[alancalverd]

Prevention is better than cure. The only preventive measure is lockdown. If applied fully for 4 weeks and followed up with 100%  quarantine at all borders, it can eliminate COVID from any given area.

Problem is that it is mildly inconvenient, requires competent government and properly organised public services, and has no short-term product, so it is politically unacceptable and we must all live in fear of a thoroughly nasty and extremely inconvenient endemic, for ever. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/22/covid-19-around-forever-former-uk-chief-scientific-adviser-mark-walport-vaccine

Meanwhile there  are signs of official competence existing outside of Korea and New Zealand:

The head of Israel's coronavirus task force has asked [Ukraine President] Zelenskiy  to ban an annual pilgrimage in which Hasidic Jews visit the central Ukrainian town of Uman, over concerns the site may become a virus hotspot.

Perhaps it was democracy, or the electoral college system, that wiped out the dinosaurs.

[evan_au]

I'm not sure where Donald Trump is getting his statistics, but his report on the death of New Zealand was greatly exaggerated.

[alancalverd]

Wasn't he the idiot who said "If Stephen Hawking were British, he'd be dead?" Well, he was right, eventually. And who knows, the tectonic plates may well shift again, with the disappearance of New Zealand.

[evan_au]

the tectonic plates may well shift again, with the disappearance of New Zealand

We in Australia call New Zealand "the Shaky Isles"...

Fortunately for New Zealanders, a large part of the fault line that runs the length of the south island tends to slip along the fault-line, rather than directly subducting the entire country under the Australian plate. IIRC, the east and west sides of the fault line are misaligned horizontally by about 800km.

The north Island is formed by volcanic eruption of material that was previously subducted beneath the Australian plate, so it didn't permanently disappear.

I think New Zealand is hoping for another ice age - their country is surrounded by a large areas of shallow sea, which would greatly increase their land area if/when there is another ice age.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geology_of_New_Zealand#Modern_tectonic_setting_and_earthquakes

[acsinuk]

The more people we test the higher the R rate will rise as most people have already suffered a covid 19 cold and shaken it off but of course test positive..  So it is nonsense to assume the virus is reappearing; as all it is is showing is that we have obtained herd immunity.  Why not stop testing and get back to normal.  After all, if we do not count the deaths of the over 80's who could expire even from a common cold  then the death rate due to covid 19 drops from 41,000 by 80% to just 8,000 which in 66 million people is no problem for NHS as they will be left in the old folks homes.

[Bored chemist]

The more people we test the higher the R rate will rise

R is the typical number of people who get infected by a person.
It has nothing to do with testing.

[alancalverd]

Not sure if we've mentioned it before in this thread, but Stalin said "One death is a tragedy. A million deaths is a statistic."

Now acsin tells us that 53,000 = 41,000 = 8,000 if you (a) ignore the obvious and (b) correct for his personal inconvenience, and all that stuff about intensive care and ventilators is a wicked fabrication - the NHS can carry on as normal. Best of all, we can ignore the slow, agonising death of anyone who has actually paid his taxes in the hope of receiving acute medical care at the time of need, and "get back to normal" so that The Holy Economy (i.e. bankers, estate agents and other parasites) can extort money from the workers.

The virus is not "reappearing". It never went away. What is happening around the world is that, as soon as the declared infection or death rate decreases, stupid people are putting themselves and others at risk by increasing R and thus allowing it to multiply.  For any given virus, R is a function of human behavior.  This virus can only be eradicated by reducing R to zero for about 4 weeks and securing the boundaries of the cleared area with an effective quarantine. Easy enough to do in the British Isles, but it requires a government with brains and balls, so it won't happen in the life of this parliament.

[acsinuk]

By trying to find a vaccine for Covid 19 only? why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time? both are viruses that  are similarly resistant to anti-biotics .  The NHS cannot cure a common cold so why not make everyone self isolate until they can?.  Doctors may be wizards at surgery but something as simple a cold is really scary for the NHS; as it may cause pneumonia and death.

[Bored chemist]

as it may cause pneumonia and death.

