[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Do We Get the $100 Trillion AI Windfall? Sam Altman's Plans, Jobs & the Falling Cost of Intelligence

Sam Altman predicted this week that OpenAI could capture up to $100 trillion of the world's wealth. But what are his plans for OpenAI to distribute that wealth? I analyse all three plans, cover his financial stake, his case for UBI, a science org and the American Equity Fund.

From papers and interviews released in recent days, I go over his predictions for massive inequality, which jobs will be impacted most, what tasks OpenAI thinks will be automated, recent surveys of business leaders and their plans to use ChatGPT for job replacement, the Goldman Sachs job analysis and which jobs Altman thinks will be hit first (customer service).

I also cover two recent productivity experiments to test the impact of GPT models and the YouGov survey on stopping it all. President Biden weighs in, Levi's gets backlash, Wired thinks human work has a chance and Sam reveals his back-up plan to use AGI to solve AGI's problems.

Demonetization of resources is coming to information processing services, including decision makings, which is what highly paid executives and politicians do. IMO, the inequality will spike up for a moment, but then back down when AI models are capable of reliably making better decisions than the best human individuals.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Good economic systems redirect resources to areas which would generate even more resources in the future. The agriculture revolution shows that setting aside some grain of rice as seed to grow up in farmlands produce more rice compared to consuming all of them.

[alancalverd]

Followed by the second agricultural revolution that produces sterile GM rice. You get a massive yield, thus putting your competitors out of business, but you have to buy next year's seed from the manufacturers, who can charge whatever they like as long as their patent lasts. Good economic system, humanitarian objective to feed the world, or rampant capitalism? 

[alancalverd]

Thus, unless you are immortal, your long term goals need to cover beyond your own lifetime to keep them relevant.
Some of us has expressed their goal to make the world a better place for their descendants to live.

But your descendants are individuals with the right to organise their own lives and set their own objectives, so the best you can do is provide them with as many options and resources as possible, which is a reasonable short term goal.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Followed by the second agricultural revolution that produces sterile GM rice. You get a massive yield, thus putting your competitors out of business, but you have to buy next year's seed from the manufacturers, who can charge whatever they like as long as their patent lasts. Good economic system, humanitarian objective to feed the world, or rampant capitalism? 

That's why capitalism need to be regulated. The regulations must be based on longer term goals. Otherwise, the system will self destruct, and will be replaced by newer systems. That can be costly.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

But your descendants are individuals with the right to organise their own lives and set their own objectives, so the best you can do is provide them with as many options and resources as possible, which is a reasonable short term goal.

It's also important to identify which resources are more needed in the future, so we don't waste more resources to gather future useless resources. That requires long term thinking.
Not all objectives are equal. They are instrumental goals to help achieving the terminal goals. Not all terminal goals are equal. They are more valuable when they are more aligned with the universal terminal goal.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Generative AI Is About To Reset Everything, And, Yes It Will Change Your Life | Forbes

Whether you like it or not, generative AI like ChatGPT and Stable Diffusion are about to change not only how you work, but how the content you consume is produced. Forbes spoke with a number of leading voices in the AI space to determine both the benefits and the dangers of this next wave of technological innovation, and find out why both tech giants as well as cutting edge startups are racing to grab their share of the market.

0:00 Introduction
1:17 What is generative AI?
2:02 Why Forbes decided to cover this story
2:18 The rise of Open AI
3:11 AI's recent hype
4:30 Stability AI and Stable Diffusion
6:39 Bill Gates thoughts on generative AI
7:53 Where AI can help in workflows
9:56 The issues with AI that need to be resolved
12:04 How do we set safeguards for AI to protect society?
15:14 How will we further incorporate AI in the future?
19:14 The idea of "platform democracy"
20:56 How we used AI for this video

We have seen negative impact of algorithms optimized for maximizing human engagement such as Facebook, TikTok, YouTube,, Google. It's time to find better goals that the algorithms should be optimized for.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

How AGI can power Democracy — Ilya Sutskever

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Demonetization of resources is coming to information processing services, including decision makings, which is what highly paid executives and politicians do. IMO, the inequality will spike up for a moment, but then back down when AI models are capable of reliably making better decisions than the best human individuals.

The video below shows that I'm not the only one with that opinion.

GPT-4 Applications: CEOs Are Now Replaceable?

