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  4. What is the likelihood that an authority view is correct?
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What is the likelihood that an authority view is correct?

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Offline Bill S

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #20 on: 22/02/2015 19:00:21 »
Quote from: Ophiolite
How many young persons, potentially interested in science have been turned off by the childish behaviour on display?

Hopefully not many. I often tell people that of the various science discussion forums I have tried, TNS is in my experience the best.   It saddens me to see personal attacks, if unchecked it is the start of circling the drain for the forum.
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Offline Caleb

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Re: Certainty or "Tentative Certainty"
« Reply #21 on: 23/02/2015 00:06:33 »
I think the experts are fairly much in line with the consensus. Science consists of model-building that gets it more and more correct, also more complicated, perhaps more limited in the areas predicted to, etc.

Every now and then incredible theories burst through that revolutionize science -- continental drift, evolution, Semmelweiss and Pasteur, helicobacter pilori, horizontal gene transfer, etc.

But I do think that scientists do tend to "sit before a fact as a child."

And on the other hand, we are tribal animals and perhaps evolution has made us this way. Also, money (see http://www.nytimes.com/2015/02/22/us/ties-to-corporate-cash-for-climate-change-researcher-Wei-Hock-Soon.html?_r=0 for global denier Wei-Hock Soon), tribal beliefs ("We're right! You're wrong!" "Obama is a muslim!"), etc.

But science is clearly the most effective method for separating the wheat from the chaff, the long-term great ideas from the nonsense. It is the best way to overcome confirmation bias (e.g., see http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/N-rays for a wonderful example of confirmation bias).

T. H. Huxley himself said: "The great tragedy of Science — the slaying of a beautiful hypothesis by an ugly fact." (The same one who said we should sit before a fact as a child. And he said many other terrific things as well.)

MOTC -- (my own two cents)

Caleb
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Offline allan marsh (OP)

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #22 on: 24/02/2015 15:09:28 »
So sorry folks. It does seem that lots of you are certain that you are uncertain.
I, as Allan Marsh, obviously must declare that my name is not allan marsh

I do have patents taken out by employers with me as the declared inventor.
I do declare x years in the nuclear industry, Bucks. and Dounreay.
I do declare having been involved in thermal, silver zinc, lithium, all metal air type batteries amongst others
I do declare that although retired and probably considered a jrn contributor, and probably on the way out, I am still with it!
I do declare having met Mr N  Bohr in 1961 so that does make me gagga!

One thing I must declare is that some answers I have seen from some " experts"  make me squirm!
So unless you have fun tracking my IP I remain just some other person, having had great fun, on the site.
Allan Marsh dies. today but I do believe in Reincarnation!     Now there is another question..... Experts?
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A man that knows he is right is almost sure to be wrong.....etc.  Michael faraday 1819
 

Offline PmbPhy

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #23 on: 24/02/2015 23:06:09 »
Quote from: alancalverd
Ditto for Pete.
Thank you Sir. That is most kind of you. :)

Quote from: alancalverd
There's nothing in science about which anyone can disagree.
I strongly disagree. Einstein held that non-inertial frames are equivalent to gravitational fields whereas Wheeler disagreed requiring that a field has to have spacetime curvature in order for a gravitational field to be present. These are no the same requirements. Some people hold that mass varies with speed while others don't. I.e. these people disagree on the definitions.
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Offline Ethos_

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #24 on: 24/02/2015 23:33:20 »
Quote from: Ophiolite on 22/02/2015 14:10:32
I am uncertain about several things:

Is PmbPhy really unaware of how emotionally laden and offensive some of his posts are?

Maybe offensive for those that come here to prove themselves as superior. I've personally have never had a cross word from him, but then of course, I came here to learn.

A few individuals come to this forum thinking that they are candidates for the Noble Peace Prize. When they discover that we have very knowledgeable members here that quickly uncover flaws in their theories, they begin accusing us by suggesting we have an elitist attitude. If I may be very blunt, those individuals would be better served to listen when shown their errors. Regrettably, they waste the opportunity to learn and start insulting those who truly want to encourage them with the facts.

The question everyone should ask themselves is this: "Did I come here to learn or to teach?" If I came to learn, I have a great opportunity to do so. If I came here to teach, I had better know my stuff because if I don't, I will eventually be found out.
« Last Edit: 24/02/2015 23:50:04 by Ethos_ »
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Offline PmbPhy

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #25 on: 25/02/2015 00:06:24 »
[quote author=Ethos_ M
aybe offensive for those that come here to prove themselves as superior. I've personally have never had a cross word from him, but then of course, I came here to learn.

A few individuals come to this forum thinking that they are candidates for the Noble Peace Prize. When they discover that we have very knowledgeable members here that quickly uncover flaws in their theories, they begin accusing us by suggesting we have an elitist attitude. If I may be very blunt, those individuals would be better served to listen when shown their errors. Regrettably, they waste the opportunity to learn and start insulting those who truly want to encourage them with the facts.

The question everyone should ask themselves is this: "Did I come here to learn or to teach?" If I came to learn, I have a great opportunity to do so. If I came here to teach, I had better know my stuff because if I don't, I will eventually be found out.
[/quote]
You should listen to him, Ophiolite. You can certainly learn a lot from him.

