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  4. What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
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What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?

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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« on: 11/01/2018 10:38:30 »
There was an Epidemia in Gallia at 580 year, described by Gregory de Tour:

"A very grievous plague followed these prodigies for while the kings were quarreling and again preparing for civil war, dysentery seized upon nearly the whole of the Gauls. The sufferers had a high feverh with vomiting and excessive pain in the kidneys; the head and neck were heavy. Their expectorations were of a saffron color or at least green. It was asserted by many that it was a secret poison. The common people called it internal pimples and this is not incredible, seeing that when cupping glasses were placed on the shoulders or legs mattery places formed and broke and the corrupted blood ran out and many were cured. Moreover herbs that are used to cure poisons were drunk and helped a good many. This sickness began in the month of August and seized upon the little ones and laid them on their beds. We lost dear sweet children whom we nursed on our knees or carried in our arms and nourished with attentive care, feeding them with our own hand. But wiping away our tears we say with the blessed Job: "The Lord has given; the Lord has taken away; the Lord's will has been done. Blessed be his name through the ages."

One of historians said, that it was Anthrax. I very doubt in it. What is your opinion - what was infection agent of it?
« Last Edit: 11/01/2018 10:49:20 by chris »
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #1 on: 11/01/2018 11:31:10 »
Original Latin text:
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Offline wolfekeeper

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #2 on: 14/01/2018 04:59:08 »
Sounds like a bad influenza maybe.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #3 on: 14/01/2018 08:07:21 »
Quote from: wolfekeeper on 14/01/2018 04:59:08
Sounds like a bad influenza maybe.
Influenza at August?
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #4 on: 14/01/2018 10:34:26 »
It's entirely possible that several  diseases were running  riot at the same time.
They said " herbs that are used to cure poisons were drunk and helped a good many. " but realistically, there are no herbs that reliably treat poisoning, so you can't draw any conclusion from that.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #5 on: 14/01/2018 11:15:49 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 14/01/2018 10:34:26
It's entirely possible that several  diseases were running  riot at the same time.
They said " herbs that are used to cure poisons were drunk and helped a good many. " but realistically, there are no herbs that reliably treat poisoning, so you can't draw any conclusion from that.
I don't know what herbs exactly were used there, but usually it were:
Hypericum (activator of CYP-enzimes), Melissa officinalis (anti-spastic), Chamaemelon romana, Achilléa, Plantago (Anti-hemorrhagic and antiseptic), Inula (antiseptic and analgetic).
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #6 on: 14/01/2018 13:49:45 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 14/01/2018 11:15:49
Quote from: Bored chemist on 14/01/2018 10:34:26
It's entirely possible that several  diseases were running  riot at the same time.
They said " herbs that are used to cure poisons were drunk and helped a good many. " but realistically, there are no herbs that reliably treat poisoning, so you can't draw any conclusion from that.
I don't know what herbs exactly were used there, but usually it were:
Hypericum (activator of CYP-enzimes), Melissa officinalis (anti-spastic), Chamaemelon romana, Achilléa, Plantago (Anti-hemorrhagic and antiseptic), Inula (antiseptic and analgetic).
Yes, but they are of (at best) very limited efficacy.
Most of the "healing" attributed to the herbs was actually the body's defences- notably the liver in terms of destroying toxins) and the placebo effect.
So, what they are saying is
" a bunch of herbs that were marginal in terms of treating toxicity were also marginal in therms of this plague".
You can't read a lot into that in terms of diagnosis.

If they had said "there was a plague of aching swollen feet, and Autumn Crocus did wonders for it then it would be reasonable to deduce that they might have had a plague of gout. but the talk of "herbs" is just too non-specific.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #7 on: 14/01/2018 14:22:46 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 14/01/2018 13:49:45
[quote author=YarSmirnov
So, what they are saying is
" a bunch of herbs that were marginal in terms of treating toxicity were also marginal in therms of this plague".
You can't read a lot into that in terms of diagnosis.
I think, we can read it as argument "contra" for versions of the Justinian Plague and Anthrax.

