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General Science / Re: Statistical analysis to assess forecast
« on: 14/10/2021 03:53:30 »
A weather forecast is a many-splendored thing (or multi-dimensional, if you prefer).
- Checking its accuracy is also a multi-dimensional problem.
You would need to compare the accuracy:
- At every point in the area of the forecast
- For correct temperature
- air pressure
- windspeed
- precipitation
- cloud cover (if sunny days are important to you)
And since forecasts necessarily cover a period of time, you may need to assess the accuracy of a single forecast at multiple points in time (eg 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 1 week, etc). You expect the accuracy to degrade as you predict further into the future.
- Checking its accuracy is also a multi-dimensional problem.
You would need to compare the accuracy:
- At every point in the area of the forecast
- For correct temperature
- air pressure
- windspeed
- precipitation
- cloud cover (if sunny days are important to you)
And since forecasts necessarily cover a period of time, you may need to assess the accuracy of a single forecast at multiple points in time (eg 1 day, 2 days, 4 days, 1 week, etc). You expect the accuracy to degrade as you predict further into the future.
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