[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

Henry @dlorde, mazurka

remember the models said that the arctic would get warmer?

Clearly, we are on a 88 year cycle, of which I have identified (from studying the maximum temps.) where we are in this cycle.
What happened now in Nenana, also happened from 1926 to 1927, namely from 116 to 133.
It means we are only 6 or 7 years off from the droughts known in history as the Dust Bowl droughts of the Great Plains, 1932-1939. Mark my words.
To end my story I quote from the local news paper
http://www.alaskadispatch.com/article/20130520/97-year-old-nenana-ice-classic-sets-record-latest-breakup-river-1

The May 20 breakup this year sets a record for the latest the ice has gone out in Nenana since local railroad workers began record keeping 97 years ago.

"It actually went out three hours to-the-minute past the previous record, set in 1964," said Cherie Forness, the executive director of the Ice Classic. To the north and west of Nenana, the Yukon River has already started to break up, causing major flooding in both Circle and Eagle.

The brutal winter Alaska experienced created more ice on the river this year. The last measurement, taken May 6, showed the river ice was 40 inches thick, and had actually grown 3 inches in just two days. By contrast, last year, the ice was only 28.7 inches thick on April 19.  After that, it became too dangerous to check. But, this year’s cold may have taken most guessers by surprise.

"Over the past few years, we have seen more and more picks for early April and fewer picks later in May," Forness said.

[wolfekeeper]

The hockey stick graph is upwards, not downwards. This could not be a more basic lack of understanding on your part.

97% of scientists, including virtually all of the ones that have looked carefully at the data, including data you will not have not looked at, say that the climate is warming, not cooling.

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

Wolfekeeper says

This could not be a more basic lack of understanding on your part.

Henry says
Can I suggest you look at my last post here:
http://www.thenakedscientists.com/forum/index.php?topic=47800.0

perhaps that will make things clearer for you
.....especially to see that I am not alone.....

[wolfekeeper]

Frankly I trust the Royal Society and the IPCC far more than I trust a dodgy org site called CO2Science.org that's funded by Exxon.

On the one hand, 97% of the worlds scientists, on the other, a site paid for by a fossil fuel producer. Mmm, who would be more likely to tell the truth? Tricky.

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

bored chemist says
I have done it myself!

henry says
hence the saying here:
only mad dogs and englishmen go out in the midday sun.

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

henry@wolfekeeper   you mean: http://wattsupwiththat.com/2013/05/22/the-collapsing-consensus/

[dlorde]

There has been a significant drop in papers explicitly endorsing the consensus that plate tectonics drives continental drift, that helicobacter causes stomach ulcers, that ours is one of many galaxies, that quantum entanglement is a real phenomenon.

It doesn't mean they are no longer consensus, or that there is increasing doubt about them. It means they are well-established and research focus has turned to clarifying the details.

New evidence could change that, of course.

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

I hate the cold. It will be winter soon and I wanted to see how bad things are, here where I live. I looked at the change in the daily temperatures in every month of June in every year going back to 1974. Below is the graph that I ended up with. I found that from 2000-2012 we have been going down at an average rate of 0.06 degrees C per annum, in June. That is about 0.7 degrees C in total, since 2000.

With all the global warming going on, I had been hoping that things would be getting warmer, especially here in Pretoria, where we have inversion in winter, and, as a result of increased veld fires and burning of wood and coal, one expects to find elevated CO2 levels here in the winter months, trapped in between layers.

The graphs prove that adding more CO2 in the air is not going to help us one bit against the coming (common) cold……..

[wolfekeeper]

Why are there only 4 points on the graph, and what reason do you have to think that taking a day in june is representative?

Also is the change in temperature, or the difference in temperature from (say) 1980? Because it looks like if you added up all the differences you get a positive temperature.

Also, error bars, where are the error bars?

This is all nonsense anyway, the consensus of many scientists doing different experiments is that global warming is happening. You won't necessarily get local warming, but you usually will.

[CliffordK]

It is impossible to judge global climate by looking at the weather in a single town.

Why do you only display one point every decade?  Surely there is more data than that available.  Then you seem to skip 2010 and go directly to 2012.

In fact, essentially your entire trend is based on a single point (2012), in a single town.

Oddly, when I downloaded the Pretoria chart from NASA/GISS, I see a somewhat different trend.

[CliffordK]

Ahhh,

You were not only Judging the global climate based on a few points for a single city, but also a single month.

I've plotted the month of June, based on the NASA/GISS data set above.

 [ Invalid Attachment ]

I'm just not seeing the trends that you're finding.

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

henry@clifford
no I was not looking at global at all now, I wanted to know local.
<removed - see warning>

I am always looking at the average change from the average over time.
e.g. from 2012 - 1974 (which happened to be zero for June, Pretoria), from 2012- 1980, from from 2012 - 1990 and from 2012 -2000 (= one solar cycle)
I got my data from tutiempo.net
e.g.
http://www.tutiempo.net/clima/Pretoria/2012/682620.htm

Your data I donot trust, esp. from before 1974
e.g. how do you separate data where they introduced thermo couples and continuous recording from how it was done before?>
but can you give me a link?

[MoreCarbonOK (OP)]

henry@clifford

your data in 2006 and 2007 are completely out with mine.
It never got to 15 or 16 here ever, on average, in June, in Pretoria.
In 2006 it was 11.7
in 2007 it was 11.9

those are only the peaks that I compared.
You can keep your GISS data....

[CliffordK]

The link for the NASA/GISS data for Pretoria is above.  See the link for downloadable text data at the bottom of that page.

The peak that is shown was in June 2004 (16.1°C) & June 2005 (15°C)
There are a few holes in the dataset, and no data is displayed for June 2007, and of course, not for June 2013.

The nearest other weather station being reported on the NASA/GISS system with data in 2004/2005 appears to be the Jan Smuts.  For that weather station, 2004 (10.7°C) appears to be close to the average temperature for June (10.49°C), but 2005 is also high, 12.5°C, which would give further information to validate the Pretoria data.

At one time, I had read an article about the NASA/GISS data verification, but I no longer have a link to that article.  I'm sure it can be found on the web.  They are supposed to make an attempt to verify the validity of outlying data points by looking at other nearby weather stations, and other data sources.  Certainly today there would be a number of redundant data sources which would not have been available in 1950.

Even if you just look at Pretoria, and the month of June in Pretoria, there does seem to be a slow drifting upwards of temperatures since about 1970 or 1980.  Certainly it would be difficult to discern a cooling trend.