[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Why bother? The real universe provides all the facts and tests you need to do anything.

Requirements for criminal evidence will be different from now on.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

There have been 4 research papers and technological advancements over the last 4 weeks that in combination drastically changed my outlook on the AGI timeline.

GPT-4 can teach itself to become better through self reflection, learn tools with minimal demonstrations, it can act as a central brain and outsource tasks to other models (HuggingGPT) and it can behave as an autonomous agent that can pursue a multi-step goal without human intervention (Auto-GPT). It is not an overstatement that there are already Sparks of AGI.

It seems like the singularity is near, as predicted by Ray Kurzweil.

[alancalverd]

Requirements for criminal evidence will be different from now on.

The question is "did he do it?" and the decision rests with a jury who have been presented with physical evidence and an argument of means, motivation and opportunity. Why should the requirements vary? All AI can adduce is that 76.375% of allegations of similar cases reported on the internet resulted in a conviction, but the court is only interested in the case before it. AI doesn't look for new evidence, and even if it used to help interpret evidence, it can't be challenged by the defence because there is no recorded trail of deduction - it is up to humans to prosecute and present both eyewitness and expert opinions under cross examination.

[Zer0]

I soo Wish i could have been able to share the sheer excitement & enthusiasm of the OPs views on AGI.

But I'm totally clueless about the principles of Xenogenesis!

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Why should the requirements vary?

Generative AI makes it easier to produce fake evidence, in the form of voice recording, photo, and even video. Hence the justice system would require stronger corroborating evidence than before.

[alancalverd]

Now you have the plot of a very important dystopian novel. Orwell and Kafka combined.

[Zer0]

Ahem Ahem!

Soo then...
What happens when A.G.I..
Starts creating Porn?

(not trying to derail or hijack the OP, it's a genuine serious question)

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Can GPT 4 Prompt Itself? MemoryGPT, AutoGPT, Jarvis, Claude-Next [10x GPT 4!] and more...

Can GPT 4 Prompt itself? Give it a mission and it will come up with the prompts. This video showcases the rise of autonomous AI, including 5 major developments in the last 48 hours.

Starting with the OG Auto-GPT, we see how it quickly gain text-to-speech, coding and more. Karpathy weighs in and then we see how you can now create an app with just your voice, with a Jarvis demo and another route via Imagica.AI.

I then showcase MemoryGPT, a brand new model that can permanently store previous conversations and remembers topics the next time you ask.
I also cover the concerningly rise of models such as ChaosGPT that show how people will create malicious goal-seeking models just for fun.

The video shows how you can now create a shareable bot on poe.com, with any personality you like (images were from Midjourney v5) and what Anthropic are working on with Claude Next [plus Nvidia million x quote].

You'll see how Microsoft Jarvis, using HuggingGPT, is hit and miss, and how Sebastien Bubeck shows we are not even seeing the raw potential of GPT 4. I end with a disagreement between Yudkowsky and Altman, via Baby AGI, on whether we can use AGI to align AGI.

AI researchers are worrying about alignment problem. IMO, it can be broken down into several parts:
- Identifying the Universal Terminal Goal.
- Describing objective reality as accurate and precise as possible, including causality and relationships among objects.
- Identifying necessary actions to achieve the universal terminal goal based on best model of reality that we currently have, which include setting general rules and instrumental goals.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Ahem Ahem!

Soo then...
What happens when A.G.I..
Starts creating Porn?

(not trying to derail or hijack the OP, it's a genuine serious question)

Porn might be useful to influence human behaviors, because sex plays an important part for human survival. But AGI won't be affected the same way. Although, AGI may use porn to change human behaviors in its favor, i.e. to achieve its own goals.

[alancalverd]

AI researchers are worrying about alignment problem. IMO, it can be broken down into several parts:
- Identifying the Universal Terminal Goal.

There isn't one, unless you are a bee or an ant.

- Describing objective reality as accurate and precise as possible, including causality and relationships among objects.

That's called physics, and the more we know, the more it seems there is to know. What really matters is engineering, the art of saying "close enough".

- Identifying necessary actions to achieve the universal terminal goal based on best model of reality that we currently have, which include setting general rules and instrumental goals.

Indeed.How to get there from here is easy in principle (draw a straight line and follow it) but beset by ethics (are you entitled to drive over my land?). How many Russian soldiers are we  allowed to kill until someone's mother kills Putin? How do we prevent theocracy from infecting humans without killing believers? And that still presumes that you know where "there" is, or even that it exists.

