[charli (OP)]

Listener David was wondering:

"Hypothetically speaking, if all modes of transport were electric, would this cause greater pollution (in terms of output from power stations) than conventional petrol or diesel modes of transport?"

[Zer0]

Hello David!
🙏

Very Interesting Question, i must Admit.
👍

Anyways, I'd think of this in terms of
" Efficiency " !
(Fuel consumed to power generated ratio)

1) How Efficient are Power Plants?

" (Typical thermal efficiency for utility-scale electrical generators is around 37% for coal and oil-fired plants, and 56 – 60% (LEV) for combined-cycle gas-fired plants. Plants designed to achieve peak efficiency while operating at capacity will be less efficient when operating off-design (i.e. temperatures too low.) "
Source - Wikipedia.

2) How Efficient are Electric cars?

" (Efficiency. EVs convert over 59-62% of grid energy to the wheels. Conventional gasoline vehicles convert only some 17%–21%.
Plug-in hybrid vehicle: Less use of petroleum, residual use of electricity
Regular hybrid electric vehicle: Less use of petroleum, but unable to be plugged in.) "
Source - Wikipedia.

3) How Efficient are Petrol/Diesel cars?

" (Diesel engines generally achieve greater fuel efficiency than petrol (gasoline) engines. Passenger car diesel engines have energy efficiency of up to 41% but more typically 30%, and petrol engines of up to 37.3%, but more typically 20%. That is one of the reasons why diesels have better fuel efficiency than equivalent petrol cars. A common margin is 25% more miles per gallon for an efficient turbodiesel.) "
Source - Wikipedia.


P.S. - I'm a Novice hence can Not provide a Definite answer...but surely my Seniors would Nail it.
🔨

EDIT - I forgot to factor in the Loss of Power thru Transmission Lines.
☹️
& I donno how to calculate that.

But yeah, if it's a simple Comparison between an Electric Motor vs a Internal Combustion Engine...then the Electric Motor has it fair & square.
👍

Loss of Energy due to Heat would be the likely reason.
Electric motors after an hour of operation would get warmed up considerably...but the I.C. Engine gets incredibly Hot within a few minutes.
🌡️

If all Transport was Electric...Air Pollution would occur around just Power Plants.
Would be easy to tackle particulate matter & other unfriendly gases by attaching Filters at the chimneys.
🏭

But gas vehicles n fuel vehicles, Especially Diesel ones pollute the inner parts of a city.
🚚🌫️

Perhaps reason being all public transports like trains, metros, subways, buses & even aircrafts are seeing newer electric models.
🛸

(But yes, i donno how to factor in scrapping all gas/fuel modes of private transport n replace them with batteries.
🤔
That perhaps would take alot of mining & dynamite)

Public transportation seems like a good resolve.
Efficient & Economical.
& I also Wonder, why the heck can people not just ' Work from Home '.
I Understand it won't be applicable & feasible for everyone, but still.
😑
Be safe from road accidents, until a huge earthquake brings down your house, or perhaps a mega asteroid flattens the Earth.
🤞
(If it ain't already flat)
🤭
lol...sory Mods!
🍭

[alancalverd]

Sadly, in the short term, the answer is yes.

According to the manufacturers, making an  electric car from scratch releases around 26 - 30 tonnes of carbon dioxide, as much as a diesel car would emit in 100,000 miles. So replacing internal combustion vehicles before they are worn out will increase global CO2 levels.

Manufacturing and siting land-based wind generators emits about 600 tonnes of CO2 per delivered megawatt. Offshore wind is slightly more efficient in terms of mean delivered power  per unit installed capacity, but they require rather more concrete and steel to build - say 1000 tonnes of CO2 per MW. If we replace all the  cars in the UK with electric cars we will need to install another 30 GW of delivered power, and if that all comes from wind at an average of 20% of installed capacity, that means  150,000,000 tonnes of CO2 must be released before we reach "zero carbon" car travel.

Buses, diesel trains and trucks in total account for about the same amount of energy as cars in the UK, so to replace all modes of transport with electric traction you can double the above figures.

Long term, of course, you will be running on a replacement basis, so carbon dioxide emissions will drop to about one tenth to one twentieth of the peak. The key question, then, is when are you prepared to release all the CO2 necessary to make the change? All at once and hope the climate scientists are wrong, or over say 20 - 50 years as the oil runs out anyway?

In the interim, before all the new windmills come on stream, you have to make up the balance with gas-generated electricity, as at present, except you will need to double the number of power stations and burn a lot of fossil fuel to do so. And then scrap them.     

Electric cars are a great idea, just 100 years too late to save the planet.
   

[Petrochemicals]

Yes it does, he energy usage of electric cars versus fossil fueled ones is very similar when generated from fossil fuels.

 The UK presently consumes 100 million toe of gas, yet the uk alone would use 100 million toe extra every year just for transport if generated from gas,  meaning the uk would be consuming gas at twice the rate it is at present. If this is extended world wide we would halve the time to readopting coal as our main fuel source. This would be very very bad as a gas boiler is far more efficient than an electric radiator run from coal power.

