[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

Yes they were found on the farms where cattle and sheep are kept! Deer are everywhere where there is woodland. My wife and I regularly see them in Devon and have noticed their marks on trees in other areas.

Remember it is being said that it takes widespread prolonged flooding or prolonged high humidity to bring the animals down to the point that their own immune system fails and the virus becomes a problem. Under dry conditions the virus quickly retreats, presumably because the animals become more efficient at fighting the infection.

Testing a small group of deer to see if the whole population of deer may be harbouring this virus is unscientific and destined to produce a convenient null effect given the ratio of the deer that were culled in California this would appear to be correct as 9 dead deer could have easily shown that the Californian deer population did not have F&M.

If the disease naturally dies out, how come the World still has this disease? Note the pattern in the rainy season below. And the mention of floods in the South African Extract.l


http://www.fao.org/News/2001/011207-e.htm
Foot-and-mouth disease -- the Maasai caught between two worlds
But East Africa's cattle-raising Maasai people don't kill their infected cattle. For them, foot-and-mouth disease has almost become a part of everyday life -- it's so common they refer to it using the same word they use for the common cold: oloirobi. It occurs almost every rainy season with minimal loss of life.



Foot and mouth disease: the experience of South Africa
http://www.oie.int/eng/publicat/rt/2103/A_r21334.htm
G.K. Brückner, W. Vosloo, B.J.A. Du Plessis, P.E.L.G. Kloeck, L. Connoway, M.D. Ekron, D.B. Weaver, C.J. Dickason, F.J. Schreuder, T. Marais & M.E. Mogajane
Rev. sci. tech. Off. int. Epiz., 2002, 21 (3), 751-764 http://www.oie.int/eng/publicat/rt/2103/4.2.Bruckner.pdf
Summary
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is endemic in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Kruger National Park (KNP) and surrounding game parks in South Africa. The last outbreak of the disease in domestic stock outside the FMD control zone occurred in 1957. Due to the success in containing the disease, the country was accorded zone freedom from FMD without vaccination by the Office International des Epizooties (OIE: World organisation for animal health) in 1995. This status was lost in September 2000 when the first-ever recorded case of serotype O in South Africa was diagnosed in a piggery in KwaZulu-Natal after the illegal feeding of untreated swill. In November 2000, an outbreak of FMD caused by serotype South African Territories (SAT) 1 was diagnosed in a feedlot within the free zone of Mpumalanga Province. The SAT 1 outbreak was traced to cattle in the FMD control zone south of the KNP after the game-proof fence surrounding the KNP was severely damaged by floods. This enabled buffalo to come into direct contact with cattle outside the KNP. A further outbreak caused by SAT 2 was diagnosed within the FMD control zone in February 2001, also as a result of buffalo having escaped from the KNP. All these outbreaks were successfully contained, with the re-instatement of zone freedom from FMD without vaccination by the OIE in May 2002.
These outbreaks made it necessary to re-examine the methods of control and containment of FMD that have been practised for many years and which are in line with accepted international practices. The authors describe the rationale for the different control strategies that were followed, the need for a multidisciplinary approach to disease control, the interface between control and technological and diagnostic support and the lessons learned. Some suggestions for future control strategies are also offered.
Keywords
African buffalo – Control strategies – Feedlots – Foot and mouth disease – Logistic support – Multidisciplinary approach – Office International des Epizooties – South Africa – Zones.

Take a good look at the South African experience with F&M here we have an area that has long periods without infection, yet there is a known population of wild animals that carry the disease. The mention of floods again rears its ugly head yet they blame a broken fence for cross contamination when there are ample carriers both predatory and passive and no restrictions on vehicles moving in and out of the infected areas. But the virus remains dorment for long periods. So your argument that we don’t have it so we must be clear of it does not fit with the reality of F&M.

[Bored chemist]

"Testing a small group of deer to see if the whole population of deer may be harbouring this virus is unscientific and destined to produce a convenient null effect given the ratio of the deer that were culled in California this would appear to be correct as 9 dead deer could have easily shown that the Californian deer population did not have F&M.
"
Testing only the sick deer is a much better test that you seem to think.

