[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Avoiding AI Dystopia: Yuval Noah Harari and Aza Raskin

For the launch of his new book 'Nexus', historian, author and ‪@Sapienship_Lab‬ co-founder Yuval Noah Harari speaks with Aza Raskin, co-founder of ‪@CenterforHumaneTechnology‬
about the critical turning point we have reached in the age of AI. In a discussion moderated by Bloomberg News' Shirin Ghaffary, they explore the historical struggles that emerge from new technology, humanity?s AI mistakes so far, and the immediate steps lawmakers can take to steer us towards a non-dystopian future.

Filmed at the Commonwealth Club World Affairs of California on October 3, 2024.

A lot of relatable information packed in the conversation. Highly recommended to watch.

[alancalverd]

The prospect of being happy and healthy will also change.

The only legitimate judge of health and happiness is the individual whose condition is under discussion.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The prospect of being happy and healthy will also change.

The only legitimate judge of health and happiness is the individual whose condition is under discussion.

How they think about their own health and happiness will also change. It's closely related to their expectations for the improvements on medicine and medical procedures to improve their health. Someone who has given up on their life might change their mind after learning about the latest progress in STEM.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Avoiding AI Dystopia: Yuval Noah Harari and Aza Raskin

One of the funniest moments here is when people use AI to simply write and read a letter that says "no".

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Someday an expert can say that the world can only sustain  1 billion people. Some other say that the limit is 10 billions, while some other say it's 20 billions. Some claim that with a correct investments in STEM, it can be increased to 100 billions. First of all, how can we verify, or falsify those claims?
Let's say we already have the correct figure on the population limit, what's the actual population should we aim for? How should it be achieved?

[alancalverd]

I (and many others) started with an estimate of the power required (a) to sustain a human life and (b) to give that human an aspirational standard of living.   

(a) is about 115 W.  Taking the UK today as a reasonable place to live, (b) is about 5 kW.

The efficiency of photosynthetic conversion to the edible parts of plants is about 0.3%, so each human needs at least 38.5 kW of sunlight to grow food - 10 times as much if he eats meat.

Let's go for a vegetarian diet plus a bit of seafood.

The only sustainable energy input (let's assume 10 billion years = "sustainable") is sunlight, so we need 45 kW per capita.

Solar input = 150 W/m² averaged over the planet so we need 300 square meters per capita devoted entirely to the production of food and motive power. 

With the present population that would be 10% of the surface area of Great Britain if we had average insolation and 100% collection efficiency. But we don't. The collection efficiency of solar panels or windmills is about 15% and the average insolation is around 25 W/m².

It is left as an exercise to the reader to calculate the sustainable population of the UK mainland. Whilst the population density of Ireland and the small islands is lower, so is the solar input, so you could use the figure for the entire British Isles.

Then having determined the target number, we just limit reproduction to one child per female until we reach it. My guess is about 100 years. The zero-cost, do-nothing solution is always best.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

The zero-cost, do-nothing solution is always best.

It's indeed the most efficient solution. But if it's not effective, it doesn't count.
Being conscious is to struggle against entropy. It's optional, so you can choose to be unconscious anytime you like.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

https://scitechdaily.com/mit-scientists-shed-new-light-on-the-critical-brain-connections-that-define-consciousness/

A new study provides further evidence that consciousness depends on communication between the brain?s sensory and cognitive regions in the cortex.
Our brains are constantly making predictions about our surroundings, enabling us to focus on and respond to unexpected events. A recent study explores how this predictive process functions during consciousness and how it changes under general anesthesia. The findings support the idea that conscious thought relies on synchronized communication between basic sensory areas and higher-order cognitive regions of the brain, facilitated by brain rhythms in specific frequency bands.

Previously, members of the research team at The Picower Institute for Learning and Memory at MIT and at Vanderbilt University had described how brain rhythms enable the brain to remain prepared to attend to surprises. Cognition-oriented brain regions (generally at the front of the brain), use relatively low-frequency alpha and beta rhythms to suppress processing by sensory regions (generally toward the back of the brain) of stimuli that have become familiar and mundane in the environment (e.g. your co-worker?s music). When sensory regions detect a surprise (e.g. the office fire alarm), they use faster frequency gamma rhythms to tell the higher regions about it and the higher regions process that at gamma frequencies to decide what to do (e.g. exit the building).

Anesthesia?s Impact on Brain Communication
The new results published Oct. 7 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, show that when animals were under propofol-induced general anesthesia, a sensory region retained the capacity to detect simple surprises but communication with a higher cognitive region toward the front of the brain was lost, making that region unable to engage in its ?top-down? regulation of the activity of the sensory region and keeping it oblivious to simple and more complex surprises alike.

?What we are doing here speaks to the nature of consciousness,? said co-senior author Earl K. Miller, Picower Professor in The Picower Institute for Learning and Memory and MIT?s Department of Brain and Cognitive Sciences. ?Propofol general anesthesia deactivates the top-down processes that underlie cognition. It essentially disconnects communication between the front and back halves of the brain.?

[alancalverd]

It's indeed the most efficient solution. But if it's not effective, it doesn't count.

In my book, giving your descendants an indefinitely sustainable standard of living that its better than your own counts as an effective solution to some of humanity's problems. All they have to do is prevent parasites from ruining it.

Being conscious is to struggle against entropy.

That's a partial definition of being alive - homeostasis. But you can't avoid creating entropy around you.

ΔS > 0, always and everywhere. But those things that you consider lacking in consicousness (rocks, dead animals) create less entropy per unit time than living beings.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

All they have to do is prevent parasites from ruining it.

It can't be achieved by doing nothing.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

ΔS > 0, always and everywhere. But those things that you consider lacking in consicousness (rocks, dead animals) create less entropy per unit time than living beings.

