[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Interestingly, the current value for London is lower than any other statistical region, but we mustn't let facts cloud a good rant, must we?]

Evidently not

Current best estimates of R
London      East      Midland      NE/Yorks     NW       SE     SW
1.1             1.2          1.3               1.2            1.4        1.1      1.4

The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.

I think you will find the point of London being a lower R number was made by you in your non specific tirade. Let's try another.

Who's the best at being an Alan?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

your answer belies the fact that it is still increasing

Date                R _London
11/12              1.0
18/12              1.2
23/12              1.4
08/01              1.3
15/01              1.1

looks to me as though it increased when lockdown was lifted, and is now decreasing. These figures obviously underestimate the decrease because they are necessarily retrospective: the number published each Friday represents what actually happened in the previous 7 days. But then I have the political disadvantage of being numerate.

the R number means increase if over one, you cannot have forgotten that. Your answer once more is deceptive and diversive.

infections usually dip over holiday periods and pick up afterwards

I know of no data that supports your argument. We know that reported deaths decrease during short holiday periods and spike immediately afterwards, because registries close for public holidays and publish numbers for the dates that the reports are filed, not the reported date of death.

the bit above contradicts the bit below

All the current evidence and knowledge gained since the days of Pasteur and Semmelweiss suggests that infections increase during holidays because people travel and meet.  But then I'm only a clinical scientist - what do I know about clinical science?

I've left you an easy out Alan, it's because the mail is controlled by trump hitler.
 
www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8744063/amp/Septembers-normal-increase-coughs-colds-causing-utter-chaos-post-lockdown-Britain.html

Although it sort of happened this September, amazing really, who knew?

[Bored chemist]

the bit above contradicts the bit below

No, it doesn't.
One refers to Reports
The other refers to Infections.

[Bored chemist]

Although it sort of happened this September,

The schools reopened and, as predicted, they passed the virus on.
Even the Daily Fail would think twice about calling a doubling of the death rate a " normal increase in coughs and colds".

[Bored chemist]

the R number means increase if over one

Nobody said that it didn't- if you are talking about cases- but nobody was.
The question is whether R itself was increasing.

And you have the cheek to say

Your answer once more is deceptive and diversive.

[alancalverd]

The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.

See Reply # 16 above, or give us your definition of "descending". Please note that Trumpian mathematics and language  become officially invalid on 20 January.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The fact being that the infection rate in the Capital where Christmas was shut to movement, after 5 weeks is still above R1, its not even descending, so they don't need parachutes just yet.

See Reply # 16 above, or give us your definition of "descending". Please note that Trumpian mathematics and language  become officially invalid on 20 January.

As stated previously, the R number means an increase if over one. This trump ban  sounds like its got you worried.

https://www.newscientist.com/term/r-number/

[alancalverd]

Ah! I see your problem.

Reading back through a few posts, you don't understand the meaning of "it". Easily fixed. The pronoun refers to the last previously mentioned neuter entity. AFAIK this is a pretty common convention in all European languages, and really quite important in science and medicine. 

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Ah! I see your problem.

Reading back through a few posts, you don't understand the meaning of "it". Easily fixed. The pronoun refers to the last previously mentioned neuter entity. AFAIK this is a pretty common convention in all European languages, and really quite important in science and medicine. 

As I said before you have a propensity to answer your own points and divert your argument away to it rather than within the context of the thread

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Still rising, still no golf, still half hearted.

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/no-strong-evidence-coronavirus-of-levels-decreasing-in-england-b900537.html%3famp

The same experts also suggested that the national R rate - the the average number of people each infected person passes the disease onto - is 1.04, meaning the epidemic is still increasing in size

[alancalverd]

And it will continue to exceed 1 for at least another couple of weeks. The moment it dips below 1, our beloved leaders will re-open the flood gates and find a hidden stash of vaccines in the hope of not losing too many Conservative seats in the May council elections. But R will pick up again and exceed 1.5 by the end of March.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

A mickey take

www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55843506

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29january2021#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

[Bored chemist]

A mickey take

www.bbc.com/news/amp/uk-55843506

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/29january2021#number-of-people-in-england-who-had-covid-19

You forgot to say anything meaningful.

