[alancalverd]

Agreed. Immediate vaccination of the entire UK population is a desirable objective. So let's do a tactical logistics plan and SITREP.

What we need is a magic money tree; an oven-ready factory; unlimited supplies of raw materials; a thousand refrigerated trucks; ten thousand clinical refrigerators; instant paramedic training of all military personnel; enough car parking and disabled taxis to get everyone to our instantly constructed vaccination centers; software that works; enough police officers to control the traffic and stop the riots; and a few nurses who aren't already dead or working overtime, to supervise the field operation.

What we actually have is a bunch of idiots who think their political popularity is more important than your survival.

What we did have was a rapidly declining case rate in the last two weeks, due to the masks and lockdowns that you say don't work.

What we can expect is a peak of around 100,000 cases per day by mid-January, followed by another 40,000 deaths before Easter.

[Petrochemicals]

Is it ethical for the west to usurp all doses of vaccine whilst vulnerable people in the developing world succumb? A moral not scientific point.

[alancalverd]

It's worth looking at the map on https://worldcoronastatistics.com/ . The majority of countries with more than a few thousand cases are definitely in the "developed" world (with the obvious exception of the USA, with 12.6 million confirmed cases and still in the Stone Age until mid-January). India, with only 9.2 million cases among 3 times the population of the USA, is likely to be one of the major manufacturers of  vaccine, as is Brazil. It's definitely a first-world disease (except in Australia, New Zealand, Norway, Finland and Iceland, where they have competent governments) 

[Petrochemicals]

Italy spain UK and Belgium are still above the USA Sweden in the ratios despite stance. I wonder why.

[alancalverd]

Because their infection curves are ahead of the less-densely-populated countries. From the point of view of the virus there will be a correlation between population density and per capita infection,  and a lag of up to 8 weeks between infection and death. If all these variables are taken into account, the difference between countries can only be ascribed to the preventive measures taken and enforced.

Worldometer has a neat graph of total cases at day N where N = 0 on the first day to exceed 100 cases. This provides a sensible comparator of preventive effectiveness once the disease has actually reached the country. On day 250, 1.9% of the UK population was infected, compared with 3.6% of the US population, 2.8% of Brazil, and 1.7% of Sweden.

My interpretation is that all these countries score fairly equally in terms of governmental incompetence apart from the USA  where the president seems to be actively encouraging the spread of the disease in the face of negligible population density. Compared with Singapore, with less than 1% infected in a much higher population density and much closer to the source, or New Zealand at 0.04%, the West is doing abysmally.

[Petrochemicals]

And yet Spain and France with such a low population density doing badly, but Germeny with the high population doing so well. France has a comparable population to America. Russia with a low population density doing so very very badly and China with the high population density doing so very badly. India with the high population density doing better than Amurica. The argument doesn't stand, you are cherry picking.

America is comparable to Western Europe in age, wealth density and response plan (left by Obama), yet we are doing worse than them? I notice trump failed entirely to mention this in his own defence to the media's and the Democrats harranging of him, almost like he threw the election.

[acsinuk]

The numbers are all suspect as it appears that wherever the test rate is high then the death rate is high and only by comparing with the past years will the true rate appear, as most people will survive a covid19 attack as they get herd immunity.
But level 3 lockdowns should only be considered if 90% of the Nightingale ward beds are occupied. Level 1 should be introduced when 25% of Nightingales are used and level 2 at 50% in my opinion.  This means that everyone should be extra careful to mask and space to stop their local community being effected by these lockdowns by mostly staying at home.

[Bored chemist]

But level 3 lockdowns should only be considered if 90% of the Nightingale ward beds are occupied.

Are you actually an idiot, or just pretending?
The point of a lockdown is to reduce the rate of spread of the disease.
If it is so high that 90% (or even 50%) of the nightingale beds are full (and that's ignoring the question of staffing them) then the following week the wards will very probably be over 100% full.

The whole point is to avoid filling the wards.
So waiting until the wards are full is one of the few decisions that is obviously wrong.
"

everyone should be extra careful to mask and space to stop their local community being effected by these lockdowns by mostly staying at home.

"
So, people should lock themselves down (staying at home etc)  to avoid a lockdown...

Seriously, while it's amusing in a way to watch you channeling the spirit of Grandpa Simpson, there's a risk that someone might take your ideas seriously. Please stop doing it.

[alancalverd]

France has a comparable population to America.

if you think 65 = 300, maybe.

[alancalverd]

America is comparable to Western Europe in age, wealth density and response plan (left by Obama), yet we are doing worse than them?

Only if you think that 1.9% of the UK, or 1.7% of the entire European  population being infected is "worse" than 3.6%.

