[thedoc (OP)]

Joshua S. Spell‎  asked the Naked Scientists:
   
The Human Genome Project started when I was a little kid and concluded while I was in college (1990-2003). With modern technology, how long would it take to sequence the entire human genome (please correct my phrasing if necessary) if the project where to have started this year?
I understand that some of the modern technology that would be used wouldn't be around without the HGP, so I'm mainly just curious as to how much we've benefited from the HGP and would love to hear more about it.
What do you think?

[evan_au]

I understand that the rate of genome sequencing is growing exponentially, and has doubled roughly every 9 months, compared to:
- microelectronics, which is said to have a doubling time around 2 years
- science in general, which has a doubling time of around 5 years

This development of tools & techniques was a vital factor in completing the Human Genome Project (HGP).
- The project was initially targeted as a 15 year project
- By about year 10, they had completed less than 10% of the task. Some anti-technology politicians claimed this was a major disaster, using a linear prediction to suggest it would take 100 years at the same level of spending, and advocated withdrawing funding
- In the end, the target was met in about 13 years.
- 3 extra years = 4 doublings = 16x the work done.
- It was probably accelerated overall by the competition between entrepreneur Craig Venter and the official HGP. Venter used data from the HGP, and developed new techniques to put the pieces of the genome puzzle into the correct sequence

We are now 13 years later. This represents roughly 17 doublings, or 100,000 times faster. The 13-year project could be complete in less than a day, if it received the same high level of funding.

Of course, today's rapid progress is only possible because the earlier researchers did all the hard work. Assembling the first human genome was like solving a billion-piece puzzle, when you have lost the picture on the box. It is just guesswork, piecing together little bits that seem to fit together, with some general guidance like "the light blue sky areas are probably at the top".

Now that we have assembled a detailed picture of the human genome, we can rapidly map an individual's DNA (and its unique differences) into this existing framework.

Now, with warehouses full of rapid-sequencing machines, researchers have now completed the "1,000 genomes project", and are looking for even bigger challenges.