[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Some EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime.

Whose? I can confidently guarantee an adult mayfly for a lifetime, because they all live exactly one lifetime. But fortunately for the fish that eat their corpses, the average is 4 hours. A friend has a 50-year-old (gasoline) car that works beautifully, as does my 50-year-old airplane - clearly 50 years is less than a "lifetime". 

https://wuling.id/en/blog/press-release/wuling-presents-lifetime-core-ev-component-warranty-program-during-binguo-ev-pre-booking

https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warranty

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store.

What's your source?
I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.

Quote from: hamdani yusuf on Yesterday at 06:02:15
What's your source?

Physics and geography.

You need your physics and geography updated.

Which part of physics and geography guarantee that hydropower will always be cheapest?
Which part of physics and geography say that hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest long term store?

[alancalverd]

https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warranty

Ah, the small print. Lifetime battery replacement warranty. Fair enough! You pay a premium up front and they replace the battery whenever....er....now read the exclusions......Hyundai is not a charity.

I understand that vehicle insurance premiums are now increasing by 40 - 50% per year for all cars because of the cost of repairing damaged EVs would make it commercially impossible to insure EVs on a separate tariff.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

https://www.torquenews.com/6968/hyundais-lifetime-ev-battery-restrictive-warranty

Ah, the small print. Lifetime battery replacement warranty. Fair enough! You pay a premium up front and they replace the battery whenever....er....now read the exclusions......Hyundai is not a charity.

I understand that vehicle insurance premiums are now increasing by 40 - 50% per year for all cars because of the cost of repairing damaged EVs would make it commercially impossible to insure EVs on a separate tariff.

If you think they set up a scam, you can sue them.

[alancalverd]

It's not a scam (they are selling a real product) but the legitimate pursuit of profit by averaging risk. The headline tells you what you want to hear and the small print tells you the whole truth.

It might be worth setting up an insurance company that doesn't cover EVs. You can charge 20% less than everyone else to make a profit and corner 60% of the market. Time was that you could insure a diesel Land Rover with a specialist for a lot  less than a general insurer because they are  (were, anyway) so easy to repair.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The battery technology has improved significantly within the last few years, in terms of safety, energy density, price, raw materials logistics, useful lifetime, performance in various environment, etc. And it hasn't shown the signs of stopping.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

What can be learned from them?

Let's start with a reflection from the past.
- We are here because our predecessors (including our past selves) do something that led to our current existence. We don't come out suddenly from vacuum randomly.
- Something that our predecessors did make our current lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.

Extrapolate to the future, something that we do will make our successors' lives easier, while some others harder, and they have different significance.
Life is a game for everyone, and the prize is continued existence of our successors.

We are not exactly the same as our ancestors. The difference is more significant when we're compared to them further in the past. Our ancestors from a billion years ago don't even look like us.

Reflecting it to the future, we should not expect that our successors in the distant future should be similar to us. Although the expectations for similarities are still preferred for the near future. We should not change a working system without good reasons. And for near future, not that many good reasons can be found. More good reasons will be found as time passes by, thus more changes should be expected.

[alancalverd]

The battery technology has improved significantly within the last few years, in terms of safety, energy density, price, raw materials logistics, useful lifetime, performance in various environment, etc. And it hasn't shown the signs of stopping.

And the cost of repairing damaged BEVs has raised the insurance premiums of everyone else.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The battery technology has improved significantly within the last few years, in terms of safety, energy density, price, raw materials logistics, useful lifetime, performance in various environment, etc. And it hasn't shown the signs of stopping.

And the cost of repairing damaged BEVs has raised the insurance premiums of everyone else.

If anyone can bring the overall cost down through their ingenuity, they will win the market. That's how a healthy competition should be.

[alancalverd]

Why? Rolls-Royce still have a major share of their particular market despite the enormous cost of repairing them. The trick of insurance is that everyone pays, not just the person with the damaged vehicle. I doubt that the cost of accident repair is a major factor in a purchase decision.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Why? Rolls-Royce still have a major share of their particular market despite the enormous cost of repairing them. The trick of insurance is that everyone pays, not just the person with the damaged vehicle. I doubt that the cost of accident repair is a major factor in a purchase decision.

Their market share is small, compared to mass produced cars.
The cost of insurance can be a significant factor, especially if you by the car for business usage.
Behavior based insurance price is now possible, like using Tesla safety score. It can reduce reckless behavior of the drivers.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

We are not exactly the same as our ancestors. The difference is more significant when we're compared to them further in the past. Our ancestors from a billion years ago don't even look like us.

Reflecting it to the future, we should not expect that our successors in the distant future should be similar to us. Although the expectations for similarities are still preferred for the near future. We should not change a working system without good reasons.
And for near future, not that many good reasons can be found. More good reasons will be found as time passes by, thus more changes should be expected.

The future belongs to conscious entities whose predecessors worked for their existence. In whatever forms and shapes that they  will take.
The trend is that surviving conscious entities tend to increase their conscious levels over time.

[alancalverd]

Behavior based insurance price is now possible,

Up to a point, but the basis of compulsory insurance is third party claims. I have the same probability of damaging a BEV as I have of damaging any other vehicle, but the BEV is inherently more expensive to repair.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Behavior based insurance price is now possible,

Up to a point, but the basis of compulsory insurance is third party claims. I have the same probability of damaging a BEV as I have of damaging any other vehicle, but the BEV is inherently more expensive to repair.

Risk is usually defined as severity times probability of incidents. It can be reduced by reducing either factor or both. It can be a selling point for car manufacturers to compete with one another.
Various driving assistant systems can reduce the probability of incidents and problems. Design and material selection can reduce the severity and cost of incidents.

[alancalverd]

However you minimise the risk, the cost of repairing a BEV is significantly greater than would be incurred by the same impact on an IC vehicle, so as more BEVs take to the roads, so the cost of insuring all vehicles will increase.

You surely aren't suggesting that I should scrap my car and buy one with automatic collision avoidance, just because you have bought a fragile one?

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

However you minimise the risk, the cost of repairing a BEV is significantly greater than would be incurred by the same impact on an IC vehicle

How do you make that conclusion?
Old machines are becoming more expensive to maintain because their manufacturer stopped supporting them anymore with new spare parts.
Advancement in 3D printing will change the situation.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

You surely aren't suggesting that I should scrap my car and buy one with automatic collision avoidance, just because you have bought a fragile one?

Old cars typically have low safety scores.

[alancalverd]

And BEVs have batteries. Just ask the trade - or an insurance company.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

And BEVs have batteries. Just ask the trade - or an insurance company.

And ICE have gasoline.

[alancalverd]

A tank of gasoline is fairly robust against small collisions and easily replaced if bent. Batteries don't bend, and are prone to internal shorting under impact.