[nudephil (OP)]

Glen asks the following?

When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?

[Kryptid]

Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).

[Glenballs]

Glen asks the following?

When will we be able to stop wearing face coverings and stop social distancing?

what do you mean

[Glenballs]

Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).

what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon

[Bored chemist]

Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).

what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon

It depends what you mean by "soon".
It will take months to vaccinate a large enough pool of people for it to make a difference.
My guess (and it's no more than that) is that we are about half way through and have 6 to 12 months to go.

[alancalverd]

"Herd immunity" is generally achieved when a random 80% of the group has been immunised or infected and recovered. It is likely that COVID will require a larger fraction because the vaccination program will not be random: we can assume that students, for instance, will be low priority and prospectively all infectious by the end of next term.

I agree with BC: 6 to 12 months looks about right, assuming, of course, that the vaccine confers reasonably longterm immunity. If not, this will drag on until we are close to 100% vaccination and annual top-ups.

[evan_au]

It depends on whether the vaccine candidates prevent infection (eg with neutralising antibodies) or if it just reduces the severity of infection (but you are still infectious).
- That is why the Phase 3 clinical trials are continuing. Press releases have described the impact of the disease on the vaccinated people. But it hasn't really teased out how long the vaccine lasts.
- The press releases I've seen haven't yet described the level of protection for surrounding non-vaccinated people
- That means there is a real risk that the vaccinated people will ignore all precautions, and cause another outbreak
- Potentially, that means if you work in aged care and are exposed to the virus, you may still need to stop work until almost everyone has a good immune response (which may or may not come from the first vaccines on the market)

I suspect that travel insurance companies will resume insuring travelers who have been vaccinated.
- That will lead to a gradual growth in international air travel and resumption of cruises during 2021
- But travel won't get back to exactly where it was, as a number of companies have gone bankrupt during 2020

Many businesses have realized that teleconferencing can be an effective tool, and doesn't waste half the day traveling. One thing I miss is having a big whiteboard that everyone can gather around and draw on together - I haven't seen any effective electronic substitutes
- Many employees have realized that they can work effectively at a remote location - and are looking to move to areas with lower cost of living (eg lower cost of housing). And some employers are willing to consider it (although some want to reduce the wages in response...)

The Coronacast podcast recently asked listeners "What COVID practices will you continue, after the pandemic is under control?"
- One listener said: Not having children blow out candles on a cake, and then hand out pieces of cake to everyone. I can't believe that was ever acceptable...

[evan_au]

The impacts of infection vs transmission: Coronacast interviews a virologist.
10 minutes: https://www.abc.net.au/radio/programs/coronacast/will-a-coronavirus-vaccine-actually-stop-you-getting-covid/12957988

[Glenballs]

Whenever COVID-19 goes away (at least has a significantly reduced incidence rate).

what do you mean please? as a vaccine is out now so does that mean masks and social distancing will end soon

It depends what you mean by "soon".
It will take months to vaccinate a large enough pool of people for it to make a difference.
My guess (and it's no more than that) is that we are about half way through and have 6 to 12 months to go.

as the vaccine rollout is from tomorrow , will life be back to normal and no facemasks and social distancing from february / march, spring next year as thats what we all hear

[alancalverd]

No way.

Vaccination will not treat existing infections, which will rise beyond Trump's wildest dreams in the next four weeks, from the current 2.5% of the UK population to well over 4% by early January, at which point the epidemic will not be containable by present restrictions. The return of students and schoolkids will precipitate a disaster not previously seen outside the USA.

[Glenballs]

No way.

Vaccination will not treat existing infections, which will rise beyond Trump's wildest dreams in the next four weeks, from the current 2.5% of the UK population to well over 4% by early January, at which point the epidemic will not be containable by present restrictions. The return of students and schoolkids will precipitate a disaster not previously seen outside the USA.

so are you saying just because the massive rollout of vaccines has begun today, things still wont be back to normal early next year. and when do you think i will get the vaccine im aged 30

[alancalverd]

Sadly, unless you are a front line healthcare worker or in some other essential industry, I think you will be in the lowest priority group as you fall into the cusp of least likely to be harmed by COVID (too young) and least likely to bring it home to your family (not a student or schoolkid).

Best thing is to rejoice in your privileged status whilst disposable old fogeys like me get vaccinated with some unproven witches' brew and sent out to deal with the great unwashed again.

[Glenballs]

Sadly, unless you are a front line healthcare worker or in some other essential industry, I think you will be in the lowest priority group as you fall into the cusp of least likely to be harmed by COVID (too young) and least likely to bring it home to your family (not a student or schoolkid).

Best thing is to rejoice in your privileged status whilst disposable old fogeys like me get vaccinated with some unproven witches' brew and sent out to deal with the great unwashed again.

So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing

[set fair]

Quite agree with Alan. There may be a tsunami of infections among the vaccineea, engulfing the unvaccinayed and it may not happen when we expect it.

 

[ everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing

Explain this to me, I don't understand. My granfather was ordered to climb out of a trench and walk slowly into a hail of machine gun fire. All we're being asked to do is wear a mask and keep our distance. I find it no more inconvenient than wearing a seat belt or a motorcycle helmet.

[alancalverd]

So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing

Those who are fed up with face masks and social distancing  will eventually get sick, infect each other,  and place a burden on the rest of us who pay taxes to keep idiots alive. If they reproduce faster than intelligent people, the UK will eventually become a permanently quarantined prison colony run by the worst of its inmates. It's happening in the USA already.

[Bored chemist]

I find it no more inconvenient than wearing a seat belt or a motorcycle helmet.

We needed legislation to get people to do those.
"Common sense" seems quite rare.

[Glenballs]

So what are the chances of life returning to normal next year then, because everyone is fed up with face masks and social distancing

Those who are fed up with face masks and social distancing  will eventually get sick, infect each other,  and place a burden on the rest of us who pay taxes to keep idiots alive. If they reproduce faster than intelligent people, the UK will eventually become a permanently quarantined prison colony run by the worst of its inmates. It's happening in the USA already.

so will covid go away next year and will we definitely be able to get rid of the face masks and social distancing

[alancalverd]

No.

Western governments will continue to negotiate with the virus in the hope of being re-elected because they have allowed you to go on holiday and infect warmer nations, or kill your grandmother at Christmas.

Politics is the art of choosing between the unpalatable and the unacceptable. Very few politicians are capable of making the right choice, and idiots will always vote for the unacceptable because it is palatable. 

[Bored chemist]

It's interesting: in the USA they have a president who has already lost the election. So he doesn't need to consider his chances of re-election.
In the UK we have a PM who doesn't face any election for 4 years or so.
He has an overwhelming majority.
He does not need to consider the chances of re-lection.

And yet neither of them has the sense to do the unpopular, but necessary, thing and actually slow the spread of the virus.
I presume that's not so much political ambition as just innate evil.

[alancalverd]

 

I presume that's not so much political ambition as just innate evil.

That's a very fine line to draw. The veneer is so thin that politicians have to shave very carefully.