When there's an outbreak it doesn't just affect animal d that have been kept in flooded fields- it spreads out much like fire.
It keeps not happening even though we have bad Summers.
Why not?

You keep not really answering that question.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

I have answered it, it is not the flooded fields but the humidity and dampness that follows the floods as the water returns to the atmosphere.

You fail to understand that if the virus in South Africa can lull for years then re-emerge without an alien introduction other than birds and insects and wild animals, you have to explain how the virus knows it is in Africa, UK,France, or any other country and why it behaves different in the UK than it does in other countries.

The fact of the matter is that it does not behave any different, we also have lulls of often many years.

When I researched this during the 2001 pandemic I learned that there are indeed smaller outbreaks that go unreported over the years.

But lets take a look to see if unusually high humidity plays a roll in perpetuating the disease. Hong Kong is a good start being 2001 and 2002

The Weather of January 2001
    January 2001 was warmer and wetter than usual. The mean temperature of 17.3 degrees was 1.5 degrees above normal and the ninth highest for January. The monthly total rainfall of 47.6 millimetres was more than double the normal value of
November01: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200111.htm

December 01:  http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200112.htm

February  02:  http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200202.htm

March 02:  http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200203.htm

April 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200204.htm

May 02 : http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200205.htm

June: 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200206.htm

July 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200207.htm

August 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200208.htm

September 02  http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200109.htm

October 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200210.htm

November 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200211.htm

December 02: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200212.htm



http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/mws200201.htm  Weather January 02


Foot-and-mouth disease under control
Monday, January 26, 2004
There is no evidence to suggest that foot-and-mouth disease in Hong Kong is more serious this year than in previous years, the Agriculture, Fisheries and Conservation Department (AFCD) said today (January 26).
Some 1,200 pigs were confirmed to have been infected with foot-and-mouth disease in 2003, compared with some 2,200 and 4,100 for 2002 and 2001 respectively. Most of the pigs were infected in the winter months. In January this year about 900 pigs were reported to have been infected.
"Farmers should report foot-and-mouth disease cases to the AFCD as soon as possible. It is in their best interests to do so as this allows the AFCD to provide farmers with veterinary diagnostic services. It also enables us to monitor the serotype of the virus so that an appropriate vaccine could be chosen if a new serotype is found," AFCD's Assistant Director (Inspection and Quarantine) Mr Lai Ching-wai said.
"The AFCD has started inspecting pig farms again to look for any unreported foot-and-mouth disease cases. An operation has also been mounted by the Food and Environmental Hygiene Department to check for any illegal dumping of dead pigs," he said.
Foot-and-mouth disease is a common viral disease occurring in pigs in the region including in Hong Kong. The disease does occur in pigs in Hong Kong during the winter months. Farmers control the disease by vaccination.

Now lets take a look at the weather of 2003 in Hong Kong. The report above states F&M under control Jan 2004. So we should see a significant drop in humidity from September 2003 to January 2004.

Early September follows the high humidity trend which falls to lower levels towards the end of the month. October humidity is much lower November lower still and December lower again.

Jan 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200301.htm
Feb 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200302.htm
Mar 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200303.htm
Apr 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200304.htm
May 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200305.htm
June 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200306.htm
Jul 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200307.htm
Aug 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200308.htm
Sep 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200309.htm
Oct 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200310.htm
Nov 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200311.htm
Dec 03: http://www.hko.gov.hk/wxinfo/pastwx/metob200312.htm

[Bored chemist]

"you have to explain how the virus knows it is in Africa, UK,France, or any other country and why it behaves different in the UK than it does in other countries."
OK, that looks like an interesting challenge.
A virus cannot really "know" anything, but it does carry information. For example the virus carries information about what strain it is.
In particular, the virus that caused the 2007 outbreak was the same one that had caused the 1967 outbreak- hardly suprising since that's the strain that pirbright dealt with. The report into that outbreak points out that this particular strain is no longer found in the wild. there's a link to the report here.
http://www.hse.gov.uk/news/archive/07aug/footandmouth.htm
and this is what it says "Defra identified the strain of FMDV involved in the outbreak as Type O1 BFS67,
which is the strain recovered from the 1967 FMD epidemic in Great Britain. This strain
is used in FMD reference laboratories and pharmaceutical manufacturing plants and
is not known to be currently in circulation anywhere in the world. Hereafter this will be
referred to as the O1 BFS strain."

