[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

As the first knowledge, our own existence while we're thinking about it is the most certain thing there is. Its certainty is 100%. A few seconds to minutes before and after that, we can say the certainty is only slightly reduced. But further away from the origin, the certainty drops rapidly. It will look like a bell curve. Perhaps a skewed bell curve, because the past can be less unpredictable than the future.

For the next minutes, our own existence can be the most likely than anyone else.
40 years later, our own existence can be less likely than the existence of our children.
80 years later, our own existence can be less likely than the existence of our grand children.
That's assuming the currently common lifestyle and technology, which may change in the future.
The impacts of our actions can occur at delayed time. We should align our actions with the occurrence of their impacts and who are likely to be impacted.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Solar HAS become the cheapest energy source to operate.

in the short term

What would be cheaper in the long term?

[alancalverd]

There are cases where what we thought we know about the past turn out to be false.

We may not understand the prior cause, but the net effect is the present, which we can "know" up to the limits imposed by Heisenberg.

[alancalverd]

What would be cheaper in the long term?

Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store. 

Direct mechanical windmills worked for thousands of years because there is never any urgency: dry grain will keep until the wind blows, and dry flour will keep until you need it. Problem with electricity is that folk expect to have it at any time, and you can't just put it in a building with a dog (to kill the rats).

[Zer0]

Economy is about distribution of resources to achieve the terminal goal of a system effectively and efficiently.

The Trillion Dollar Equation

The most famous equation in finance, the Black-Scholes/Merton equation, came from physics. It launched an industry worth trillions of dollars and led to the world?s best investments.

References:

The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons launched the quant revolution, Gregory Zuckerman. Penguin Publishing Group. - https://ve42.co/GZuckerman

The Physics of Finance: Predicting the Unpredictable: Can Science Beat the Market? James Owen Weatherall. Short Books. - https://ve42.co/FinancePhysics

The Statistical Mechanics of Financial Markets, J.Voigt. Springer. - https://ve42.co/Springer

Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The pricing of options and corporate liabilities. Journal of political economy, 81(3), 637-654. - https://ve42.co/BlackScholes

Cornell, B. (2020). Medallion fund: The ultimate counterexample?. The Journal of Portfolio Management, 46(4), 156-159. - https://ve42.co/Medallion

The " Titles " are completely Misleading!

The very act of Predictions, high or low, is what Affects the Final outcome.

ps - In Life, the Universe & 0ther Things...
There are N0 Guarantees..
0nly Probabilities
&
0nly Uncertainties!
(An0n)

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Hydropower will always be cheapest, but very limited. Wind next, in most areas. But you still need storage for unreliables, and hydrogen is almost certainly the cheapest longterm store.

What's your source?
I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The very act of Predictions, high or low, is what Affects the Final outcome.

Not the prediction itself per se, but the real actions based on the prediction. That's including publication of the prediction, which can affect the decision and actions of other economic players.
Predictions alone without follow up actions are not that influential.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Investor expectations are 'getting ahead of the reality,' strategist says

US stock markets could be looking for sustainability after February's rampant rally powered by Magnificent Seven earnings. CFRA Research Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall
"Right now the S&P 500 (^GSPC) technology sector is trading at a 56% premium to its average P/E on forward 12-month earnings over the last 25 years," Stovall says. "On a relative basis, it's at a 25% premium to the S&P 500 itself, even though it is primarily the driver of the S&P 500. So, a lot of other sectors are in 20% premium areas like communication services..."
Stovall also comments on tech valuations, AI-exposed stocks, and his expectations for Thursday's PCE print.

[alancalverd]

What's your source?

Physics and geography.

I've heard that solar energy is going to be even cheaper than now, which is already the cheapest.

They used to say that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter.
Once you have installed a solar panel it will produce electricity whenever the sun shies, with a useful life of 10 - 25 years, but that's the easy bit. Battery performance decreases to uneconomic after 5 - 10 years and you need a big investment in inverters if you are going to transmit your product over a grid. Plus, of course, a lot of land.

And then you have to make lots of battery-powered vehicles, covert all your domestic and industrial heating to electric, and increase grid capacity by a factor of 4. That would need an awful lot of fossil fuel!

Interestingly, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf suggests that whilst primary (DC) solar power is indeed carbon-efficient over a lifetime, wind has almost the same carbon footprint per kWh as coal!

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Battery performance decreases to uneconomic after 5 - 10 years

Some EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime. It shows that they are confident in the reliability of their battery to be longer than 20 years.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

And then you have to make lots of battery-powered vehicles, covert all your domestic and industrial heating to electric, and increase grid capacity by a factor of 4. That would need an awful lot of fossil fuel!

Continuing business as usual will need even more fossil fuel.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

They used to say that nuclear power would be too cheap to meter

Technically, the sun is a nuclear reactor.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Interestingly, https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/56487.pdf suggests that whilst primary (DC) solar power is indeed carbon-efficient over a lifetime, wind has almost the same carbon footprint per kWh as coal!

We can build solar panels and wind mills as small as we want around residence, farm yards, and buildings. They produce zero emission. We don't worry about fuel resupply transport and storage.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Quote from: hamdani yusuf on Yesterday at 06:02:15
What's your source?

Physics and geography.

You need your physics and geography updated.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Billionaires Are Secretly Directing Asteroids To Earth and We Don?t Know Why

The video depicts asteroid mining, especially for exotic materials or precious metals which are in high demands but limited supply on earth. It relies on the assumption that humans won't be able to synthesize those materials economically using raw materials from earth.
IMO, the future of nuclear fusion technology is not in producing energy, but rather in nuclear transmutations, or producing desired elements from other more abundant elements.

[alancalverd]

You need your physics and geography updated.

I doubt it. Neither has changed much in the last 500,000 years.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

You need your physics and geography updated.

I doubt it. Neither has changed much in the last 500,000 years.

Then you need to learn about theory of knowledge.

[alancalverd]

Some EV makers have already guaranteed their battery for a lifetime.

Whose? I can confidently guarantee an adult mayfly for a lifetime, because they all live exactly one lifetime. But fortunately for the fish that eat their corpses, the average is 4 hours. A friend has a 50-year-old (gasoline) car that works beautifully, as does my 50-year-old airplane - clearly 50 years is less than a "lifetime". 

[alancalverd]

Then you need to learn about theory of knowledge.

The height of intellectual arrogance! What I know about physics and geography has absolutely no influence on the way the universe works, has done for several billion years, and is likely to do so for ever.

[alancalverd]

Billionaires Are Secretly Directing Asteroids To Earth and We Don?t Know Why

The video depicts asteroid mining, especially for exotic materials or precious metals which are in high demands but limited supply on earth. It relies on the assumption that humans won't be able to synthesize those materials economically using raw materials from earth.

It also relies on the assumption that nobody else will do it. If you double the supply of goods, you can reduce the market price below the cost of making the addition. No problem, if you ignore human greed and competitiveness.

Plus the slightly complicated business of re-entry. Less than 5% of any meteor makes it to the ground. So simply transporting the bare rock isn't going to be very economical. You'll have to process the ore in situ to extract the high-value material. So we are talking about self-sustaining mines and refineries in the asteroid belt.

All entirely feasible as far as chemistry and physics are concerned, but who is going to invest in a multi-year project to supply a material based on current demand?  By the time anything is built, it is out of date. Not a problem in the short term but how do you guarantee the supply of spare parts, or the demand for the product, 100 years hence?