Quote
If they had said "there was a plague of aching swollen feet, and Autumn Crocus did wonders for it then it would be reasonable to deduce that they might have had a plague of gout. but the talk of "herbs" is just too non-specific.
Sure. But if they had so, there was no need in the discussion. Only what we can say that there was less or more effective herbal treatment of this disease, so it was not intestinal form of Anthrax.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #8 on: 14/01/2018 14:46:18 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 14/01/2018 14:22:46
I think, we can read it as argument "contra" for versions of the Justinian Plague and Anthrax.
I don't (though I don't think it was anthrax)
If the herbs really do  little or nothing for the conditions they are "prescribed" for, but people think they do then those same people will think the herbs helped whatever the plague is- whether they help or not.
At the risk of starting an entirely different argument, it's like saying
"We offered the prayers we use for  poisoning, and the patients got better so it must have been poison".

(and, just to avoid the pointless argument- it doesn't matter if God intercedes or not in this case)
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #9 on: 14/01/2018 16:13:10 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 14/01/2018 14:46:18
I don't (though I don't think it was anthrax)
Ok.

Quote
If the herbs really do  little or nothing for the conditions they are "prescribed" for, but people think they do then those same people will think the herbs helped whatever the plague is- whether they help or not.
At the risk of starting an entirely different argument, it's like saying
"We offered the prayers we use for  poisoning, and the patients got better so it must have been poison".
Actually many Medieval sources wrote that neither herbs nor prayers were effective against Anthrax or the Plague.
Another moment is that some herbs (like Antropa Belladonna) can be very effective against poisoning with organophosphorus compound's (like Vx-gases) or amatoxins from "death cap".

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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #10 on: 14/01/2018 16:55:55 »
There's little support for most herbs as a remedy for anything and as far as I understand it, no reason to think belladonna will help you if you eat death caps.
There are some specific cases- belladonna might be of use against something. like  this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physostigma_venenosum
But the idea of a plant that's "generally good against poisons" doesn't make much sense- not even via activation of the cytochrome enzymes because those tend to be activated by most poisons anyway.

Unfortunately, I don't think the written records from the time are going to tell us what this contagion was.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #11 on: 14/01/2018 17:24:45 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 14/01/2018 16:55:55
There's little support for most herbs as a remedy for anything and as far as I understand it, no reason to think belladonna will help you if you eat death caps.

Athropa Belladonna contains athropin and athropin is antidote against Organophosphorus compaunds and Amatoxins from "death cap".

Quote
But the idea of a plant that's "generally good against poisons" doesn't make much sense- not even via activation of the cytochrome enzymes because those tend to be activated by most poisons anyway.

Of course, it's depends from kind of poison. But non-specific detoxic therapy also can be provided (when you have nothing better).

Quote
Unfortunately, I don't think the written records from the time are going to tell us what this contagion was.
May be. May be not. Let's wait for other opinions. Anyway - thanks for interesting discussion.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #12 on: 14/01/2018 20:32:51 »
There was a time when  belladonna- or more reliably, atropine was suggested as an antidote to fly agaric (Amanita muscaria) poisoning.
However
(1) it contains a bunch of other toxins rather than Amatoxins an
(2) it's no longer recommended therapy for fly agaric.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amanita_muscaria#Treatment

There is a suggestion that milk thistle might work against death cap poisoning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Amatoxin#Treatment
but I suspect that's just "we are desperate- try anything- it can't do any harm".
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Offline wolfekeeper

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #13 on: 14/01/2018 22:49:33 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 14/01/2018 08:07:21
Quote from: wolfekeeper on 14/01/2018 04:59:08
Sounds like a bad influenza maybe.
Influenza at August?
Actually, yes, although northern countries like Europe or southern countries like Australia have flu seasons which correspond to winter, in the tropics, where they don't really have winter, flu tends to circulate year around.

So alas! You can't escape flu by simply going somewhere hot and sunny!

Influenza doesn't rigidly bother with a fixed schedule, and nobody knows why it usually follows these schedules.

