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If the probability in y is (1/52)*5 then probability in x is (1/52)*52 which is nonsense.
Where are you getting (1/52)*52 from?
there is 5 chances of 1/52 that the top card is an ace of diamonds
in fact there is a 0-∞/t chance an ace of diamonds is the top card.52x²=(1/52)*52=152x²=2704/13/4=52Y=52ax=52b
If p1 receives the top card and it is an ace, the probability of the top card being an ace after the next shuffle is P{_N}=4/52^2?
"scalar direction" is meaningless.QuoteIf p1 receives the top card and it is an ace, the probability of the top card being an ace after the next shuffle is P{_N}=4/52^2?No. The shuffles are independent so P{_N} = 4/52 every time.But the probability of drawing two aces in successive shuffles is obviously (1/13)^2Hence "beginner's luck". You remember your first win, whether it was your first game or your 13th, but the probability of winning n games in a short sequence thereafter is the square, cube.... nth power of 1/13 so it looks as though your luck runs out even though it hasn't changed at all. And of course it's more complicated in a real poker game because "first to draw an ace" is not the winning hand, and a good bluffer can win with an empty hand.
Hi, I am confused,I thought Colin was close to understanding and agreeing with me,
Now Alan seem's close to understanding.
Hence "beginner's luck". ...
1. I have absolutely no idea what {_sn} means2. Poker has nothing to do with chaos theory. The fall of the cards is pure linear statistics.
Huh? I explained what {_sn} means further up the page, it means a specific variant of a set, i.e the ace of diamonds.
P{_sn} from x is always 1/52
P{_sn} from Y is ?It is unknown and can never be known, it is chaos.
I really do understand what I am on about.
Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 07:34:16Huh? I explained what {_sn} means further up the page, it means a specific variant of a set, i.e the ace of diamonds.No you didn't explain at all. Your use of set notation is confusing, better not to use it unless you are intending to manipulate sets.The way you wrote your subset n as being sets of 4 cards means P(n)=1/4 - which is not what you intended.Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 07:34:16P{_sn} from x is always 1/52 AgreedQuote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 07:34:16P{_sn} from Y is ?It is unknown and can never be known, it is chaos. Rubbish. It is also 1/52Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 07:34:16I really do understand what I am on about. No you don't.However, I am beginning to see where you are confusing yourself. If I get time I will put together an explanation later today.I'm not going to comment on the rest of your post as it is so confusing, both to you and others.
Let's get to the nub of this. If you play any game of pure chance against n -1 other players, the probability of your winning is 1/n.Poker cards are randomly shuflled for each hand so if all players are of zero skill and stake the same amount, your longterm return will be 1/n of everyone's stake - i.e, your stake (less the house commission, of course). And everyone else will receive exactly the same.But there is a considerable element of skill in poker, so in real life your return will be x/n (where x represents your fraction of the total skill around the table) as long as everyone plays. But people drop out and the final head-to-head is effectively a winner-takes-all contest of skill, but because it involves a large element of chance it takes longer than a darts or boxing match to resolve. No difficult maths involved. As with any game from chess to cricket, if you play a lot, against better players, you will learn a bit and lose a lot. At least in chess and cricket there are leagues and ratings tables so you can choose an opponent of your own level and have fun.I prefer backgammon.
123231123the rows are not the same as the columns.P(1)/x=1/3P(1)/y=?/3
I could explain consequence all day long, ''butterfly effect'', x/t would be standard, x,y/t is completely random winners.
Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 10:09:33 I could explain consequence all day long, ''butterfly effect'', x/t would be standard, x,y/t is completely random winners. The butterfly effect is the consequence of a trigger in an unstable system. In poker the system is stable but contains a random element. The art is to ride the wave you are given, but unlike surfing, you can't see it coming.
There is no set sequence in poker. You cannot usefully compare three carefully chosen groups wth an infinity of random ones. It's another part of the Gambler's Delusion.It's your money and your life. Gamblers Anonymous have more experience and patience than me in dealing with your problem.Alfa Charlie out.
I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,
Quote from: Thebox on 05/07/2015 18:16:51I will give up , although I know very well I am correct,You give up without having read and understood our posts. For that reason you will never understand why you are wrong, and you will never learn maths and probability.A pity, because you could have.