[Petrochemicals (OP)]

After listening to Thoma Moore on sky news state that in Italy epidemiologists estimate that the true number of infections is around the 75000 mark, Iran has 23 members of parliament have kopped it, and suspiciously in china the number of new cases are plummeting, it strikes me that the governments are not worried anymore over the outbreak.

[Bored chemist]

it strikes me that the governments are not worried anymore over the outbreak.

How do you define "worried"?
The governments keep posting advice, warnings and information.

[alancalverd]

Amazing that, at your considerable expense, a committee of the great and good sat for a day and came up with exactly what your mum told you to do: stay at home, don't sneeze over other people, and wash your hands.

If only some Chinese mums had told their children not to eat carnivorous mammals, we wouldn't have the problem anyway.

[Colin2B]

If only some Chinese mums had told their children not to eat carnivorous mammals, .......

I though they were bats (to eat them that is)

[RD]

... If only some Chinese mums had told their children not to eat carnivorous mammals, we wouldn't have the problem anyway.

If you're referring to bat-soup, it's fruit-bat soup,
 ( I dunno if that counts as one of your 5-a-day  ).

[Colin2B]

If you're referring to bat-soup, it's fruit-bat soup,
 ( I dunno if that counts as one of your 5-a-day  ).

Depends how much fruit they’ve eaten 

[alancalverd]

The hysteria is quite interesting and probably justified.

I'm looking to arrange a half-day meeting of about 50 people in East Anglia. Present incidence of infection is about 25 cases in a population of 5 million, so there's a 1 in 4000 probability that there will be a carrier (cause) in that group. That may represent an acceptable risk of inconvenience and minor infection of one person, but the likelihood is that a carrier would infect about half the group, so the effect is disproportionate to the cause. At  current levels of lethality, we have a 1 in 4000 probability of causing 2 deaths, so the risk is not acceptable. 

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

... If only some Chinese mums had told their children not to eat carnivorous mammals, we wouldn't have the problem anyway.

If you're referring to bat-soup, it's fruit-bat soup,
 ( I dunno if that counts as one of your 5-a-day  ).

Yeah, just like the dog. I hear they where all fruit dogs too, and the snakes.

My problem is various members of parliament have contracted the virus now, in france italy, now the uk. It seems all together too pervasive at current levels to warrant the fear to the small number of recorded cases. If mps are getting it in the uk that is now an infection rate of about 0.125 percent already in parliament. Meaning the uk has around 60,000 cases at present  by the end of the week possibly 1 million, all over by  sunday. Almost all of the victims have underlying health conditions.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

After listening to Thoma Moore on sky news state that in Italy epidemiologists estimate that the true number of infections is around the 75000 mark, Iran has 23 members of parliament have kopped it, and suspiciously in china the number of new cases are plummeting, it strikes me that the governments are not worried anymore over the outbreak.

To be honest Thomas moore was quoting someone from the WHO who also stated a mortality rate of 1-2%, misrepresented on the news a little i believe.

[RD]

... and the snakes ...

Are there snake viruses which also infect humans ?.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00180-8

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

... and the snakes ...

Are there snake viruses which also infect humans ?.

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00180-8

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

[RD]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

Which apparently sells everything from badgers to wolves, (including snakes).

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Huanan_Seafood_Wholesale_Market

Which apparently sells everything from badgers to wolves, (including snakes).

And koalas too ☺

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

They are coming out of the woodwork now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51847198

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-juventus-confirm-defender-daniele-21678138

In the words of Churchill,

A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.

Somewhere with very diligent tracking has a mortality rate of about 0.5, not great but again this is from the cases identified.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-114-new-cases-of-coronavirus-brings-total-to-7869-idUKKBN20Z05C

Stikes me that this is a bit of a "boy that cries wolf senario", one day it may occour for real, very quick and very fast.

[evan_au]

Everyone wants to shake hands with famous actors and presidents...

[RD]

Everyone wants to shake hands with famous actors...

Except Tom Hanks ... https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51847198

[chiralSPO]

They are coming out of the woodwork now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51847198

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-juventus-confirm-defender-daniele-21678138

In the words of Churchill,

A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.