It may.
But it's a whole lot less likely to than Covid.
It's as if, every time you post, you find another point to miss.

[alancalverd]

something as simple a cold is really scary for the NHS

Not to my recollection, but I only worked for the NHS for about 12 years. What really scared us, even 30 years ago, was governmental incompetence. The common cold is an economic burden and a social nuisance, but not nearly as dangerous  as a government run by an unelected moron.

[Petrochemicals]

By trying to find a vaccine for Covid 19 only? why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time? both are viruses that  are similarly resistant to anti-biotics .  The NHS cannot cure a common cold so why not make everyone self isolate until they can?.  Doctors may be wizards at surgery but something as simple a cold is really scary for the NHS; as it may cause pneumonia and death.

To put the  common corona virus rhinovirus cold in perspective and corona, 20,000 people died from flu some years ago and that was with vaccines. Colds do cause pneumonia etc but not nearly at the same rate as influenza without vaccines.  The cold has herd immunity to it to and many people who are vunerable will have some earlier immunity to it.

The thing with the corona is that the the new virus means the body does not start combatting the virus and the viral load builds up.

[alancalverd]

By trying to find a vaccine for Covid 19 only? why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time? both are viruses that  are similarly resistant to anti-biotics . 

A vaccine will only reduce R by the fraction of the population vaccinated, and only for as long as the vaccine is effective.

Viruses are not affected by antibiotics.

Until we have 100% uptake of a 100% effective vaccine, people will continue to contract COVID through contact with other people. Hopes and promises are not vaccines.

So the only effective means of control and eradication is 100% lockdown for 4 weeks, followed by absolute quarantine for all arriving passengers who cannot prove that they have spent the last 4 weeks in a COVID-free environment.

Since the UK effectively closes for 2 weeks from 23 December, it would be entirely sensible to declare a 4 week lockdown now, if the number of new cases exceeds, say, 1 per week at the beginning of November. Having 4 months to prepare for an extension of what is normally a 2 week holiday, there should be no panic buying or riots, and even this absurd excuse for a government could surely give enough of your money to its friends and family (it's called "contracting out to the private sector") to ensure some continuity of essential services.

[evan_au]

why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time?

Because the common cold is not a virus.

The common cold is a swarm of over 200 different viruses that surround us humans and live in humans (and sometimes our pets), and have periodic outbreaks when our herd immunity falls, or one of them mutates enough to be unrecognizable. We have several outbreaks every year (more of them in winter).

Around 4 of these 200+ are coronaviruses.

You can see the immense effort put into a vaccine for 1 sometimes-lethal corononavirus.
- Now multiply that by 4 to cover 4 rarely-lethal coronaviruses.
- Now multiply that by 50 or so to cover 200+ rarely-lethal other types of virus
- The combined resources of the world's pharmaceutical companies is not enough to cure the common cold

The COVID-19 vaccine(s), if/when they are approved will have a carefully measured dose, sufficient to trigger a resistance to serious COVID disease, but not enough to trigger a severe immune reaction to the vaccine in the majority of the population.
- But some vaccines may still not be enough to prevent a person getting infecting and shedding a serious amount of virus that could affect others (apparently, the Oxford vaccine is in this category).
- Now dilute that carefully-measured dose of COVID-19 vaccine by 200 to insert vaccines to 200 other "common cold" viruses, and you will have an ineffective vaccine against COVID-19 (and probably ineffective against the other 200 too).

It is enough of an achievement that we can start distributing an effective vaccine against COVID-19 in the next 12 months.

The real bonus will not be vaccines against the common cold, but in development of techniques to produce and test vaccines against the real killers - diseases that have been endemic in some parts of the world for centuries, but which never got much attention because they didn't infect people in the wealthiest nations.

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_cold
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neglected_tropical_diseases

The other bonuses may be in the areas of:
- A better public understanding of the scientific method: Some members of the public may understand the difference between "peer reviewed" and a politician making up something during a press conference
- A better understanding that a placebo-controlled study (where there is a 50% chance you will get the medication) is actually more beneficial for the population than an uncontrolled study (where everyone gets an untried medication), and nobody is any wiser at the end.

