Is there a law of improbability

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Offline thedoc

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Is there a law of improbability
« on: 11/08/2016 22:23:01 »
martyn willis asked the Naked Scientists:
   Is there a law of improbability and if so what is it?
What do you think?
« Last Edit: 11/08/2016 22:23:01 by _system »

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Offline Fruityloop

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Re: Is there a law of improbability
« Reply #1 on: 13/08/2016 05:17:26 »
I think there may be, such as: If the probability of an event occurring is sufficiently small, the probability is equal to zero.  If the probability is less than 10^-50, one could make a valid argument that it will never occur.  Although the cutoff point is obviously subject to dispute.

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Offline Colin2B

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Re: Is there a law of improbability
« Reply #2 on: 13/08/2016 11:38:52 »
If the probability of an event is p, then you could say that it's improbability is 1-p.
In that case the law of improbability is implicit in the law of probability.
and the misguided shall lead the gullible,
the feebleminded have inherited the earth.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is there a law of improbability
« Reply #3 on: 13/08/2016 18:15:40 »
Say there is a 3 in 4 chance of an event occurring. Then p = 3/4. So that 1 - p is 1/4. That seems to be a reasonable definition of improbability.

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Offline jeffreyH

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Re: Is there a law of improbability
« Reply #4 on: 13/08/2016 18:17:38 »
If we can compute an improbability density and combine it with infinite Feynman diagrams we may yet be able to build the infinite improbability drive.

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Offline Colin2B

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Re: Is there a law of improbability
« Reply #5 on: 13/08/2016 22:10:36 »
If we can compute an improbability density and combine it with infinite Feynman diagrams we may yet be able to build the infinite improbability drive.
You will then have a heart of gold Mr Jeffrey...... and probably a brain the size of a planet.
But don't let that depress you [;)]

and the misguided shall lead the gullible,
the feebleminded have inherited the earth.