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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However the evidence does suggest that temperature drives CO2, and we can propose several plausible mechanisms for that.
Again, while that may be true historically, you seriously need to update your information. Only in the last 150 years did we start plowing through fossil fuels at breakneck speed. In the last 800,000 years, CO2 content of the atmosphere was NEVER above 320, and as I have pointed out at least half a dozen times in these threads, we added another 20% to that in just 50 years. So now you need to accept the fact that there's a new factor to consider. Maybe temperature USED to lead, but that was before there were 7 billion people relying of fossil fuel consumption for their livelihood, which is UNPRECEDENTED.

So, whatever you have to say about temperature leading carbon dioxide LIKELY DOESN'T MATTER ANYMORE, because THAT WAS THE OLD ATMOSPHERE, which did not have a CO2 content of 400 parts per million.

Temperature is not leading. Carbon dioxide is not leading. Fossil fuel consumption is leading.

END OF STORY.

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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both BC and I have the thick skins you acquire with a sackful of professional qualifications and experience.
Nonsense. If you had a sackful of professional qualifications, you wouldn't be in a public forum arguing with an artist. You would be hanging out with Stephen Hawking, publishing a scientific paper, or converting kinetic energy to mass. Public forums are for hobbyists and people who read pop science books, but they also harbor crank scientists and nobodies with science degrees eager to make themselves feel better by trashing out laymen and people who read pop science books. I am well experienced with this phenomenon.

I would bet money Bored Chemist has even less qualifications than you do. I can poke holes in his flimsy arguments, and I only have a passing knowledge of chemistry from studying biology and physics. I'm guessing I probably know more about chemistry than he does just from being a former professionally certified carpet cleaning technician. He's challenging me to do Calculus problems, but I would like to see him get urine, vomit, bile, feces, blood, wine, copy toner, Red Lake #40, tannins, and odors out of carpet. I guarantee you I'll totally school him in practical chemisty. He probably couldn't even clarify the distinction between detergents and surfactants without looking it up.

If the two of you have any real qualifications, I would guess you're corporate scientists for an oil or chemical company at best, which would also explain your tired skeptic arguments.
« Last Edit: 07/04/2016 16:28:57 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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If you read what I wrote, rather than what you think I might have written...

you confused atomic chemistry with nuclear physics
I read what you wrote. Care to define "atomic chemistry" ??

https://www.google.com/search?q=atomic+chemistry&oq=atomic+chemistry&aqs=chrome..69i57&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

Doesn't seem to be an entry with that heading, LOL

God, you are so full of it.
« Last Edit: 07/04/2016 07:39:52 by Craig W. Thomson »

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Offline Craig W. Thomson

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You are not unteachable, Craig.
No, but perhaps you are.

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Offline cheryl j

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Here's one of the more polite ones.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning%E2%80%93Kruger_effect

Pleased to encounter another fan of Kruger and Dunning. Should be required reading for Her Majesty's Inspectorates. Perhaps Craig is a warranted inspector?

It is a bit odd that you would pick Dunning Kruger bias to attack Craig with. It's not generally used to explain why people agree with the consensus, or why a consensus of experts, or if you will, the most knowledgeable people about a subject at the time, might be wrong. (We can quibble about whether it's the oft quoted 97% or somewhat less, but I think its fair to say a consensus of climate scientists agree that human activity has been a primary influence over global temperatures in the last 250 years. )

The  Dunning Kruger bias is more often an explanation for why outliers (which might describe your own position more than Craig's - just sayin')  believe something they do. It came up a lot during the GOP debates to explain how Ben Carson, graduate of Yale and chief of neurosurgery at John Hopkins and practicing surgeon for 3 decades, could reject evolution or modern cosmology.

The Dunning Kruger effect also comes up in explaining why a certain number of scientists or medical doctors become anti-vaccination or anti-gmo activists. The bias doesn't simply say "dumb people are too dumb to realize they are dumb."  People lacking expertise in an area underestimate their lack of knowledge, and those who are very competent in another area may be even more prone to do this. What's more, the skill set of intelligent or well educated people makes them particularly adept at rationalizing or defending beliefs they may hold for irrational reasons.

At anyrate I would pick another cognitive bias to attack Craig with or the majority of climate scientists he agrees with (perhaps Bandwagon effect?) If you are going to use the argument that alarming studies get more attention, most climatologists are corrupted by money and political pressure, or peer review journals are a joke, it does sound a little tin-foil-hatty, the equivalent in most science forum discussions of over-turning the chess board. 

I wish this discussion hadn't dissolved into insults. I was getting interested.
« Last Edit: 07/04/2016 19:00:49 by cheryl j »