[Zer0]

Listener David was wondering:

"Hypothetically speaking, if all modes of transport were electric, would this cause greater pollution (in terms of output from power stations) than conventional petrol or diesel modes of transport?"

🙄


Just in Case David was seeking a Blunt & Plaid answer...

Then, if all modes of transport were Electric, then Additional Power would be Required to charge them.

Hence Residential + Commercial + Industrial + Transportation = Would eventually make Power Plants Alot more Polluting than at the Current stage.
That would Simply be Worse!
👎

What would Really matter or change the paradigm, is from Where & How that additional Electricity is Generated.

Nuclear + Geothermal + Renewables would do the Trick.
👍



P.S. - Oil will dry up...Natural Gas shall disappear...& Then the Only thing left would be Dark Black Coal.
😑
(Hope & Wish ITER works out)
🤞

[evan_au]

in terms of output from power stations

Unfortunately, I think Dave was basing his question on a false premise.

The cost of coal, oil & gas is increasing, as we exhaust the easier deposits.
- The cost of renewables is decreasing
- Making coal, then oil less economic over time
- The last to go will be gas turbines, because they are less-polluting than coal, and have a more rapid response for peak-hour demands.

One of the challenges of this fossil vs renewables debate is that you can't easily store electricity.
- But that is exactly what electric vehicles do.
- And installing solar cells is something for which owners of electric vehicles have a strong incentive
- Yes, it will need a lot of low-power chargers, and a communications infrastructure to manage it, but an increasing fraction of our electricity grid will be from renewables.

Whether we would replace our entire existing fleet of vehicles over the next 20 years remains to be seen.
- The increasing convenience of accessing Uber and similar services means that more people can do without a personal car
- Especially in our more crowded cities
- If and when self-driving taxis become a realistic alternative, ride hire will become far more affordable than it is today (you don't have to feed and house the driver).

[wolfekeeper]

Sadly, in the short term, the answer is yes.

The studies say no.

According to the manufacturers, making an  electric car from scratch releases around 26 - 30 tonnes of carbon dioxide, as much as a diesel car would emit in 100,000 miles.

And what about the carbon dioxide needed to make the diesel car? That's zero is it??? Of course not, it's pretty similar, and then there's the diesel emissions on top.

So replacing internal combustion vehicles before they are worn out will increase global CO2 levels.

The CO2 emissions during manufacturing are not an automatic given. Electric car manufacturers are already using electrical power more in production, and so their CO2 emissions are dropping as the electrical power systems become greener.

Manufacturing and siting land-based wind generators emits about 600 tonnes of CO2 per delivered megawatt. Offshore wind is slightly more efficient in terms of mean delivered power  per unit installed capacity, but they require rather more concrete and steel to build - say 1000 tonnes of CO2 per MW.

The generators repay these CO2 debts in a few months.

If we replace all the  cars in the UK with electric cars we will need to install another 30 GW of delivered power, and if that all comes from wind at an average of 20% of installed capacity, that means  150,000,000 tonnes of CO2 must be released before we reach "zero carbon" car travel.

Displacing multiple times that in avoided fossil fuel usage.

Buses, diesel trains and trucks in total account for about the same amount of energy as cars in the UK, so to replace all modes of transport with electric traction you can double the above figures.

Again, displacing far dirtier modes of transportation.

Long term, of course, you will be running on a replacement basis, so carbon dioxide emissions will drop to about one tenth to one twentieth of the peak. The key question, then, is when are you prepared to release all the CO2 necessary to make the change? All at once and hope the climate scientists are wrong, or over say 20 - 50 years as the oil runs out anyway?

Oil's not going to run out, unconventional sources are massive, easily enough to completely destroy the climate.

In the interim, before all the new windmills come on stream, you have to make up the balance with gas-generated electricity, as at present, except you will need to double the number of power stations and burn a lot of fossil fuel to do so. And then scrap them.

No, because you can install renewable energy and build new electric vehicles AT THE SAME TIME. They're complementary.

[alancalverd]

And what about the carbon dioxide needed to make the diesel car? That's zero is it???

Yes, because we already have 30,000,000 perfectly good ICE cars and enough recyclable scrap to keep them running for another 20 years with negligible additional carbon emission, particularly if the recycling processes are mainly electrical.

The CO2 emissions during manufacturing are not an automatic given.

Yes they are. I quoted from an exclusively EC  manufacturer's website. I think they know what they are doing.

The generators repay these CO2 debts in a few months.

1 MW = 20 cars. 1000 tons of CO2 = 20 cars x 200,000 miles. That's a very big "few".

Displacing multiple times that in avoided fossil fuel usage.

eventually. My question is whether it is better to crank up CO2 production now in order to eliminate it some time in the future, and if so, what is the tolerable maximum?

No, because you can install renewable energy and build new electric vehicles AT THE SAME TIME.

That rather presupposes a solution to the implicit equation I have just outlined, followed by a rational government policy.  No chance.

[Bored chemist]

And what about the carbon dioxide needed to make the diesel car? That's zero is it???

Yes, because we already have 30,000,000 perfectly good ICE cars and enough recyclable scrap to keep them running for another 20 years with negligible additional carbon emission.

