[Petrochemicals]

What is the basis of your estimate? It's a bit suspicious because it matches the COVID curve so closely: early death due to delayed treatment is likely to lag a couple of weeks behind the cause of the delay.

The graph is from the ONS, the basis being pressure on services, no heart treatments, no stroke treatments ambulance tie ups due to hospital allocation of staff. As serious corona cases decline so treatments for heart attacks increace I suspect that this 50 percent of the corona toll is likely to increase over the next few years. I think the opening up of the nightingales would segment the infected away from services for treatments listed above. I am inclined to believe that the ons and doctors would not be registering mortalities without due consideration.

[acsinuk]

I repeat My only comment is that we were told about this vaccine in March so why the delay. 40,000 people have die in UK just because the testing was following some legalistic H&S procedure!!!! 
Of course the vaccine must be checked out but not by young volunteers as lawyers can pretend they were denied the opportunity of becoming the next US president.  Volunteers should all be 80+ years and healthy and make a written statement in front of a doctor and a relative that they wish to volunteer to test the vaccine. |No  problem of lawyers trying to claim lost opportunities as they are one foot in the grave anyway and we should all thank them so much for risking their lives for the common good of everyone.

[Bored chemist]

You seem to have muddled up the ideas of lawyers and morality.

[Petrochemicals]

I repeat My only comment is that we were told about this vaccine in March so why the delay. 40,000 people have die in UK just because the testing was following some legalistic H&S procedure!!!! 
Of course the vaccine must be checked out but not by young volunteers as lawyers can pretend they were denied the opportunity of becoming the next US president.  Volunteers should all be 80+ years and healthy and make a written statement in front of a doctor and a relative that they wish to volunteer to test the vaccine. |No  problem of lawyers trying to claim lost opportunities as they are one foot in the grave anyway and we should all thank them so much for risking their lives for the common good of everyone.

Dignitas
Thalodomide
Inject bleach(don't)

20000 died from flu with a vaccine a few years ago.

[evan_au]

the testing was following some legalistic H&S procedure!!!!

With this "legalistic testing procedure", Pfizer claims 90% effectiveness and good safety
- but the detailed figures are not released yet - all we know is that around 90 people in the test group fell ill with COVID-19. That implies that only 10% of them were in the vaccine group (50% would have received vaccine, and 50% received placebo).
- Today the Russians came out and said that their vaccine is 92% effective. We haven't seen their detailed figures either, but maybe they just didn't bother rounding off to the nearest 10%?

This vaccine work is ground-breaking for both its speed and effectiveness  - the US FDA was willing to approve any vaccine with > 50% effectiveness!
- And they have relaxed some of the usual legalistic rules - for example allowing combined Phase 2/Phase 3 trials, and there are live-virus challenges occurring in humans.

I understand that there has never been a successful vaccine against a corona virus in humans (there was one in animals). There were some candidate vaccines tested against the original SARS, but apparently the vaccine made the disease worse in patients. That is why very careful vaccine testing is necessary.

[alancalverd]

Acsin:

we were told about this vaccine in March

Who we, and what exactly were you told?

By mid-March the RNA sequence had been decoded and several laboratories began to investigate the possibility of producing a safe, stable, effective and persistent vaccine that could be manufactured in quantity and delivered in a form for immediate injection. Knowing this would be a long process, other laboratories and hospitals were tasked with investigating methods of prevention and possible treatment with existing pharmaceuticals, in the hope to limit the spread and impact in conjunction with effective track, trace and quarantine.

My own research ethics committee and others were approached with a view to fast-tracking clinical trials of various treatments and vaccines once safety had been established. Government incompetence ensured that the disease was not contained and no effective treatments were found.

Once you have a vaccine that seems to be safe in animals, you need to establish safety and tolerable dose in fit human volunteers. Since the normal course of the disease is around 30 days, we are now around 60 days from discovery and hopefully have produced some antibodies without killing anyone (which is something of a "back to the drawing board" outcome).

Now you need to trial the vaccine against placebo, because we know that there is evidence of spontaneous recovery or even inherent resistance to infection. Problem is that 20% of those infected require hospitalisation, so a direct challenge with live virus is not immediately an ethical "go". So we need to release a lot of volunteers into the community, half with placebo,  and study their infection rate. But by the beginning of June we only had about 100,000 confirmed infective cases and most of them were playing by the rules and quarantining, so the probability of one of your trial volunteers contacting a spreader by chance, was very small indeed, thus making the statistical analysis of the trial a real needle-in-haystack job   

In other words, even if we'd had the ultimate magic bullet in a test tube at the beginning of March, nobody would have known if it was worth manufacturing until some time in September. And then the real work begins.