OK, so that's one thing this virus can be said to "know" it "knows" that it came from a research facility- not the wild..

The other question is how the virus can know it's in the UK rather than in Africa.
Again, of course, it can't- but it doesn't need to.
All it needs to do is infect the local cattle (and, lets face it, it will do that).
In Africa it will meet cattle that have often been infected before so it will not cause any infection. The animal's immune system will wipe it out.
Sometimes it will meet a young animal that has never been infected before- in this case it will cause disease but, like the different strains of the virus, there are different bloodlines in the cattle. The cattle in Africa are those whose parents and grandparents etc for many generations have withstood the virus.

In the UK it faces a different world. None of the cattle have been infected with FMD before- so they are all fully susceptible. Also, while cattle have been deliberately bred for many characteristics, FMD resistance hasn't been a factor for generations.

You might think that this difference isn't big enough to explain the observed difference between outbreaks in the UK and the endemic disease in Africa.
Have you read what happened when the first Europeans traveled to South America and introduced viruses like measles, flu etc.?
They often wiped out the local population.
http://www.millersville.edu/~columbus/papers/orlow-e.html

There's yet another thing that viruses "know" - that it doesn't help to be too virulent. If a virus causes a massive infection the host dies out before the virus spreads very far. That's not good for the virus. It makes sense for the virus to evolve into a version that causes relatively mild symptoms (or even none at all) in the host.

In the decades since the older outbreaks in the UK the wild virus will have "calmed down". The stocks maintained in labs are under no such evolutionary pressure and will Therefore be more vigorous than the current wild forms.

Since the recent outbreak was an old virus, it's not that odd that it did more damage than the current wild strains.

Incidentally, re. "When I researched this during the 2001 pandemic I learned that there are indeed smaller outbreaks that go unreported over the years."
Not in the UK there aren't.

Thanks for the Hong Kong weather reports, but the fact is that you don't have any evidence to back your conspiracy theory.

and, just to reiterate the point,
"I have answered it, it is not the flooded fields but the humidity and dampness that follows the floods as the water returns to the atmosphere. "
In much the same way that the UK often has wet Summers, it often has high humidity.
The wet (or humid) conditions are common, but outbreaks are not.
You still need to explain the lack of outbreaks in other wet Summers. The difference between "wet" and "humid" isn't that big really.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

http://ukpress.google.com/article/ALeqM5guxWtyfYWpqQXW0pO97c-Wi7iiXQ
New outbreak of bluetongue found
1 day ago
A fresh outbreak of bluetongue has been detected in livestock imported to the UK, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has said.
The disease, which can be fatal to animals such as cows and sheep, was identified in 18 cattle on premises near Bishop Auckland, County Durham.


http://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/news/3664233.Disease_outbreak_blow_to_farmers/
Disease outbreak blow to farmers
9:13am Thursday 11th September 2008
Farming leaders said last night that the latest outbreak, coming after the summer’s poor weather, which has wrecked crops, was further “dreadful news”.
Country Land and Business Association’s (CLA) regional director Dorothy Fairburn said: “This will be a blow to the whole industry.
“I would urge farmers to contact the National Farmers’ Union and the CLA for further information. It won’t have the same sort of serious effects as foot-and-mouth, but it couldn’t have come at a worse time of year for the sales of sheep and store cattle.
“It is absolutely dreadful news.”
Despite the threat from bluetongue – which has ravaged livestock across Europe – only one in five farmers have vaccinated their animals.
The disease is spread by midges that thrive in late summer weather. There are no cases of it being transferred to humans, but the illness can be fatal for cows and sheep.
The outbreak prompted warnings about importing cattle from the Continent where the NFU says the virus is virulent.
More than 30,000 cases were confirmed in France in one week last month.
NFU president Peter Kendall said: “Farmers need to be confident that either the animals have been correctly vaccinated and met all the appropriate conditions of the vaccine or they must be sure that the animals are not carrying the bluetongue virus through thorough testing.

