The Naked Scientists
  • Login
  • Register
  • Podcasts
      • The Naked Scientists
      • eLife
      • Naked Genetics
      • Naked Astronomy
      • In short
      • Naked Neuroscience
      • Ask! The Naked Scientists
      • Question of the Week
      • Archive
      • Video
      • SUBSCRIBE to our Podcasts
  • Articles
      • Science News
      • Features
      • Interviews
      • Answers to Science Questions
  • Get Naked
      • Donate
      • Do an Experiment
      • Science Forum
      • Ask a Question
  • About
      • Meet the team
      • Our Sponsors
      • Site Map
      • Contact us

User menu

  • Login
  • Register
  • Home
  • Help
  • Search
  • Tags
  • Member Map
  • Recent Topics
  • Login
  • Register
  1. Naked Science Forum
  2. Life Sciences
  3. Physiology & Medicine
  4. COVID-19
  5. Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« previous next »
  • Print
Pages: [1] 2   Go Down

Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?

  • 32 Replies
  • 9086 Views
  • 0 Tags

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« on: 09/04/2021 07:52:15 »
Given that the technology is tried and tested and  Chinese inactivated vaccine appears to work, should we have been persuing àn inactivated virus vaccine in march 2020.

Would it have been quicker?
Would it have been faster?
Would it have been easier to produce?
« Last Edit: 09/04/2021 08:53:20 by chris »
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 



Offline CliffordK

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 6596
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 60 times
  • Site Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #1 on: 09/04/2021 08:40:25 »
I was ready for a vaccine to come out by late January a year ago. 

I think when the dust settles from this pandemic, the greatest tragedy will be all the delays in the vaccine rollout.

If one compares the COVID vaccine rollout to the 2009 Swine Flu rollout.  The Swine Flu was beginning to be reported in early April 2009.  COVID by the first of January 2020 (a full 3 months and change earlier).  Vaccines approved (USA) on September 15 (5 months later).  Late December 2009, vaccine available for all (USA), so about 8 months into the pandemic. 

With COVID, on the other hand, everything started 3 months earlier, and we were barely rolling out the first vaccine doses in late December, and now into April and still struggling to get people vaccinated.

We have nearly 3 million global deaths, 560 thousand dead in the USA, 127 thousand dead in the UK, 167 thousand in India, and still counting.

Had we gotten the vaccine out by the end of October, the numbers might have been 1 million dead, kids would be back in school, and life would be returning to normal.

Somehow we have the capacity to get flu shots out to half the population every year (which I got one last fall), but struggle with capacity issues for the COVID vaccine. 

Somehow we accept a 50% efficacy for the flu shots (it's just the flu that kills thousands of vulnerable people), but needed better for COVID.

Yet, a 50% efficacy of the shots may still have kept millions of people out of the hospital, and out of the morgue.

And we could have followed up with a 2nd or 3rd vaccine after an early one.

Obviously the FDA and other similar organizations in other countries are vital for regulating drugs, and safety of chemical drugs.  But, I wonder if vaccine safety is different.  Yes, there are dosing issues...  but...  that could be determined quickly. 

Then there is real world efficacy.  And, of course the risk of giving people a false sense of security.  But, even a moderate efficacy might have reduced millions of infections, and potentially kept those that got the disease from being admitted to hospitals.
Logged
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 30177
  • Activity:
    20.5%
  • Thanked: 1174 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #2 on: 09/04/2021 08:45:48 »
This viral infection has an R value of about 3.
A vaccine that reduces it by 50% will take it to about 1.5
That's still more than one.
So that vaccine will not stop an outbreak.
So, the answer to the question is: no we should not have wasted time on something which wouldn't have done the job.
Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 

Offline chris

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 8007
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 295 times
  • The Naked Scientist
    • View Profile
    • The Naked Scientists
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #3 on: 09/04/2021 09:01:46 »
Valneva, one of the vaccine manufacturers, is going down the route of inactivated virus.
Logged
I never forget a face, but in your case I'll make an exception - Groucho Marx - https://www.thenakedscientists.com/
 

Offline CliffordK

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 6596
  • Activity:
    0%
  • Thanked: 60 times
  • Site Moderator
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #4 on: 09/04/2021 11:02:19 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 09/04/2021 08:45:48
This viral infection has an R value of about 3.
A vaccine that reduces it by 50% will take it to about 1.5
That's still more than one.
So that vaccine will not stop an outbreak.
So, the answer to the question is: no we should not have wasted time on something which wouldn't have done the job.
People may like to have a base replication number but I'm not sure one can consider the R-Value as constant.

