[EvaH (OP)]

David asks:

If infections and deaths in care homes are discounted, what is the infection and death rate, if possible by local area, in England?

Can you help?

[alancalverd]

Since a significant proportion of deaths occur in care homes anyway, and current estimates suggest that the confirmed COVID infection rate outside of the care and hospital sectors is about 30% of the true incidence, the figures are pretty meaningless.

The figures from Scottish universities, which opened about 2 - 3 weeks before the English unis, suggest that the next couple of weeks will see a significant change south of the border, with probably more reliable statistics than we have at present as the population is "manageable" and many universities have their own test laboratories.

People who die with COVID infection may not have it recorded as cause of death - the principal effect is to weaken the response to pneumonia and other easily-acquired, easily diagnosed, and usually treatable infections. The only reliable figure is "excess deaths", which may be reported by county or metropolitan authority.