Were you planning to add something like " about 1 person in 50 has had the virus and 100,000 of them died, so if we let the other 95% catch it we could expect a worst case death toll of about 50 times 100,000 i.e. about 5 million."?

That's certainly an answer to the question "Why should I be bothered with lockdown? " unless you feel that 5 million dead is a reasonable price to pay for your selfishness.

[alancalverd]

Remember that is 2% of those tested in two weeks. But the infection lasts a lot longer, and you don't test people who have already been tested. A very conservative estimate would be that all those who tested positive in the past 4 weeks are infected and infectious  - closer to 5 %. So there are currently about 3,300,000 active carriers in the UK, of whom we can expect around 670,000 to require hospital treatment and maybe 100,000 to die within the government-mandated 28 days.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Hot off the presses,

Government learns how to deal with corona from film

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55917374

And the only legal quarantine measures government finds too difficult to implement.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55921150

Also, government unbelievably incompetent time wasters.

[alancalverd]

The stench of bullshit and incompetence pervades all government edicts. There's a heck of a difference between a crew hauling 50 tons of food, and the same crew moving 200 passengers. Crews can be isolated in their own bubble for months (ask any sailor or marine) and present no hazard to anyone else, and goods can be quarantined for hours or days if necessary, but a passenger from anywhere is a potential disaster.

[Bored chemist]

Government learns how to deal with corona from film

It's a pity they didn't watch it earlier.

They seem to be involved in some sort of contest to see who can make the most stupid statement

Dido Harding: 'None of us were able to predict' coronavirus would mutate

UK can’t close borders as island nation ‘unlike Australia’, says Grant Shapps

Brexit secretary Dominic Raab says he ‘hadn’t quite understood’ importance of Dover-Calais crossing

I lead a life of blameless domesticity and always have done :Boris Johnson.

Health Secretary blames Harry Potter for embarrassing Marcus Rashford name howler

The list goes on.

[alancalverd]

It's clearly time to depose the corrupt and incompetent government by force.

Problem is, what do we want?

Anyone with an IQ exceeding 100 wants a full quarantine until we have no new COVID cases for a month, and continuing quarantine for all travellers until the rest of the world cleans up its act.

According to the newspapers written for those with an IQ below 100, the other half want to go to pubs, festivals and Ibiza 'cos it ain't right to deprive us of our liberty and we all have mental health issues and kids need to be bullied at school.

So a clean coup will descend into civil war just like it always does on the telly.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

It's clearly time to depose the corrupt and incompetent government by force.

Problem is, what do we want?

Anyone with an IQ exceeding 100 wants a full quarantine until we have no new COVID cases for a month, and continuing quarantine for all travellers until the rest of the world cleans up its act.

According to the newspapers written for those with an IQ below 100, the other half want to go to pubs, festivals and Ibiza 'cos it ain't right to deprive us of our liberty and we all have mental health issues and kids need to be bullied at school.

So a clean coup will descend into civil war just like it always does on the telly.

It is manageable Alan and it is unfair to deprive us of freedom. No one stopped you during Hong Kong Flu, no one stopped you during the Aids emergence, but the key there was mitigation. You can mitigate with a total lockdown and you can mitigate with specific measures as in Sweden, but as the UK has proven you can't do both at the same time.

[alancalverd]

50 years ago, HKF killed about 30,000 people in the UK with no restrictions. So far, COVID has killed over 100,000 despite all sorts of partial restrictions. This does not compare favorably with Australia (900 deaths) or New Zealand (25 deaths) with almost identical demographics but strict quarantines.

Mitigation by doing nothing and accepting a continuing 2 - 4% increase in death rates and 10 % increase in longterm disability may appeal to you, but prevention is better if you have any interest in public health and economics. The best time to introduce quarantine is always yesterday, but today is a practical compromise.

There was no "mitigation" for AIDS, only avoidance. Problem with an airborne infection is that you can't advise people not to breathe.