[Bored chemist]

I'm sorry, but not suprised to hear that.
What has it got to do with the thread?
Bluetongue isn't foot and mouth disease.
FMD is not spread by biting midges which can be carried accross the channel on the wind.
FMD isn't widespread in Europe.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

Included Blue Tongue on the original post to show close relationship with weather and yes I agree that midges are responsible for infecting the herds, but suspect that the weather also plays a part in lowering the animals immune system and body temperature assisting the infection rates.

[Bored chemist]

Bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

Bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.

Bluetongue surviving winter by infecting livestock foetuses
Tuesday, 26 Aug 2008 12:13
Scientists have come up with a number of hypotheses for explaining how the Bluetongue virus survives winter.

When it first reached livestock in northern Europe in 2006 it was thought that the virus would be killed off during the winter and thereby prevent it from spreading.

However, the virus did survive the winter and in fact escalated the following year.

Scientists from the Institute for Animal Health looked into how the virus survived in the open access journal PLoS Biology.

They claim that the survival may be due to a number of different reasons. In mild winters, such as that of 2006/07 for example, the infected midges may have survived in livestock barns before becoming active again in spring.

Another possibility is that Bluetongue is in fact spread by some susceptible species of long-lived ticks and by the simple mechanical transmission by Melopagus ovinus, a wingless parasite that lives in sheep.

Evidence from Australia also points to the fact that the Bluetongue virus can survive inside midges and cattle for three to four months, enough time to survive the majority of winter.

In northern Europe, it seems that the virus can survive by transplacental infections – spreading from an infected pregnant animal to its foetus. This is a significant phenomenon in cattle due to its nine month gestation period.

Dr Mellor, of the Institute for Animal Health, concludes: "Experiments have revealed a toolbox of possible mechanisms, with the potential to interact with and complement one another..
http://www.inthenews.co.uk/news/science/

[Bored chemist]

Many bluetongue outbreaks die out in Winter when it's cold and wet.

[rosalind dna]

Bluetongue has been re occuring recently and it's a few months before real winter sets in.

If it's a cold winter then these viruses/bugs might get killed off.

[Bored chemist]

Good point, and that's what's usually observed. However Andrew seems to think that the effect of cold wet weather on the animals' immune system and body temperature will dominate.
Incidentally, does anyone have any data for the seasonal variation of body temperature among farm animals?
I know that humans maintain essentially the same temperature all year (with some daily variation) and I wonder if sheep and cattle do the same.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

Ever heard of the term fever BC? Are you aware that a period of horizontal bed rest causes the body temperature to drop by two degrees in healthy people? Have you read my post stating that this 2 degree temperature drop does not appear to happen on an inclined bed? Maybe the same avoidance of a 2 degree drop in body temperature is achieved when grazing animals lay down on a hill side all facing uphill? Maybe putting these animals on level ground in the bottom of a river valley area is not the wisest move for a farmer? Maybe preventing these animals from being moved to higher ground during an outbreak will compound the disease and turn it into a pandemic?

Remember cold air holds less water than warm air, so we don’t rely on the cold to reduce the animals resistance to infection. In fact higher temperatures and copious amounts of humidity should do just fine.

