[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs etc, middle class children apparently hit more severley.

What other effects has the grand experiment had?

[alancalverd]

Fewer deaths than predicted without lockdown.

[Bored chemist]

What other effects has the grand experiment had?

What experiment?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Fewer deaths than predicted without lockdown.

Fewer deaths than predicted that are directly attributed to corona are claimed to be because of social measures before a vaccine that provided some level of immune protection in those that where vunerable.

Did deaths from other causes increace?

Increaced deaths predicted caused by a lockdown.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/07/03/minister-covid-suicide-children-school-shutdowns-report/

[alancalverd]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, especially in the hands of a journalist and the absence of evidence.

"Ministers were warned that....." is not evidence of anything that actually happened, whereas excess death statistics are immutable, strongly correlated with the incidence of COVID in the population as a whole,  and consistent with the simplest explanation and experience in other countries.

The big mistake (apart from Our Glorious Health Secretary deliberately infecting the vulnerable) was calling it "lockdown" rather than quarantine, pretending that Very Important People (like the scum in Downing Street and several thousand "essential match officials" at a football match) could not be vectors for such a working-class disease, and stating that the sanctity of the Commercial Birthday of Jesus was  more important than the health of the proletariat.

Still, several Tory donors made a lot of money and got honors and peerages, so it worked out OK in the end.

[Kryptid]

Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs

What evidence was provided that such was the cause?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Hindsight is a wonderful thing, especially in the hands of a journalist and the absence of evidence.

Here is post event evidence, I do not believe you could have pre event evidence?

https://www.cypnow.co.uk/news/article/campaigners-warn-of-alarming-rise-in-teenage-suicides

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs

What evidence was provided that such was the cause?

The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people

Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.

https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people

[alancalverd]

There has been a significant change of language in the last 5 years. Mental illness is now called mental health, which sounds better, so more people have it, or at least report having "issues".

The "alarming" numbers:

with 147 young people aged 15 to 19 taking their own lives in 2020, rising to 198 in 2021

Normalised (there are about 4,000,000 people in the cohort), the number has risen from  0.0037%   to 0.005%. The first question is whether either figure is significant? Next, what is the historic inter-year variance? Then what are all the possible causes? "Social" media? Unemployment? New street drugs? New prescription drugs? Public hysteria? Poverty? Fear of a future dominated by a virus or a corrupt government of liars*?

One common causative factor is schoolyard bullying. Intuitively, loneliness is the diametric opposite. If the statistics are significant, they deserve more detailed analysis.


*According to the Office of National Statistics, the annual percentage has risen steadily since 2012 and the 2020-2021 rise is consistent with that trend.

[Kryptid]

Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs

What evidence was provided that such was the cause?

The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people

Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.

https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people

Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Hearing today that in the UK the mental illness rate in children has increaced from 12 percent to 18 percent due to lock downs

What evidence was provided that such was the cause?

The pandemic has had a devastating impact on many of the young people

Even in happy Sweden corona had a bad effect, so it may or may not have been exacerbated by lockdown.

https://www.norden.org/en/news/covid-19-has-been-bad-mental-health-vulnerable-children-and-young-people

Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?

You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The "alarming" numbers:

with 147 young people aged 15 to 19 taking their own lives in 2020, rising to 198 in 2021

Normalised (there are about 4,000,000 people in the cohort), the number has risen from  0.0037%   to 0.005%.

Well the same could be said of children dying from the jabs, not many healthy children died by the percentage, but the corona  problem was not theirs really, yet it has been imposed on them and has therefore more deeply impacted them than it would have a la nature. As I said, it's a signifier of the general sociological impact.

Where is your cut off point for deaths going from fine to not?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

I will also go as far as to say that the economy was also negatively effected.

[Kryptid]

You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.

Yes, I did ask for sources. Then I asked this:

Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

You appear to have tried to jump the tracks, you asked for sources, there they are. It's to do with isolation.

Yes, I did ask for sources. Then I asked this:

Where in those sources are the numbers you provided in the first post? How were the mental stresses of lockdown differentiated from the mental stresses caused by people's friends and relatives getting COVID and/or dying, fear of them catching it themselves or other pandemic induced stressors? How was the relative weight of each stressor determined?

Sorry kryptit, there's no way out of it, they are the sources.

[alancalverd]

The only consistent factor in the continually increasing rate of teenage suicide in the UK since 2012 has been a Tory government. So it is no surprise that a Tory newsrag (the Telegraph) attempted to keep the ship of fools afloat by chucking one minister over the side. As he was personally responsible for least 60,000 excess deaths in a very short period, and is generally despised by the electorate, it seems like a rational sacrifice.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

The only consistent factor in the continually increasing rate of teenage suicide in the UK since 2012 has been a Tory government. So it is no surprise that a Tory newsrag (the Telegraph) attempted to keep the ship of fools afloat by chucking one minister over the side. As he was personally responsible for least 60,000 excess deaths in a very short period, and is generally despised by the electorate, it seems like a rational sacrifice.

I see your 60,000 and raise you,

https://www.bhf.org.uk/what-we-do/news-from-the-bhf/news-archive/2023/june/100000-excess-deaths-cardiovascular-disease

And that's just the tickers. Don't forget the extra 33 percent suicides in children, I know ithey are only small, but they had a long time to live, plus don't forget the other children who will have severley damaged quality of life. That extra 50 people could increace to thousand of destroyed young lives Alan.

[alancalverd]

I haven't forgotten the apparent 33% additional suicides, just explained that the probable cause is continued government incompetence and corruption, not quarantine.

A couple of years ago, the annual death rate for cats run over outside my house increased by more than 1,000,000%. Shock! Horror! Clearly correlated with a partial solar eclipse just a month earlier. Time to ban the moon? Well, we had a full moon  last night and now there's a dead deer on the road, so Something Must Be Done Before It's Too Late To Save Wildlife.

[Bored chemist]

I had a look at the actual data here
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/suicidesintheunitedkingdomreferencetables
And drew the graph of total suicide deaths aged 10 to 19 vs year. (That's absolute- not deaths per million or whatever)

child suicide vs year.png (6.4 kB . 480x288 - viewed 73 times)

[Bored chemist]

And to save you checking, here's what UK politics was doing over time.

child suicide vs year politic.png (7.27 kB . 480x288 - viewed 91 times)

I'm always happy to point out when Alan gets stuff wrong, but in this case, I think he's more right than he realised.
Peaks in child suicide happened under Tories, troughs under Labour.