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Is our Earth is cooling?
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Is our Earth is cooling?
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JP
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #40 on:
29/03/2013 19:49:24 »
Folks, let's keep it a discussion of the science of global warming and cut back on the snarky comments.
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evan_au
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #41 on:
29/03/2013 20:49:46 »
Warmer ocean temperatures means more moisture in the air.
More moisture in the air means more instances of heavy rainfall, hurricanes and severe snowstorms.
Rain from hurricanes and slush after snowstorms make you feel cold.
People remember how cold they felt during these extreme events.
That is how global warming can give people the idea that things are getting cooler - if you only take selected local memories.
Fortunately, now we have global measurements from satellites, and a fairly good network of ground-based and ocean-based measurements, extending back over many years.
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MoreCarbonOK
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #42 on:
30/03/2013 08:45:08 »
@Evan -au
All major indicators including SST (sea surface temps) and including my own data set, show we are cooling, globally,
as shown to you in my very first post, for at least the past equivalent of one solar cycle.(11-12 years)
looking at my own data set (for example by studying degree C, versus time square) it is clear that global warming and global cooling are a natural process and that global cooling will continue, accelerating still and it will last until at least 2038 or there about....
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MoreCarbonOK
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #43 on:
30/03/2013 18:23:55 »
Sorry, that should read:
by studying degrees C/annum versus time (years):
that gives you acceleration in K /t square
in my case it shows deceleration of warming or acceleration of cooling
A curved relationship indicates a natural process
just like if you were to plot the speed of a ball (in m/s) against time
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #44 on:
02/04/2013 00:33:11 »
Let us keep it as simple as possible
If now that is possible. It's tricky, climate modeling is really tricky. One have to remember that we haven't really studied this extensively for more than maybe forty (fifty?) years? I'm not sure there as a real study should need to involve the best computing environment in the world, and if we use that as our definition, then we have only begun to study it. Another factor is that there are several layers in the atmosphere mixing with each other, and we have just begun to look at the stratospheres importance for the climate we notice on ground level. The same goes for the oceans at depth.
The scientific consensus of a man made global warming has nothing to do with those difficulties though, so when people want to dispute some new report/paper, or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.
To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear. But to know how it will express itself locally is almost impossible, unless we do it for some limited time. There are no computers able to do those calculations on earth, plus that we constantly find new interactions mankind didn't know existed before we started to take climate seriously, and made that field work.
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MoreCarbonOK
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #45 on:
02/04/2013 15:59:33 »
yor_on says
a) or twist it into some denial of global warming, they are bicycling up the wrong tree.
b) To see that it is a man made warming we notice is easy statistically, it correlates very well with the industrial revolution, so the evidence there are very clear.
c) The scientific consensus of a man made global warming....
henry@yor_on
a) It is common knowledge that there has been no global warming for at least 15 or 16 years. If you deny that you are bicycling up the wrong tree.
b) we were indeed on an uptick, warming naturally, since 1927 according to my own best fit for my own data, as shown before, on maxima, which is an a-c sine wave with wavelength of approx. 88 years, on average. At the time when I determined this I was not even aware that the Gleisberg solar/weather cycle had already been determined from other data. A good (global) data base from before that time is murky, to say the least, because of poor calibration (no certificates) and poor recording methods (depending on people).
c) my own data and those of most others, show a definitive cooling trend from 2002, and my own fit for my own data shows that we will cool further, until about 2038, when everything will be back more or less to where we were in 1950. We cannot have "an election" about this. In science, consensus is just nonsense. You only need one man to be right. I invite you to try and make another fit for my data on maxima,
http://blogs.24.com/henryp/2013/02/21/henrys-pool-tables-on-global-warmingcooling/
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #46 on:
02/04/2013 16:28:17 »
Oh
A lone ranger mission, is it?
Correcting the results of those 'climate scientists'?
I don't know what to say here. I can argue myself blue, but I don't expect it to change your mind, because you are r i g h t. right? Let us put this way, there are a publication for physics arxivx, why not present your calculations and evidence to them? Instead of wasting your time with argue here? Not sure they accept climate papers, but as long as you have the equations you might have a glimmer
And sorry Jp, your turn.