Entropy can decrease in some places, although it will increase in some other places. The universe has effectively infinite other places.

[alancalverd]

It can't be achieved by doing nothing.

In my experience, making babies involves doing something - indeed quite a lot in the case of one partner. So not making babies requires doing nothing. What can possibly be simpler?

Once the population begins to decrease, market forces will modify the way we do everyday business and distribute resources. With less competition, this will surely involve less, not more, effort than at present. Only the parasites will suffer, but their suffering is predictable and can be enforced by prior legislation.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

David Shapiro - Post AGI Economics - Future proof your career and economy - Mindblowers Podcast

00:00 Coming up - Highlights
01:05 The fear of post AGI economics
08:15 AGI economics timeline
16:30 The lack of action from governments
25:20 Top 3 advice to future proof career and economy
28:40 Do people need to sacrifice in preparation for AGI?
43:30 Humans may become the luxury good

Join us for an enlightening episode of the Mindblowers Podcast, where host and keynote speaker Daniel Kafer interviews AI expert David Shapiro. Together, they delve into how artificial intelligence and robotics are transforming industries, impacting jobs, and reshaping society. In this thought-provoking conversation, they explore the imminent "automation cliff," a point where AI and robots become better, faster, and cheaper than humans at virtually all tasks.

David discusses the rapid advancement of AI and its ability to take over tasks that were once exclusively human. They examine the sectors most vulnerable to automation, such as call center operations and computer-based occupations, highlighting the reality that many people are already losing their jobs to AI. The conversation addresses the concerns of those whose jobs involve sitting in front of a computer and the professions that are likely to endure despite technological advancements.

They also explore generational shifts in work attitudes, particularly the perception that Gen Z is less inclined towards traditional work structures. David offers insights into how increased longevity might strain government support systems and why the government may not be prepared to take care of an aging population. He predicts that significant impacts from AI and robotics will become evident in the next 5-10 years, emphasizing that change, while often perceived as a threat, can also be an opportunity.

For those fearful of automation, David provides practical advice on adapting to an automated future. He shares his personal perspective on embracing AI, even expressing a desire to lose his job to AI to focus on what he truly enjoys?a concept he refers to as the "Meaning Economy." This shift emphasizes pursuing passion-driven careers that provide personal fulfillment beyond financial gain.

The discussion delves into how technology is inherently deflationary, leading to cost reductions in various sectors. They touch on examples like AI-generated artwork being preferred over human art and robots potentially making houses 30-50% cheaper. David introduces the intriguing idea of human interaction becoming a luxury good, where personalized human services may become premium offerings in a world dominated by AI. From robot sommeliers to our innate preference for in-person interactions, they examine the enduring importance of human connection in the digital age.

This interview is a must-watch for anyone interested in the future of work, economics, and society in the age of AI. David Shapiro's insights offer valuable guidance on how to navigate the rapidly changing landscape brought about by technological advancements.

Key Themes:
The Imminent Automation Cliff: Understanding how close we are to a significant shift in the labor market due to automation.
Adapting to Change: Strategies for individuals and businesses to stay relevant.
Economic Implications: How deflation and cost reductions will affect the global economy.
The Meaning Economy: Focusing on work that brings personal satisfaction and cannot be easily automated.
Human Connection: The increasing value of human interactions in a world dominated by AI.
About David Shapiro:
David Shapiro is a renowned expert in artificial intelligence and post-labor economics. His insights help us navigate the complex landscape of automation, offering guidance on how to prepare for a future where AI plays a central role in daily life.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

In my experience, making babies involves doing something - indeed quite a lot in the case of one partner. So not making babies requires doing nothing. What can possibly be simpler?

Once the population begins to decrease, market forces will modify the way we do everyday business and distribute resources. With less competition, this will surely involve less, not more, effort than at present. Only the parasites will suffer, but their suffering is predictable and can be enforced by prior legislation.

By doing nothing, the population begins to decrease toward zero.

[alancalverd]

And when I reduce the engine power, the plane descends towards the ground.  The difference between an idiot and a pilot is to reapply cruise power when you get to the desired altitude.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

And when I reduce the engine power, the plane descends towards the ground.  The difference between an idiot and a pilot is to reapply cruise power when you get to the desired altitude.

How does he know the desired altitude?

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

David Shapiro - Post AGI Economics - Future proof your career and economy - Mindblowers Podcast

Meanwhile, Nobel Prize for economy has been awarded.

"Inclusive institutions are good for long-run growth and prosperity." Economic sciences prize 2024

Immediately following the announcement, Professor Jan Teorell, member of the Committee for the Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel, was interviewed by freelance journalist Sharon J?ma about the 2024 prize in economic sciences.

The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2024 to Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James A. Robinson ?for studies of how institutions are formed and affect prosperity?.

How long will it still be relevant in the post AGI economy?

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Nobel-winning economist Simon Johnson on what causes prosperity gaps between nations

The Nobel Prize in economics was awarded Monday to a trio of economists who have published research that looks at what accounts for inequality between countries and how the role of institutions, government and colonialism affected prosperity generations later. One of the winners, Simon Johnson, joined Geoff Bennett to discuss the award and some of these findings.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

How to Actually Win the Nobel Prize in Economics

Every year, the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences awards the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. This year, Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson won. What does their prize tell us about the future of economics?

[alancalverd]

The university was in dire financial straits and decided to close all the departments with expensive machinery: engineering, physics, chemistry, medicine.... but saved mathematics and economics, who only used pencils and erasers.

A year later, they cut mathematics.

The head of department asked the bursar "Why have you saved economics? The use as many pencils as we do."

"They don't use erasers."