Here in the USA we've been on a quite a roller coaster ride, and are now entering our fourth wave.

So, between April and May, cases were decreasing. (R < 1),
Late July to early September, cases were also decreasing (R < 1)
And January 9 through mid March cases were also decreasing (R < 1)

Masks, social distancing, etc, can all reduce spread.  It is quite possible the warm summer + a vaccine would have reduced our summer wave, and put us in a better position for the coming fall.

COVID is under reported, but consensus puts the general population infection fatality rate around 0.3% to 1%. 

Early studies were showing a very low fatality rate in vaccinated patients with the current vaccines.  Perhaps that will be better defined now that we have millions vaccinated.  It is quite possible that even a marginal vaccine would reduce both transmission and the fatality rate. 

The biggest risk would be giving individuals a false sense of security, but getting kids back to school and returning to "normal" earlier could have been very beneficial.

The efficacy studies of the current vaccines only studied developing the disease (or developing symptomatic disease).  If transmission was also reduced, that could further reduce the R value.
Logged
 



Offline evan_au

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 10835
  • Activity:
    4.5%
  • Thanked: 1421 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #5 on: 09/04/2021 11:48:17 »
Quote from: CliffordK
Somehow we have the capacity to get flu shots out to half the population every year (which I got one last fall), but struggle with capacity issues for the COVID vaccine.
There is a fundamental difference here:
Flu Vaccine: There is a well-oiled international machine for detecting and prioritizing new flu variants, for manufacturing a vaccine (in massive warehouses filled with chicken eggs), and distributing it to those who need it.
- A new set of priority variants is identified every 6 months, and bulk manufacturing is available before those variants start to spread in the winter of the target hemisphere.
- The factory is unchanged, the manufacturing process is unchanged
- the vaccine safety is well-tested over many years, accelerating the safety trials
- this makes approval very straightforward.

COVID-19 Vaccine: The international network for detecting and identifying new respiratory diseases apparently ignored it, because it wasn't a flu virus.
- In fact, it was a coronavirus, for which there had never been a successfully deployed vaccine in humans
- They had to work out how to create a new coronavirus vaccine, and then mass-produce it
- This has resulted in a number of vaccine approaches, all of which have some degree of novelty
- This requires a new factory and production techniques
- The safety of these novel vaccines needs to be tested carefully in clinical trials
- Genetic engineering techniques were used extensively in design of these new vaccines. Again, this is a newish technique.
- The main reason that it could be done so quickly is that there was a competition several years ago to develop vaccine "platforms" that could be quickly adapted to a new pandemic. These platforms delivered some of the first approved COVID-19 vaccines.

Yes, availability of the COVID-19 vaccines was slower than the annual seasonal flu vaccine (which is available before the start of the flu season).
- I think that the causes are entirely reasonable
- Frankly, I think that it is amazing that the COVID-19 vaccines are available as quickly as they were
- I agree there are lots of production problems; you expect this with ramp-up of a new product and process
- The main risk is that the large number of COVID-19 cases in the worldwide community will continue to spawn large numbers of new variants, some of which are likely to escape the current vaccines.

I think we can aspire to having a COVID-19 vaccine process that is as effective at dealing with variants as the flu virus is today
- And hopefully, an international monitoring network that will detect new pandemic candidates, even if it doesn't match the expectations created by the last pandemic.
Logged
 

Offline evan_au

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 10835
  • Activity:
    4.5%
  • Thanked: 1421 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #6 on: 09/04/2021 11:50:14 »
Quote from: OP
Chinese inactivated vaccine appears to work
Please point to the peer-reviewed paper showing the efficacy, and how they calculated it.
Logged
 

Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #7 on: 09/04/2021 14:39:29 »
Quote from: evan_au on 09/04/2021 11:50:14
Quote from: OP
Chinese inactivated vaccine appears to work
Please point to the peer-reviewed paper showing the efficacy, and how they calculated it.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext

There is a sort of greyness to the current situaltion as there is with astrazenica.
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 30177
  • Activity:
    20.5%
  • Thanked: 1174 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #8 on: 09/04/2021 15:35:40 »
Quote from: CliffordK on 09/04/2021 11:02:19
but I'm not sure one can consider the R-Value as constant.
True, and I spent quite a lot of time failing to explain that to people here who would not listen.

However, the point remains that only dropping the infection rate by half isn't really good enough- it just means that people die over a longer period (with a slight additional reduction if that stops healthcare getting overwhelmed).