[alancalverd]

I think it was Philip K Dick who wrote a short story about curing the common cold. His thesis was that the human nose is inherently as sensitive as that of a dog, but the continuing presence of such viruses gives mammals an attenuating layer of mucus. The magic vaccine eliminated the entire spectrum of coronaviruses, leading to extraordinary changes in human behavior due to acute sensitivity to pheromones, and information overload making cats, dogs and pigs completely insane. 

[Petrochemicals]

why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time?

The common cold is a swarm of over 200 viruses that surround us humans and live in humans (and sometimes our pets), and have periodic outbreaks when our herd immunity falls, or one of them mutates enough to be unrecognizable. We have several outbreaks every year (more of them in winter).

Around 4 of these 200+ are coronaviruses.

You can see the immense effort put into a vaccine for 1 sometimes-lethal corononavirus.
- Now multiply that by 4 to cover 4 rarely-lethal coronaviruses.
- Now multiply that by 50 or so to cover 200+ rarely-lethal other types of virus
- The combined resources of the world's pharmaceutical companies is not enough to cure the common cold

I too thought that the reason they did not develop a vaccine was the mutation, by the time you have manufacture it its useless, this is why we continue to be reinfected with colds. A problem in the corona vaccine.

[Edwina Lee (OP)]

I too thought that the reason they did not develop a vaccine was the mutation, by the time you have manufacture it its useless, this is why we continue to be reinfected with colds. A problem in the corona vaccine.

I thought that the risks & discomfort associated with a cold vaccine would exceed the consequences of having a cold.
This is sufficient to make a cold vaccine unjustifiable.

[Bored chemist]

why not find a vaccine for a common cold at the same time?

The common cold is a swarm of over 200 viruses that surround us humans and live in humans (and sometimes our pets), and have periodic outbreaks when our herd immunity falls, or one of them mutates enough to be unrecognizable. We have several outbreaks every year (more of them in winter).

Around 4 of these 200+ are coronaviruses.

You can see the immense effort put into a vaccine for 1 sometimes-lethal corononavirus.
- Now multiply that by 4 to cover 4 rarely-lethal coronaviruses.
- Now multiply that by 50 or so to cover 200+ rarely-lethal other types of virus
- The combined resources of the world's pharmaceutical companies is not enough to cure the common cold

I too thought that the reason they did not develop a vaccine was the mutation, by the time you have manufacture it its useless, this is why we continue to be reinfected with colds. A problem in the corona vaccine.

Did you understand the point Evan made?
Even if they didn't mutate, you would need about 200 vaccinations.

[alancalverd]

Interesting aside on the matter of a COVID vaccine. The object of a vaccine is to provoke an immune response. The problem with COVID is that it is the immune response, not the disease itself, that is usually disabling or fatal. So it is entirely possible that a vaccine that appears to be safe in Phase 1 (young healthy volunteers) trials will actually kill people when administered to the at-risk population.

[evan_au]

What are the best links for up to date COVID-19 statistics?

Apparently, the US CDC has quietly downplayed their recommendation for anyone with symptoms to get tested, and also the recommendation for 14-day quarantine for travelers.
- Rumors are rife that this was due to pressure from the White House, leading up to the US presidential election in early November
- Dr Fauci says he is concerned about this change

If they are trying to make the figures look good by reducing testing (something Trump has promoted for some time), it is likely to boomerang - 2 months of reduced testing and reduced quarantine is likely to lead to increased community spread and increased hospital occupancy. And nothing makes dramatic news like patients being turned away from overloaded hospitals, or pictures of patients filling the hallways...
See: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/fauci-says-he-has-some-concern-about-change-covid-19-n1238208

[alancalverd]

If they are trying to make the figures look good by reducing testing

You can't fatten a pig by weighing it, so why bother with testing? It only creates numbers.
The USA abolished common sense 4 years ago, and is about to ratify that decision.