How stable is it? You can't release a commercial batch without a use-by date.

How resilient is it? You have to have realistic packaging and storage specifications

How consistent is it? You have to produce 70,000,000 identical shots

And how long does the immunity last? 70,000,000 repeat shots every month will cripple the economy because everyone will  be involved in making, distributing, dispensing, or queuing up for the next shot.

Frankly, it's a bloody miracle that anyone has made a proven 90% effective vaccine in 11 months from the first UK case, particularly as HM Govt spent the first 3 months pretending it wasn't a problem.  Now "all we have to do" is to get it into production, find some way of dispensing it, and kill the lawyers (because someone is bound to complain).

[acsinuk]

Would it not be better for the government to acknowledge the NHS has a problem and advise them to do their best [ as they are doing] and accept that there is no permanent solution at present.  By all means we should wear a mask in public areas, keep our distance and wash hands thoroughly but no draconian measures should be used. Just rely on peoples common sense.

[Bored chemist]

Just rely on peoples common sense.

LOL

[alancalverd]

acknowledge the NHS has a problem and advise them to do their best

The problem faced by the NHS is, as always, caused by government advice, which is never welcomed by professionals.

Fortunately it seems that the government is stepping down (he was seen leaving 10 Downing Street today with a cardboard box ) and there is a possibility that someone with functioning neurones will be operating the Prime Minister in future. The mystery is what the other 649 Members of Parliament are paid for.   

[acsinuk]

They are all on furlough taking an early break waiting for Boris to ban Christmas totally.  Latest draconian measure is everyone is to stay in bed for 10 days and not allowed any food or drink.  If that does not work then we could try to ban breathing???

[alancalverd]

If that strategy is tested on politicians, I'm all in favor of it. They have after volunteered (indeed fought) to represent us, so who better for the Phase 1 trial?

[acsinuk]

Yes, latest expert who developed the vaccine is that if everyone is vaccinated it will be effective stall covid19 by summer provided it does not mutate.  Even if it does not mutate; we may need refresher jabs quite regularly. 
Trying to conquer this virus reminds me of king Canute sitting on the beach and ordering the sea not to come in.  Some cold/flu  viruses cannot be controlled by mankind yet and must be just accepted as natural without panic reactions.

[Bored chemist]

Trying to conquer this virus reminds me of king Canute sitting on the beach and ordering the sea not to come in. 

I take it that you do not know the actual story.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/King_Canute_and_the_tide

[Bored chemist]

Some cold/flu  viruses cannot be controlled by mankind yet and must be just accepted as natural without panic reactions.

This, you consummate idiot, is not a cold/ flu virus.

[alancalverd]

if everyone is vaccinated it will be effective

Good heavens! Who would have thought it?

[Petrochemicals]

Yes, latest expert who developed the vaccine is that if everyone is vaccinated it will be effective stall covid19 by summer provided it does not mutate.  Even if it does not mutate; we may need refresher jabs quite regularly. 
Trying to conquer this virus reminds me of king Canute sitting on the beach and ordering the sea not to come in.  Some cold/flu  viruses cannot be controlled by mankind yet and must be just accepted as natural without panic reactions.

Once everyone over 60 or vunerable is vaccinated they will let it go. Something like 10 15 million doses

[alancalverd]

But next year, another million people will be over 60, half of those vaccinated will probably have lost their immunity, and the number of people infected will have risen  from 0.2% to at least 20% of the population if they "let it go".

You can't negotiate a ceasefire with a virus.

Fortunately an unnamed minor civil servant seems to be less stupid than some of the contributors to this discussion, and has budgeted for 70,000,000 doses in the first round.

[alancalverd]

must be just accepted as natural without panic reactions.

Gradual suffocation and  death is not a panic reaction. Blustering and bullshitting  about "herd immunity" and "worldbeating systems" in front of the TV cameras, is.

[Petrochemicals]

But next year, another million people will be over 60, half of those vaccinated will probably have lost their immunity,

this point means

Fortunately an unnamed minor civil servant seems to be less stupid than some of the contributors to this discussion, and has budgeted for 70,000,000 doses in the first round.

Will have other other priorities than 20 to 30 year olds who don't really mind if they get syphilis or chlamydia. This vaccine from pffitzzer requires at least 2 doses, more than likely 4 to be sure, so there go your 70M doses

[Kryptid]

This, you consummate idiot, is not a cold/ flu virus.

Let's keep things civil.