Quote from: Petrochemicals on 09/04/2021 14:39:29
There is a sort of greyness to the current situaltion as there is with astrazenica.
The situation with AZ is that people are worried about a blood clot risk from a vaccine which might allow them to take a foreign holiday in which which the air travel  exposes them to roughly a hundred fold greater risk of a clot than the vaccine.

That's not "grey" that's scaremongering.


Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 



Offline set fair

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • 444
  • Activity:
    1.5%
  • Thanked: 19 times
  • Naked Science Forum Newbie
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #9 on: 09/04/2021 19:13:40 »
The only thing to seriously complain about is the manufacturing capacity. A goal of at least 50 million doses a day should have been set. It's a bit rich for Tedros to lament slow rollout in poorer countries - he is the one who should have set the goal. Of course wealthy countries will vaccinate their own first.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2021 19:15:42 by set fair »
Logged
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 30177
  • Activity:
    20.5%
  • Thanked: 1174 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #10 on: 09/04/2021 20:31:51 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 09/04/2021 07:52:15
Given that the technology is tried and tested and  Chinese inactivated vaccine appears to work, should we have been persuing àn inactivated virus vaccine in march 2020.

Would it have been quicker?
Would it have been faster?
Would it have been easier to produce?

There's an implication there that the various drug companies round the world might have got their managerial boards together and decided "I know; let's not try to be first to market with an effective vaccine, and let's make it unduly difficult".

There's also an implication that
"Would it have been quicker?"
is different from
"Would it have been faster?"

But that's just a comment on the OP's wisdom
Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 

Offline evan_au

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 10835
  • Activity:
    4.5%
  • Thanked: 1421 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #11 on: 09/04/2021 21:40:34 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext
That is a Phase 1 trial (144 participants), which is about Safety: Will it harm a large number of the participants?
- & Phase 2 trial (600 participants), which is aimed at Dosing to produce effective antibodies (and look closer at side-effects)
- These phases are important, to minimize harm, and ensure it has some chance of working

To get an idea of efficacy, you need a Phase 3 trial, typically with 30,000 participants.
- You need to compare the number of people who catch the disease, and the number who die with/without the vaccine
- This paper does not do this.
- That is why the last line says
Quote from: Sinovac trial
In summary, CoronaVac was well tolerated and induced humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2, supporting the approval of emergency use of CoronaVac in China and in three phase 3 studies. The protective efficacy of CoronaVac remains to be determined.

So the rollout in China started without actually knowing the efficacy....
- There is a risk that National Pride will determine the deployment of home-grown vaccines, rather than the Clinical Efficacy
- But other countries should expect to see the Clinical Efficacy before they decide to deploy a vaccine

So the question remains:
Quote from: evan_au
Please point to the peer-reviewed paper showing the efficacy, and how they calculated it.
« Last Edit: 09/04/2021 21:45:41 by evan_au »
Logged
 

Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #12 on: 10/04/2021 04:41:57 »
Quote from: evan_au on 09/04/2021 21:40:34
Quote from: Petrochemicals
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30843-4/fulltext
That is a Phase 1 trial (144 participants), which is about Safety: Will it harm a large number of the participants?
- & Phase 2 trial (600 participants), which is aimed at Dosing to produce effective antibodies (and look closer at side-effects)
- These phases are important, to minimize harm, and ensure it has some chance of working

To get an idea of efficacy, you need a Phase 3 trial, typically with 30,000 participants.
- You need to compare the number of people who catch the disease, and the number who die with/without the vaccine
- This paper does not do this.
- That is why the last line says
Quote from: Sinovac trial
In summary, CoronaVac was well tolerated and induced humoral responses against SARS-CoV-2, supporting the approval of emergency use of CoronaVac in China and in three phase 3 studies. The protective efficacy of CoronaVac remains to be determined.

So the rollout in China started without actually knowing the efficacy....
- There is a risk that National Pride will determine the deployment of home-grown vaccines, rather than the Clinical Efficacy
- But other countries should expect to see the Clinical Efficacy before they decide to deploy a vaccine

So the question remains:
Quote from: evan_au
Please point to the peer-reviewed paper showing the efficacy, and how they calculated it.
Ok I'll try to find a phase 3 paper
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 



Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #13 on: 10/04/2021 04:49:47 »
Quote from: chris on 09/04/2021 09:01:46
Valneva, one of the vaccine manufacturers, is going down the route of inactivated virus.
Does this mean it is not particularly fast to achieve?
« Last Edit: 10/04/2021 04:52:05 by Petrochemicals »
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 

Offline alancalverd

  • Global Moderator
  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • ********
  • 17735
  • Activity:
    68.5%
  • Thanked: 1440 times
  • life is too short to drink instant coffee
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #14 on: 10/04/2021 09:40:09 »
Presumably.