Incidentally, i shouldn't necessarily get too hung up about the 'herbs were given'. It's fantastically unlikely that they did proper double blind tests and it's easy to get false positives on thinking something worked.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #14 on: 15/01/2018 10:50:22 »
Quote from: wolfekeeper on 14/01/2018 22:49:33

Actually, yes, although northern countries like Europe or southern countries like Australia have flu seasons which correspond to winter, in the tropics, where they don't really have winter, flu tends to circulate year around.
Gallia is not tropical country.
Quote
So alas! You can't escape flu by simply going somewhere hot and sunny!
But we can escape flu with low density of population and it's low mobility. As it was in Medieval times. BTW, when was first recorded epidemia of the flu?
Quote
Incidentally, i shouldn't necessarily get too hung up about the 'herbs were given'. It's fantastically unlikely that they did proper double blind tests and it's easy to get false positives on thinking something worked.
There are no need in proper double blind test in case of highly effective or highly ineffective treatment.
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Offline Colin2B

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #15 on: 15/01/2018 14:27:01 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 15/01/2018 10:50:22
But we can escape flu with low density of population and it's low mobility. As it was in Medieval times.
Population density in Medieval times was low on an absolute measure, but large areas of the country were unoccupied or extremely low density whereas the majority of the population lived in fairly dense hamlets and village communities in extremely insanitary conditions.
There was also much more local and overseas trade than people realise. The Black Death travelled from Asia via the major trade route - silk road - to Europe, albeit slowly.
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Offline Bored chemist

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #16 on: 15/01/2018 20:49:48 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 15/01/2018 10:50:22
There are no need in proper double blind test in case of highly effective or highly ineffective treatment.

You are half right.
A really successful treatment doesn't need double blind testing.
But the world is littered with totally ineffective, or even dangerous,  ones like prayer, homeopathy blood letting an so on.

The fact is that the sick people will have been treated with "the usual herbs", prayer, Aunt Elsie's chicken soup (it never fails), Uncle George's "lucky" rabbits foot and anything else they could think of.

The pathogen will have remained blissfully unaware of, and unaffected by, all of these.

Trying to work out what that pathogen was on the basis of looking at what ineffectual treatments were given to the lucky ones whose immune system actually killed the bug is just not science.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #17 on: 15/01/2018 21:34:17 »
Quote from: Bored chemist on 15/01/2018 20:49:48
Trying to work out what that pathogen was on the basis of looking at what ineffectual treatments were given to the lucky ones whose immune system actually killed the bug is just not science.
We know, that it was not anything 100% deadly. For example, it was not intestinal form of the Anthrax, because even with a good modern antibiotics and other drugs death rate is more than 50%. Without effective treatment (and there was no effective anti-Anthrax treatment in the Medieval times) death rate was near 100%.
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Offline wolfekeeper

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #18 on: 15/01/2018 22:44:17 »
Quote from: YarSmirnov on 15/01/2018 10:50:22
There are no need in proper double blind test in case of highly effective or highly ineffective treatment.
That's why you can't buy homeopathic treatments in any pharmacy, and people don't swear by accupuncture, reflexology, and why leaches or bleeding was never used in medieval times for entirely inappropriate conditions.

Oh.. wait.
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Offline YarSmirnov (OP)

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Re: What pathogen could have caused the epidemic in Gallia in 580?
« Reply #19 on: 16/01/2018 03:31:28 »
Quote from: wolfekeeper on 15/01/2018 22:44:17
That's why you can't buy homeopathic treatments in any pharmacy, and people don't swear by accupuncture, reflexology, and why leaches or bleeding was never used in medieval times for entirely inappropriate conditions.
Sometimes bleeding helps, sometimes bleeding kills. To understand effecience of bleeding we need medical research.
But opium always kill pain, tea almost always stimulate activity. It is something that we can feel by our self's.
Bleeding, tea, prayer, opium, "decoctum corticis Quercus" - all of this is absolutely ineffective against deep wounds of abdomen, plague, Anthrax or leprosy. And it was also well known in Medieval times.
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