I have a great deal of respect for Ethos. Even though my knowledge of physics is greater than his, he certainly is as wise, perhaps a lot wiser, than I am.
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Offline PhysBang

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #26 on: 25/02/2015 14:36:20 »
Quote from: PmbPhy on 24/02/2015 23:06:09
Quote from: alancalverd
There's nothing in science about which anyone can disagree.
I strongly disagree. Einstein held that non-inertial frames are equivalent to gravitational fields whereas Wheeler disagreed requiring that a field has to have spacetime curvature in order for a gravitational field to be present. These are no the same requirements.
I don't think that this is a serious difference. In order to produce the non-inertial frames that Einstein desired, one has to use exactly the pseudo-Riemannian geometry that Wheeler (and everyone else?) identify with spacetime curvature.
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Offline Bill S

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #27 on: 25/02/2015 15:45:55 »
The OP was about certainty.  I believe that one thing is certain. If trolls, crackpots or whatever come to this forum and have standards that are so low that they find it necessary personally to insult other posters, experts or otherwise, if the victims respond in kind, the forum suffers, and those seriously looking to learn will be put off joining. 

The son of a friend of mind recently said that one advantage of having tinted windows in your car is that idiot road users who do things to upset other drivers never know if their action drew a response.  This, he thought, frustrated the hell out of them, as a response was what they were looking for. I think there are some posters who are just looking for an angry response.  Why give it to them, when ignoring them would be more effective?  BTW: I don’t put John in that category; I believe he puts thought into his ideas, and, right or wrong, they have elicited responses from which I have learned.

Pete, you spent a short time on SAGG, I have been posting there for longer than I have been on TNS.  I have seen good posters leave because of the trolling, crackpottery and aggression.  Anyone interested in examples of frustrated attempts to engage seriously with the “dogmatic” might visit SAGG and look for my (and others’) efforts to talk to PreEarth.  Then there’s “Newton” – no comment!

Let’s keep TNS the best “open” discussion forum on science.
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Offline PmbPhy

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #28 on: 25/02/2015 19:41:08 »
Quote from: PhysBang
I don't think that this is a serious difference. In order to produce the non-inertial frames that Einstein desired, one has to use exactly the pseudo-Riemannian geometry that Wheeler (and everyone else?) identify with spacetime curvature.
That's incorrect. One can create non-inertial frames by merely changing the spacetime coordinates. E.g. changing from an inertial frame S in flat spacetime to a uniformly accelerating frame of reference will (1) produce a non-inertial frame of reference and (2) not produce spacetime curvature. Spacetime curvature cannot be introduced merely by a change of coordinates since its a property of the manifold itself.

And Einstein didn't associate spacetime curvature with a gravitational field. However a non-vanishing Riemann tensor in a region of spacetime R is equivalent to that region being a curved spacetime.

In any case the point was not whether it was much of a difference but whether the assertion There's nothing in science about which anyone can disagree. is correct.
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Offline Ophiolite

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #29 on: 27/02/2015 17:54:20 »
Quote from: Ethos_ on 24/02/2015 23:33:20
The question everyone should ask themselves is this: "Did I come here to learn or to teach?" If I came to learn, I have a great opportunity to do so. If I came here to teach, I had better know my stuff because if I don't, I will eventually be found out.
I came here to do both. I am ignorant of most things and hope to learn more in some of those deficient areas. I have sound knowledge in a small number of areas where "I know my stuff".

I know, for example, that PmbPhy would be more effective, on average, if he took a gentler approach. I most assuredly know that lurkers who are wavering in their understanding will be more readily persuaded of PmbPhy's assertions if he adopted such an approach.

The choice, of course, is his.
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Offline PmbPhy

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #30 on: 28/02/2015 08:17:24 »
Quote from: Ethos_
Maybe offensive for those that come here to prove themselves as superior. I've personally have never had a cross word from him, but then of course, I came here to learn.
Thanks, buddy. That's saying it like it is. Ophiolite has had a grudge against me perhaps even before he met me for reasons unknown to me. As we've discussed before he's one of those members who uses what I call "mind reading" to help him form opinions about members. That means that he forms beliefs based on what he thinks or believes[p/i] what I must have meant even though I never stated it. Some sentences can have multiple meanings which, as a result, can be read in various ways. Some of them are the correct way, i.e. the way I meant, while others are a twisting of my words. Which one is used is the one which rings true based on what he wants to believe or what fits in with what he assumes must be true.
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Offline David Cooper

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #31 on: 28/02/2015 19:00:00 »
Can you be sure that they're doing it deliberately? I think communication on the Net drives conflict because we're all under such pressure to get everything done online without it taking up too much of our time, so we get irritated easily and tend to read people wrongly, automatically assuming the worst of them.
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Offline Ophiolite

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Re: Certainty
« Reply #32 on: 01/03/2015 07:15:08 »
Quote from: David Cooper on 28/02/2015 19:00:00
Can you be sure that they're doing it deliberately? I think communication on the Net drives conflict because we're all under such pressure to get everything done online without it taking up too much of our time, so we get irritated easily and tend to read people wrongly, automatically assuming the worst of them.
Quote from: PmbPhy on 28/02/2015 08:17:24
Quote from: Ethos_
Maybe offensive for those that come here to prove themselves as superior. I've personally have never had a cross word from him, but then of course, I came here to learn.
Thanks, buddy. That's saying it like it is. Ophiolite has had a grudge against me perhaps even before he met me for reasons unknown to me. As we've discussed before he's one of those members who uses what I call "mind reading" to help him form opinions about members. That means that he forms beliefs based on what he thinks or believes[p/i] what I must have meant even though I never stated it. Some sentences can have multiple meanings which, as a result, can be read in various ways. Some of them are the correct way, i.e. the way I meant, while others are a twisting of my words. Which one is used is the one which rings true based on what he wants to believe or what fits in with what he assumes must be true.
I have no grudge against you. I have never had a grudge against you. I quite like you and think your intentions are positive, honourable, socially responsible, pro-active and lots of other great things.

I also think - no, I know - that on some occasions your passion can get in the way of those excellent intentions and turn people off, or even against you. My comments have always been designed to warn you of that - they have been singularly unsuccessful.  I'll try shutting up. The outcome from that is wholly predictable, it's just that I hate to abandon you.
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