Why not "upcycle" them and make them electric?

[Bored chemist]

Electric cars are a great idea, just 100 years too late to save the planet.

Reminds me of the observation that the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.The second best time is today.

[alancalverd]

Why not "upcycle" them and make them electric?

Worth a thought. There are a couple of companies turning out amazing 600 HP electric versions of classic Porsches and Jaguars which certainly saves on R&D and metalbashing, but you need to reorganise the suspension to carry half a ton of battery instead of 200 kg of V8. And you still have to make the battery and build the power stations and charging points.

[alancalverd]

Reminds me of the observation that the best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago.The second best time is today.

Bu a tree is "all good" whenever you plant it. My concern is that rapid change to electric traction may do more harm than good  if you accept that CO2 is a Bad Thing, so the best time was either 100 years ago or gradually over the next 20 years*, but not today.

*when zero-carbon fusion power will be only 5 years away, or maybe 25.

[vhfpmr]

VW reckon their electric Golf will pay it's way after 77600 miles, based on the EU mix of electricity sources. Their analysis includes other sources too. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/from-the-well-to-the-wheel.html#

[vhfpmr]

Bu a tree is "all good" whenever you plant it.

According to the expert on the Thunberg program recently, forests generate more carbon for the first 15 years, then spend the next 15 years offsetting what they've just produced before they become carbon neutral.
Here, from the 18th minute: https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/p099f5k2/greta-thunberg-a-year-to-change-the-world-series-1-episode-3

[alancalverd]

VW reckon their electric Golf will pay it's way after 77600 miles, based on the EU mix of electricity sources. Their analysis includes other sources too. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/from-the-well-to-the-wheel.html#

Adequately close to my estimate of 100,000 miles for the Polestar 2 versus a 2-liter Skoda (they use VW diesel engines).

[Petrochemicals]

VW reckon their electric Golf will pay it's way after 77600 miles, based on the EU mix of electricity sources. Their analysis includes other sources too. https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/04/from-the-well-to-the-wheel.html#

Yes but how long will the government continue to subsidise electric vehicles before it snaps the trap shut. EVs currently pay no road tax and no fuel duty and no vat on their electric. The government makes about 60 pence per litre of petrol that goes toward subsidising electric vehicles and their energy, plus the road tax pays for the roads. If all the petrol cars disappeared tomorrow how would the government pay for everything, including subsidised nuclear and wind?  I suspect they will ram up roat tax for EVs and tax the cars. I suspect they would introduce a climate change levvy making evs far less appealing

[wolfekeeper]

And what about the carbon dioxide needed to make the diesel car? That's zero is it???

Yes, because we already have 30,000,000 perfectly good ICE cars and enough recyclable scrap to keep them running for another 20 years with negligible additional carbon emission, particularly if the recycling processes are mainly electrical.

No, because roughly half of the ICE vehicle carbon emissions today is the fuel they burn and more if they were magically recycled with no further emissions, so that's not happening, and don't forget that electric cars are highly recyclable too. As the current fleet of fossil cars wear out and the manufacturers pull their fingers out, they're going to be replaced more and more with electric cars. That's already happening in fact more than you seem to understand, with plug-in hybrids; they're electric cars too.

[Petrochemicals]

And what about the carbon dioxide needed to make the diesel car? That's zero is it???

Yes, because we already have 30,000,000 perfectly good ICE cars and enough recyclable scrap to keep them running for another 20 years with negligible additional carbon emission, particularly if the recycling processes are mainly electrical.

No, because roughly half of the ICE vehicle carbon emissions today is the fuel they burn and more if they were magically recycled with no further emissions, so that's not happening, and don't forget that electric cars are highly recyclable too. As the current fleet of fossil cars wear out and the manufacturers pull their fingers out, they're going to be replaced more and more with electric cars. That's already happening in fact more than you seem to understand, with plug-in hybrids; they're electric cars too.

The volkswagen statistics mentioned are thoes of paying for itself are in terms of co2

Comparison of the carbon footprint of the e-Golf and Golf diesel: The e-Golf has a better CO₂ balance after approximately 125,000 kilometers.

it is unclear what the recycled co2 footprint would be though if made from recycled materials. I suspect the VW statistics are virginal lithium production, from cradle to gate.

[alancalverd]

As the current fleet of fossil cars wear out and the manufacturers pull their fingers out, they're going to be replaced more and more with electric cars.

And windmills and electricity distribution systems and gaspower stations for when the wind doesn't blow.

Electric traction is great as a marginal substitute, but the activity of replacing the entire ICE fleet will generate a lot more CO2 than just building the cars. The question is whether you want to do it now or later.

[alancalverd]

it is unclear what the recycled co2 footprint would be though if made from recycled materials

There is already a fair bit of scrap in every car. But it's worth considering whether re-grinding a crankshaft and valve seats emits more CO2 than melting the entire engine and re-casting it as an electric motor frame. I think not. Definitely worth a visit to Malta or Cuba to see just how long an ICE vehicle can be made to last with a bit of cannibalisation and binder twine.