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MoreCarbonOK
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #47 on:
02/04/2013 17:16:03 »
Henry@yor_on
alone? you never got what I said in my first post?> most data sets now show a cooling trend from 2002, as I had predicted from my own data set
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadcrut3vgl/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/plot/rss/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2014/plot/gistemp/from:2002/to:2014/trend/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/to:2014/trend
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JP
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #48 on:
02/04/2013 17:30:57 »
Notes on how to cherry pick the aforementioned data to find a cooling period:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/notes#trends
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #49 on:
02/04/2013 17:59:25 »
Ánd no, consensus is not nonsense, not when it is a peer review. Neither Einsteins papers or any of QM:s was accepted 'as is'. There is always a peer review by those involved in the field of study. But do try arxivx, or why not real climate? But you will need all those data specified with time, location, and describe the exact measurements made, you will also need cross sections done using different sources, of the same date at least.
Because, using singular sources won't give you climate, only weather. Weather is always local 'singular sources' locally measured, climate on the other hand is a global phenomena, needing a whole lot more coverage by geographically differently situated 'local weather stations'. So you need to start with how you choose your measurements and cross sections, then you also need to prove the established climate models wrong, and preferably present some new observations, and tests, making your idea plausible. A table is not a proof.
That's also why Sweden can have a prolonged winter while Australia have heat waves and bush-fires. Globally counted on the temperature constantly is raising, but locally you might find something else. Climate is tricky.
But please, don't do it here. Direct it to those you're trying to disprove instead, and put some faith in science too
==
One more thing, 16 years do not give you enough to call it a trend. It's more of a fluctuation. It's just recently we have enough data collected to begin to use it in a statistically significant way. And doing that we find it to fit a global warming, not a global cooling. I could find you references but I won't today
If you really expect your data competent enough, then take it up with the right sites
Ahh, 2002 was it
That's 11 years. You need at least 30-40 years, preferably more. I think the English Admiralty have some rather interesting historical weather observations from their sailing ships, around the globe, though, if I remember right?
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/media/pdf/i/i/Fact_sheet_No._12.pdf
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Last Edit: 02/04/2013 18:45:34 by yor_on
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MoreCarbonOK
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #50 on:
02/04/2013 18:01:31 »
henry@jp
now there is reasonably intelligent response.
the problem is the UAH.
That is the one station that I had excluded because there is no correlation whatsoever with this one with all the other data sets.
btw
my selection was not cherry picked. I just chose the last equivalent of one solar cycle (= ca. 11 years).
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #51 on:
02/04/2013 19:09:38 »
Hmm
you do have your ways set, don't you.
Reread my last post, added some stuff. If you want to base it on statistics that is?
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Henry Pool
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #52 on:
02/04/2013 19:26:45 »
@yor_on
I am ur stats man. Please help me to see where I am wrong?
using my own data FROM 47 STATIONS (not enough?)
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Bored chemist
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #53 on:
02/04/2013 19:56:51 »
Did you read the bit about needing data over a long period of time?
After all, if you knew the temperature of every square metre of the world's surface today that would be something like 500 million million stations, it would tell you something about the weather, but nothing about the climate.
When it is known that there's a (roughly) 11 year cycle it's clear that 11 years isn't enough data- you can't tell if some cycles are deeper than others and, if so, how much deeper.
So you can't make any valid deductions about the earth's climate from 11 years worth of data.
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Henry Pool
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #54 on:
02/04/2013 20:34:50 »
@ bored chemist
yes, we know that earth has been warming from around 1928
but this warming stopped around the start of the new millennium
now, almost all data sets including my own are showing this....
what is ur point?
why are you all claiming that it is still warming when clearly it is not?
who are you fooling but yourselves?
Are you hoping it will still warm when all indications are going in the opposite direction?
mankind must adapt to a cooling climate, not a warming climate.
get wise
live with it
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Henry Pool
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #55 on:
02/04/2013 21:06:07 »
mankind must adapt to a cooling climate, not a warming climate.
that means less agriculture at higher latitudes (e.g. Alaska,
http://www.adn.com/2012/07/13/2541345/its-the-coldest-july-on-record.html#storylink=misearch
)
and PROMOTING more agriculture at lower latitudes (Africa/ South America)
\
MARK MY WORDS
\
DO SOMETHING
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #56 on:
02/04/2013 23:34:23 »
Are you trolling?
"The Industrial Revolution spanned the 18th and early 19th Century. Over this period, global CO2 emissions were a fraction of current levels. During the 18th Century, global CO2 emissions were around 3 to 7 million tonnes per year.
During the early 19th Century, CO2 emissions steadily rose reaching 54 million tonnes per year by 1850.