Somewhere with very diligent tracking has a mortality rate of about 0.5, not great but again this is from the cases identified.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-114-new-cases-of-coronavirus-brings-total-to-7869-idUKKBN20Z05C

Stikes me that this is a bit of a "boy that cries wolf senario", one day it may occour for real, very quick and very fast.

Even if the mortality rate is actually only 0.1%, and if only 1/3 of the people on earth are infected (both conservative estimates), that's still 2.5 millions deaths. That's not a world catastrophe, but it's equivalent to a bad war (for reference, that's about 5x as many as have died in Syria so far). That's also a lower limit that we are, unfortunately, not on track to hit. The mortality rate will rise as hospitals get overwhelmed, and due to delays, obfuscation, and lack of coordination, it is more likely that closer to 2/3 of the world might get it. If the mortality rate gets up to 1% of 5 billion people, that's 50 million dead--on par with the Spanish influenza pandemic 100(ish) years ago...

So people shouldn't panic. But I would not call this "crying wolf" especially since it will take global collective action to limit the fatalities.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

They are coming out of the woodwork now

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-51847198

https://www.mirror.co.uk/sport/football/news/breaking-juventus-confirm-defender-daniele-21678138

In the words of Churchill,

A lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get its pants on.

Somewhere with very diligent tracking has a mortality rate of about 0.5, not great but again this is from the cases identified.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-health-coronavirus-southkorea/south-korea-reports-114-new-cases-of-coronavirus-brings-total-to-7869-idUKKBN20Z05C

Stikes me that this is a bit of a "boy that cries wolf senario", one day it may occour for real, very quick and very fast.

Even if the mortality rate is actually only 0.1%, and if only 1/3 of the people on earth are infected (both conservative estimates), that's still 2.5 millions deaths. That's not a world catastrophe, but it's equivalent to a bad war (for reference, that's about 5x as many as have died in Syria so far). That's also a lower limit that we are, unfortunately, not on track to hit. The mortality rate will rise as hospitals get overwhelmed, and due to delays, obfuscation, and lack of coordination, it is more likely that closer to 2/3 of the world might get it. If the mortality rate gets up to 1% of 5 billion people, that's 50 million dead--on par with the Spanish influenza pandemic 100(ish) years ago...

So people shouldn't panic. But I would not call this "crying wolf" especially since it will take global collective action to limit the fatalities.

Yes that is true, but you and I will reach the end of our lives at some point. Mainly over 70s people with underlying conditions, this is not spanish flu killing 40 million people between the ages of 20 and 60. Swine flu however.(from wikipedia)

The virus was less lethal than previous pandemic strains and kills about 0.01–0.03% of those infected; the 1918 influenza was about one hundred times more lethal and had a case fatality rate of 2–3%.[68] By 14 November 2009, the virus had infected one in six Americans with 200,000 hospitalisations and 10,000 deaths – as many hospitalizations and fewer deaths than in an average flu season overall, but with much higher risk for those under 50. With deaths of 1,100 children and 7,500 adults 18 to 64, these figures "are much higher than in a usual flu season".[69]

At that I would worry, 85 percent beneath the retirement age. That would raise your 0.1 percent to 1 percent

Pneumonia killed 3 million in 2016, many from colds and flu.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epidemiology_of_pneumonia

[d_eizzenheim]

This corona virus has been the talk recently. With articles appearing online here and there. Not to mention, media has made it more troubling than it actually is. While it has affected many, the disease can be prevented by being clean all the time and making sure of your immunity. I have been searching for more ideas about the pandemic and I've gone through this blog post. It may seem I'm promoting or anything, but I was brought to places by this reading. Hope we will all be safe even after this crisis.

[Petrochemicals (OP)]

Amazing that, at your considerable expense, a committee of the great and good sat for a day and came up with exactly what your mum told you to do: stay at home, don't sneeze over other people, and wash your hands.

If only some Chinese mums had told their children not to eat carnivorous mammals, we wouldn't have the problem anyway.

Unfortunately they have gone a bit further than that now. I stand by the hysteria comment, basically if you are over retirement age, take it easy and do not mix too much, wash your hands etc, if under retirement age, dont sneeze on people. It is utterly ridiculous, there is not even any sport to watch other than betting which country will panic next.