A top GPT-4 demos compilation.
In this video, I've collected some of the best & jaw-dropping GPT-4 Applications during the first 3 weeks since GPT-4 launch.

[alancalverd]

It is important to have someone to blame when the decision turns out to be wrong. In a competitive business environment, half of all decisions must be wrong, but they must be made. However AI could speed thing up a bit by producing outputs based on very full knowledge which would include "there is no hope of us producing a profitable product in the long term, so let's sell up and close down now." The consequent sudden appearance of bankrupt stock and empty buildings all over  the world would cause quite an economic stir.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

It is important to have someone to blame when the decision turns out to be wrong.

That's not how a good organization works. What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

"there is no hope of us producing a profitable product in the long term, so let's sell up and close down now."

There's nothing stopping you from changing your products to something else which are more demanded when they are getting saturated.  In investment of technology, profits are usually made by riding the S curve.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

https://www.syfy.com/syfy-wire/ray-kurzweil-predicts-human-immortality-by-2030

The technological singularity, for the curious, is the idea that technology will reach a point where it becomes self-advancing and extends beyond what humans are innately capable of. When and if that happens, the nature of our reality could be so fundamentally changed that it’s impossible to know what it might look like on the other side. Futurists commonly imagine scenarios in which humans and our technology merge to create something wholly new.

The truth about Kurzweil’s prediction isn’t quite as dramatic as “immortality in seven years” makes it sound. Which isn’t to say it isn’t a bold claim. It is. But Kurzweil isn’t suggesting that seven years from now you’ll be able to pick up a magic pill from the pharmacy that makes you immortal. One day you’re dying, the next day you’re not. Instead, he predicts an increase in life expectancy that outpaces aging. In essence, advancing medical technology will add more than a year of life expectancy for every year you live.

It's less that you’re going to live forever and more like you’re racing toward death, but death is running away faster. It’s the YouTube video buffering model of living forever. Everything is fine as long as you don’t hit a bad patch of lag. In reference to living forever, Kurzweil said in a 2013 interview with The New York Times, “My plan is to stick around. We’ll get to a point about 15 years from now where we’re adding more than a year every year to your life expectancy.”

This line of thinking makes a certain amount of sense. Life expectancy does tend to go up over time, though there is some wiggle room depending on demographic. Importantly, life expectancy has always increased significantly slower than a person ages. For that to change would require a fundamental change in the nature of our reality, indeed.

Try to stay alive before then.

[alancalverd]

from: alancalverd on 11/04/2023 21:42:18
It is important to have someone to blame when the decision turns out to be wrong.

That's not how a good organization works. What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.

The root cause is either a human decision or a mechanical failure. But the mechanism was designed, operated, maintained and abused by humans:

[alancalverd]

There's nothing stopping you from changing your products

Apart from the basic M's of industry: men, money, machines and materials. And time is never on  your side.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The root cause is either a human decision or a mechanical failure. But the mechanism was designed, operated, maintained and abused by humans:

Standard procedures and work instructions are meant to minimize human errors.
Moralities and laws are meant to minimize human abuses.

[alancalverd]

Standard procedures and work instructions are meant to minimize human errors.
Moralities and laws are meant to minimize human abuses.

Performance rarely meets intentions.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Biological Immortality by 2030: Social & Economic Implications + Some Predictions!

The video is thought provoking, especially when it's in the realms of possibility in not so distant future.

IMO, senescence was necessary in evolutionary process because biological improvements required rebuilding of individuals from single cell. The generational succession would only be possible if the younger ones can compete with the older ones. Without the handicap of degenerative diseases, the older generations would be more likely to win due to more experience and well developed body plan. Thus genetic improvement and adaptation to changing environment would be virtually impossible.

[alancalverd]

What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.

Just seen a good program about Detroit, particularly the Packard factory which expanded hugely in the 1940s to produce Merlin engines, and then the war stopped but car design had moved on and nobody wanted large in-line piston aero engines. Not sure how you could prevent that sort of thing happening again.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

What's more important is to identify the root cause, contributing causes, and how to prevent similar things from happening again in the future.

Just seen a good program about Detroit, particularly the Packard factory which expanded hugely in the 1940s to produce Merlin engines, and then the war stopped but car design had moved on and nobody wanted large in-line piston aero engines. Not sure how you could prevent that sort of thing happening again.

A better market research.