Never  mind the humanitarian aspect: given an immediate world market for some 7 billion doses of whatever works, nobody with the capacity to develop and manufacture a vaccine is going to waste time doing anything else.
Logged
helping to stem the tide of ignorance
 

Offline set fair

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • 444
  • Activity:
    1.5%
  • Thanked: 19 times
  • Naked Science Forum Newbie
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #15 on: 14/04/2021 09:39:43 »
Sinovac's coronavac looks like it's about on par with other vaccines. Perhaps not quite as good but given a bad press
Logged
 
The following users thanked this post: evan_au

Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #16 on: 14/04/2021 13:31:07 »
Quote from: set fair on 14/04/2021 09:39:43
Sinovac's coronavac looks like it's about on par with other vaccines. Perhaps not quite as good but given a bad press
That is the grey area. Astra zenica is 60 percent efficient at stoppi g infection, but according to the USA was 100 percent effective in stopping mortality. It has also been suggested AZ is 90 percent efficient at stopping hospitalisation in a Scottish study. The sinovac seems to be similarly ambiguous.
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 



Offline set fair

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • 444
  • Activity:
    1.5%
  • Thanked: 19 times
  • Naked Science Forum Newbie
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #17 on: 14/04/2021 16:38:43 »
Time to approval is similar also.
Logged
 

Offline Petrochemicals (OP)

  • Naked Science Forum King!
  • ******
  • 3256
  • Activity:
    21.5%
  • Thanked: 146 times
  • forum overlord
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #18 on: 15/04/2021 13:05:25 »
Quote from: set fair on 14/04/2021 16:38:43
Time to approval is similar also.
Time to approval may be similar as desisions are desisions, but time to develop and time to trial may be far smaller, it is after all a very well trodden path. China did produce it very quickly. The flu vaccine is an inactivated virus that is rolled out very quickly, the only problem with the flu vaccine is production as it is cultured in chicken eggs. I wonder how sinovac is produced.
Logged
For reasons of repetitive antagonism, this user is currently not responding to messages from;
BoredChemist
To ignore someone too, go to your profile settings>modifyprofie>ignore!
 

Online Bored chemist

  • Naked Science Forum GOD!
  • *******
  • 30177
  • Activity:
    20.5%
  • Thanked: 1174 times
    • View Profile
Re: Should we have tried the inactivated virus approach to vaccines for Covid-19?
« Reply #19 on: 15/04/2021 22:34:17 »
Quote from: Petrochemicals on 15/04/2021 13:05:25
the only problem with the flu vaccine is
... that it is irrelevant.
Logged
Please disregard all previous signatures.
 



  • Print
Pages: [1] 2   Go Up
« previous next »
Tags:
 

Similar topics (5)

COVID-19: Would it help if we all "Put the lid down"?

Started by evan_auBoard COVID-19

Replies: 3
Views: 3767
Last post 24/05/2020 13:16:18
by Bored chemist
How do you test a covid test?

Started by Jolly2Board Physiology & Medicine

Replies: 26
Views: 8401
Last post 24/11/2020 19:36:13
by evan_au
Does the Covid-19 vaccine have the flu vaccine in it?

Started by katieHaylorBoard COVID-19

Replies: 1
Views: 2679
Last post 08/02/2021 21:44:46
by evan_au
Does the pneumonia jab prevent pneumonia from COVID-19?

Started by nudephilBoard COVID-19

Replies: 2
Views: 4507
Last post 29/07/2020 23:44:09
by Colin2B
Resurgence Of Covid-19 in Winter....WHY ? What Does 'Winter' have To Do With It

Started by neilepBoard COVID-19

Replies: 14
Views: 5541
Last post 31/07/2020 11:08:12
by alancalverd
There was an error while thanking
Thanking...
  • SMF 2.0.15 | SMF © 2017, Simple Machines
    Privacy Policy
    SMFAds for Free Forums
  • Naked Science Forum ©

Page created in 0.443 seconds with 82 queries.

  • Podcasts
  • Articles
  • Get Naked
  • About
  • Contact us
  • Advertise
  • Privacy Policy
  • Subscribe to newsletter
  • We love feedback

Follow us

cambridge_logo_footer.png

©The Naked Scientists® 2000–2017 | The Naked Scientists® and Naked Science® are registered trademarks created by Dr Chris Smith. Information presented on this website is the opinion of the individual contributors and does not reflect the general views of the administrators, editors, moderators, sponsors, Cambridge University or the public at large.