Currently we are emitting over 8000 million tonnes per year."
See if you ideas fit any of those cited in skeptical Science
Global Warming & Climate Change Myths
it have the accepted, proven by field work, answer beside the argument.
You just don't get it, do you? It's not your blog. I'm starting to suspect that you just want to write about global cooling, and advertise your blog, at TNS expense? And you are not a prophet, coming down from the mountain. God is not your personal property, to use in whatever manner that please you. At least not on this site.
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #57 on:
03/04/2013 00:06:18 »
For your information.
"Shaun Marcott of Oregon State University in Corvallis and colleagues have compiled 73 such proxies from around the world, all of which reach back to the end of the last glacial period, 11,300 years ago. During this period, known as the Holocene, the climate has been relatively warm – and civilisation has flourished.
"Most global temperature reconstructions have only spanned the past 2000 years," says Marcott.
Marcott's graph shows temperatures rising slowly after the ice age, until they peaked 9500 years ago. The total rise over that period was about 0.6 °C. They then held steady until around 5500 years ago, when they began slowly falling again until around 1850. The drop was 0.7 °C, roughly reversing the previous rise.
Then, in the late 19th century, the graph shows temperatures shooting up, driven by humanity's greenhouse gas emissions."
The cooling you want should have been here as belonging to Earths normal cycle, but it isn't, due to us. Instead we're going in the opposite direction, and we're just now finding that we might have a greater reason to worry about West Antarctica than thought before.
Hansen warned about it around twenty years ago, and if you bothered to look at the link I recommended earlier you can see that he's much closer to being prophetic than anyone else I know of. Here is Shaun Marcott et al
summary, and FAQ.
Why not read it?
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #58 on:
04/04/2013 15:01:41 »
Here is another sign of times to come.
Polar research: Trouble bares its claws.
And then we have
Krill and plankton.
Where the "Krill numbers may have dropped by as much as 80% since the 1970's - so today's stocks are a mere 1/5th of what they were only 30 years ago. The decline in krill may in turn account for the decline in the numbers of some penguin species."
And what did those whales feed on btw?
He*, why not let Japan eat as many as they want?
They're soon gone, or if smart migrating to the south pole, anyway. Just as we now start to see polar bears mating with 'ordinary' brown bears. Nature seems to have its own ways storing genetic information, but she do not plan for it with human 'times scales' in mind.
==
Btw, want to meet a winner?
"Another animal that feeds on the same phytoplankton food as krill, jelly-like colonial animals called salps that drift in the ocean currents have increased in the same time the krill have decreased."
Jellyfish.
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Last Edit: 04/04/2013 15:15:41 by yor_on
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yor_on
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Re: Is our Earth is cooling?
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Reply #59 on:
04/04/2013 15:53:31 »
Still, there are new breeds, amongst whales too. "The loss of Arctic sea ice is predicted to open up the Northwest Passage, shortening shipping routes and facilitating the exchange of marine organisms between the Atlantic and the Pacific oceans. Here, we present the first observations of distribution overlap of bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) from the two oceans in the Northwest Passage, demonstrating this route is already connecting whales from two populations that have been assumed to be separated by sea ice. Previous satellite tracking has demonstrated that bowhead whales from West Greenland and Alaska enter the ice-infested channels of the Canadian High Arctic during summer. In August 2010, two bowhead whales from West Greenland and Alaska entered the Northwest Passage from opposite directions and spent approximately 10 days in the same area, documenting overlap between the two populations."
And Norwegian dna test, made as they started up their whale hunting again in 1993 have found arctic and antarctic minke whales mating and producing off spring. But this are recent developments, just as I will assume the mating between polar bears and brown bears to be. Think it's high time accepting that global warming is happening, and accept that we need to change our ways.
=
Maybe I will be shown wrong when it comes to the chances for those whales?
Even though the antarctic/arctic species of krill respectively plankton are decreasing there seem to be a inflow of 'sub- and -tropical' plankton following the global warming. It will depend on if they can, and will, increase to such numbers that they can feed a whale population? Also it will depend on what temperatures whales will feel comfortable in. But it would certainly be good if I was wrong there, wouldn't it
Although, there's no certainty to those findings yet, as this also is a new situation, not described before.
Tropical Plankton Invade Arctic Waters
And yes, not all whales feed on plankton. But maybe they will change their diet? I don't know.
Do whales eat plankton or krill??
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Last Edit: 04/04/2013 16:25:09 by yor_on
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