But don't let the facts get in the way of a healthy prejudice. Der Fuhrer Trumpf clearly won the presidential election because he maketh the sun to rise. On your planet, at least.   

[Bored chemist]

I notice trump failed entirely to mention this in his own defence

You noticed that Trump didn't say "I have really handled the pandemic badly- so much so that we are leading the Western world in cases per capita*" in his defence.

Were you talking about an insanity defence?

* except Belgium for some reason...

[alancalverd]

, as most people will survive a covid19 attack as they get herd immunity.

Individuals do not get herd immunity, they confer immunity on the herd by dying or surviving.

A herd is considered immune when at least 80% of the survivors have been infected. At that stage the herd is likely to reproduce at a sufficient rate to offset the fatality rate of the residual endemic. In the case of COVID  the figure may turn out to be over 90% due to the high infectivity of asymptomatic carriers.

At present we are below 2%,but we could approach herd immunity in the next 2 years if you are prepared to slaughter anyone with symptoms. It works for cattle, after all.

[Bored chemist]

France has a comparable population to America.

if you think 65 = 300, maybe.

He may be thinking in terms of demographics.
In which case, looking at this dfata
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_age_structure
 he thinks  that
the USA with 18.9% "kids", 65.7% "adults"  and 15.4% "elderly"
is the same as
18.2%, 62.2% 19.7%

He's still wrong, but less catastrophically.

[alancalverd]

So, people should lock themselves down (staying at home etc)  to avoid a lockdown...

Reminds me of the glory days of Civil Defence. I attended a wonderful "transition to war" seminar where the local chief constable explained his orders for the two weeks before the balloon went up. Essentially, to release all minor criminals (i.e. everyone from shoplifters to murderers) and imprison those on his list of potential fifth columnists. Apparently, Vietnam changed the rules of conflict, so "bombing the village to save it" was added to the playbook, and turning the UK into a police state to prevent it becoming a police state was part of our government's policy.

At the time I was simultaneously chairman of the local Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament and county scientific adviser to Civil Defence. The other scientific adviser, a Polish war hero and industrial chemist, asked who was on the list of dangerous undesirables. "Left-wingers and anyone with a foreign name"  was the straight-faced reply. The audience burst into hysterical  laughter.

[alancalverd]

He may be thinking in terms of demographics.

Or, taking regard of the original context of the phrase, population density

France: 123/km²

USA: 34/km²

Near enough for a politician, perhaps.

[Petrochemicals]

He may be thinking in terms of demographics.

Or, taking regard of the original context of the phrase, population density

France: 123/km²

USA: 34/km²

Near enough for a politician, perhaps.

This is pedantic I think, considering the USA has large deserts hot and cold sparcely populated colder northern regions.  If only I had been specific you could have jumped all over it. In the areas that are easily habitable , the polulation is very similar to the arrangement of France. We have been over this with swedish population density versus area of dwelling have we not? As I remember I won and you said sorry to being a big girly man  and I granted you a magnanimous parden?

Taking the original comment, why is sweeden so much better than uk

[acsinuk]

The point is lockdown is a failure, a totally failed protocol that is not working.  The NHS advisors are not Gods but are pretending to be; by pushing politicians into over the top draconian restrictions of our human rights of free choice.  We are not idiots  If we feel at risk then we can choose to self isolate. By all means mask up, and space out by consideration for our neighbours but do not forcefully close shops or entertainment/hospitality venues.  It is physiologically damaging to us and economic suicide

[alancalverd]

I don't feel in the least psychologically damaged.

Half the problem is that "we", i.e. everyone else, are idiots. Whenever restrictions are eased, more people get infected.

The other half of the problem is that "they" (Mr Johnson's puppeteers) are ignorant cowards who dare not admit that a partial lockdown just delays the inevitable.  You can't negotiate with a virus. Had the Powers that Be taken properly draconian measures in March, the UK would be free from COVID by now, with maybe half a dozen deaths, a few hundred survivors, and no restrictions on anything. But politicians cannot apologise or reverse their policies for fear of ridicule.

The administrative idiocy of dividing two small islands into seven countries simply multiplies the idiocy by breeding free-range politicians instead of eliminating that scourge.

The scientific advice has been absolutely consistent. There is no cure and no prevention other than quarantine.

[alancalverd]

The point is lockdown is a failure, a totally failed protocol that is not working.

Except, as revealed on tonight's news, that it is.  Or was. Having reduced R to below 1, They are now going to take the lid off again so we can all get sick in time for Santa.

[Bored chemist]

The point is lockdown is a failure

Except that, shortly after they bring it in, the number of cases starts to fall.