[Bored chemist]

"Ever heard of the term fever BC? "
Yes, its what you get after getting an infection. Becuse it's after the inecton srikes, it's a complete red herring.
"Are you aware that a period of horizontal bed rest causes the body temperature to drop by two degrees in healthy people?"
Yes, that's why I mentioned the daily variation. Most people lie down to sleep.
"Have you read my post stating that this 2 degree temperature drop does not appear to happen on an inclined bed?"
Interesting data. Do you have any indications that it might apply to non human species?
"Maybe the same avoidance of a 2 degree drop in body temperature is achieved when grazing animals lay down on a hill side all facing uphill? "
Maybe, do you have any data?
Here is story about the real data
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/howaboutthat/2623809/Cows-point-north-thanks-to-in-built-compasses.html
Cows align temselves facing North, not uphill.
"Maybe putting these animals on level ground in the bottom of a river valley area is not the wisest move for a farmer? Maybe preventing these animals from being moved to higher ground during an outbreak will compound the disease and turn it into a pandemic?"
Maybe I will win the lottery, but until we know more about it this is empty speculation.

"Remember cold air holds less water than warm air, so we don’t rely on the cold to reduce the animals resistance to infection. In fact higher temperatures and copious amounts of humidity should do just fine."
Hot air certainly holds more water. Cows are generally slightly warmer than the air round them.
The air they breathe out is near saturated with water at roughly 101F so the net effect of wet air is to reduce the water loss from the cow's lungs.
You seem not to have noticed which way the water is going.

[backgroundwhitenoise]

I believe i read in an article a few months ago (Mind you I'm only pretty sure of this, it could be complete BS, if it is, please tell me) that FMD was also known as a form of cutaneous anthrax. Now anthrax spores are grown inside the infected animal and spread when infected blood comes in contact with a laceration in an uninfected animal, or if it is ingested or inhaled. Therefore if that strain of anthrax is actually FMD, then flooding or heavy rains could have carried the spores (which have been known to infect animals for up to 70 years after they are released) into the drinking water of the livestock, and after ingesting the spores the livestock were infected starting the process over again

[Bored chemist]

Anthrax is caused by a bacterium, FMD by a virus. They are completely unrelated.

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/7008901.stm
Government vets have confirmed bluetongue disease is circulating in the UK and is now classed as an outbreak.
What is bluetongue disease?
It is a non-contagious virus spread by a species of midge and is most commonly seen in the late summer and autumn.
All ruminants, such as cattle, goats, deer and sheep, are susceptible, although symptoms are generally most severe in sheep.
However, in certain weather, midges can be carried much further, especially over water masses - up to 200km (124 miles).
Such distances vary according to local environmental, topographical and meteorological conditions, Defra says.

[Bored chemist]

WTF does this have to do with Foot and Mouth?

[Andrew K Fletcher (OP)]

'Hunt and kill illegal Chinese deer', says GormleyBy Michael Lavery


Monday September 29 2008

TINY, four-footed Chinese "invaders" are to be shot on sight in Irish forests.

The 19-inch-high Muntjac deer have been brought into the country and released illegally into the wild, Department of the Environment officials believe.

The non-native species, also known as "barking" deer, pose a threat to the Irish deer populations of Sika, Red and Fallow.

The Department's experts say the non-native populations are susceptible to, or may act as a reservoir for, bovine TB, foot and mouth disease, Lyme's disease and bluetongue virus.

They also have a reputation for damaging crops.

Sightings

The Muntjac have been spotted in Co Wicklow in three separate areas 15km apart and some have already been shot by licenced hunters.

Now Environment Minister John Gormley has declared "open season" on the Muntjac for the next 12 months under the Wildlife Act. Native deer species are protected and can only be hunted during very specific parts of the year. But licenced deer hunters will be able to hunt Muntjac throughout the State subject to the permission of the landowner.

"The introduction of the Muntjac deer in Britain has resulted in significant damage to commercial woodland, farm crops and gardens over the years," Mr Gormley said.

"I am of the view that this authorisation ensure that the species does not gain a foothold in the country.

"My Department are examining further measures with a view to eradicating this alien species before it becomes established."

The Muntjac's small size and its liking for woodland habitats together with its extended breeding season, allows it to build up numbers and reach high densities quickly.

The Department warned it is a criminal offence to introduce and release Muntjac deer and Mr Gormley said they would vigorously pursue "any individual introducing invasive species into the State."

- Michael Lavery
http://www.herald.ie/national-news/hunt-and-kill-illegal-chinese-deer-says-gormley-1485188.html

[Bored chemist]

So?