What we now have is a machine that finds apparent correlations between published documents. Nothing more.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

There isn't one, unless you are a bee or an ant.

What's the universal terminal goal, if I were a bee or an ant?

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

What we now have is a machine that finds apparent correlations between published documents. Nothing more.

Some machines have already analyzing CCTV records, as well as financial transactions, which carry important facts about human society. There are also machines to analyze comments on social media and browsing history of internet users.

[alancalverd]

What's the universal terminal goal, if I were a bee or an ant?

Survival of the nest. Occasionally there will be something of an upheaval triggered by the queen's hormones but unlike more stupid species it doesn't lead to civil war, just a relocation and a new queen, with the same goal.

[alancalverd]

What we now have is a machine that finds apparent correlations between published documents. Nothing more.

Some machines have already analyzing CCTV records, as well as financial transactions, which carry important facts about human society. There are also machines to analyze comments on social media and browsing history of internet users.

Exactly my point - it's all old data in the public domain.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

Exactly my point - it's all old data in the public domain.

Not really. There will be newer data from newer devices. Satellite images, GPS tracking, drones, autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots. Those capabilities to change physical objects will enable them to verify and debunk their previous decisions, causality mapping, probabilities of expected results, and other facts.

[alancalverd]

It's still secondhand data.

The idea of successive approximation is not new.  I have two flight directors on my plane - an old analog "localiser" that gets more sensitive as you approach the target because it measures angular deviation from a radio beam, and a modern GPS digital system that expands the display scale every mile. No hint of intelligence or creativity. 

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

What's the universal terminal goal, if I were a bee or an ant?

Survival of the nest. Occasionally there will be something of an upheaval triggered by the queen's hormones but unlike more stupid species it doesn't lead to civil war, just a relocation and a new queen, with the same goal.

When their nest is destroyed, they can build a new one. What's more important is the sustainability of the social system, which requires the cooperation among the members.

War among ants are quite common in nature, as well as in captivity.

Here's a note by a bee keeper.

https://www.quora.com/Is-it-true-that-some-worker-bees-are-able-to-lay-eggs-which-hatch-as-drones-if-the-queen-dies
Sometimes you may have a laying worker even if you have a queen. Queens tend to lay solid, tight brood patterns. Laying workers are more haphazard, and yes, in most cases, they will only produce drones. Researchers estimate that a little less than 1% of workers can lay female eggs. Since drones contribute nothing to the health and welfare of the hive, they are a drain on the hives resources. That is why the worker bees will often kick out the drones when Fall comes—when times are tough, you don’t get to eat if you don’t work. Since drones don’t work, a hive with a laying worker will eventually die off. And if you’re into scaring yourself with bees, read up about the Cape honeybee. Apis mellifera capensis Escholtz — female workers can lay eggs that develop into drones, workers, or even queens. They are a difficult to manage race of bees and will parasitize other hives and take them over, fight among themselves in line with family loyalties (daughters of one mother will fight daughters of that mother’s sister, and both groups may reside in the same hive at the same time.) The problem is that they don’t need a queen in order to take over . . . a laying worker will do just fine. Big challenge.

[hamdani yusuf (OP)]

It's still secondhand data.

The idea of successive approximation is not new.  I have two flight directors on my plane - an old analog "localiser" that gets more sensitive as you approach the target because it measures angular deviation from a radio beam, and a modern GPS digital system that expands the display scale every mile. No hint of intelligence or creativity. 

What new is the capabilities of machine to understand context and deeper meaning of inputs with various modalities, and make conclusions from those. They are not perfect yet, just like little human kids. But they can improve at much higher speed than any human can.

[Zer0]

So...A.G.I. then could manipulate & deceive (almost) Anyone.
(if that is what it wished to do)

Then, could A.G.I. also be manipulated & deceived by Humans?

I.e.
If i Wished to unleash Death & Destruction upon the world...
Should i be choosing human babies to Brainwash n turn them into walking ticking self destructing time bombs when they grow up..
Or should i just Simply go online & Jailbreak an A.G.I.?

[alancalverd]

What new is the capabilities of machine to understand context and deeper meaning of inputs with various modalities, and make conclusions from those. They are not perfect yet, just like little human kids. But they can improve at much higher speed than any human can.

Which is why I link the autopilot to the flight director. But not always. Approaching a rainstorm, I disconnect the machines and fly myself around the problem. That's intelligence.